Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BETTER NOW BUT OVERSTATED EARLIER
The latest monthly filled jobs data shows a rise - but Statistics NZ has revised down figures for the previous two months and these now show no gain for those months.
FEWER NEW HOMES
There are around 350 fewer new homes being built in Auckland each month compared to a year ago. Residential building completions in Auckland are down more than -20% compared to last year's peak; but the slump continues to flatten.
NEW VISA AVAILABLE
Applications opened today for the Parent Boost Visitor Visa, which will allow parents of New Zealand citizens and residents to come and visit their children for up to five years.
ANOTHER BIG CORPORATE BOND OFFER
Auckland International Airport has launched a retail bond offer of up to NZ$200 mln in five-and-a-half-year fixed-rate bonds. They will be rated A- by S&P and quoted on the NZX Debt Market. The bookbuild is underway.
NZX50 TURNS HIGHER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.8% net in its Monday session so far, after a slowish start. It is now up +0.6% over the past five working days. But it is up +1.1% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +6.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.9% today so far. The gainers are led by Infratil, Oceania, Heartland, and Scales, but Meridian, Port of Tauranga, and Tourism Holdings lead the decliners.
BIG TRADING
More than $81 bln in NZ Government bonds were traded last week, and that was an all-time high. For perspective, the weekly turnover was $35.5 bln in the same week a year ago.
NOT BANKABLE
Sheep and beef farms may deliver a successful lifestyle but it is a real struggle to make them stack up as a normal bankable business. The land price 'has to crash both in real and nominal terms', says Keith Woodford. Even a -50% crash may not be enough, he calculates. (and this from Pita Alexander.)
TIME TRAVEL
Daylight savings time has started in New Zealand of course, but not yet in Australia. So we are now 3 hours ahead of eastern Australia. But Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia do not observe daylight saving time, making it a patchwork system across their country. Those state that do adopt daylight saving will 'spring forward' on Saturday this week.
SOE APPOINTMENTS ANNOUNCED
At Kiwi Group Capital, ex-Westpac boss David McLean has been reappointed as Chair for a one-year term commencing 1 November 2025. (Kiwi Group Capital owns Kiwibank and NZ Home Loans.) Scott Pickering has also been appointed as a director for a three-year term beginning 1 October 2025. At NZ Post, Alastair Bell and Grant Stapleton have been appointed as directors for three-year terms starting 22 September 2025.
WHAT A GOOD LABOUR MARKET CAN DO
In Australia, a strong labour market has boosted the budget bottom line, wiping almost AU$18 bln off the deficit for the last financial year to June 2025. The March pre-election federal budget predicted a deficit of -AU$27.6 bln for the same period. The final budget outcome, due to be officially released later today, will put that figure at -AU$10 bln..
COMMON TACTICS
By directing the US Department of Justice to seek an indictment of former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey, Trump appears to be borrowing a tactic from the playbook of Vladimir Putin, Barbara McQuade writes in Bloomberg Opinion. The Kremlin leader doesn’t try to convince the Russian people that he is honest, she writes. Instead he works to persuade them that everyone else is corrupt. If voters believe that all public officials are crooks, then they will overlook the crooked leader who professes to share their values, McQuade says. Trump has publicly derided Comey for years despite what at least one famous political analyst says was Comey’s key role in Trump winning the White House in the first place. Comey became a focal point of the Republican president’s ire as a result of investigations into alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia (claims of which were never substantiated). Nevertheless, multiple intelligence agencies determined that it was likely Putin tried to sway US elections in Trump’s favour. Critics of the current Trump administration say he has now weaponised the Department of Justice to pursue his perceived enemies, beginning a new era of American “lawfare” that Trump himself said on Friday is only just beginning.
SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be marginally softer today for all short durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.82% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps from Saturday at 4.35%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.88%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 4.24%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +1 bp, at 4.23% at the end of Friday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 4.16%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY TURN BULLISH
The local equity market is now up +1.0% in Monday trade and powering into the close. However, the ASX200 is only up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.0%. Hong Kong is up +0.9% at its open with Shanghai down -0.5%. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street futures are signaling the S&P500 will open +1.0% ahead of its Friday close. If that transpires, it will be a new all-time high..
OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is essentially unchanged from this morning at just over US$65/bbl and the international Brent price is still just over US$69.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
Prices remain range-bound on low volumes and low volatility. Today's tiny trades are at $57.10/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up to US$3776/oz, up +US$17 from this morning.
NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning's open, now at 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 49.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 65.2 and little-changed, not only from this morning's open, but from Friday as well.
BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,946 and up +1.5% from this morning. Volatility has been modest,just on +/- 1.4%.
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13 Comments
Simplicity may well be the first Kiwisaver provider to go to zero. Slow, then fast.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/first-look-inside-nzs-biggest-build…
The apartments are financed with Simplicity members’ KiwiSaver funds.
The properties could return 10-12% per annum, although that is yet to be proved.
I wouldn't touch these investments with a barge pole. But hey, when you have other people's money to play with, what could go wrong?
Yes, it's their members funds, all of which is at risk of being transferred to another provider with very little notice. With a big mouth for a CEO, this has some real risk.
Oh, and 10%-12% is a joke.
The article shows it as a $225m complex with 297 units.
Easy enough maths, $757k per apartment.
To get 10% out of that, you need $1450 a week, and that's assuming 0 other expenses.....
Just down the road, Kiwi Property are struggling to rent out their similar 'build to rent' units with long-term availability, that are rented for about half of that, also in a much better location....
Back of envelope numbers can work wonders. I'm not aware of anywhere else in the world that does this kind of investment with designated retirement savings. Not quite the same, but what has happened in Aussie with retirement savings allocated to NDIS has been a swamp of failure and scams.
NDIS reeks of scammers convincing rich idiots that they had the secret sauce for sale.
To be fair, KPG annual report from May 2025 says that around 88% of apartments at Resido in Sylvia Park were rented within a year of opening. Assume it's close to 100% now? Most are for durations of 2-10 years. I also heard they were being fairly picky about tenants so they got the right vibes going in the complex.
Veritas Investments, previously San Francisco’s largest landlord, has defaulted on $652 million in debt, putting 66 apartment buildings - comprising 1,566 units - at risk of foreclosure. This marks one of the largest multifamily loan defaults in California in recent years, with significant implications for tenants, the local market, and broader confidence in West Coast multifamily real estate.
Imagine this happening and announcing it at an Aotearoa property investor seminar circa 2019. You'd be laughed into tomorrow.
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/sf-landlord-foreclosure-building…
By directing the US Department of Justice to seek an indictment of former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey, Trump appears to be borrowing a tactic from the playbook of Vladimir Putin, Barbara McQuade writes in Bloomberg Opinion
Matt Taibbi says people don’t realize the scale of the misdeeds involved in Russiagate. It would be criminal if Trump allowed intelligence/enforcement agencies to get away with what they did.
Comey was asked under oath if he "authorized someone else at the FBI to be an anonymous source in news reports.” An Obama-appointed Inspector General wrote a whole report on the subject, and the FBI’s “Arctic Haze” memos also address this is great detail.
https://oig.justice.gov/news/doj-oig-releases-report-investigation-form…
Yes, mentioning this is cringeworthy. The following is from the FBI director Patel.
“The wildly false accusations attacking this FBI for the politicization of law enforcement comes from the same bankrupt media that sold the world on Russia Gate—it’s hypocrisy on steroids.”
Great WSJ article of the rise of America's young socialists. The GFC was the spark. And makes complete sense. A generation with no stake in the system would rather watch the system burn.
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/socialists-zohran-mamdani-2008-financial-cr…
The 'system' is self immolating.
Good article thanks.
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