Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB has cut their 2 year rate by -26 bps to a market-leading 4.49%. Details here. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has trimmed 5-10 bps from some key TD rates today. UnityMoney and FinanceDirect also trimmed rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SWEDISH CANDIDATE GETS RBNZ'S TOP JOB
Anna Breman, currently First Deputy Governor of Sweden’s central bank, has been named Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), making history as the first woman and non-New Zealander to fill the role. More here.
IN THE DOLDRUMS
Employment confidence has lifted slightly but is still in the doldrums. The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Survey shows that despite its slight lift, confidence remains at the low levels seen in the aftermath of the first Covid lockdown in 2020.
SCAMS A SERIOUS ISSUE
There has been a drop in the number of complaints made to Banking Ombudsman Scheme but 'serious concerns' remain about scammers.
LONG-TERM CHALLENGES
The Treasury has published its Long-Term Fiscal Statement, identifying key pressures on the fiscal position that are expected to require policy adjustment (assuming we value intergenerational fairness, fiscal sustainability and efficiency, and maintaining enough fiscal firepower to respond to future crises). Compared to the 2021 edition, the sense of urgency to address these issues has been dialled up: we’re now four more years into intensifying demographic pressures and policy adjustment has been far from rapid. There is no single policy lever that can fix this. (H/T ANZ)
EARLY SIGNS OF A TURNAROUND?
As regular readers will be aware, we track commercial property 'for lease' weekly on some property portals. The latest listing data has the first early signs that demand in this sector may be firming. It is noticeable in Auckland with the first decline in advertised vacancies in more than six weeks in central Auckland, mirrored by a similar easing in Manukau. The North Shore, not so much. But these improvements are being cancelled by a noticeable rise in Wellington still. No observable changes in Hamilton, Tauranga, and other similar regional centers yet however.
TRACKING CAR INSURANCE PREMIUMS
We also track car insurance premiums quoted on a standard new car (Toyota RAV4) and a popular used import (Toyota Aqua) in each of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. This is not really indicating rising premium charges for online quotes from most of the insurers we track (State, AMI, AA Insurance, Tower and Cove.) But one of them has pushed up their quote prices sharply over the past six months especially for new cars.
NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.2% net in its Wednesday session so far. It is also now down -1.0% over the past five working days. But it is up +0.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +6.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.9% today so far. Kathmandu, Oceania, Turners and Napier Port advance but EBOS, Mercury, Contact and Meridian Energy all decline
A RISK OF COOPERATIVES
Tomorrow, Fonterra will be reporting its 2024/25 final results. Clearly farmer shareholders are expecting a good result with a bigger-than +4% price jump today in the FSF share value. Being a co-op with many farmers floating between policy positions and inside knowledge, and their own farms and self-interest, it perhaps should not be a surprise that there has been a rush on the FSF shares. The FCG shares are behaving better, with their rise more attuned to already released information earlier in the month. It will be interesting to watch whether market regulators check what was behind the FSF movement today.
BOND SUCCESS
The LGFA has raised US$500 mln (NZ$850 mln) in a 5 year bond as part of its US$10 bln Euro Medium Term Note Program. It was priced at 3.87% pa yield. (When it is swapped back to NZD the effective yield will be 'normal' for NZD borrowing.)
CHALLENGING THE RBA's COMFORT ZONE
Today's release of the August monthly CPI indicator series in Australia shows that inflations pressures are still alive - and rising. They came in at 3.0%, the most in more than a year. But they have a 1-3% target range so it is technically within that range. The trajectory will worry the RBA all the same.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today in the short durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bps at 2.83% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from yesterday at 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.89%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.26%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -1 bp, at 4.22% at the end of Tuesday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.11%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The local equity market is down -0.2% in Wednesday trade. However, the ASX200 is down a full -1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.4%. Hong Kong is up +0.6% with Shanghai up +0.3%. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.6%.
OIL RISES
The oil price in the US is up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$63.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now under US$68/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been more trades reported today, and the prices are slightly softer at $57.50. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up to US$3755/oz, up +US$16 from this time yesterday. Silver is now at US$44, little-changed.
NZD HDIPS, ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE AUD
The Kiwi dollar is again unchanged from yesterday, still at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 88.5 AUc in an outsized move. Against the euro we up +10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 65.7.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$112,241 and up a minor +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low just under +/- 0.8%.
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10 Comments
Farmers love to gossip. The rural industry is always full of rumours. With the range of ratios of shares to production now permitted to farmers the FSF price is as much about what farmers can afford as what return can be made. Many/most farmers are flush with funds after a good payment last week and with more to come.
You are correct - many of the decision makers and their supporters will benefit personally from decisions being made by the Fonterra board but we have to trust they respect the no trading time limits around board meetings as is expected of directors in standard companies..
China is apparently now proposing countries store their sovereign gold with them instead of in London (or to a lesser extent in the US or Switzerland).
Probably yet another long-term consequence of the freezing of Russia's reserves by the West, as well as the various sanctions. The calculation might be that even though China may also have risks, diversification is key to reducing risk overall.
Also, China's huge advantage is its status as most countries' largest trading partner. How do you think London came to be the place to store gold? Same story: because they use to dominate trade. Finance has always naturally follows trade flows for obvious reasons: because trade needs financing. The current legacy architecture where the financing for bilateral trade with China needs to be routed through the West, backed by gold in London, is anachronistic.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-23/china-courts-foreign…
China: "You weaponize the USD (while sending us $1.2T per year in USD trade surpluses), we'll weaponize gold, and let's see who runs out first."
"When the gold arrived in Moscow, Stalin celebrated with a banquet at the Kremlin. “They will never see their gold again”, he laughed. “Just as they do not see their own ears.”
Germany announced in 2013 that it would repatriate 300 tons of gold from the United States by 2020, but completed the task ahead of schedule in 2016, meaning the process took about 3-4 years instead of the initially planned 7 years.
Question to me is why it actually took 3-4 years in the first place.
Chat GPT gave 8 reasons why it took as long as it did. Is there any reason why I need to lose any sleep over it?
You don't have to lose any sleep. It's only us conspiracy theorists who pay any attention to these things. The rest of you can focus on rugby projections.
Nope that doesn't help. Corrie ten Boom spent time in a nazi concentration camp, and had advice for finding rest. Look that up
Thanks, good story.
NZ's plan in case of a Japanese invasion was to stash the cash in a vault in Naenae
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/250861/The-derelict-house-that-hides-a…
Today's FSF volume was not out of this world huge, I know there were individuals, mummies and daddies buying ahead of tomorrow. Let's see if that is justified.
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