Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS has trimmed its fixed rates today, but has also ended its 3.99% 12 month First Home Combo special, raising it to 4.29%. This is still lower than any other 1 year rate, in fact any other bank rate for any term. All rates are here. And remember, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to note today here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
'DON'T WANT MORE EXPOSURE'
We are seeing more insurers restricting their risks for climate and/or seismic risks. AA Insurance has put "temporary restrictions' on new home insurance policies in ‘a small number of postcodes’ after reaching its maximum exposure limit for seismic risk in these areas, its head of underwriting says. Clients have had some insurance premium shocks recently, and affordability of premiums becomes a greater issue. See this chart of data deep within the CPI surveys.
BETTER RESILIENCE
But it is not all a one-way street. Christchurch company Seismic Shift wants to make new-build homes more resilient against earthquakes with house shock absorbers.
CREEPING UP
We should probably note that since early July, our grocery price monitor of a standard healthy basket has been rising at about a +5% pa pace, its fastest since the declining post-pandemic peaks in 2023.
NZX50 TURNS FIRMER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% in another positive Friday session. And it is up +1.9% over the past working five days. It also up +0.8% year-to-date. And it is now up +3.9% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% today so far. Today's changes are led today Kathmandu, Briscoe, Hallenstein and Gentrack, while Fletcher, Oceania, SkyCity casino and Serko decline.
HIGH RATING FOR LOWER COSTS
The Community Housing Finding Agency has been given an A+ credit rating by S&P. Its bonds are guaranteed by the Government. Investing in these bonds is only open for wholesale investors.
MORE JOBS, MORE HOURS WORKED, FEWER HAVING SECONDARY OR MULTIPLE JOBS
In Australia, extended June quarter labour market data shows that the number of total jobs increased +0.3% to 16.3 million. Filled jobs rose +0.2% to 16.0 million where secondary jobs decreased -1.2% to 1.0 million and multiple job-holders decreased -1.3% to 948,900. Hours worked increased +0.3% to 6.0 billion hours in the quarter
BNPL TO LOSE ITS GREY STATUS
And staying in Australia, they have progressed legislation that will bring digital wallets, cash distribution services, buy now, pay later schemes and other emerging payment methods directly within the oversight of the regulatory agencies who oversee debt products. It will no longer be a grey area. And it seems likely that will trigger similar moves here otherwise we will be victimised by regulatory arbitrage.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today across the curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.01% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.35%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 4.44%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -5 bps at 4.43% at the end of Thursday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -7 bps from yesterday, now at 4.15% and back to early April levels.
EQUITIES FIRM
The local equity market is again firmer in Friday trade, but only up +0.2% now. The ASX200 however is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.7%. Hong Kong up +0.6% with Shanghai up +0.3%. Singapore has opened up +0.2%. Wall Street ended their Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +0.8%.
OIL SOFTISH
The oil price in the US is now just under US$63.50/bbl and little-changed with the international Brent price down -50 USc to US$67/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FIRMISH
There are more trades again today and the price has firmed slightly to $57.50. The next official carbon auction is next week on September 10, 2025 and heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$24 from yesterday at US$3549/oz and back up just off its record high.
NZD WEAKER
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.1 and down -20 bps.
BITCOIN STILL ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,355 and again virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modestat just under +/- 1.1%.
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11 Comments
I wonder how this insurance problem came about? NZ has had seismic risk forever, why is it all of a sudden an issue? I can understand flooding...
"why is it all of a sudden an issue?"
Perhaps there are some clues...
https://www.interest.co.nz/insurance/134709/suncorp-new-zealands-annual…
https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360788927/higher-premiums-lower-payo…)%20in%20the%20previous%20year.
Price of properties have got expensive over the years. So the price of insurance has to follow. As it is a yearly expense people might be able to afford the house but not the insurance bill. Bit like cash poor, but asset rich.
That's the tradeoff of Ponzinomics - they're associated with higher costs of products and services, partly because the cost of land and its rentier dynamics has to increase (yes, it does apply to the insurance industry as well). If credit creation is channeled towards productive activity, you're better able to control inflation and boom/bust cycles.
So you become a society reliant on the suppression of the price of debt. One of the only factors the ruling elite has some control.
They used to spread the risk around the country so effectively people in less risky places were subsidising those in places like Wellington.
Risk pricing is now a lot more targeted between and within cities and building types. Probably a good and fair thing but it will burn a lot of people.
And staying in Australia, they have progressed legislation that will bring digital wallets, cash distribution services, buy now, pay later schemes and other emerging payment methods directly within the oversight of the regulatory agencies who oversee debt products
NAB has made changes to its terms & conditions which will force all debit card users onto Digital Wallets.
NAB users will no longer issue Debit Cards for savings accounts from 31 October 2025. Users will no longer be able to use their money without Digital Wallet.
Users who hold NAB Debit Cards to a savings account (with interest paid of up to 4.4%) will have to move over to transactional accounts which don’t pay interest and onto the VISA Debit Card network if they wish to continue to use a card.
Users will be forced onto the International VISA platform in order to have card, which will also mean no interest is paid on those accounts.
Interestingly, iSaver accounts will also no longer be able to be used as offset accounts on mortgages/
https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/guides/banking/pers…
The phone texts of disgraced SEC Chair Gary Gensler - who Trump promised to fire if he were elected [Gensler resigned 7 days after Trump was elected] - are "missing" for a period of 12 months (Oct 2022 to Sept 2023) according to the Office of the Inspector General.
The Office calls this "avoidable errors" - which essentially suggests they should not be lost. And it stinks that the SEC appears to be pulling the wool over everyone's eyes.
This was a critical time of the FTX aftermath (Gensler is an associate of SBF's parents) and the Dems distancing themselves from Bankman-Fried; numerous lawsuits against crypto companies and ETFs. Gensler was effectively a puppet of Elizabeth Warren who at the time was waging a jihad against digital assets related to bank custody and regulation.
https://www.sec.gov/files/sec-oig-review-587-2025.pdf
https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2023/05/do-not-delete-se…
You're on shaky ground with leveling this Mr Phoenix.
Wholehearted endorsement of Chump probably means you wouldn't consider his ongoing destruction of documents as breaking the Presidential Records Act. Does this help jog your memory:
"Throughout his presidency, President Trump shredded, tore up, and in some cases flushed documents—both mundane and sensitive—on Air Force One, at Mar‑a‑Lago, and in the White House. Staffers taped some fragments back together, but not all materials were recovered."
There is little doubt that the September carbon auction will fail. The big question is whether the December auction will also fail. If the December auction does fail, then that will subsequently suck out a considerable volume of ETS credits via the private market next May when ETS debtors (i.e. users of fossil fuels) have to deliver. Eventually the market price of carbon will rise.
KeithW
There is a massive surplus/stockpile of Units, 50 million according to the Climate Commission
NYT explores why more millionaires are choosing to rent, highlighting that flexibility, financial strategy, and the allure of luxury rentals drive the trend. Millionaire renters prefer mobility for business or lifestyle reasons, and value keeping cash liquid rather than locking it in real estate. Upscale rentals now offer amenities typically found in top hotels, further attracting the wealthy to rent rather than buy. The article emphasizes that renting is increasingly seen as a strategic choice, not a compromise, among HNWIs.
Makes sense to me.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/realestate/millionaire-renters-homeo…
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