Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The big change today was ICBC launching a 4.25% one year fixed mortgage rate, a new market low. Also, WBS, First Credit Union, and China Construction Bank all changed rates too. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank changed rates down today and they no longer have any 4% rates for terms of 4 years or less. General Finance changed as well. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
STEADY GROWTH IN BUYERS MARKET
Real estate agencies estimated to have earned $476 mln in residential sales commissions in Q3 this year. This is down from the almost $500 mln earned in Q2-2025, but up nearly 8% above Q3-2024. The latest results come in a clear buyers market with transactions up even if house prices are not. Volume is the key to agent earnings, not price.
SLOWLY BUT SURELY, BANKS TRY TO SHIFT AWAY FROM BROKERS
Mortgage brokers are not feeling the love from Westpac who has moved to ditch trail commission on home loans, even after consultation with the adviser groups. Westpac has now joined ANZ and ASB who 'never' had trail commissions (but all still pay upfront commissions). BNZ and Kiwibank still pay trails. Rankling the brokers is that Westpac partnered with Dosh earlier this year to offer home loans without financial advice and a loyalty cashback reward. Westpac is burnishing the transition with a 0.30% top-up commission payment which will apply to new loans drawn between today and 31 May 2026, effectively increasing the total up front commission to 0.90% during this period.
A PUBLIC WARNING
The FMA has warned HP Capital Limited, trading as Finbase, for serious breaches of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 and related regulations. Essentially, this warning is about how Finbase tried to promote its wholesale offers using retail language and techniques in its advertising and promotion. Details here.
NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% in its Wednesday session so far. That puts it -1.9% lower over the past five working days. It is up +1.9% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +3.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed today so far. Kathmandu, Scales, Serko, and Mainfreight lead the gainers, while Meridian, Fletcher, Vital Healthcare, and Mainfreight are the main decliners
MILK POWDER PRICES DIP AGAIN
There was a dairy Pulse auction overnight for milk powders. Prices for both SMP and WMP dipped -0.5% in USD terms, extending the easing we have noted recently. But the exchange rate fell faster, so in NZD both commodities were up about +1%.
AFFIRMED
S&P today affirmed their NZ sovereign credit rate at AA+, Stable.
STILL IN MILD DEFLATION, OFFICIALLY
China said its consumer prices stayed in mild deflation, dow running -0.3% in September from a year ago. Beef and lamb prices are rising now, but milk prices are still falling.
MODERATE DEFLATION EASES
Meanwhile Chinese producer prices, already on moderate deflation, eased back to a -2.3% decrease, from August's -2.9%.
MOVING BACK TO TREND GROWTH
In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for Q3-2025 suggests that the Australian economy is only expanding at the long term trend pace, but the pace is picking up marginally. They expect 2025 to come in below trend, but 2026 to edge up to trend levels.
SWAP RATES HOLD, LONGER RATES DROP
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be little-changed today at the short end but lower for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bps on Tuesday at 2.55%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps from yesterday at 4.22%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.08%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Tuesday's rate down -1 bp to 4.09%. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.02%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HOLD
The local equity market is now up only +0.1% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down up +1.0%. Hong Kong is up +1.3% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.2% from yesterday. Singapore is also up +0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session with a late dip ending down -0.2% for the day.
OIL SLIPS AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 at just over US$58.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just und US$62.50/bbl. (Apart from the brief April 2025 dip, it is low back to February 2021 levels.)
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few more trades today and the price has held at $56/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES TO NEW HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$41 from yesterday at this time, now at US$4181/oz and new highs. Silver is lower at just over US$52/oz.
NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, still at 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 88 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 49.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps at just under 61.8.
BITCOIN DIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$112,810 and down another -1.3% from this time this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.9%.
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48 Comments
Why is the price of oil dropping ?
Basically, debt and recession.
If you print debt faster than you do stuff, the 'price' goes down, right? But the ability to buy said stuff, obviously does too - although extending debt, cheapening debt-servicing and extending credit-periods are ways to stave off the inevitable.
Essentially, money doesn't indicate real value when it isn't tethered to anything.
And what isn't extended debt, is a lessening of doing stuff. Called production, by some.
Some of that debt is unrepayable government-issued subsidies, up front.
Not sure that stacks up PDK. If you print debt (increase the money supply) that causes inflation and prices go up.
Not if it's held in abeyance.
Investments, pensions, kiwisaver,
And then there's what they call stagflation...
I’ll let the supermarket know that they should be reducing prices.
Only if it remains in the economy.....where is the credit created going (and how fast)?....into equities, property, gold, crypto etc...all largely existing (there is little expansion of output). and much of it US centred....so the 'money' available to pay the true cost of say oil has been removed from the economy and consequently the price is what the economy can pay and remain functional....until it can no longer.
Oversupply and weakening demand with trade war risks. There is predicted to be a large oil glut next year.
From what I've read, the end of the Israeli conflict was the cause for the recent drop.
.
When announcing Blackrock's Q3 results, Larry Fink said that the global financial system is “just at the beginning of the tokenization of all assets".
Fink emphasized that tokenization - the process of representing real-world assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and ETFs through digital tokens on a blockchain - will transform global capital markets by democratizing access, reducing costs, and enabling faster, 24/7 transactions. He described it as the next major phase of digital finance innovation, comparable to the rise of ETFs in the 1990s.
Blackrock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has surpassed $100 billion in assets, becoming its most profitable ETF.
In some ways, the crypto bros have a head start on the normies.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/10/14/blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-were-at-…
Yeesht. Sounds more like adding another layer of 'things' to speculate on (buy/sell + make bets) as the current systems are doomed to fail as humans realise their faith is the only thing maintaining 'value' in their bets/decisions.
If it all collapsed, people would be destitute and would value real physical things again. Resources, wood, food, shelter etc and the value would reset en masse. Instead the world conglomerates decide "hey, you know what will keep the wheel spinning, confuse people further from the truth and people putting their pokie winnings back in the machine....more to bet on!"
Oh the world we live in.
Gaza back in Palestinian control for < 72 hours and Hamas are already executing people in the streets in broad daylight. Lining them up and shooting them in the back of the head.
Where are the left now? Crickets.....
Can Chloe, Greta and all the other kafeyah wearing fruit loops report to Gaza immediately. They have a warm welcome for you to show you their appreciation.
And the number of Palestinians killed by Israel today?
Silly me, of course, they're not human.
Funny how folk jump the colonial fence to suit their narrative.
Pointing out the destruction and tragedy of human wastage, on one side in retaliation does not remove the fact of the well documented Hamas brutality on their own people. They are of the same murderous psyche and bloodthirstiness as maniacs and psychopaths throughout history such as Vlad the Impaler for example. Perhaps they would contend that an end per a Kalashnikov is more humane than the end of a sharpened stake. Palestinians will never have any hope of freedom, security or nationhood while under Hamas control.
Because one is against what Israel has been doing doesn't mean support for Hamas.
This is the bogus rhetorical technique that Seymour has been using to keep gutless (spineless?) Luxon in his box
Oh really???
Point me to a single incident of criticism of Hamas by the left, just one. The free Palestine movement is about the destruction of Israel, not the freedom of Gaza.
Albanese?
No it doesn't. And I don't.
But I support Palestinians - and always ask why?
So why Hamas?
They wouldn't exist, if what?
Oh, yeah... Like most angry young, disenfranchised men, ask what caused the disenfranchisement? Mostly you can tract it straight to us - tends to be avoided, does that.
It's a bit like Profile's link re carbon - too many folk curtail their perspective so they can fit their narrative in, unchallenged. Runs into trouble, does perspective curtailment.
"...too many folk curtail their perspective so they can fit their narrative in, unchallenged"
Indeed.
Absolute rot. The next chapter in this forever conflict will be humanitarian exodus from Gaza to Israel as Hamas look to reassert control and rearm.
All they had to do was free the hostages 18 months ago and this would all have ended then.
Like most angry young, disenfranchised men, ask what caused the disenfranchisement? Mostly you can tract it straight to us
This is true Power. Don't forget Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. The Anglosphere has contributed to much destruction.
Oil! It was tribal and warlike up until around 1914 but WW1 and the realisation of a mechanical motorised military, plus Henry Ford etc, ushered in the age of oil. At that point the historic century on century of the way of the people, how they had always sorted things out for themselves, simply got trampled and swept away by the seekers and exploiters of those hitherto undiscovered riches. And then in the middle of all the shaking out of the lot of it, borders previously never in existence suddenly imposed by outsiders, Israel race, religion and aggression , thrust itself headlong into the turmoil.
"Hamas are already executing people in the streets in broad daylight"
Do you please have link ?
That's terrible, just horrible.
Why don't you light a candle Yvil?
We don't really know the full story. Those executed were accused of preying on the weak and innocent. That's the story coming out of Gaza. In the aftermath of such chaos, death and destruction it would be surprising if we didn't see harsh justice being meted out on the street. The onlookers seemed to be cheering it on. Of course this is shocking and due process should have been followed. But do the systems to achieve this still exist? Is their a functioning courthouse or even a prison? This stage of the war could be even more unpleasant than the active combat stage.
We don't really know the full story.
Yeah we do. It goes ‘murderous bastards are murdering other murderous bastards.’ And so it continues.
I only read a headline and wasn't sure who was doing what. Is Hamas killing those who informed to the Israelis about Hamas positions etc. Or something else
Wow. This is great. The DOJ has filed today a civil forfeiture complaint against approx 127,271 Bitcoin, currently worth approximately USD15 billion, that are proceeds and instruments of a 'pig butchering' operation - one of the largest of its kind ever. The rat poison is already in the custody of the U.S. govt and out of the hands of the criminal leaders. It's unclear to me how the U.S. was able to get their hands on it.
This is the largest forfeiture action in the history of the DOJ.
https://sea.mashable.com/tech/40141/the-doj-details-a-15-billion-pig-bu…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/bitcoin-doj-chen-zhi-pig-butchering-sca…
Note: The head honcho in all this is is Chen Zhi, a big-time supporter of the Cambodian People’s Party and serves as an advisor to the Council of Ministers, both in Hun Manet’s current government and back in Hun Sen’s administration.
Putting together the threads, I'm thinking there is an Aotearoa connection with one of the related fixers being a South African who used to ply his trade from Tāmaki Makaurau.
Here are the BTC addresses:
- bc1qeth6n6ryxexvkx34wnx3nuynun4474h3j0gkhw
- bc1q2we5eqjj8je6lz9xwjattpc3pn4jejc5h0s70f
- bc1qnujzvts45qka3cr2eqqw8ur3q6g6s0ze2wlk5m
- bc1qw4fxztd5u3sl7vrcqwk2a8v5zh5dllvckx3tlt
"Leading credit agency S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed New Zealand's AA+ rating with a stable outlook, but noted budget deficits and debt need to be tackled.
"...progress in tackling the state of government finances might lead to an upgrade...
"Indications of this would include the general government deficit contracting to less than 3 percent of GDP, and net general government debt or interest expenses falling on a structural basis to less than 30 percent of GDP and 5 percent of government revenues, respectively."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/576011/global-rating-agency-reaffir…
You’d think a downgrade would be on the cards. Maybe next time.
Sweet. We have a great credit rating which is important for our borrowing so we can build all that infrastructure we need, right?
Right?
4.25% for one year now. If RBNZ did a double double (2 x 0.5%) then we could see <4% this year! Unlikely IMO but possible.
Half of voters want Luxon gone: https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360852957/chris-bishop-emerges-success…
To be fair you’d have to be staunch right wing to say NZ is better now than before the election. Whether that’s Nationals fault or RBNZs fault is a matter of debate.
Half of voters don't vote national so they would say that anyway.
Did the poll bother to ask how many wanted Hipkins gone?
Even among National supporters, nearly one in four (23%) want a change at the top
Did the poll bother to ask how many wanted Hipkins gone? & how many Labour supporters of that view?
If it didn't, the poll can be ignored as part of the usual MSM narrative driven agenda
Quote at the bottom: "Voters don't decide issues, they decide who will decide issues." In Switzerland people vote directly on big issues, like joining the EU, for example, the sole reason Switzerland is not part of the EU.
The UK had a referendum on leaving the EU.
Personally I’m not a big fan of that concept for a number of reasons.
The UK is also saddled with far too much US debt, so if a mass exodus occurs form the USD, they are stuffed. I was in the UK when the vote came for leaving the EU. the campaign to leave was based on hatred for immigration and the promise of freedom from EU laws, frames as restrictions (protecting fisheries, farming etc). So many cried when they saw the results as the majority who voted out were rural small town, and majority of urban areas voted in. It was a sad day indeed.
Albeit without the history of being famous for international banking with questionable checks for account holders and transactions, possibly being a big builder for their economy to what it is today, Switzerland is a lovely place. Picturesque scenery, nice people, but my wallet practically cried and bled last time I went from the general cost.
That is very polite! Well done.
I did laugh a little at your summation of WW2 history.
Restaurant brands small shareholders will be popping bubbly with all the big gains this week! But shhh, dont remind them that their shares are still down around 60 percent since 2020. So much for being an owner or generating any investment returns
they should be able to reduce Head office staff here
Yeah "should"
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