Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
CLAMPDOWN ON UNPAID FINES
Local bailiffs are now trialling handheld devices which scan the number plates of parked cars, and determine whether the owners have overdue court fines or reparations. If they do, the car may be clamped or towed away. No doubt fees will be required to release the impounded vehicles, on top of paying the fine that caused the clamp.
NZGBs POPULAR STILL
We missed updating you on yesterday's Government bond tenders. All up $450 mln was offered in three maturities. They attracted 114 bids worth a bit over $1.5 bln. Forty bids were successful. Interestingly, the yields achieved in each maturity were almost exactly the same as in the prior equivalent event, one of which was only two weeks ago, and one was six weeks ago.
FARM GATE PRICES MOVE UP
While it may not be being driven by market demand, there are supply issues for livestock processors both here and in some other markets. And that is pressing cattle and sheep prices up. Even venison prices, which have been moderate but stable for a long time are rising again. Essentially European supply constraints are behind rising prices to farmers here.
NZX50 EATS AWAY AT WEEK'S LOSSES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is +0.4% firmer today, although down -0.2% from a week ago. That makes it down -1.6% since the start of the year although it is still up +3.7% from this time last year. Heartland, Infratil, Hallenstein, and Oceania lead the gainers as Gentrack, Vulcan Steel, SkyCity casino, and Sky TV decline. Market heavyweight is up +0.2% today for a net weekly dip of -0.3%.
WATER WATCH
You may like to know that Auckland's water storage dams are now 100% full (actually 99.68% full). Normal for this time of year it is 82.7% full. Nationally, the hydro lakes are at normal levels in the South Island, 50% higher than normal in the much smaller set of North Island hydro lakes.
FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a new service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au
SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.19% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is little-changed at 4.35%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.71%. That takes it move up to +7 bps in the past week and the most significant move in any direction in over three months. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.62% and unchanged at 4.57% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is also unchanged at 4.39%
EQUITIES QUITE MIXED
The local equity market is up +0.5% in late Friday trade, much better than the other markets we follow. However the ASX200 is down -0.4%. Tokyo has settled back -0.6% after its earlier remarkable run up. Hong Kong is down -1.0% at its open and Shanghai is down -0.4%. Singapore has fallen -0.5%. Wall Street closed essentially unchanged in its Thursday trade on the S&P500. But that is still enough to claim a record high daily close.
OIL FIRMS
The oil price in the US is up a bit less than +US$1, now at just under US$66.50/bbl and just under US$69.50 for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STAYS DOWN
The carbon price is holding at NZ$56/NZU but still with trades very scarce. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$19/oz to US$3360/oz.
NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday back at 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just on 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 51.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 67.4.
BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$116,277 and down -3.2% from this time yesterday. All the fall has occurred since 7am this morning. Volatility has been modest, now at just on +/-1.5.
Daily exchange rates
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
19 Comments
Labour chronically snivelling again because the left won't accept that anyone's ever responsible for their own actions & accountable for the consequences (& net taxpayers should just keep funding their fines shortfall)
"With a new trial for court bailiffs to seize cars if their owners haven’t paid fines, the Labour Party says innocent families could be left “stranded”.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360769853/parked-car-licence-plates-get…
They may well be too. Especially if the vehicle happens to be “borrowed.”
Always thought fines should be proportional to income. Just seems logical as low income earners are massively disadvantaged by even small fines. So much so there is little incentive to be law abiding.
Law is a poor arena in which to make judgements sited on consideration of equality. In fact, it is very difficult to find precedent, in the colloquial free world, in which it actually sought to be so. Ages ago when I first started work I encountered one of the few QCs then in our town who advised to never forget in law there is much that is legal but immoral and moral but illegal. Endeavouring to establish though, any law tiered and tuned to social circumstances is akin to creating a minefield. That is why any discretion has to be left to the judges when sentencing..
Comment of the year?
Logically then, there should be more incentive for lower income earners to be law abiding...
Some people logically think income tax rates should be proportional to income (ie the same % for all income levels), instead of progressive tax envy theft...
The Vampire Squid (Goldman Sachs) and BNY Mellon have jointly launched a pioneering solution enabling institutional investors to access digital tokens that mirror the shares of money market funds (aka MMFs). This development marks a significant advance in Wall Street’s integration of blockchain technology with traditional financial assets, enabling enhanced utility, efficiency, and liquidity within the $7.1 trillion MMF sector.
For investors, this enables:
- 24/7 trading enabled by blockchain removes traditional market hour constraints, allowing for near-instant settlement of MMF shares and improved liquidity management.
- Tokenized MMF shares can be more easily deployed as collateral between financial intermediaries, reducing friction in processes such as margining and settlement.
- Unlike stablecoins, tokenized MMFs continue to provide a yield to holders, making them valuable for hedge funds, pension funds, and corporates seeking both security and returns.
- The blockchain ledger enhances transparency, auditability, and automation within fund administration and compliance
https://www.goldmansachs.com/pressroom/press-releases/2025/bny-goldman-…
Trumps media stand-up at the Fed Reserve building didn't look good for trump. He and Powell had a terse exchange with Powell coming straight back at him
In my opinion Trump and Powell are both fools. 70 + year old men on ego trips who are unwilling to give up their respective hold on power (one political, one financial).
Go and play some golf and spend some quality time with the grand kids already. If you haven't achieve what you want to professionally by the time you're 70, its time to give up.
In my opinion too the situation illustrates rather nicely, with concern to behaviour in the high echelons of American public office, the old saying viz - in America it’s wonderful because anyone born there can grow up to be president and if you don’t grow up, you can be vice president.
Yeah don't get my started on the likes of Pelosis etc - but I see Mitch McConnell has decided to retire next year at 83/84 despite not knowing what day of the week it is for the past decade but living off the American taxpayer.
Term limits are so desperately needed there.
The Palace of Versailles was synonymous with royal profligacy and an out-of-touch elite. It stoked resentment among the public and became a rallying symbol for political change.
Renovation of the Fed's Eccles Building is costed at $2.5 billion - up from an initial estimate of $1.9 billion. This naturally leads to mockery and it being called “the new Versailles.” It's fair to say the Fed is disconnected from economic hardships faced by ordinary Americans and needs to think about the appropriateness of such lavish investment in institutional headquarters.
The Federal Reserve is now pushing the idea that too much economic thinking includes outdated information on how Fed policy influences banks and the economy. They believe educators should abandon the “money multiplier'.
Well, when you and I studied economics a million years ago, M2 and monetary aggregates generally seemed to have a relationship to economic growth… that classic relationship between monetary aggregates and economic growth and the size of the economy, it just no longer holds… so something we have to unlearn, I guess.
- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair
Maybe the Fed needs to consider that the money multiplier is negative because of a balance sheet recession and people not borrowing and spending like drunken sailors.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/page-one-economics/2021/09/17/t…
Tend to agree: the money multiplier works like equity leverage & margin calls, can be in both directions
I think Richard Werner's description makes more sense. Werner argues that the process described by the money multiplier - where each initial deposit leads to several cycles of lending across the entire banking system - is not how money is actually created. His research found no empirical basis for the idea that banks first acquire deposits, then lend them out based on a reserve fraction.
Instead, Werner promotes the "credit creation theory," where each bank can create new money ‘out of nothing’ by simply crediting a borrower's account when issuing a loan. This view is now supported by empirical studies and publications from central banks such as the Bank of England. In Werner’s view, loan growth is determined by the demand for credit and banks’ willingness to lend, not by the current level of reserves or deposits. The supposed “multiplier” causality is reversed: loans create deposits, which then influence reserve demand - not the other way around.
The Tesla debacle will be studied at MBA schools for years to come.
If you are the darling of a segment of the left (environmentalists), taking a hard line stance aligning with the right will alienate your buyers, and those with choice will abandon you.
If you then break ranks with the current spiritual leader of the right, your new found allies will do the same.
Ketamine is a hell of a drug
The roots start earlier. The Cybertruck was Teslas first truly Musk conceived model, and it's an unmitigated failure. Too gaudy to appeal to traditional customers, and not a good enough truck to win over right leaning truck buyers. Tesla built a bespoke assembly line for it in anticipation of 200,000 unit sales a year and this year they're on track for 10-15% of that.
And yet, the share price is still overvalued by about 1000% or so.
It Whaleoil, but with smart people and actual consequences.
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