A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; factory sector still contracting, RBNZ data update values the housing decline, T&G Global in play, tariff threats get even messier, swaps stable, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has trimmed its fixed rates today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Xceda has cut rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A 'VERY TOUGH' TREND WE DON'T NEED
Although the June BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index 'improved' in June the sector is still contracting. In fact it has done so in 23 of the past 27 months and that is the longest set of monthly contractions since the factory PMI data series started in 2002.

HOUSES WORTH LESS
The RBNZ released its March valuation of all housing stock (M10) and it revealed a timid first quarter. Despite the new builds in the quarter it only rose +$5 bln, up +$12 bln for the year. This valuation peaked in December 2021 and is now -6.8% lower now than then despite the new builds in between. If we apply StatsNZ housing counts to the valuation series, the fall per dwelling on that same basis is -13% from the peak.

NZX50 IN ANOTHER DIP
It's a another down day on the NZX. As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today, now up +0.3% for the past week. It is now down -2.5% since the start of the year although up +6.7% from this time last year. Ryman, Fletcher, SkyCity, and Briscoe lift, but Kathmandu, Turners, and EBOS fall

T&G GLOBAL IN PLAY
Having a cornerstone shareholder comes with risks and benefits. But if the cornerstone shareholder changes direction in its own business it can be very destabiliting. German agri-investor BayWa AG, the cornerstone investor in T&G Global (NZX: TGG) is rethinking its involvement in may of its investments, so T&G Global is now in play. It could easily end up being another NZX delisting.

ADDING ANOTHER GIG
Lawyer and professional director Mark Verbiest is now a director of ASB. From 2013 to 2022 he was an ANZ NZ director.

RECOVERY REDUX
Clearly, the wet tropical winter rain covering much of the country today is going to bring tough conditions to many, and have major regional economic impacts. Disaster recovery is becoming a regular project.Let's hope it doesn't overwhelm the principles or economics of insurance. The human cost is quite enough.

EXIT FEE CHALLENGE
A major Australian retirement property operator, Lifestyle Communities with over 4000 "home under management" has lost a court case challenging its exit fee charges. Its shares tumbled today in part because without that fee income questions are being raised about how it can meet its loan covenants.

STILL BULLYING
The latest salvo from the US on the tariff front is the threat of "35% tariffs on Canada". It isn't as tough as it sounds because it doesn't involve any trade within the USMCA (NAFTA) Agreement. But Trump isn't happy that Canadians are boycotting US goods and travel to the US. He is accusing the Ottawa government of some sort of secret conspiracy to cause the boycotts. He is also targeting Canadian dairy restrictions. None of this uncertainty is good for trade and the IMF is warning the consequences will hurt everyone.

SWAP RATES HOLD, MOST OTHER RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +4 bps at 3.30% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.67%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.56% but was down -1 bp at 4.53% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now up +3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.36%.

EQUITIES FIRMER EXCEPT LOCALLY
The local equity market is down -0.5% in late trade. The ASX200 is down -0.1% in Friday afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.1% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is up +1.3% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.5%. Singapore has also opened up +0.5%. Wall Street ended its Thursday session with the S&P500 up +0.3%, enough to be another record high.

OIL FALLS
The oil price in the US is down -0US$1.50 at just over US$66.50/bbl and just under US$69 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price has hovered around NZ$58/NZU on few trades today. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$15/oz from yesterday, back at US$3333/oz.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up a net +10 bps from this time yesterday at 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at just on 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we have firmed +40 bps to 51.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up a net -20 bps from this time yesterday at 67.8.

BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is now at US$116,460 and up +4.7% from this time yesterday and a new record high. Volatility has been moderate, now at just on +/-2.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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