A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; cartel in Christchurch, affordability improves, new migrant pathway, Holidays Act to be repealed, CHFA raises $200 mln, swasp and NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Non-bank lender Welcome has cut their six month fixed rate by -20 bps to 6.75%, and the two year fixed rate by -30 bps to 6.95%. With swap rates now much lower, some rate changes can't be far away. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

CHRISTCHURCH REAL ESTATE 'CARTEL' ALLEGED
The Commerce Commission has begun civil proceedings alleging cartel conduct in the Christchurch real estate market. The alleged conduct involves four Harcourts franchisees as well as the businesses’ franchisor, Harcourts Group. ComCom says because the franchisees competed with each other for customers, entering into agreements that affected the prices they charged customers - including commission rates - constitutes alleged cartel conduct under the Commerce Act. The franchisor, Harcourts Group, was a party to those agreements.

MOST LQ HOUSING AFFORDABLE FOR MOST FHBs
First home buyers are benefiting from the convergence of falling mortgage rates, lower house prices and slowly rising incomes. And that is bringing back affordable housing for most first home buyers.

NEW IMMIGRATION PATHWAYS COMING
From mid-2026, there will be two new residence pathways for immigrants. The Skilled Work Experience pathway will be for migrants in skilled roles who have at least five years of directly relevant work experience, including at least two years of experience in New Zealand where they’ve been paid at least 1.1 times the median wage. And the Trades and Technician pathway will be for migrants in specified skilled roles who hold a relevant qualification at Level 4 or above, and have at least four years of relevant post-qualification skilled work experience, including at least 18 months in New Zealand where they’ve been paid at or above the median wage. Of course, Winston will be opposed.

NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was little-changed net in its Tuesday session so far. It is also now down -0.9% over the past five working days. But it is up +0.5% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.9% today so far. Genesis, Heartland, EBOS, and Hallensteins rise while Gentrack, SkyCity casino, a2 Milk, and Ryman all fall.

SPECULATION
Some people are betting this person is the next RBNZ Governor. And it is speculation at this point, but enhanced by Bloomberg saying it will be a woman. More here. (Do we really need yet another English import telling us what to do?)

REPEAL & REPLACE
The Government said it is repealing the Holiday's Act and will replace it. It's complexity had bedevilled employers, including Government agencies, for decades, with confusion that lingers until today. Some of the changes indicated are 1. a shift to hours-based accrual for sick and annual leave, 2. a shift to hours-based accrual for sick and annual leave, 3. shift to pro rata sick leave, 4. Leave Compensation Payment for casual employees, 5. Leave Compensation Payment for additional hours worked, 6. Family violence and bereavement leave access, 7. Returning from parental leave, 8. Mandatory pay statements, and 9. Cashing up annual leave. It is likely that the unions will resist these changes.

ESAS DOOR OPENING WIDER
The RBNZ is opening its Exchange Settlement Account System to a wider set of financial institutions. Presently 13 banks, and the RBNZ itself, are in, plus the NZX, and the Treasury/DMO, the LGFA, the Super FUnd and CLS. Now the door is opening wider for others who can qualify.

EYES ON KEY DAIRY EVENTS
There is a GDT pulse auction tomorrow, a day ahead of the big Fonterra annual report set piece announcement. The derivatives trading suggests, the SMP price will be little-changed from last week's full auction event, but the WMP price is at risk of a -5% retreat.

$200 MLN CHFA RAISED
The Community Housing Funding Agency has raised $200 mln in 3-year and 5-year fixed rate social bonds. The 3-year yield is 3.47% and the 5-year is 3.89 pa.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today in the short durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.84% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp from yesterday at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.88%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.26%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +3 bps, at 4.23% at the end of Friday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 4.15%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is little-changed in Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up another +1.0%. Hong Kong however is down -0.7% with Shanghai down -0.9%. Singapore is up +0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +0.4%.

OIL SOFT
The oil price in the US is down more than -50 USc from yesterday at just under US$62/bbl but the international Brent price is now under US$66.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE RISES
There have been many trades reported today, and the prices are firm, up at $58. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up sharply to a new record high, now at US$3739/oz, up +US$48 from this time yesterday. Silver is now up at US$43.90, although it was over $44 earlier.

NZD HOLDS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are are still at 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -30 bps at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just under 65.9.

BITCOIN DIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,988 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest just over +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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