A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; mortgage and TD rates tighten, unsold housing rises, consumers less glum, current account deficit shrinks, swaps stable, NZD dips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ trimmed some short fixed rates today. Details here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today, but this analysis may be useful about the pressures on TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

OVERSTOCKED
The housing market has a large hump of unsold stock to overcome over winter, putting downward pressure on house prices.

STILL GLUM, JUST A LITTLE LESS SO
The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence index rose two points in June, taking it to a level of 91.2. That’s a fairly modest rise after the sharp fall we saw last quarter, and leaves consumer confidence a fair bit below average levels (Note: A level below 100 indicates that there are more households who are pessimistic about the outlook than those who are optimistic).

SMALLER BIG DEFICIT
The deficit between what we earn overseas and what we spend remains at levels generally seen as too high but has reduced by more than economists were forecasting. The current account deficit came in at -$5.5 bln in Q1-2025 or 5.7% of GDP. A year ago it was -$6.7 bln or 6.6% of GDP.

MORE NET DEBT
The net international investment position (IIP) represents the difference between New Zealand’s assets and liabilities with the rest of the world. At Q1-2025, our international assets were $434 bln, and our international liabilities were $647 bln. The difference between the international liabilities and assets resulted in a net international investment liability position of $212 bln. Our net external debt was $217 bln at March 2025 or 50.4% of GDP, but more than the 48.4% of GDP a year ago.

NZX50 GIVES UP EARLIER GAINS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed today, up +0.3% for the past week. It is down -3.3% since the start of the year although up +7.4% from this time last year. Ryman and Gentrack lead gains, Port of Tauranga, and Summerset also climb. Mercury, Mainfreight, THL and EBOS retreat.

STILL AT THE TOP
For a fifth consecutive time, the NZ Super Fund has been awarded 'a perfect score' in the annual GSR (governance, sustainability, resilience) scoreboard published by international sovereign wealth fund experts GlobalSWF. But the assessors noted that for the first time, a number of wealth funds are de-emphasising these good governance standards

PASSED WITH NO KEY ISSUES
Saying it delivers a "critical service" for New Zealand, the FMA has blessed the NZX in its regulatory report card on the market exchange. This is in a stark contrast to the ASX, where there regulator is investigating them for "serious and repeated failures".

ACC UPDATES DUE IN OCTOBER
ACC is having some regulatory standards updated. These will widen what is covered (slightly), provide for faster decisions, update the reimbursement rates, and change the age scale in hearing loss assessment.

JAPANESE DATA WEAKENS
Japanese machinery orders fell more than -9% in April, a sharp reversal from March’s +13% surge. This was the weakest reading since April 2020, but about what was expected. Still, they remain +6.6% higher than year-ago levels. Meanwhile Japanese exports fell in May after seven consecutive months of expansion. A retreat was expected and what they got wasn't a sharp as those expectations. However, imports slumped -7.7% from a year ago and more than expected.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today with a suggestion of firmness. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. Notice it isn't falling. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.30% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.26%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bps at 4.65% but was down -2 bps at 4.60% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now down -3 bps from yesterday to 4.41%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now down -0.1% so far today on extended risk aversion. The ASX200 is unchanged so far in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.7% in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.3% at its open while Shanghai is also down -0.3%. Singapore has opened down -0.4%. Wall Street sentiment was not positive and the S&P500 fell -0.8% in Tuesday trade.

OIL FIRMER
The oil price is up another +US$1 from this time yesterday at just over US$75/bbl in the US, and just over US$76.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS
The carbon price is up +$1 at NZ$57.50/NZU on more trades. No bidders showed up at today's official NZU auction, so it failed. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$12/oz from this time yesterday at US$3381/oz.

NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday at 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at just on 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.9 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN FALLS BACK
The bitcoin price is now at US$105,028 and down -2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/-1.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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