Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
As we publish this, only CFML has cut rates so far. SBS Bank cut its fixed rates today, but not its floating rate yet. As we publish, no bank has announced a floating rate cut yet. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
First there was BNZ, then Kiwibank has cut most of its TD rates today before the OCR announcement. Heartland and AMP have cut too, as has SBS Bank. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
DOUBLE DIP
The RBNZ has cut the OCR by -50 bps to 2.50%. More here. It was last at that level in July 2022 - and January 2016.
ACTIVE BY BUYING CHEAPER
Investors' share of residential property sales is increasing compared to last year but they are paying slightly less for the properties they buy.
BUT RENTS SLIP TOO
But there is bad news for landlords with rental stock levels up, asking rents coming down. The number of residential properties available to rent is up +24% compared to a year ago, with the average asking rent down -$20 a week.
ASB GETTING NEW CFO AS CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER LEAVES
ASB's Chief Financial Officer Carl Ferguson is shifting to parent Commonwealth Bank of Australia to be Group Chief Internal Auditor from November 10. Andrew MacVicar, currently CFO of Operations at CBA, will be ASB's new CFO. ASB Chief Operating Officer Amie Nilsson will leave on December 19 with a search for her successor to come.
DAIRY PRICES DIP IN USD, SAVED BY WEAK NZD
The overnight dairy auction brought slightly easing prices, although not be as much as the derivatives market had signaled. In the end prices fell -1.6% in USD terms, but in NZD terms they were actually up +1.5% as the value of our currency is weaker.
ENVIRONMENTAL UPDATE
StatsNZ has released Our Marine Environment 2025. It is the latest in a series of environmental reports produced by the Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ under the Environmental Reporting Act 2015. It is the fourth report dedicated to the marine environment, following the 2016, 2019, and 2022 reports. Details here.
NZX50 RISES MODESTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% net in its Tuesday session so far. It is up +1.8% over the past five working days. And it is up +3.5% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +7.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.1% today so far. Kathmandu, Oceania, Property for Industry, and Summerset lead gainers, Gentrack, Vital Healthcare, and Tourism Holdings lead the decliners.
ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY EYES SOLAR INCREASE
The Electricity Authority says it wants to remove barriers so more electricity from small-scale solar, wind and solar farms, and other distributed generation can power the country. It says we need to maximise the value of these clean, cheap and localised energy sources to strengthen the electricity system, boost resilience in communities, and lower costs. It's seeking feedback on a consultation paper.
SWAP RATES DROP
Wholesale swap rates are will be notably lower today for all durations. Immediately after the big OCR cut the one year rate was down -7 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp on Tuesday at 2.73%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps from yesterday at 4.37%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.88%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.21%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Monday's rate up +2 bps to 4.23%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 4.13%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now up +0.7% in Wednesday trade so far, all after the OCR cut. The ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up another +0.1%. Hong Kong is down -1.6% at its open and of course Shanghai is still on its holiday break. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session down -0.4% on the S&P500.
OIL UP IN MINOR MOVE
The oil price in the US is up 50 USc from yesterday at this time at just over US$62/bbl and the international Brent price is still just under US$66/bbl.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been some small trades today but the price has slipped -$1 to $55.50/NZU which is its lowest since July. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD BREAKS THROUGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$47 from yesterday, now at US$4005/oz and is on the move. Silver is back over US$48/ox.
NZD DROPS HARD
The Kiwi dollar is dropped sharply after the OCR cut, now down -80 bps from yesterday to 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -60 bps at 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 49.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -50 bps at just over 65.1.
BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is now at US$121,981 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.8%.
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30 Comments
Gold's run is impressive, I expected a few pullbacks on the move to $4,000 but it's all one way traffic at the moment without a pause.
It also speaks volumes about the health of the world economy and the USD.
ZH's take..
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-tops-4000-first-time-and-how-goldman-trading-meltup-here
As Bloomberg notes, jumps in the price of gold typically track broader economic and political stresses. The metal breached $1,000 an ounce in the aftermath of the financial crisis, $2,000 during the Covid pandemic, and $3,000 as the Trump administration’s tariff plans washed over global markets in March.
“Gold breaking $4,000 isn’t just about fear — it’s about reallocation,” said Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets Pte. “With economic data on pause and rate cuts on the horizon, real yields are easing, while AI-heavy equities look stretched. Central banks built the base for this rally, but retail and ETFs are now driving the next leg.”
Thanks for the link 3Cents
Yvil
i recall about a year ago when gold was $US1900 that you saw opportunity and had bought some. An excellent call considering the outlook at the time involved widespread economic and political uncertainties.
i recall your post as I gave it some consideration but too much inertia to get off my butt.
Do you still hold your gold?
i recall about a year ago when gold was $US1900 that you saw opportunity and had bought some. An excellent call considering the outlook at the time involved widespread economic and political uncertainties.
Everyone's an expert on gold at the water coolers / BBQs across Aotearoa now. They're popping out of the woodwork. Quick pivot from the Ponzi.
It's easy enough to work who's cosplaying or who's real.
before the GFC broke
it's not a crazy lift in gold price it's the collapse of fiat, USD first but all fiat becomes worthless tokens with USD
it's not a crazy lift in gold price it's the collapse of fiat, USD first but all fiat becomes worthless tokens with USD.
Correct. But the Johnny-come-latelys don't really think like that. They just see the number. Similar to the ol' rat poison.
I remember Yvil talking about it at the time, too. To be fair, he normally seems fairly open about these things, and it would be a strange thing to lie about back then.
Thanks mfd, it seems JC struggles with giving others credit. This was a good call, but I also had my share of bad ones!
If you say it's true, it must be true Dr Y. Next we'll see seminars split into two parts: 1st session gold; 2nd session property rentals.
Personally I think both would be horrific to attend.
GDX is far outperforming gold in this cycle. 469% from mid-2015.
I'm not sure what's eating you JC.
Yes VanEck has been outstanding, although I invested in it far too late to get 400% + return.
Hi P8, it was actually already 2 years ago. Yes, I still hold Gold, and it's interesting how expectation and reality change over time. I remember thinking back then: "could Gold go to $3,000 ? Probably not, but if it did, I would have to sell". Now, not only am I not selling, but I have been buying more in different forms. Greed is a dangerous thing though, I remember losing badly during the .com bubble after being significantly up.
at least you are not putting only 20% down like housing
one of my favourite trading sayings is
Fear turns into Greed at breakeven... its a hard one to learn
You timed it well Yvil, the price and trend of gold over the last 2-3 years has changed significantly since central banks started buying in earnest. Before that it was easier to suppress the precious metals prices when there was less demand for physical metal.
This 2019 article discusses some of the price management. If anyone is interested then scroll half-way down to
Gold Suppression: It’s Not a Question of IF but to WHAT EXTENT
The stuff I fixed 6 months ago looking ugly now. Good luck to those who waited.
Just a shame our milk price only holding up because of a weak dollar and not increased overseas demand. That can be a very fickle basis for our coming year's income.
I am just fixing for 6 months at the moment as interest rates are falling. Would also like the GDT was holding up better.
Now that sounds like a typical farmer, always something to look gloomily at
;)
Wilco, some have been loudly and repeatedly advising to fix short, for 6 months...
Fixing short was good advice Yvil.. Like many though my view of the world was/is coloured by my day to day experiences of life. As a farmer my own little world was trucking along quite nicely so I thought all the 'noise' about how tough the NZ economy was doing was exaggerated. So at sub 6% I went long, and now get to regret it for two more years.
Sorry to hear that.
Computer infrastructure company IREN, founded by Sydney brothers Dan and Will Roberts, is now more valuable than the entire ASX. IREN specializes in large-scale data centres for AI and bitcoin mining, and its market capitalization recently reached about $19 billion - surpassing corporations like Qantas and even the ASX itself.
The ASX is struggling to keep pace with the world, with forward looking companies being rejected or pushed out. Aussie and ASX blew the opportunity with IREN, and now, years later, companies such as Locate Technologies Limited are leaving.
IREN's stock price is going mental and I'm kicking myself for not backing up the truck. 980% return in 6 months, If you had bought in Feb 2024, you're looking 1,580% returns.
https://thenightly.com.au/business/iren-company-built-by-two-sydney-bro…
the entire ASX
maybe just the ASX capitalization, as in the operatpr ASX not all listed on
no surprises there ASX is a mess
Yes, but the market cap of ASX is approximately USD7.57 billion and established in 1987 - sizable company in itself. IREN was established in 2018 and has a market cap of approx USD16.7-16.9 billion.
Sad indictment on the exchange that they didn't court IREN, arguably one of the best stocks in the world at present.
Its interesting, Ukraine is now using drones to attack up to 1200 miles inside of Russia against oil refineries etc, yet Russia cannot even send a drone across polish boarders...
The west is in an interesting position here, where it can aide Ukraine to attack ANY where inside Russia , but Russia cannot do this inside Europe.
Interesting times indeed
expect things to escalate quickly here
Glencore has received a taxpayer-funded bailout from the Australian federal and Queensland state govts worth up to AUD600 million to keep its Mount Isa copper smelter and Townsville refinery operational for an additional three years. The rescue package is designed to safeguard more than 600 direct jobs and hundreds of additional roles at downstream facilities, including the nearby Phosphate Hill fertilizer plant.
Cost to taxpayer is $333K per job.
https://www.wsj.com/business/glencore-gets-government-bailout-to-keep-m…
Very lucky country
until it is not
Land of countless rorts. Remember when taxpayers contributed ~$50k in subsidies to each Australian assembled vehicle
Rabobank: Gold Confirms The World Has Passed The Fiscal Event Horizon
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Oct 08, 2025 - 04:45 AM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
France is once again engulfed in political crisis following the resignation of Prime Minister Lecornu just hours after his cabinet was sworn in. Lecornu lasted less than a month in the job, a tenure that makes Liz Truss look like Lord Liverpool. Jordan Bardella, President of the right-wing National Rally, has urged President Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call fresh elections.
Lecornu’s is the third French government to collapse in the last 12 months. Former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier lost the Premiership in December following failed attempts to pass budget measures and Francois Bayrou similarly lost a no-confidence vote last month after his attempts to rein in France’s runaway deficit were rejected by parties on the left and right.
French 10y OAT yields rose 6bps to 3.57% while 10y Bunds were comparative outperformers with yields rising just 2bps to 2.72%. The 10y OAT spread of 85bps is now 2bps wider than the spread between 10y Italian bonds and the equivalent Bund, highlighting Italy’s newfound status as an island of (comparative) political stability on the continent.
Equity markets took a similarly dim view of the latest evidence that France lacks the political capacity to pull the country out of its fiscal nosedive. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell by 0.41% to underperform all of the major American indices as well as the Nikkei, KOSPI, CSI300, ASX200 and TAIEX. The picture was even gloomier when drilling down into the performance of the CAC 40, which recorded a 1.36% fall on the day while the German DAX closed flat.
The Euro fell by 0.26% to 1.1711 while Sterling – presumably operating on the ‘least dirty shirt’ theory of comparative value (though, the British public finances and political apparatus are little better than the French) – rose slightly to close at 1.3485. The Dollar and gold were the big winners on Monday. The DXY index gained 0.39%, while gold rose another 1.92% to close at (another) all-time high of $3,960/oz and USDJPY gapped higher following news that Abe-acolyte Sanae Takaichi had won the LDP leadership race in Japan.
The S&P 500 also hit a fresh all-time high to close at 6,740 as chipmaker AMD surged 24% on news that it had struck a multibillion-dollar partnership with OpenAI to build AI data centers with AMD chips. The deal involves OpenAI purchasing 6 gigawatts worth of chips and also receiving warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares if certain milestones for chip deployment are reached. This kind of circularity is becoming a feature of the AI frenzy, with NVIDIA (the market leader in AI chips and AMD’s main competitor) recently announcing a $100bn investment in OpenAI, the proceeds of which would be used to buy – you guessed it – NVIDIA chips.
Given the confluence of events and price action in gold and equities on Monday, perhaps some European investors have been reading Bloomberg and are now adopting the ‘Turkish portfolio’ of 50% gold, 50% equities as their formerly developed markets behave more and more like an emerging market?
AI sceptics (including yours truly) have regularly made comparisons to the ‘irrational exuberance’ that characterized the dotcom boom and subsequent bust. There are many similarities, whether it be the classic ‘new era thinking’ (usually a harbinger of impending doom), the techno-optimism or the eyewatering P/E levels. But there are differences, too. This time around the companies driving the boom do actually have earnings, and perhaps it makes sense to pay very high valuations to get a slice of those earnings if you are afraid that your country has passed the fiscal event horizon and the only way out is a general inflation via debasement of the currency that will obliterate the value of your wages and savings.
The gold price (and arguably stock prices, and arguably house prices in many markets) is sending a signal that such a general inflation is already underway. Some might quibble with that characterization, pointing to EM central bank buying as a the main driver of the gold price rally, but why are those central banks buying gold in the first place? Does the breakdown of the liberal globalized trading system that drove inflation lower and lower for decades presage lower, or higher, inflation in the future? Perhaps the answer to that question explains why the 10y Treasury yield busted through the top of a 40-year trend channel in 2022 and has stayed up there ever since?
Signs of breakdown of the globalized trading system are not hard to find. Fears have been stoked in Australia after China’s state-owned China Mineral Resources Group placed a ban on Dollar-denominated purchases of iron ore from Australia’s BHP. Australian politicians have sought to downplay the action as a “commercial matter” related to pricing, but the real tell is that iron ore shipments denominated in Chinese Yuan continue to flow.
The international market for iron ore is monopsonistic – China is the only buyer of scale because China produces ~54% of global steel output. The market has also, historically, been oligopolistic, with Australia and Brazil being the two suppliers of scale who could feed China’s insatiable demand for the raw material. However, that is changing as Chinese demand moderates and supply sources are diversified by Belt and Road-backed (not a coincidence) Simandou mine in West Africa coming online. Those factors have seen China gain market power over Australia, and it appears that China is now using that market power to pressure Australia to receive payment for what is (by far) it’s most important export in CNY, rather than USD.
This episode is likely to be much larger than a commercial disagreement between a mining company and an importing company (whose state-backed nature should not be forgotten). Xi Jinping was clear at last month’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that he wanted to increase the global role of the CNY, and thereby chip away at the USD’s position as the world reserve currency. That would weaken the US’s ability to use the Dollar as a weapon by applying sanctions, increasing the cost of Dollar-denominated borrowing or cutting other countries out of the SWIFT payments system.
A logical next step could be for Chinese exporters to require Australian importers to pay for manufactured goods in CNY, rather than Dollars. Using China’s market power as a major exporter of goods would create demand for the currency that they are offering in exchange for Australia’s exports, and pry Australia further away from the Dollar. Of course, the United States does not want this to happen and neither does Australia, because it wants Dollars to pay for its imports from every other country and also to pay for the AUKUS submarines that it has committed to buy from the United States.
Is China about to tell the Land Down Under that it is time to choose? We’ve been warning of those sorts of risks in this missive for years now. Economic statecraft (not collaborative free trade policed by the WTO) is the law of the jungle, and it’s eat or be eaten.
Its contagious
"The EU has announced plans to hike tariffs on imported steel in a move the UK's steel industry has said could be "perhaps the biggest crisis" it has ever faced.
The commission has set out plans to cut the amount of steel that can be imported into the bloc by half - beyond which the new 50% tariffs will apply."
these needed to be applied 10 years ago
back then the senate and congress where still investing without insider trading rules
hang them all high
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