A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes; rents slip, retail remains sluggish, grocery prices up 2.1%, service sector drags, swaps stable, NZD stays soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today other than FMT have reduced their carded rates by -25 bps. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Only one small cut from the Heretaunga Building Society today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MORE HOMES RENTED - AT LOWER PRICES
The national median rent declined by $5 a week in May compared to April after almost 18 months of stagnation, while the number of properties newly tenanted was at a four year high for the month of May

JUST A SMALL STEP UP
Retail card spending lifted slightly in June, the first rise in four months, but remains sluggish. It was boosted by a lift in durables and apparel spending.

SETTLING IN AT 2%
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets increased slightly in June, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index showing an average +2.1% increase in what suppliers charged in June 2025, compared to a year earlier. In May the increase was +2.0% on the same basis. In June 2024 it was +2.7%.

THE SERVICE ECONOMY IS DRAGGING STILL
The services sector contracted for a fifth consecutive month in June and has seen only one month of 'minimal' expansion in the last 16, according to the latest BNZ-Business NZ services survey. That is enough for BNZ economists to now expect a -0.2% fall in GDP in the June quarter.

NZX50 STARTS WEEK WEAKER
It's a another down day on the NZX. As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% so far today, now down -1.0% for the past week. It is now down -3.3% since the start of the year although up +4.2% from this time last year. Ryman, Briscoes, Scales and Mainfreight lift while Gentrack, SkyTV, Mercury and EBOS decline.

SENTENCED
A former Auckland chartered accountant was sentenced to community detention for fraudulently using the Small Business Cashflow (SBC) loan scheme to get nearly $95,000 for himself. Howard Kane Taylor was sentenced in the Auckland District court on 11 July. He pleaded guilty to the 8 charges just days before his trial was due to start earlier this year. He has repaid all the moneys disbursed.

HEADS UP
We are expecting the June July REINZ report soon, probably tomorrow. We will have full coverage of the mid winter situation.

SELLING LOANS
Equipment leasing company, Speirs Finance, has successfully securitised $200 mln of leases by selling the paper to local and Australian investors.

AVOCADO TRADE RECOVERS
Rabobank reports that 2024 avocado production recovered well after the 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle damage, featuring rising exports to China and South East Asia. But 2025 is seeing sharply rising demand from Australia. In the early months of 2025 with export returns from January to April 2025 rising 162% year-on-year to 2,944 metric tons, it is being led by a +1,366-ton increase to that key Australian market. But there is still a long way to go before these export numbers repeat the levels of 2020 to Australia.

SINGAPORE SHINES AGAIN
In Singapore they said their economy was 4.3% higher in Q2-2025 than Q2-2024. Their GDP rose +1.4% s.a. in the three months through June. Analysts had expected the rise to be only +0.8% increase. Construction helped drive the June result, surging 4.4%. The Q1-2025 contract was revised to -0.5%. Apart from that Q1-2025 stumble, their expansion has been rising since early 2023.

MAY SHOWS APRIL WAS AN ABERATION
Japanese machinery orders didn't fall as much in May as anticipated (after a big dip in April), so they ended +6.6% higher than year ago levels.

CHINA RISES TO THE CHALLENGE
So far, the Trump tariffs or the uncertainty surrounding them have had no noticeable impact on China's exports. They came in at US$325 bln in June, up +5.8% from a year ago and up +$9 bln from May. This was better than expected. Imports were also little-changed, up +1.1% from a year ago, slightly softer than expected. The main impact of the US tariff war against everyone is that China is benefiting as the US makes enemies everywhere. The details by country are here.

SWAP RATES HOLD AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.29% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.36%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.67%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.59% and was up +2 bps at 4.55% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.41%

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is down -0.5% in late trade. The ASX200 is essentially unchanged in Monday afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.3% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open while Shanghai is up +0.5%. Singapore has also opened up, by +0.2%. The futures market suggests Wall Street will open little-changed in their Monday trading.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is holding higher at just on US$68.50/bbl and just on US$70.50 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is still at NZ$57.50/NZU but trade are scarce. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is essentially unchanged, up +US$1/oz to US$3356/oz.

NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is down a net -10 bps from this morning at 59.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -15 bps at just on 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we have also slipped -10 bps to 51.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps from this morning, now at 67.5.

BITCOIN UP AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$119,600 and up +0.7% from this morning's open and a new record high. And that means it has just about touched NZ$200,000 today. Volatility has been low, now at just on +/-0.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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