A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; gender pay gap shrinks, bank mortgage market share changes, dairy prices dip, FMA sees more fraud, ASB bond issue wildly popular, swaps soft, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report here so far today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB cut its savings account rates by between -20 and -25 bps today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MODEST PAY RISES (BELOW INFLATION) EXCEPT FOR WOMEN
In an update of June labour market data, StatsNZ says median weekly earnings from wages and salaries were $1,380 in the quarter, an increase of +2.8% in the same quarter in 2024. Interestingly the median weekly earnings for men rose +2.6% while for women it was up +4.3% on the same basis.

SHRINKING GAP
StatsNZ also reported that the gender pay gap is now its least since they started measuring it in 1998. It is now down to "just" -5.2%, and the improvement from 2025 as 3 percentage points and "the first statistically significant annual decline noted since 2017."

SHIFTING SHARES
We have analysed the RBNZ Dashboard data for the banks' mortgage books as at June 2025. There are two definite winners in the long term battle for home loan market share, and one clear underperformer. These pressures partly explain why some banks are more competitive than others.

SLOW ADOPTION APPARENTLY NOT SLOW ENOUGH
The Imported Motor Vehicle Industry Association is saying that tighter emissions standards for the commercial vehicles their members import, "compounded by other rules", mean tradies will have less choice for replacement trucks. From November, all heavy vehicle imports must meet Euro VI-c or an approved equivalent such as Japan 2016 at entry certification. Seriously, 2016 standards in Japan are yet to apply here. "We back cleaner air and the use of modern emissions tech. But the changes don’t create more low-emission trucks, they just make them less accessible to the people who need them. The risk is operators hold older, higher-emitting trucks longer," the VIA says.

PRICE DIPS
There was a Pulse dairy auction overnight for both SMP and WMP and that delivered lower prices with the SMP price dropping -2.0% from the prior week's full dairy auction, and the WMP price down -1.1%.

INCREASE IN FRAUDULENT ACTIVITY
The Financial Markets Authority says it’s seeing an increase in fraudulent activity by financial advisers, especially when it comes to insurance and mortgages.

'SMALL, NICHE'
The Immigration Minister says there could potentially be 100 to 150 applicants in the first year as Government introduces new Business Investor Visa.

NZX50 SOFT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.3%. It is now down -1.2% over the past five days and down the same year-to-date. But it is now sitting +3.7% higher year-on-year. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has recovered +0.7% today so far. Channel Infrastructure, Mainfreight, Napier Port, and Fletcher advance, while EBOS, Oceania, Summerset, and Ryman decline.

SUPERSIZE ME
ASB said that its $100 mln offer of 5 year bonds "plus unlimited oversubscriptions at ASB's discretion" has closed, and they will tak $1.2 bln in this fundraising. This makes it twice as successful as their November 2022 4 year bond the last time they went to the bond market.

CAPACITY RECOVERY
After dipping slightly from April to June, the RBNZ's foreign currency intervention capacity moved back up close to its record high, now standing at $26.3 bln.

EYES ON NVIDIA
Markets were expecting Nvidia to report Q2-2025 results after the close of Wall Street. They haven't landed yet however. A lot of market and AI industry sentiment hangs on them not only beating market expectations, but also on their outlook commentary. You can watch here for the update.

TURNING UP
There was a big surprise in data released today in Australia on inflation. Their monthly indicator had fallen consistently to 1.9% in June. The RBA was relieved. But the July level came in at 2.8%, an unexpectedly large jump. There will be head-scratching. Higher electricity prices (+13.1%) are getting the blame.

LOWER PROFITS
Chinese industrial profits fell again in July, down -1.7% from a year ago in July. They fell -7.5% for SOE's but were up +1.8% for private businesses.

SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be a little softer today across the curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.02% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bps at 1.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.40%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was unchanged at 4.38% at the end of Tuesday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps from yesterday, now at 4.26%.

EQUITIES MARKING TIME
The local equity market is now down a minor -0.2% in late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.3%. Hong Kong is unchanged as is Shanghai. Singapore has opened up +0.1%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade up +0.4% on the S&P500.

OIL DIPS
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 at US$63.50/bbl and the international Brent price is just under US$67.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STILL HARD TO KNOW WITH SO FEW TRADES
There have been very few trades yet again today, in an extended dry patch, with the price dipping down to $55.90. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD A LITTLE FIRMER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$11 from yesterday at US$3383/oz.

NZD FIRMS MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday, now at 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +1 bps to 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is firmer at just over 66.3.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,157 and up +1.2% from yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just under +/-1.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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