Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut most of its fixed rates, GoLend cuts its rates. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ cut all its TD rates. GoLend reduced its rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BUSINESS BASE RATE CHANGE
ANZ said its Working Capital Base Rate has been reduced by -40 bps to 10.8%. (ANZ adds a risk margin to that for most business borrowers.)
SPIKE IN MORTGAGEE SALES
Bargain hunters being spoiled for choice as a flood of mortgagee sales hits the market.
FARMERS START TO SPEND
The sales of new tractors roared back in September, up +24% from a year ago to 291 in the month. This was the most since September 2022. But in the context of the ten-year average for a September being 342, as good as this latest data is, it is still -15% lower than that average.
REAL MEAT EXPORTS SURGE
Strong global demand saw red meat exports reach $717 mln in August, up +22% from a year ago, according to Meat Industry Association (MIA) analysis. The US was the largest customer taking +9% more. China recovered as a customer with their demand rising +39% into second place. Third was demand from the UK, up more than +100%.
NZX50 FIRMS SLIGHTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.7% in its Friday session so far. That puts it -1.3% lower over the past five working days. It is up +1.8% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a very sharp -2.7% today so far. Also down were Vulcan Steel, Investore, and SkyCity casino. But Vector, PFI, Channel Infrastructure and Summerset lead the gainers.
MORE DEBT APPETITE
The RBNZ's Credit Conditions survey of banks shows a significant increase in "credit availability" (ie demand for debt), largely driven by demand for residential mortgages, but also commercial property, and large corporates.
SECURITISED VEHICLE LOANS POPULAR
Franchised vehicle lender MTF has sold on $300 mln in securised debt, touting "a strong pricing outcome, the second lowest in MTF’s history". They say 90% of it was rated AAA(sf). They also said "over 90%) of the main bidders were domestic including KiwiSaver funds.
EXPORT REBOUND
After two months of declines, Singapore's exports rose almost +7% in September from a year ago, largely on the back of recovering exports of electronic goods.
SWAP RATES DIP AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be lower today again across the board on global trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp on Thursday at 2.54%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down another -5 bps from yesterday at 4.12%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.75%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 3.99%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Thursday's rate down -4 bps to 4.00%. The UST 10yr yield is down -8 bps at 3.95%.
EQUITIES RETREAT
The local equity market is now down -0.6% in Friday trade so far. And the ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened also down -0.7%. Hong Kong is down -1.2% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.8% from yesterday. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session with a -0.6% loss for the day.
OIL DROPS HARD, ESPECIALLY IN THE US
The oil price in the US is down -US$1.50 at just over US$57/bbl and the international Brent price is now just over US$60.50/bbl. US oil is down -6.7% for the week, Brent is down -3.4%.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have only been a small handful of tiny trades today and the price has held at $56/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES TO YET ANOTHER NEW HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$98 from yesterday at this time, now at US$4326/oz and a new high. That's a +7.5% gain just for the week. Silver is now at US$53.80/oz and up +7.0% for the week.
NZD TURNS LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is back down -30 bps from yesterday, now at 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 48.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -40 bps at just on 61.7.
BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$108,636 and down another -2.5% from this time this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just under +/- 2%.
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34 Comments
We are the 5th richest country in the world: https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/360857829/how-rich-nz-really-and-what-nee…
With a per capita net worth of €302,900 ($618,000), New Zealand has moved into fifth place, sitting behind only Switzerland, the United States, Singapore and Australia.
When real estate is removed from the data, our standing quickly slips to eighth, placing us behind all the aforementioned countries. Our wealth without housing is only €133,000 ($271,000).
Still bloody impressive, so much for "the Ponzi". Without housing we are somehow ahead of Aussie, not sure how that's possible with all their retirement savings, seems a bit dodgy.
But in a way this makes sense, many NZers are good savers. I know many people living overseas on good incomes that somehow have almost nothing.
Sorry if this is not negative enough for some commentators. Although I'm sure they will somehow spin it that way. Where is PDK wanting me to read some articles...
Still bloody impressive, so much for "the Ponzi".
Is it? The Allianz report shows that that Aussie and Aotearoa pvte debt is off the hook compared to other countries.
You could call it debt, or you could call it investment. I'm certainly pretty happy that I took out private debt.
Again I know many people living overseas on good incomes that somehow have almost nothing. They also have no debt. But I wouldn't swap with them.
You could call it debt, or you could call it investment. I'm certainly pretty happy that I took out private debt.
That's how most Aussies and Aotearoans think. Hyman Minsky describes it as when specu-punters gain confidence and take on increasing amounts of debt to chase higher returns. This happens through three phases:
Hedge phase: Borrowers can repay both interest and principal from cash flows.
Speculative phase: Borrowers can pay only interest, assuming asset prices will keep rising.
Ponzi phase: Borrowers rely entirely on continued asset appreciation to refinance or repay debt.
When asset growth stalls, these positions unwind rapidly: lenders call in loans, forced selling begins, and asset prices plunge - producing a liquidity crunch and systemic instability known as a Minsky moment.
"That's how most Aussies and Aotearoans think" - and that's why we are the 4th and 5th richest countries in the world.
South Sudan is considered the poorest country in the world. I wonder what their private debt is.
Sudan is probably not the best comparison.
Back to Minsky, his Financial Instability Hypothesis argues that high private debt is not just a symptom but a central cause of financial instability in capitalist economies. According to Minsky, periods of prolonged economic stability encourage risk-taking, which leads to a buildup of private debt and progressively fragile financial structures.
Minsky maintains that stability breeds instability - prolonged periods of stable growth lower perceived risk, encouraging more borrowing and lending, which embeds fragility into the system. When shocks occur, the highly leveraged private sector faces liquidity crises that can trigger widespread defaults and asset price collapses (Minsky Moment).
The BBQ crew will most likely not know of Minsky so it will elicit a 'Yeah Nah' response. But ultimately, it's all about tradeoffs.
The Aussies are more recession proof than almost any other country, very financially stable.
Why? Aussie's GDP growth per capita is basically near zero, even with massive migration inflows.
Can you think of many better countries to live? Maybe Scandinavia if that’s your thing?
I do find it funny that commentators here constantly define NZ as an economic basket case, but that’s only when compared to AU, US, and a few other countries. Most other countries are much worse.
Most other countries are much worse.
True that
The Aussies are more recession proof
perhaps The Aussies HAVE BEEN more recession proof, right now I think they are more exposed then most.
What's that story about the turkeys who rush out to meet the nice farmer for food every morning until about Xmas time
You may be right. But I remember reading similar comments after the GFC.
wow the news just gets darker and darker around the NZ Economy.
all we need now is an AI bubble popping
Are we reading the same report.? Not everything is +ve and you wouldnt want it to be
all we need now is an AI bubble popping
True. Reasonable sharp sell-off in IREN last night. IREN is very much an AI/rat poison play and even if you bought as late as May 2025, you'd be up 9x+. Makes the Ponzi look boring.
The US was the largest customer taking +9% more (meat)
So the US is buying MORE meat from NZ since the tariffs were put in place and they will also pay MORE for that meat. How is this not going to end up as inflation in the US ?
Probably buying from us as we are too stupid to apply reciprocal tariffs.
Shelf prices for beef depends on various factors. The Aussies get bent out of shape when they learn Japanese shoppers pay up to 30% less for Aussie beef, even with 20%+ tariffs and $1 per kg for transport costs.
“In Japan, there are four value offerings ranked Wagyu, Domestic Holstein, Imported Grain-fed (USA and Australia) and Imported Grass-fed (Australia).
“So, with grassfed beef products we are dealing at the less expensive end of the offering where consumers are purchasing on price, more so than eating satisfaction.”
“Secondly, supermarkets in Japan are far less concentrated in their ownership than in Australia with many retailers operating and each having only a small share of the market. No single retailer would constitute more than 10pc of the market overall.
https://www.beefcentral.com/news/comparison-suggests-aussie-beef-retail…
Seems like an unfair comparison.
"No single retailer would constitute more than 10pc of the market overall." - 10pc of Japan is probably about the size of Woolies or Coles. I'm not convinced that Aussie would be better off with lots of tiny chains making up less than 10pc of the market. Not much bigger than a convenience store.
What it means is that the Japanese supermarket ecosystem is more fragmented than Aussie or Aotearoa. It's good for the consumer. Another interesting thing in Japan is people can buy higher priced meat cuts from wholesalers at small volumes.
You can in NZ too. https://www.gilmours.co.nz/
Seems a bit silly to compare to places much bigger.
- NZ South Island wonders why the North Island has cheaper food prices (with ~4x the population)
- NZ wonders why Aussie has cheaper food prices (with ~4x the population)
- Aussie wonders how Japan has cheaper food prices (with ~4x the population)
Japan has a larger popn; has a more fragmented retail ecosystem; and a much more efficient, competitive distribution environment.
The Japanese govt has encouraged this as a way to control price inflation.
With a larger population that works.
Think in terms of NZ hardware retailers- would prices be less if we only had retailers the size of Hammer Hardware, Placemakers, Mitre 10 (non-mega), etc?
The US grain fed cattle yield beef too fatty on its own for hamburgers. They need to blend in leaner imported beef. That suits NZ’s. and especially so since the conversions, dairying which provides well and long accepted manufacturing beef of that type. In simple terms, with or without tariffs, the more Americans that eat burgers, the better for NZ.
We are living in very, very interesting times...
We are living in very, very dangerous times...
Someone’s quote, some time ago “ in a dictatorship it is very dangerous to be right” is coming into play more and more isn’t it.
Is that true, or are times so safe we’ve become accustomed?
If you look at the shit that’s gone down most other decades, this entire century we’ve basically only had Covid and a minor war. so far at least.
Well the goings on in Trumpland, if not a harbinger of the suggested trend, are certainly an indicator that the so called freedom of the press doesn’t include publishing facts that contradict the present President’s infallibility.
Yes. That's why many people are struggling to accept VUCA is the new normal & the MSM DGMs continually pander "crisis" to the latest generation who weren't even born at the last major recession (~1990).
Meanwhile the children born into the 1950s nuclear cold war, students in the late 1960s civic disruptions & Vietnam War, bringing their children into the economic chaos of the 1970s, paying 18% on their mortgages in 1980s, watching their life savings dissappear in 1987 & joined thousands out of work in the early 1990s...
- will open another beer.
Decoupling from the US dollar
"That's a +7.5% gain just for the week."
= a 7.5% dollar devaluation?
Japan’s largest gold retailer, Tanaka Precious Metal Group has temporarily run out of small gold bars amid record-breaking demand. The company announced that it has suspended sales of 5- to 50-gram gold and platinum bars for at least one month.
The shortage does not affect larger bullion (100 grams and above), but smaller bars have completely sold out across Tanaka’s Tokyo branches and online store. Long queues were reported outside its flagship Ginza outlet as buyers rushed to secure remaining inventory before the suspension took effect.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-16/japan-s-tanaka-preci…
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