A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; business sentiment still weak, dairy prices hold, Kiwibank gets OK to sell shares to raise capital, life expectancy rises, swaps soft, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Gold Bank Finance cut its 1, 2, 4, and 5 year TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SOME WORRYING SIGNS
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows a renewed slump in expected activity for both the construction and retail sectors: 'It appears residential builders are giving up on a recovery any time soon', the ANZ economists said. Overall this survey recorded a minor (and probably non-meaningful) rise. Inflation indicators in the survey were "benign".

DAIRY PRICES HOLD
The overnight dairy Pulse auction of SMP and WMP brought better-than-expected prices for WMP with them rising back towards mid-June levels and ending the intervening weak period. SMP prices also rose, but very much as signaled by the derivatives market.

WHAT SHARE WILL $500 MLN BUY?
The Government has given Kiwibank permission to sell a stake of its business to local private investors in a $500 mln equity raise. Given that Kiwibank's balance sheet shows the Government's investment is about $3 bln, this equity raise amounts to about a 15% share although it may be larger given the risk of joining as an equity holder where the dominant investor can impose all the director priorities.

FORAN'S REPLACEMENT REVEALED
Partially listed but government controlled Air NZ announced the appointment of Nikhil Ravishankar as its next CEO, succeeding Greg Foran who steps down in October after almost six years in the role. Ravishankar is currently Chief Digital Officer at the company.

WHEN YOU RETIRE AT 65 YOU MAY NEED INCOME UNTIL YOU ARE 90
Data released today shows that the average male life expectancy at birth rose to 80.1 year in 2024, the highest ever. For females it is about 3 years longer. For 35 year old it is 81.4 years; for a 45 year old it is 81.9 years, for a 55 year old it is 82.9 years, and for a 65 year old it is 84.4 years. If you make it to 80 as a male, you can expect to live to at least 88.6 years. For females it is 89.9 years. These are averages of course and half the population will live longer.

NZX50 EASES LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is +0.3% higher today, up +1.4% from a week ago, and down -0.7% since the start of the year. It is up +4.7% from a year ago. Gains by Fletcher, Vector, Turners, and Meridian; Vulcan, Heartland, Kiwi Property, and Mainfreight all fall

LOWER LOSSES
Synlait Milk said it expects a final FY25 result of underlying EBITDA of at least $100 mln (compared to $45 mn in FY24) with breakeven underlying NPAT (compared to a -$60 mln loss in FY24). Note the use of the term "underlying". Actual net loss after tax could be as high as -$40 mln. The company is targeting a closing net debt balance of $300 mln. As at January 2025 it had debt of $440 mln. The actual results will be released on September 29, 2025.

LOW INFLATION, NO POLICY CHANGE
In Singapore, their central bank equivalent, the Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its policy stance unchanged in today's update, maintaining the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) band after easing in its last two meetings. They expect GDP growth to slow in th erest of this year after a strong first half. Cost pressures are expected to stay contained in the near term, with MAS core inflation projected to rise slightly later in 2025. For the year, both core and headline inflation are forecast at 0.5–1.5%.

DISINFLATION (A REDUCTION IN THE RATE OF INFLATION)
In Australia, and led by a fall in services inflation, overall CPI inflation dropped to 2.1% in Q2 2025 from 2.4% in the prior two periods, marking its lowest figure since Q1 2021 and below forecasts of 2.2%. June inflation alone was only +1.9% above year ago levels. Today’s data removes any awkwardness posed by inflation remaining too high for the RBA and they are now very much more likely to cut by -25 bps on August 12 to 3.60%.

FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a new service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au

SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates are likely softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was back down -1 bp at 3.19% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at just over 1.74%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.54% and down -5 bps at 4.52% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is down -7 bps at 4.33%

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now up +0.2% in late Wednesday trade. However the ASX200 is up a stronger +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened unchanged (and no doubt shaken). Hong Kong is down -0.3% at its open and Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore has opened down -0.2%. Wall Street ended down -0.3% on the S&P500 in Tuesday trade.

OIL RISES AGAIN
The oil price in the US is up another +US$2.50, now at just over US$69/bbl and just over US$72.50 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is still at NZ$56.00/NZU on more but still minor trading levels. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$11 from yesterday at US$3327/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is holding at 67.3.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$118,010 and down -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low, at just on +/-0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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