A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, property & retail markets lackluster, new lending trends, wholesale energy costs low, RBA declines to cut, swaps stable, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE RISE OF "CHEEKY OFFERS"
There were more property market perspectives out today for June, this one by QV. They said the average residential property value declined -0.3% in Q2 this year nationally with Auckland values down -1%, and Wellington values down -2%. They also said they see increasing numbers of Auckland buyers are trying their luck by making "cheeky offers" low-ball in the current over-stocked market.

LINGERING PROPERTIES NEED LOWER PRICES & LONGER SALES TIMES
And TradeMe reported that asking prices are tumbling on their portal, as more sellers face up to market realism. 'Choice' is a problem for sellers, and they see properties taking longer to sell.

RETAIL STRUGGLING TOO
Our largest bank, ANZ, says its card transaction activity is showing a weak retail impulse. They said it fell -0.2% from May to be up only +1.5% from a year ago, far less than can be accounted for by inflation. They also noted that durables spending is recovering but apparel and hospitality spending remains soft, though the annual decline is easing for these categories. More here.

NEW LENDING STRONG I
Updated data from the RBNZ shows there was more new mortgage lending in May than in any month prior since July 2021. And it was split in the same way it has been for the past year 72% owner-occupied, 28% investor. Just a rising tide.

NEW LENDING STABLE
New lending for business is broadly stable and still about 70% of this is not related to property development.stable

NEW LENDING STRONG II
New lending for agriculture takes a season shift higher in May (and June) and this year it has reaceh a record high, driven by enthusiastic new lending to the dairy sector.

NZX50 DIPS
It's a down day on the NZX. As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down just -0.1% so far today, up +0.2% for the past week. It is now down -2.4% since the start of the year although up +8.6% from this time last year. Kathmandu, Meridian, Goodman Property, and Precinct Properties gain today but A2 Milk, Ryman, Mainfreight, and Infratil fall

EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
There will be another GDT Pulse dairy auction tomorrow morning. And if the derivates market is any indication, we should see a small rise again for the SMP product (+2%), and another fall or the WMP product (-2.5%).

VIRTUOUS ENERGY - LOW PRICES FROM DOMINANT RENEWABLES
We should probably note that wholesale electricity prices have been very low over the past few days with plentiful hydro generation, increasing geothermal generation, and normal wind generation. Coal generation has virtually vanished and gas generation is now very low. With energy produced from renewables at well over 90%, the carbon footprint for this sector has been unusually low.

EYES ON THE RBA
Check back at 4:30pm for our coverage of today's Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target decision. Most observers expect a -25 bps cut to 3.60%. But the financial markets aren't fully pricing that in, see a one-third chance that there will be no change. Update: The RBA refrained from pulling the trigger on rate cuts at its July meeting, assessing the inflation risks as too high. But it was a split decision. More here.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely firmer today, although not at the shortest end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.27% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.23%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.58% and was also up +3 bps at 4.55% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now up +5 bps from this time yesterday at 4.38%.

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The NZX50 is down -0.1% so far today in late trade. The ASX200 is up +0.1% in Tuesday afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.3% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.5% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore has opened up +0.5%. Wall Street ended its Monday session with the S&P500 down -0.8% on rising worries about how the Federal government is managed.

OIL FIRM
The oil price in the US is up +US$1.50 at just over US$67.50/bbl and just over US$69 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FIRMISH
The carbon price has has ticked up +50c to NZ$58/NZU on few trades today. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$29/oz from yesterday, back at US$3336/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday at 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are also holding at just under 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 51.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is unchanged from this time yesterday at 67.7.

BITCOIN SOFT
The bitcoin price is now at US$107,750 and down -1.6% from this tiem yesterday. Volatility has been low, now at just under +/-1.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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