Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Updated: Gold Band Finance cut its rates for all terms 6 months to 5 years. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
WEAK RETAIL IMPULSE
ANZ reported that its card data shows overall card spending was up +0.5% in July (on a seasonally adjusted, 3-month average basis). Spending is up +2.6% nominal compared to the same time last year. All this needs to be seen in the perspective of 2.7% CPI inflation.
LESSONS LEARNED
Treasury says the $66 bln Covid-19 response shouldn’t be repeated. In a long-term briefing insight document they say government should let the Reserve Bank respond to economic crises and only intervene where necessary.
APPARENTLY THERE ARE GULLIBLE PEOPLE OUT THERE
The FMA has received multiple reports about a scam using fake endorsements from New Zealand politicians. The politicians’ names and images are being misused by scammers in fabricated news articles and deepfake videos to promote fake online investment schemes. Examples of fake news stories include claims that New Zealanders will receive “income” or “dividend” payments from Inland Revenue Department (IRD). The IRD has confirmed these claims are false. There is no pool of tax funds becoming available for distribution to New Zealanders. Claims that pension payments have been cancelled. These stories are designed to promote fear about the stability of New Zealand’s superannuation system. Claims that the government has significantly lowered the retirement age. Claims that the government or politicians are endorsing specific investment opportunities for New Zealanders.
BEEF PRICES ON A TEAR
Cattle prices are still rising based on demand for stock to process, up another +20c/kg next week. Prices will then exceed $8.40/kg (before you negotiate) for prime steers/heifers, a level unimaginable this time last year after they had been generally stable for about a decade at $5.25/kg with seasonal variation.
NZX50 RISES MODESTLY FOR A GOOD WEEKLY GAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% so far today. And it is up +1.6% over the past five days but down -1.0% year-to-date. It is sitting +5.5% higher year-on-year. Kathmandu, Channel Infrastructure, SkyTV, and Heartland rise; Gentrack, Summerset, Fletcher, and Ryman Healthcare fall.
A $1 MLN TAX SCAM
In Australia, a former KPMG employee, who is not a registered tax professional, is alleged to have orchestrated a large-scale tax fraud. This was done through lodging false tax returns for clients of the consulting firm and then redirecting the refunds into his personal bank account.
TALKING NICE WITH INDONESIA
New Zealand and Indonesia today signed a new bilateral arrangement in Jakarta "to deepen agricultural cooperation, strengthen trade links, and create new commercial opportunities for farmers and agribusinesses across both countries". At the WTO, New Zealand has called out Indonesia over agriculture protections in the past (2016). Now most countries are scrambling to shore up cooperation agreements.
HESITENT
In Japan, June data for household spending rose +1.3% from the same month a year ago, down sharply from a +4.7% increase in May. Forecasts were for a +2.6% rise. Households were worried about the impact of US tariffs and persistent inflation on consumer activity. On a monthly basis, spending plunged -5.2% in June from May, reversing May’s +4.6% rise and undershooting expectations of a -3% correction.
SCREWING AROUND
And staying with Japan, they agreed with the US on a 15% "reciprocal" tariff. But Trump issued an executive order to charge 25% in a pique of retribution for slights no-one can quite understand. The Japanese have called them out on it, insisting they honour the negotiated deal. Now Bessent and Lutnick have agreed to not only correct the "administrative mistake" but refund the capricious tariff charges. The Japanese are back with the same deal as the EU has.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower or stable today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 3.16% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is holding at 4.44% while down -4 bps at 4.41% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at just over 4.24%.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The local equity market is now up another +0.4% in late Friday trade. But the ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up a strong +2.2% in response to the US 'clarification' wrought from them. Hong Kong is down -0.6% at its open but Shanghai is unchanged. Singapore has opened down -0.4%. Wall Street rose in its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down -0.1% with a distinct lack of conviction.
OIL DOWN AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down another -US$1, now just under US$64/bbl. And the international Brent price is under US$66.50/bbl. The combination of weaker expected demand and rising supply is taking its toll. Oil and gas prices are the plaything of the rich and powerful; not a good reason to invest.
CARBON PRICE DORMANT
The carbon price is closing out the week at NZ$57/NZU because we there are no trades again. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$6 from yesterday at US$3386/oz.
NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday, now at 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps again at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just over 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +20 bps at 67.3.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$116,721 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/-1.4%.
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10 Comments
Overnight, the U.S. imposed significant tariffs on imports of one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, reclassifying them under a taxable customs code that was previously exempt from such duties. The most widely reported rate for these tariffs is 39%, driven by broader trade tensions and specific trade actions targeting countries such as Switzerland, a major global gold refiner.
Naturally, gold futures went north due to supply uncertainty and increased costs. So this week we have:
- The Fed publishing an article about gold revaluation
- A 10% move in gold mining stocks (as measured by the GDX proxy)
Make of it what you will.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-futures-hit-record-high-after-…
Make of it what you will.
If I was conspiratorial minded, I'd deduce that a big drive of the Trump presidency is to create frequent and large market jumps and dips by having the country's leader make decisions like a manic crack head.
The inner circle will be making like bandits.
The Trump admin has a fundamentally different position on gold compared to the past. Bessent has consistently advocated for its importance in the financial system and openly discussed proposals to monetize or revalue America's gold reserves, suggesting that leveraging gold more strategically could benefit U.S. fiscal policy. His position is rooted both in his personal investment philosophy and his public statements as Treasury Secretary.
"The top 10% largest US stocks now reflect a record 76% of the US equity market. This has officially surpassed the previous record set before the Great Depression in the 1930s. By comparison, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, the top 10%'s share was at ~73%. In the 1980s, this figure was below 50%. Meanwhile, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now represent a record 40% of the index’s market cap. We are witnessing history"
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1953508941561786433
Its one of those strange times where you feel like a fool if you've been conservative with your asset allocation, but then could also feel like a fool if you've been too aggressive as well.
You could be the fool if you jump in now given the numbers and propensity for history to repeat itself, but there's always someone keen on a punt.
I'm sorry, but it still blows my mind that Treasury would conclude that responding to a shock / crisis is a job for monetary policy and the central bank. This is proper clown show stuff. Completely unserious. A central bank can blow up asset prices or crash the economy. That's basically it. What a sophisticated toolkit.
Treasury are ideologically opposed to Government involvement in markets......their ideal world would have government confined to Parliament and the passing of legislation.
What a sophisticated toolkit.
Not at sophisticated as having a list of emergency jobs to roll out that you couldn't otherwise justify, to smooth over periods of economic contraction, and then have some other way to pay for it.
I suppose we could also spend well under our needs in good times and draw upon a reserve in times of emergency.
If we didn't already need more than we currently have.
Interesting that Ruth Richardson is now commenting everywhere about how right Treasury are and what a real Minister of Finance should do. She's been pretty quiet for the last 30 years.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/point-chevalier-home-unsold-after-several…
These guys were offered a cool 2.5m on under 600sqm now desperate for 1.0m. Thats what happens when you're sitting next to the truck unloading area.
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