Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
FOMO OF THE OTHER KIND
Barfoot & Thompson's sales transaction levels were up in July and to a four year high (for a July) but average prices were slightly lower. Their stock levels were at a 17 year high. Sellers are rushing to list before prices fall even more.
MORE, AND MORE COMPLEX
The FMA says there’s been a rise in the number of misconduct cases related to suspected mortgage fraud - and they’re getting more complex.
LONGER, BUT NOT MUCH LONGER
Latest monthly RBNZ figures show that in June there was a marked shift in preference to one-year fixed mortgages, particularly for investors.
DAIRY FARMERS ARE BORROWING AGAIN, AND IN A BIG WAY
RBNZ data for new lending in June shows it strong for the rural sector. In fact since this C70 series started in April 2021, June 2024 was a record high, adding +$2.1 bln in the month, 70% of it for dairy sector lending.
NZX50 LANGUISHING
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is starting the week little-changed, -0.1% from Friday, down -1.4% from a week ago, and down -2.6% since the start of the year, but up +3.8% from a year ago. There are gains today by Tourism Holdings, Mercury, Goodman, Oceania. These are offset by declines for Gentrack, Fletcher, Infratil, and Vulcan Steel
FINTECH PUSHES NEW BENEFITS
British digital fintech Revolut operates in New Zealand, and has now launched 'Plus' benefits - higher exchange/transaction limits for international transactions, comprehensive purchase protection insurance, and no Revolut ATM withdrawal fees (up to $350 per month) with no frequency limit.
TO BE SOLD TO THE IRISH?
Multiple offers to restructure meat processor Alliance Group are firming up with an Irish bid from Dawn Meats a likely front runner. The Dawn Meats offer is said to be for 70% of Alliance.
TOP END WORRY
In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's inflation gauge survey result brought an unwelcome surprise. It surged +0.9% in July, the steepest rise since December 2023 and a sharp rebound from June’s modest +0.1% increase. The RBA is unlikely to be impressed because even if inflation is within range it seems to be testing the upper end of that range and a rate cut could well push it up out-of-range. Still, financial markets are pricing in a full -25 bps cut for Tuesday, August 12 when the RBA next meets. And they have priced in two more by the end of 2025. At this time, given inflation is proving harder to lick, that seems unlikely. And in turn there could be many disappointed market traders - and mortgage holders - as the year unfolds.
FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a separate service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au
SWAP RATES FALL
Sovereign interest rates are falling on the bad US data over the weekend. That suggests risk aversion is extending into the new week. Wholesale swap rates are likely lower today and across the whole maturity range, all on these global influences. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.19% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at just under 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.50% but down -8 bps at 4.45% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from this morning at just over 4.25% but that's a net -13 bps fall from Friday.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, EXCEPT SINGAPORE
The local equity market is now down -0.1% in late Monday trade. And the ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.6%. Hong Kong is up +0.4% at its open and Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore has risen +0.7% however. Wall Street is signaling in after hours futures trading that it will open tomorrow up +0.8%, a bounce after Friday's sharp -1.6% fall.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is holding at just over US$69/bbl. And the international Brent price is still at US$69.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
The carbon price rose +$1 today to NZ$57/NZU but on few trades. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$9 from this morning at US$3352/oz.
NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is down another -10 bps from this morning, now at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding lower at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down at 67 and a -10 bps retreat from this morning.
BITCOIN STAYS DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,801 and up +0.6% from this morning. Volatility has been low, at just on +/-0.7%.
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30 Comments
Given Richard Werner's recent awareness from the Tucker Carlson interview, thought it was interesting that he recently challenged the propaganda that Russia's economy is in tatters. Werner thinks to the contrary and believes that Russia is thriving. He points to his own 2015 article claiming that the sanctions on Russia would strengthen its economy, which is what happened.
Werner thinks the UK/US media is full of baseless anti-Russian propaganda and cannot be trusted. Russia became the fastest growing economy in Europe at 4.3% GDP growth in 2024. Its GDP is now larger than Germany's in terms of purchasing power parity.
From his 2015 article:
The West’s sanctions against Russia may not only fail to change the Ukraine situation; they may well spur the country’s long-awaited structural transformation. If Russia successfully replicates the credit-guidance regime used by East Asia’s economies, while increasing managerial efficiency, yet another economic miracle is possible.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/are-sanctions-helping-russ…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-raises-2024-gdp-growth-fi…
Lol...what is Russias productive capacity being spent on?....drones, armour and munitions that are destroyed upon use and to date have provided no return. Yes you can expand money supply (in the short, perhaps even medium, term) but ultimately you need a return to cover the promised interest (not to mention principal)....what return is Russia receiving, apart from a high body count?
It's a good example how a raw figure like GDP can be meaningless without context.
If you spend money on a tank it it gets blown up, necessitating another tank, your GDP will look great. But has the money been well spent?
"...what return is Russia receiving, apart from a high body count?"
Well, how about just for starters - for the survival of their civilisation, and possibly even humanity itself.
Has it somehow slipped your mind, Frank, that it was the Russian civilisation that saved humanity's arse from the Nazis?
And all of this idiocy continues to this day after centuries, where the West has tried countless times to destroy Russia, simply because of an innate and insatiable greed.
Napoleon had a go too - both he and Hitler used Ukraine as their principal corridor of attack - both attacks ended very badly for the aggressors - this current lunacy will too.
The Nazi exclave that has been holed up in Ukraine since the early 1930s, and inspired by murderous lunatics like Stepan Bandera, has taken over Ukraine. They did so with the help of the US and the $5 billion stumped up to install a puppet regime and to be led by the deranged, cocaine-sniffing lunatic Western-puppet Zelensky.
Believe and parrot whatever Western propaganda-generated crap you choose, but one day very soon, I would hope you might summon up enough presence of mind to realise that you have been sucked into supporting a reinvigorated wave of Nazism that has a very real potential of ending in a nuclear holocaust.
How extraordinary this is when WW2 was hard fought by so many Kiwis, won at such a monumental cost, and yet we now witness such idiocy where a new wave of the very same Nazi scourge is being supported by Kiwis who are dumb enough to swallow this Russiaphobic MIC-generated crap.
These are all banker's wars, nothing more, nothing less. I would recommend you listen very carefully to Richard Werner's warning, rather than simply dismissing it in a state of Russiaphobic ignorance - please try to make this basic connection - our lives could very well depend on us all, en masse, heeding this extremely timely warning.
Werner has done us all a great favour and risks his neck in the process. Tucker joked about it during the interview, suggesting that he needed to find himself a food taster.
Tucker may need one too, as this interview has created enormous waves, in so directly and explicitly calling out this monumental ongoing theft by the private banking cartels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StTKHskg5Tg
Has it somehow slipped your mind, Frank, that it was the Russian civilisation that saved humanity's arse from the Nazis?
It was a combined effort, without foreign military aid particularly earlier in the war, the Russians would've been throwing rocks.
And the German war machine and economy was unsustainable.
As children, we struggle with nuance.
As adults, we come to learn the world isn't as black and white as our teachers led us to believe.
We must however proceed with caution to not go too far in the opposite direction.
"...earlier in the war, the Russians would've been throwing rocks.
Really, Pa1nter! - where on planet Earth did this fanciful notion arise from? - best I not answer that, perhaps - although I have a fair idea of the origin.
In June 1941, the Soviet Union had one of the largest standing armies in the world, with approximately 5.5 million personnel (active and reserve) in the Red Army. This included about 2.9 million active troops deployed in the western military districts facing Europe.
The Soviet Union had the largest tank force in the world, with an estimated 23,000–25,000 tanks in 1941, including about 12,000 in the western districts.
The Soviet Air Force had approximately 18,000–20,000 aircraft in 1941, including 10,000 in the western districts.
The Red Army had a massive artillery park, with over 67,000 guns and mortars in 1941, including heavy 152mm howitzers. Soviet doctrine emphasized massed artillery, giving them a quantitative edge.
The Soviet Union had a massive industrial base, producing 15,000 tanks and 15,000 aircraft annually by 1942, supported by the relocation of factories to the Urals.
Really, Pa1nter! - where on planet Earth did this fanciful notion arise from? - best I not answer that, perhaps - although I have a fair idea of the origin
Yeah, it's called an education. Even the Soviets (including Stalin) recognized the spot they were in and how crucial lend lease was to their survival. Over half a million vehicles. The most common mount for Katyusha was a Studebaker.
Not that Russias contribution was insignificant. But then again it also doesn't give them a leave pass for all time to invade their neighbors.
And the Nazi talk is just weird. Russia itself has issues with neo-nazis, and a fairly extensive and long (like back to the Tsars) history of anti-Semitism.
It's a dying global power (and not the only one) desperately trying to shore up it's Western boundaries. Only it totally hashed it's invasion of Ukraine, and Putin over-estimated the level of democratic decline in the West (which definitely exists). People just get to keep dying now, because Putins regime can't afford to walk backwards on it.
Also look up Battle of Nomonhan in 1939 when Zhukov and the Soviets comprehensively beat the Japanese in Northern China.
Before then Japan had wanted to Go North to take Siberia. But they realised the power of the Soviets and decided to Go South, and the rest is history.
Right on cue, Frank, this might help you understand how this programming works...
Quoted from this link...
https://globalsouth.co/2025/08/02/the-enemy-is-the-system-that-needs-an…
"The mechanism of oppression is self-perpetuating:
- This system isn’t just hostile; it’s defined by hostility. It requires an “other” – an external or internal enemy – to justify its existence, consolidate power, divert attention, and mobilize resources (often violently).
- Colonialism, imperialism, extreme nationalism, and certain forms of capitalism/oligarchy thrive on this need. They must constantly identify threats (real or manufactured) to maintain control and unity within their own structures.
The Trap of Reaction:
Movements seeking liberation often fall into the trap of becoming the mirror image of the system they fight.
- They define themselves solely in opposition, adopting its tactics (demonization, centralized control, suppression of dissent) and ultimately perpetuating the cycle of “us vs. them.”"
Thank you for noting this here, Phoenix - Prof Werner's words back in 2015 were prophetic, and this is just one example of his exemplary vision.
He is head and shoulders above every economist on the planet in courageously and explicitly calling out the perpetual grand theft from society by the private banking cartel, and the extraordinary free lunch this kleptocracy has been handed on a plate.
Russia and China kicked this nonsense into touch long ago, and hence their phenomenal success as economies. This is in spite of the enormous hurdles posed by NATOstan and the AAZ, in doing their level best to destroy both of their economies.
Cheers and regards
Col
Russia and China kicked this nonsense into touch long ago, and hence their phenomenal success as economies.
Without it's resource wealth Russia wouldn't have much of an economy. It has basically faultered developing industrially past about 1970. Outside of weapons, it produces little manufactured goods that are internationally competitive (and even customers for the weapons are drying up). Although less to do with banking and more about how badly it's been led going on centuries.
China has done well, but only after abandoning decades of bad planning, and having its own East Asian economic miracle, albeit significantly later than its neighbors. Whether it manages to not run out of steam like Japan remains to be seen, but it has many parallels, and has made some of the same mistakes, just bigger and faster.
I can smell the waft of Russiaphobia and Sinophobia from here, Pa1nter.
Clinging to a Cold War imperial mindset will only make things worse. Newsflash - the Soviet Union no longer exists, and neither does Communist China.
The Chinese model is an open-market-capitalist/socialist/Confucianist model, and an utterly unique and fascinating one at that.
The only real remnant China has of pure communism, that I can see, is their population’s inability to own farmland* – this is a legacy of the communist era. The problems of returning that vast country into private ownership would be insurmountable given the 1.4 billion population – I don’t see how the clock could be turned back.
* [Rural farmland is owned by rural collectives (groups of farmers in a village or township). Individual farmers or households are granted land use rights, not ownership. These rights allow them to farm the land, grow crops, or raise livestock. Under the Household Contract Responsibility System, farmers typically receive land use rights for periods of 30 years or more, which can often be renewed.]
The key is that China deployed a public utility central bank - this was the game changer, which came about after Mao's death in 1976.
It was introduced by Deng Xiaoping, a visionary who borrowed the public banking utility concept from the West. This reform led to the phase that took hundreds of millions of poverty-stricken people into middle-class-hood.
Deng succeeded in consolidating power to lead China through a period of reform and opening up that transformed its economy into a socialist market economy. He is widely regarded as the "Architect of Modern China"
Even more remarkable was the fact that this was all done with zero destructive inflation – so too were the monumental infrastructural programs, and all of this was accomplished by deploying the PBS (Public Banking Solution), creating wealth for generations to come.
The models were borrowed from the West before the private banking cartels destroyed them for us – now is the time for us to swallow our pride, to look back over there, and to borrow them back - IOWs, to return them to where they belonged in the first place,
China, apart from Vietnam, is unlike any other model in the world - I don’t classify that thriving country as communist either.
Communism is a dead duck anyway - only ~0.5% (down from ~30% in the 1980s) of the world population is governed by technically pure communist regimes.
My point is that as a threatening political force, communism is no longer the boogeyman (Putin’s words) that the West and NATOstan have always dressed it up to be.
With this in mind, please refer to the comment at 10:25pm.
Over and out.
Agriculture lending having a seasonal surge, but definitely higher than recent years. Worth comparing the new lending to repayments. It's a similar story with business lending overall - the last few years have seen the value of loan repayments exceed new loans. It's only interest added that is keeping the loan book growing. And, obviously, if repayments are exceeding new loans, that is clearly contractionary.
"Recent surges in property values have boosted the number of Australian millionaires to a global high, according to a report from Swiss bank UBS.
Australia now has the second-highest median wealth in the world at $US268,000 ($411,000), beaten only by Europe's Luxembourg.
But the proportion of wealth held in cash and deposits is the lowest in Australia at just above 10 per cent.
...one in 10 Australians have become millionaires in US dollar terms ($1.55 million)"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-04/property-boom-fuels-surge-in-aus…
So one in ten Australians are (paper) millionaires....and one in 8 households (one in six children) live in poverty.
Winning?
Link for your stat?... is the definition of "poverty" the usual UN/Left self serving % of median income (= "the poor will always be with us" no matter how much income they have) or a real absolute measure?
I linked the ABC report as of interest here & made no comment or implied anything about "winning". Its obviously a paper/ponzi wealth effect atm delivered by Oz -ve gearing & Super tax concessions & RBA now moving to low interest rates. So, its as real as current conditions which could change.
We use two poverty lines – 50% of median income and 60% of median income
The easiest way to reduce poverty is to reduce the median wage.
"The easiest way to reduce poverty is to reduce the median wage. "
? I last did STATS101 38y ago. In a normal distribution wouldn't % numbers of population at 50/60% median likely remain the same if median lowered or raised (that was my sarc point, I'm happy to be corrected).
It doesn’t have to be a normal distribution. In fact you’d think the fact that there is a minimum wage would mean it can’t be a normal distribution.
Thanks, I understand your comment better now.
I guess its as much an 'absolute measure' as RE values.
Their definition of poverty makes it almost impossible to prevent. I’m sure most people in Aus have access to food, housing, healthcare and education, no one looked to be starving last time I was there.
"no one looked to be starving last time I was there.'
All good then
Australia has the second highest minimum wage in the world, yet 1/8 are in poverty. Australia’s minimum wage would be more than the median wage in most other countries.
The only way to get rid of poverty with that definition is to flatten the wage curve. You can live a wonderful life without poverty and also without doctors, nurses, and any other professional that won’t bother studying to get the median wage regardless.
Oddly enough NZs wage spread was considerably more compressed in the past and we had doctors, nurses and all manner of other professions.
I don’t think it was as easy to migrate as it is now. Do you think we could lower Doctors wages and keep them now?
Sure if the entire world got together and made a pact it could happen. Unlikely IMO.
Its actually the bottom half of wages that create this supposed poverty (although it’s all relative to the top end too). To not have poverty an average person doing an average job with average experience should expect a similar pay packet to a noob doing an unskilled job badly or a bludger. Not my idea of nirvana.
Or the necessities could be provided (guaranteed) by the state ...as they were.
Welcome back Jimbo I have missed you
"Recent surges in property values have boosted the number of Australian millionaires to a global high, according to a report from Swiss bank UBS.
If there is any country to challenge the Ponzi narrative, it has to be Aussie.
The bigger they are the harder they fall.... many Japanese were rich before it all fell apart, there is no fool like an old fool....
The best thing Aussies could do is diversify their portfolio now to international diversified assets
Its like sailing, does not matter if you where good or lucky, if you suddenly find yourself ahead of the fleet, tack back and bank the gains
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