Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB has cut all its fixed rates. The details are here. This follows yesterday's late cut by Westpac. ICBC also trimmed rates today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Matching most mortgage rate reductions have been term deposit rate cuts. We have reviewed where these stand in this update. Also note that SBS has launched another 'special' of 4.35% for six months. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
KIWISAVER HARDSHIP WITHDRAWALS STOP GROWING, BUT AREN'T REDUCING EITHER
Nearly $215 mln was taken out of KiwiSaver in early withdrawals during August for first homes and financial hardship, according to IRD data. Although that is not a record high (that was in July 2025), it is +17% higher than in August 2024 and that was the lowest year-on-year change since April 2023. Hardship withdrawals rose sharply starting in early 2023 until the end of 2024 but have not risen (or really fallen) since the start of 2025.
LIVESTOCK SECTOR SHRINKING
In the year to August, only just over 20 mln sheep were processed at all works nationwide. Ignoring the pandemic disruption, this is the lowest level since these records started in 1988. And the latest totals are actually very close to the pandemic affected years. In about six months, that annualised total will have slipped below 20 mln. In fact the processing of cattle at the works is now falling too, down to 2018 levels. So the processing capacity issues are only going to get larger. And this won't help.
NZX50 FIRMER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.2% net in its Friday session so far, after a slowish start. It is up +2.8% over the past five working days. And it is up +3.1% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +7.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% today so far. Oceania, SkyCity casino, Freightways and Kathmandu gain; a2 Milk, Auckland Airport, Gentrack and Serko fall.
OLDER THAN US
We hear a lot about Japan and China, but other Asian countries are getting older faster. Singaporean data has just revealed that for the first time, more than 20% of their population is now 65 year or older. In New Zealand that ratio is now 17% (as is the ratio in Australia). Singapore has a population of 6.1 mln. New Zealand's population is 5.4 mln. The next 'oldest ASEAN country is Thailand where 15% of their population is 65 or older. (For Japan, the ratio is 30%, for China 15%, for South Korea 20%.)
A RISE BUT NOT A CONCERN
In Japan, after falling to an unusually low 2.3%, their jobless rate rose in August to 2.6% which was a rise that was more than expected and higher than at any time in 2025. It is now more like its 2022-2024 average.
SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be marginally firmer today for all durations except the 1 year. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp on Thursday at 2.77%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at 4.32%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.88%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.24%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Thursday's rate down -3 bps to 4.19%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 4.09%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now up +0.3% in Friday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.6%. Hong Kong is down -0.7% at its open and of course Shanghai is still on its holiday break. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session with the S&P500 up +0.1%, ignoring the shutdown drama..
OIL DIPS AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down -$1.50 to just on US$60.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now down at just under US$64.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
Prices remain range-bound on very light volumes, holding at $57/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up to US$3857/oz, down -US$7 from this time yesterday.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now holding at just over 65.5.
BITCOIN FIRMS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$119,951 and up nearly +1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.1%.
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17 Comments
Not many comments today. Is the cost of living so bad that people have cancelled their internet and are looking at the rain?
I used my comment limit up this week baiting Yvil over house price trends........
It was too easy
more seriously BTC holding well in NZD
and then i found this
In a move that has electrified both Wall Street and the crypto world, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager has officially purchased more than $1 billion worth of Bitcoin this week. The acquisition marks one of the boldest bets yet by a traditional financial giant, signaling that Bitcoin is no longer just a fringe asset but a serious part of global investment strategy.
Industry insiders say this massive purchase could be a turning point, legitimizing cryptocurrency in the eyes of institutional investors worldwide. For years, BlackRock has been cautious with digital assets, but this sudden, billion-dollar leap suggests a strategic shift driven by rising client demand and Bitcoin’s role as a potential hedge against inflation and market volatility.
more seriously BTC holding well in NZD
JPM says ratty is undervalued relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, implying a 42% rise in BTC for a fair value of $165k or $283k in Kiwi pesos.
Aka the debasement trade.
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/02/bitcoin-could-reach-usd165k…
At least we could watch free to air cricket if it wasn't raining in Mt Maunganui.
I assume Mt Maunganui is now the biggest city in NZ and that is why almost every cricket game is played there with almost no games in Auckland?
no one goes to cricket in winter, and the fact we cannot beat aussie, in almost any format, windies in akl will be a sellout
Rain from the east, three days at least. A wet weekend then if that be so, and by that supposition, the comments here will be dampened down accordingly in so much that only the wet will feature, including me of course. Certainly not as sporty as it used to be but the cutting out of the extreme stuff has been worth it all the same.
My subscription lapsed while I was away in Australia a few weeks dealing with a family bereavement. After a few days cold turkey & an emotional time dealing with more immediate things than global economic meltdowns I started wondering if I would renew it on my return to NZ.
However, 2026 being election year, I thought that all voices should be heard, also taking the opportunity to update my email & username (formerly kiwikidsnz).
It's the end of the second week of the school holidays. People have entered the drinking stage to get them through the last few days 🥂
of the first week.....
Hard to see this not escalating
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/03/ukraine-war-briefing-puti…
as France prepares for mass casualties in hospitals by March 2026
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-hospitals-war-eu…
buy gold and dig deep China will hit Taiwan if this escalates as their economy runs out of options...
Emmanuel Todd, one of the very few great French intellectuals we have left, believes that fundamentally the US is accepting what he calls "defeat" against not only Russia but China as well, and that Trump is effectively trying - clumsily - to manage this defeat and to adapt the US to multipolarity.
He says that the US' defeat in Ukraine isn't like Afghanistan or Iraq but that it represents what he calls "America's first major strategic defeat of its history."
In the war, he says Russia has become "the shield of all the rest of the world who can't stand US guardianship of global finance [and] the exploitation of the working populations in the rest of the world by Westerners."
As he puts it, Russia has demonstrated "that they were able to face the whole West," and with the rise of BRICS financial systems, this represents nothing less than "the end of the American imperium" - a defeat Trump must now manage.
I have not seen US Boots on the ground, releasing full fury via cruise missile from air sea and land, its just a proxy war with drones.......
Trump knows he must follow NATO in not lead.
but war is coming... https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dugin-war-ahead-us
Emmanuel also says Chinese naval production will soon make the US Navy a dwarf navy and US aircraft carriers are irrelevant facing hypersonic missiles.
Except it just takes one deep water nuke sub to do the dirty deeds full on as Trump, intimated sort of, some weeks back.
Last year France had already mobilised the French Foreign Legion for Ukraine, but Putin threw his toys and threatened nukes (again). Then the North Koreans came, so FFL is now a more legitimate option
Go Woke...
The London Stock Exchange is dying. We have dropped out of the top 20 IPO markets, falling behind Mexico. In 2006 London raised $51bn, this year[td] it was $248m. A 99% decrease.
this is a huge concern
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