Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank is the latest to respond to ANZ's home loan rate cuts. The Cooperative Bank did too, cutting all its fixed rates. And Westpac then pushed through their cuts, but just to three shorter fixed rates. More here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank cut all its TD rates from 30 days to 2 years - but not its 4.10% 6 month 'special'. Cooperative Bank did too. And so did Westpac. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
COOLER WITH NO SIGN OF HEATING UP
House prices continued to cool in July - particularly in Auckland. REINZ says buyers are in no rush to make a purchase as prices dip slightly and unsold listings available edge up.
SOME SELLERS ARE TAKING LOSSES
Cotality says more than one-in-10 residential properties sold in the June quarter sold for less than their purchase price. Worsde, more than one-in-six residential property sales in Auckland in Q2 was loss-making.
SCENE SETTING FOR A RATE CUT
Households still think inflation's higher than it is - but future expectations have settled. The latest quarterly Household Expectations Survey for the Reserve Bank finds that households reckon the inflation rate will be 4.0% in a year and 3.0% in two years - probably encouraging news for the RBNZ ahead of the latest OCR review
23% UNDERLYING INSURANCE MARGIN, BEST IN 6+ YEARS
Dominant general insurer IAG saw its New Zealand ;profits rise strongly in the year to June. They said that was because of lower claims costs & reduced natural disaster costs. But it was also because their premium income rose at the same time, up by +5.3% for their direct AMI, State and NZI business, boosting margins. The whole IAG Group gross written premium rose 'only' +4.3%. IAG NZ's annual insurance profit climbed to AU$605 mln on these margin rises. (For reference, Tower saw its premium income rise +9.8% in its half year to March compared to the same period a year earlier. But Tower has less than 20% of the business IAG NZ retail has.))
SUNCORP TOO
Suncorp New Zealand boosted general insurance profits by nearly 90%. Their NZ annual net profit after tax for general insurance hit $398 mln due to lower reinsurance costs, 'benign' weather and 'earn-through impact of previous year's pricing changes'. Their premium revenue rose +9.3% in New Zealand, turbocharging the net result.
NZX50 FIRMER AGAIN TODAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.6% so far today. It is down -0.4% over the past five days and down -1.7% year-to-date. But it is sitting +2.1% higher year-on-year. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.1% so far today. Gentrack, Turners, Kathmandu, and SkyTV rose; Spark, Hallensteins, Vista Group, and Tourism Holdings fell.
HOT DEMAND CONTINUES
There were 116 bids in the two NZGB bond tenders today for $450 mln. This bidders fronted up with almost $1.8 bln, so demand was its usual heavy. Both maturities resulted in lower yields from the prior equivalent events three weeks ago.
THE LONG LIST OF SYSTEMIC FAILURES BY BIG FINANCIALS JUST GOT ADDED TO
In Australia, one of their largest superannuation funds failed to tell regulator ASIC about investigations into serious member services issues, including incorrect insurance premium refunds for dead members. This is part of what ASIC is alleging in an Australian Federal Court suit launched today.
SANGUINE
And staying in Australia, their jobless rate eased to 4.2% in July, down from the four year high of 4.3% in June. The decline was driven by a drop of 10,200 in the number of unemployed, bringing the total to 649,600. Meanwhile, employment rose by +24,500 to a record high of 14.6 mln following a downwardly revised gain of +1,000 in June. Full-time employment rose by +60,500 while part-time positions fell by -35,900. Female participation hit a record high of 63.5%.
SPAM/SCAM WARNING
We have reports that scammers are using our journalists names in crude email scamming attempts. Yes, they use our personal names, but the email domain name is not interest.co.nz. Don't respond to any emails purporting to be from us if it doesn't end in @interest.co.nz. Our journalists never ask you to buy anything (we area free service).
SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be lower today across all durations on global bond market risk aversion. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.15% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.21%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.73%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 4.41% and also down -1 bp at 4.38% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from yesterday at 4.23%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE AGAIN, BUT TOKYO CORRECTS
The local equity market is now up +0.5% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened with a correction after the record run, down -1.3% and off its all-time high. Hong Kong is up +0.2% at its open and Shanghai is up +0.3%. But Singapore has opened down -0.2%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session marginally higher, up +0.3% but that is a recovery from mid-session blahs.
OIL HOLDS BY SOFTISH
The oil price in the US is down slightly from yesterday at this time, now just under US$63/bbl and holding its lower level. And the international Brent price is now just under US$66/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There were few trades today and the price held at $57.00. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$13 from this time yesterday, still at US$3365/oz.
NZD IN ANOTHER MINOR FIRMING
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday at 59.8 USc because of the continuing downgrade in the USD. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up a bit more than +10 bps at 67.3.
BITCOIN AT NEW RECORD
The bitcoin price is now at US$125,595 and up +3.4% from this time yesterday and to a record high. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/-2.1%.
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30 Comments
Kiwi Property Group just cracked $1.00 per share. First time since last October.
Intrinsically they're doing well but I guess the likely decrease in OCR will be helping
The bitcoin price is now at US$125,595 and up +3.4% from this time yesterday and to a record high
The following Bitcoin treasury company stock declines from all-time highs (as of today):
Microstrategy - down 46%
MetaPlanet - down 58.6%
NAKA - down 22.9%
Don't say I didn't warn you. There will be a few disappointed punters out there who won't be able to rationalize this. Timing is everything and seemingly unrelated to ratty's daily price. That being said, those stocks have seen some spectacular bumps.
There's some good discussions going on about whether those sort of companies that are mostly now shell BTC holding companies should be valued at much more than Net Asset Value
I haven't spent enough time working on it. You should look at Market Cap to BTC NAV Multiple (mNAV).
This should reveal how much of a premium investors pay versus the “raw value” of Bitcoin held. A high mNAV means investors are betting on future Bitcoin accumulation or strategic effectiveness.
I'm an old school ratty type and don't like 'paper Bitcoin' and I've stridently challenged the BTC celebrati making out like bandits / lining their pockets with this stuff. It's antiethical to what was established in the white paper.
What happens when BTC treasury companies can’t dump stock onto new suckers to buy BTC anymore?
Terrifying. Aussie politicians no longer want to do the hard policy work of growing the economic pie through productivity-boosting reforms to generate prosperity. They just want to goose the Ponzi and raid people's super for their pet projects. Vicious take by the AFR.
Immorally, governments are stealing from the future to bribe voters today. Governments are imposing higher debt and inevitably higher taxes on our children and grandchildren. These younger and future generations cannot vote to exercise a democratic right to avoid the financial burden being heaped on them.
Modern politicians with a penchant for central planning are dreaming up new ways to spend other people’s money – be it taxes or retirement savings. A former Labor operative likens them to “kleptocrats”.
Thankfully, AustralianSuper and Hostplus leaders pushed back on pressure to divert member capital to activities that did not meet rigorous risk-adjusted return benchmarks. Characters like Andrews see a honey pot to get their hands on.
This is the same infamous Andrews who almost sent Victoria broke after his nine-year premiership. Victoria’s gross debt burden is more than 200 per cent of operating revenues, among the highest of similar sub-national jurisdictions in the world.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/beware-of-labor-kleptocrats-blowing-…
Again I recount our experience in discussion, whilst in transit at AKL, with an American couple, she a district judge, he a corporate lawyer, at the time of the Obama presidency about whom they were totally opposed because of what they described as socialism of the worst degree. In their words that meant money that they had earned, saved and paid tax on would be taken from them and given to someone who had done none of those things. Thus an illustration of one feature of the great divide in society getting deeper by the day.
In the case of Aussie, I think the boomers' interests are less at risk than the hapless younger generations.
Meanwhile, under the NZ radar...
"Enabling KiwiSaver investment in private assets - summary of discussion document"
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/business/financial-mar…
An interesting aspect of this MBIE "initiative" is that the FMA is the superannuation industry regulator & AFAIK they have made no public comment (if anyone has such a link I'd like to receive it).
Historically, Superannuation trustees were long required to invest their members funds as a "prudent person", it's not obvious to me how private assets (with no available public scrutiny of their private business) could fulfil such an obligation.
I do wonder whether a political agenda is possibly driving this change?
Out of necessity any private superannuation scheme must be independently managed and stringently so. Examples such as newspaper magnate Maxwell pinching the lot have not been infrequent. An outfit I once worked for ran quite a productive scheme for its staff and as it became more successful there were mergers including other schemes and with the reserves involved it got to the point that had it, in its final form, been wound up there would have been almost half again left over once all members had been paid what was held on their account. So the management decided that that surplus should be invested in the company. Fortunately it didn’t progress, the deed was strong and so too were the trustees.
Back around the turn of the millennium there were a number of private equity & management buyouts overseas that were funded by raiding company's pension funds - didn't end well.
NZ private scheme funds track record over many years is generally very good however there's been a lot of windup & consolidation in master trusts since the 2016 legislative reforms - which now include having a FMA Licensed Independent Trustee for each restricted scheme.
We need a decent stock exchange. With lots - lots - of our companies listed. Hundreds.
How do we get to that?
no the effective route from seed to unicorn does not exist in NZ, the correct route is offshore sorry...
it does not exist because it cannot and the most effective path is offshore
listing for average listings involves to much compliance hence better to take back private
why do you think we need this we can speculate offshore?
Share markets are an exit strategy for early stage, not needed to finance average nz placeholders
Aussie Ponzi under attack by the mainstream media. The idea of Aussie being a 'home owner welfare state' is somewhat accurate.
Australia's income inequality is much worse than we think because official statistics ignore the income that home owners derive from their properties, leading economists say.
New research finds Australia's extremely favourable tax treatment of owner-occupied housing is fuelling the problem, encouraging Australians to plough money into housing at the expense of everything else — leaving those without housing even further behind.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-13/australia-is-a-homeowners-welfar…
"T he average full-time Australian worker is now bringing in over $2000 a week for the first time in history."
https://www.9news.com.au/national/average-australian-adult-salary-burea…
Excuse the cynicism here: Job growth centered in the public sector. Pvte sector job growth benign and businesses crying out for cheap labor. A nation of overpaid bureaucrats and migrants doing the grunt work for chump change.
And we’ve got Australian industry group analysis showing that the driving force behind the nation’s productivity slump is the collapse in private sector jobs. This is coinciding with an increase in public sector jobs at five times the normal rate. A whopping 82% of all jobs created over the past two years were government funded positions. The private sector contributing just 18%.
https://ipa.org.au/research/climate-change-and-energy/daniel-wild-on-th…
What could go wrong.
Nothing jobs for everyone!
The big short is moments away
You like mentioning a lost decade.
What if we just had 2 of them, and smoothed them over with credit......
then get long leveraged gold, you are debasing your currency to avoid sharp pain, but pain cannot be avoided
look at gold vs JPY over there lost decades...
need I say more
Pa!nter its a horse race, you are allowed to change horses at any time.... its not the horse you finish on, its the total you accumulate at the end of YOUR Race that counts for you, no one else tho... BONZAI
For ages houses where great to bet on, not so much now, move on to a better horse. place your bets.....
this is a great thing , now houses are for living in again, not speculation
My horse is low debt, minimal liabilities, and production of the things people might buy with gold. If that stops working, there's not much of an economy so I'd just live off the land and spend more time down the beach.
Any feverish gold market ends in most people getting sad. Like any feverish market really. I'll let others play in that sandpit. Maybe there'll be some bones to pick through, maybe that won't be a priority for me when the time comes.
this is a great thing , now houses are for living in again, not speculation
Yes, we have fairly good conditions for stagnant housing. And yet, the majority consensus here is for a return to conditions that aid appreciation. Weird.
Because most here still hold disproportionate bets that housing will rise faster then other assets they could hold, also many are a bit trapped by how hard it is to sell right now... they may know they are not in an optimal position but they did not get out at the first stop loss,
they get more expensive from here, the stop losses.
Most are not experienced traders that know to cut a loss early is better then cling to it hoping for breakeven,....... because at that point fear turns back to greed. You only get to learn from pain.
To walk into a bank as a numpty and borrow hundreds of thousands if not millions to invest in P house south auckland .....
It will make a great documentary one day
There is no back on track for Numptys
Because most here still hold disproportionate bets that housing will rise faster then other assets they could hold
Don't most here wish for it all to crash down?
Some of you guys are trying too hard to create imaginary adversaries.
We're going to get a crappy house market, a long with a crappy economy. If the economy is going well, people feel confident and then start bidding up houses. Separating one from the other is potentially impossible, at least in the short term.
Yep, for a moment I thought you were discussing NZ there...
More Aussie. But a great benchmark. Banking assets growing at 8-10% p.a but GDP only growing by 1.2%. Something's broken in the master plan. What's the point of debt-based growth if it's not reflected in economic growth?
Australia's major banks reported asset growth rates between 7.1% (annualised for gross loans & advances) and 6.9-9.5% for business lending specifically, for the year ending May 2025. The banking sector overall is consistently expanding assets at a pace close to 8-10% per annum.
https://kpmg.com/au/en/insights/industry/big-four-major-banks-australia…
But when she goes going to be one of the greatest shorts in History.... Sadly due to the AUD/NZD we go down with her.
It's broken because those in the know (banks), just like with CDO's and synthetic CDO's, make out like bandits until the house of cards tumbles down.
Properties abandoned because of mortgagee sales | Herald NOW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9eik6vOvvo
wow from herald
"The big 4 banks are taking a more social approach when it comes to mortgagee sales". As we already know, they are extending and pretending to prevent the mass sell-off.
URGENT sale required …..
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