A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; changing immigrant skills, record bank switching, salting away extra mortgage payments, Tower drops discounts, swaps slip, NZD rises, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A LOW SKILL CULL
There's been a big drop in the number of twenty somethings coming to NZ on work visas, mainly due to new work experience requirements.

PRICES HOLD UP, MILK FLOW DOES TOO
The dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought better results than the futures markets expected. SMP was up +1.7% and slightly better than the +1.5% expected. But the big mover was WMP which rose +1.5% when a -4% retreat was expected. The continuation of better prices will be something of a quiet relief in this industry. Meanwhile, ANZ is noting that June milk flows were strong. While June is the least consequential month in the new dairy season, it reinforces expectations that the 2025/26 season should get off to a flying start.

MORTGAGE SWITCHING HITS NEW HIGH
The latest Reserve Bank figures show that some 30% of 'new' mortgage commitments in the past month were due to customers changing loan providers.

CONSERVATIVE, NOT STRESSED
The RBNZ released its quarterly update for its mortgage market reconciliation (C35) and that confirms that mortgage interest payments have stayed little changed in the June quarter, holding at the same sort of elevated level for the past six quarters. For the year to June, that was $22.6 bln in interest paid on housing loans, close to the all time high. Perhaps interestingly, this has not deterred borrowers from staying well ahead of their minimum scheduled repayments. In fact in the June quarter borrowers made their $7.5 bln in scheduled repayments, and topped that up with another $4.6 bln in excess payments. Paying off mortgages faster is a real thing (rather than spending it on consumption) and that June level was easily the most, ever. (The previous high was +$4.4 bln extra in June 2022.) This is not a sign of borrower stress, even if it could be construed that borrowers are acting more conservatively due to the "current situation". Early repayment levels like this give banks a headache - they need to find a new home for those funds.

TOWER WITHDRAWS MULTI-POLICY DISCOUNT OFFERS
General insurer Tower said it will discontinue multi-policy discounts. CEO Paul Johnston says the risk remains that customers might not receive the correct discounts. Falling foul of the regulatory risk from a mistake in offering these discounts has cost many other insurers dearly, on both side of the Tasman. Just easier to dump the offer.

NZX50 DOWN AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is another -0.8% lower today, now down -0.2% from a week ago. That makes it down -2.6% since the start of the year although it is still up +2.5% from this time last year. The biggest gains are by SkyCity casino, Sky TV, Kathmandu, and Heartland. Gentrack, Oceania, Infratil, and Channel Infrastructure all decline

ALL HAT, NO CATTLE?
The US has said it has agreed a 15% tariff deal with Japan (a notable level lower than the arbitrary 25% previously imposed). But it supposedly requires Japan to water down its standards for rice imports and open their markets to US cars. Both of those requirements show a distinctly naive understanding of Japan. Very likely they will drive an anti-US sentiment by consumers there mirroring what is happening in Canada. Japanese investors loved the deal - for Japan. boosting the Nikkei225 +2.2% at its opening.

KEEPING IT TIGHT-ISH
In Australia, prudential regulator APRA has decided it will not change its standards after a review that contemplated a reversion to earlier, easier standards. But the tighter standards will stay after the review of domestic and international financial conditions and risks. They are especially aware of the risks of "higher credit growth and leverage, higher house prices and often more risky lending, such as high debt-to-income and investor lending".

STALLING
Staying in Australia, economic growth momentum is leaking away. At least, that is what the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading indicator data shows. For them, the main drag coming from commodity prices, consumer and business sentiment, and total hours worked.

SWAP RATES LOWER
Wholesale swap rates are likely lower today on global trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -4 bps at 3.22% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 1.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.57% and down -1 bp at 4.54% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 4.36%

EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The local equity market is down a sharpish -0.9% in late Wednesday trade. And that is all to do with F&P Healthcare's -1.6% drop today on a company-released review. Their Melbourne presentation to analysts there clearly didn't go down too well. However the ASX200 is up +0.6%. Tokyo is up +3.2% in early trade today on the US-Japan 'deal'. Hong Kong is up +0.7% at its open and Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore has risen +0.3%. Wall Street closed limp in its Tuesday trade, up just +0.1% on the S&P500.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price in the US is unchanged, still at just under US$65.50/bbl and just under US$69 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE DOWN
The carbon price is now down -$2 at NZ$56/NZU but still with very low volume. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$32/oz to US$3422/oz.

NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday back at 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are a little firmer at just on 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are als up +10 bps at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 67.4.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$119,082 and up +1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest, now at just on +/-1.5.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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