Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ has trimmed its six month fixed rate down to ANZ's leading level. All rates are here. And remember, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank has trimmed almost all its term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
'ADJUST YOUR PRICE EXPECTATIONS DOWN'
Barfoot & Thompson's sales dipped slightly in August from July but are similar to the last two years. Meanwhile, stock levels remain unusually high extending the buyers market. Auckland's largest realtor says vendors holding out for prices to lift are missing out.
TRADE WITH CHINA & THE US GENERATES OUR LARGEST SURPLUSES
StatsNZ reported on our international trade for the June quarter that includes both goods and services today (Their monthly updates only relate to "merchandise trade" = goods.) This June quarter review shows that of the top ten countries we had a goods surplus with six of them, dominated by China. For services, we ran good surpluses with China and (surprisingly) the USA, but deficits with Australia and the EU. In fact the EU is the region where we run serious deficits for both goods and services. But our largest deficits are now with Singapore - essentially because that is where we buy the replacement Marsden Point refinery fossil fuels from.
MUCH BETTER TERMS OF TRADE
Our merchandise terms of trade rose +4.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June, rising faster from a +1.9% increase in the first quarter and beating market forecasts of another +1.9%. The improvement reflected stronger relative export prices, which edged up +0.2%, against a sharper -3.7% fall in import prices, partly driven by lower fuel and consumer goods costs.
AGILE BANKS LEAVE FINTECHS FLOUNDERING
The Commerce Commission is accusing the main banks of 'delaying' open banking. They say the major banks are 'locking in' their market power and hindering fintechs by adopting the open banking benefits themselves and leaving little advantage for others. They particularly point to BNZ's Payap which has broad appeal and has been rolled our with speed, leaving little room for followers, and little reason for customers to wait for the followers.
NZX50 FIRM AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% in a positive Tuesday session. And it is up +1.2% over the past working five days. It also up +0.4% year-to-date, the first time in a long time this comparison has been positive. And it is now up +4.5% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged today so far. Oceania Healthcare, Goodman, and Heartland support index gains; The NZX, Vulcan Steel, Channel, and SKY are the big decliners.
LOSING FAVOUR
The Coalition government has been doing poorly in the recent political polls, and the trend is not improving. The latest is from RoyMorgan and that indicates they would lose if the election were held today. That is the first independent poll to show them behind the opposition. In this one, it is a switch between National and Labour, rather than shifts to the minor parties. Labour up at National's expense. Hurting most is that a bigger majority think New Zealand is going in the wrong direction.
AFFORDABILITY BARRIER CLOSE
In Australia, Cotality/Corelogic reported that they saw a rise in house prices in August ahead of the usual 'spring upswing'. But they don't see it as frothy as in prior upswings because affordability issues are starting to bite a lot harder at these near record-high levels.
MARKETS CHOOSE PRECIOUS METALS OVER CRYPTOS
The gold and silver prices are on the move up to either record highs or in silver's case, decade highs. Driving these prices are concerns about US risks and stability and a growing awareness of the Trump public policy disasters unfolding. Interestingly, cryptos now respond more to gambling frenzies or are sidelined. They are not acting as a risk absorber in the way precious metals continue to do.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today across the curve, perhaps marginally firmer again. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.00% on Monday. The last time this rate was at 3% was in July 2022. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.36%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.77%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up another +4 bps at 4.44%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +2 bps at 4.37% at the end of Monday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bps from yesterday, now at 4.25%.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED, STILL W/O WALL STREET
The local equity market is still firming in Tuesday trade, up another +0.3%. The ASX200 however is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.2%. Hong Kong however is down -0.1% with Shanghai down -0.7%. Singapore has opened up +0.3%. Wall Street is still on holiday after ending last week off its record high. So far, all indications from the futures market are that the S&P500 will open tomorrow little-changed.
OIL FIRM
The oil price in the US is now just under US$65/bbl and up +US$1 and the international Brent price is under US$68.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been very few trades again today but the price is is down -$1 at $56. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025 and heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD AT ANOTHER ALL TIME HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$20 from yesterday at US$3495/oz and a new record high.
NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.9USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.3 and down nearly -20 bps.
BITCOIN STOPS FALLING
The bitcoin price is now at US$109,942 and up +2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.
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36 Comments
The gold and silver prices are on the move up to either record highs or in silver's case,..... decade highs. Interestingly, cryptos now respond more to gambling frenzies or are sidelined.
Here's my reckon and observations:
1. The rat poison evangelist crowd is livid about the gold price. Why? Because they believe that gold has no place in a modern world and BTC is its natural successor.
2. The same BTC fanatics are also frustrated as the tradfi world like Blackrock is taking big punts on Ethereum as a platform for tokenization. They feel like their narrative is being stolen when it's not been stolen at all (BTC and ETH are different entities). I think many of them are very insecure, except for the OGs.
3. The degenerate end of crypto is dying in terms of activity. Whoever wants to play in that space has either been wiped out (99%) or retired (<1%). It has lost relevance as a casino as the rug pulls are too common and too powerful now. Actually, we can partly thank Trump for that.
Crypto is the now biggest portion of the Trump family’s paper net worth after the WLFI launch.
WLFI is likely now the Trumps’ most valuable asset, exceeding their decades-old property portfolio. While the president’s family has continued to pursue property deals around the world since taking office, the fast-moving crypto business has had the biggest early impact.
President Trump helped launch World Liberty a year ago, while campaigning, saying it would help make “America Great Again, this time with crypto.”
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-family-amasses-6-billion-f…
Just a little reminder, this is not normal behavior for a President. Trump and his family are corrupt on a scale that Hunter Biden didn't even come close to. Anyone who was upset about the Biden family escapades should be downright disgusted.
Disagree. There is no corruption here. It's transparent. I don't think it's a good look, but that's another issue.
Completely different to the Bidens.
Keep updating us as to your unadulterated support for trump and all he does please
There is corruption everywhere you look. Trump is using government policy and the threat of tariffs and other actions to enrich his family to the tune of billions of dollars.
On the Trump crypto currency, his meme coin allows monthly sales of his stock of coins to the highest bidder which is an open door for further corruption.
On the stable coin, Trump has given himself a huge financial interest in an area that he is trying to regulate. The conflict of interests are insane.
I do agree, completely different to the Bidens. Not even in the same league. It's even far worse than Trump's small time corruption in his first term - pushing foreign governments to stay and host events in his properties to gain favor and enrich him. He's really learned a thing or two, and lost any shame he may have had.
On the Trump crypto currency, his meme coin allows monthly sales of his stock of coins to the highest bidder which is an open door for further corruption.
Which is really no different from 99% of crypto projects. But it's not "corruption."
On the stable coin, Trump has given himself a huge financial interest in an area that he is trying to regulate. The conflict of interests are insane.
Look at Tether. Its main source of profit comes from investing the fiat and asset reserves backing its stablecoins into low-risk, interest-bearing instruments, primarily U.S. Treasury bills, reverse repurchase agreements, money market funds, gold, and bitcoin.
Where is the conflict of interest with the Trump stablecoin?
Standard procedure has been for sitting presidents to divest any assets they own which could pose a conflict of interest on any policies they may influence. Famously, Carter even divested his peanut farm to remove any chance of impropriety.
Trump not only refused to divest his assets, he has actively acquired new assets such as these crypto coins while actively looking at regulating these markets. An absolute clear conflict of interests. Not to mention other actions like his family negotiating a sweetheart hotel deal with Vietnam while negotiating their tariff rates. Personal enrichment through threat of government sanctions.
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/emoluments-clau…
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/how-donald-trumps-cry…
Trump not only refused to divest his assets, he has actively acquired new assets such as these crypto coins while actively looking at regulating these markets.
Incorrect.
1. The US President is not legally required by federal law to divest personal assets or business holdings upon taking office. Federal statute does not require the President to sell assets or put them in a blind trust, though cabinet officials and other senior government workers do face such mandates. There is no statute that requires the U.S. president to divest assets, nor is there a statute that affirmatively states the president does not have to do so - rather, the president is specifically exempted from the main federal conflict-of-interest law (18 U.S.C. § 208), which covers most executive branch officials but not the president or vice president.
2. The SEC and CFTC regulate crypto markets, not DJT. [https://sumsub.com/blog/crypto-regulations-in-the-us-a-complete-guide/]
1 does not conflict with what I said if you read it carefully. I never said this broke any laws, although of course Trump is a convicted felon due to falsifying business records so we know he's also happy to play with illegal actions.
2, did you follow the passing of the Trump-supported Genius act that regulates crypto and stable coins? Clear conflict of interest when he has an interest in both, and in fact they make up the majority of his net worth.
Congress passed the Genius Act with a bipartisan vote of 68–30. Just because Trump supported the Act is irrelevant.
Ok, clearly we have different ideas of what's acceptable in a democracy. For me, a leader pushing legislation through a supine Congress that directly affects and boosts his main financial asset is beyond the pale. Horrendous corruption and self-dealing.
This is insane and fortunately missing from our political swamp.
Democrat lawmaker Ilhan Omar reported a negative net worth of -$45,000 when she was first elected to Congress in 2019. Her latest financial disclosure in May shows a net worth of up to USD30 million - a 66,676% increase in 6 years. We know that Omar's husband is wealthy but that's beside the point.
Regardless, Omar denies being a millionaire. And despite Omar's activist politics, the wealth is tied up in a winery and a venture capital firm. For some reason, the winery's assets appreciated 100x in the latest filing.
https://nypost.com/2025/09/01/us-news/rep-ilhan-omars-net-worth-skyrock…
From the link it looks like the assets are her husband's, so I'm not sure you can say that's beside the point. His assets have appreciated, in an admittedly suspicious way.
If their tax return looks similar then this might be the kind of thing the IRS would investigate if they still have sufficient funding for auditing.
The winery's assets were reported in the range of $1 million to $5 million, up from only $15,000–$50,000 the previous year.
Rose Lake Capital saw its assets valued at $5–25 million by the end of 2024, compared to less than $1,000 the year before. The venture capital firm claims to manage $60 billion in assets, although actual income declared for 2024 was "none".
The transparency of these financial disclosures and the origins of her wealth have sparked media and public scrutiny, especially in light of her modest congressional salary ($174,000/year).
They are his assets, why is her salary relevant?
Her assets are declared at USD30 million in the most recent disclosure.
Did you read the link you posted?
"The financial gains came from Mynett’s two businesses, a Santa Rosa, Calif.-based winery and venture capital firm headquartered in Washington, DC. "
It's a joint net worth, and the huge growth came from his assets. Questions to ask for sure, but not the questions you seem to be asking
Declared assets and unearned income must include spousal business and assets.
https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/financial-pdfs/2024/100…
Precisely my point, while in your last post you incorrectly called this 'her' net worth and have questioned how her salary could have created such wealth, when in fact it seems clear this is 'his' wealth.
I just pointed out her salary. Like I would with Nancy Pelosi.
How about Trump's salary? Big enough to explain his net worth growing from a few hundred million to a couple of billion in under a year? You seem more concerned about Democratic innuendo than Trump's open self-enrichment
This demonstrates how useless the private sector is....the gas shortage has been flagged for over a decade and they wait until supply is constrained before considering the implications....hopeless.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2019002543/g…
How long was the housing shortage flagged before the state built anything?
Do you expect that those benefiting from the settings will seek to alter them?
But this is why anything done by the government sucks. No planning, just the current whim of the voters.
LMAO...and you listen to the spokesperson for trhe construction industry and you hear forward thinking?...if so you are the epitome of the problem.]
I agree the government has no plan, though once upon a time they did, and that is the problem....governments have abidicated the responsibility of planning to the private sector.
We see the results.
When it comes to housing, it’s councils and government that set the rules. I reckon we wouldn’t have a housing crisis if everyone could have built whatever they wanted on their own land. They have removed a small amount of the regulations and hey presto houses got built and house prices went down.
As for gas, maybe it’s just not viable anymore, if the government were in charge they’d be throwing our money away.
"As for gas, maybe it’s just not viable anymore, if the government were in charge they’d be throwing our money away."
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK2507/S00065/wildly-inaccurate-figures…
The Government could be in charge.....sadly they choose not to be...they are led by the nose....and Shane has one hell of a honker
About this time before the last election the Labour government had a similar thing happen to them, they went from poll favourites to might get beaten. At that time the right wing commentators here said it was all about the momentum, and (rightly) picked the right to win. Are the same commentators thinking the same thing now, that Labour will win?
I still think the economy will improve next year and the right will be elected, but it’s looking less and less likely.
The biggest risk for the Right is Winnie karking it
I agree, or just calling it a day.
Roy Morgan monthly poll update
In August, support for Labour surges to highest since the 2023 New Zealand Election
Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party would win a slim majority of 62 seats in a 120 seat Parliament
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10014-nz-national-voting-intention-a…
From Wolfie Richter. The office CMBS delinquency rate has spiked to a record 11.7% in the US - far worse than the financial crisis peak. Also, multifamily delinquencies also spike - more than doubled over the past year, reaching 6.86% in August 2025, up from 3.30%, outpacing other property types.
Extend-and-pretend and forbearance deals widely implemented to “cure” delinquent CRE mortgages.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/01/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-t…
Probably Nothing
Correct me if I'm wrong but the rbnz is supposed to smooth out cyclical peaks and troughs as they control inflation. Well they did a piss pair job of it
We've just been through the longest recession since the 1980s/1990s. Exacerbated by rbnz hyping then slowing the economy with Guvna Adrian Orr having a smirk on his ungainly unapologetic face while he screwed up everything.
It's not over yet but is possibly coming to an end, the NZ sharemarket just had 4 consecutive months of rises. The first time in 5 years
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