A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; BNZ & TSB keep the rate cuts coming, no optimism in business opinion, ASB waves white flag, home ownership slips again, Gen Z meateaters, swaps down, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ and TSB both cut some og their fixed rates to align with where the market is settling just before tomorrow's OCR review. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB trimmed many of its TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE ECONOMY IS NOT IMPROVING
The long-running NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion has shown falling confidence in the September quarter as the anticipated recovery in demand continues to disappoint. This may bolster the case for a -50 bps cut tomorrow (?)

LAWYERS WIN BIG, BANK LOSES, CLAIMANTS GET WHAT'S LEFT
ASB has agreed to cough up $135.6 mln to settle a class action relating to home and personal loans between 2015 and 2019. This is a far larger penalty for breaching CCCFA laws than any regulator would impose. It was won in negotiation by class-action lawyers. That ASB has settled now (caved?) is interesting because the government said they had their back and would change the law. Something happened. ANZ is facing a similar legal class action. The numbers are big for ASB but likely much of it will go to the lawyers who worked on contingency and the funding industry that supports them.

BOLSTERING A WEAKNESS
Bank and financial stability regulations will soon be set by a committee (the FPC, or Financial Policy Committee) made up of Reserve Bank staff, board members, and external experts. Although probably long considered, it is necessary now because the incoming RBNZ governor has no experience regulating financial stability. (Applications are open to join this committee.)

HOME OWNERSHIP LEVELS DECLINING AGAIN
From 1991 to mid 2018, home ownership levels fell, dropping ten percentage points to 64.5%. Then they started rising again and did so until mid 2023 when the almost reached 67.5%. But since then they have reverted to falling again and by September were down to 66.5%. All this is according to updated data released today by StatsNZ for their Dwelling & Household Estimates.

NZX50 RISES MODESTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% net in its Tuesday session so far. It is up +1.8% over the past five working days. And it is up +3.5% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +7.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.9% today so far. Ryman, Vulcan Steel, SkyTV, and Oceania leads gains; Mercury, Meridian, Precinct, and Vital Healthcare the main decliners.

MEAT CONSUMPTION MAKES A COMEBACK FOR GEN-Z
The latest survey update on food buying habits shows some notable changes. Households are spending an average of $240 per week on food – just $2 more per week than in 2023. To combat rising food prices and reduced food budgets (in relative terms), Kiwis are preparing better for grocery shopping, with more saying they plan meals and use shopping lists. More Kiwis now say they are cooking or preparing a meal seven-plus times a week, while more also indicate they eat out and/or purchase takeaways two or more times a week. While one in five Kiwis say they are planning to reduce meat consumption, this proportion is lower than in previous surveys, with a growing number in Gen Z (aged 18-28) say they are planning to increase meat consumption. Gen Z have been instrumental in driving a drop in the number of people identifying as vegans (2% from 3% in 2023) and vegetarians (6% from 9% previously).

ANOTHER DAIRY AUCTION DUE
There is another full dairy auction overnight. Derivatives trading suggests SMP prices may rise from the last Pulse event to be little-changed from the prior full event three weeks ago. But the WMP price may slide again, down maybe -4%.

SECOND THOUGHTS IN THE LUCKY COUNTRY
Aussie consumer sentiment is receding. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell in October from September to its lowest reading in six months. Optimism about where family finances are headed is fading. Uncertainty about future interest rate cuts is rising. And pessimism about housing affordability is rising as house price expectations hit new 15-year high. These are retrograde moves.

A SURPRISINGLY GOOD OUTCOME
Japanese household spending rose +2.3% in August from a year ago and far better than expected. In fact, it was the fourth straight monthly rise and the strongest pace since May. Helping were government support measures at tackling cost pressures (including the big rice price jump) and the new American tariffs.

SWAP RATES TURN DOWN
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be notably softer today for all durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp on Monday at 2.73%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from yesterday at 4.41%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.88%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 4.25%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Monday's rate up +2 bps to 4.23%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.16%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now up +0.5% in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up another +0.7% even after yesterday's spectacular surge. Hong Kong is down -0.7% at its open and of course Shanghai is still on its holiday break. Singapore is up +0.8% at its open, a big move for them. Wall Street ended its Monday session up +0.4% on the S&P500.

OIL STABILISES
The oil price in the US is little-changed from yesterday at this time at just over US$61.50/bbl and the international Brent price is still just on US$65.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
There have been some larger trades today but the price has slipped slightly to $56.50/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$43 from yesterday, now at US$3958/oz. That puts it just 1% below the US$4000/oz mark.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still holding at just over 65.6.

BITCOIN FIRMS MARGINALLY
The bitcoin price is now at US$124,655 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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