A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; quiet on the retail rate front, hot on the inflation front, Kiwibank get new Chair, IRD claims compliance success, Future Fund proposed, swaps & NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank, and the Police Credit Union cut fixed rates today. Update: ASB has cut most fixed rates. Details here. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

MORTGAGE TEST RATES
Banks don't like talking about these, saying they aren't much relevant except as edge cases for borrowers under stress. We have a page tracking them. Today SBS dropped their to 6.5%. We would appreciate reader help if you know what other banks have dropped theris to, and when.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Only the Police Credit Union changed rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

ABOVE THE TARGET BAND
Annual CPI inflation rose to fractionally over 3% in the September quarter, with the increase driven by electricity, rent and local authority rates and payments. The government's claim it "remains within [the RBNZ's] target band" isn't actually correct. Perhaps they didn't bother to look at the detail. (They should know better.) But despite the breach, some analysts see a soft core inside the hard outer.

INSURANCE A HARD PRESSURE
There are other costs we can track in the CPI data, insurance being one of them. In the year to September, house insurance premiums rose another +5.6% from a year ago. But a year ago they were rising at a +22.2% rate, and the year before that at a +21.2% rate. So from five years ago, dwelling insurance is up more than +60%. From ten years ago it is up +127%. For contents cover, premium cost is up +9.3% from a year ago, up +64% in five years, double in ten years. For cars, those premiums are actually unchanged in a year, up +40% in five years, up +75% in ten years. Health insurance costs are up like dwelling insurance.

ENERGY COSTS HIGH I
The cost of electricity got special mention in today's CPI release. It was up +11.3% from a year ago, and that was the largest year-on-year jump since 1989 and back then, that was caused by GST. For a non-tax increase, this latest is the most since the 1987 reforms and the removal of state subsidies. Also worth noting is that most of the large gentailers are still State-owned (by 51%).

ENERGY COSTS HIGH II
It is also probably worth noting that natural gas prices for consumers are rising at a +15% rate too. The unique thing about this Q3-2025 rise is that it is the second quarter in a row of +15% pa rises, and we haven't seen that in 40 years.

WHAT's AHEAD?
The CPI out-turn for the September quarter is history. Analysts are looking forward. Westpac economists see about a one-in-three chance the Reserve Bank will do another jumbo sized rate cut next month, which could see the OCR end the year at 2.0%.

CHANGE AT THE TOP
Lawyer and serial director Susan Peterson has been appointed at the new Chair of Kiwibank to presumably guiding the state-owned bank to a new ownership model. After eight years as a Bell Gully lawyer, she joined ANZ as General Counsel in 2000, leaving to be a professional director in 2013. The roster is long, and includes ASB. She replaces Labour-appointed Jon Hartley who has had the role since 2019. Hartey was a ex-Anglican priest and did not seek reappointment.

NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was little-changed in its Monday session so far. That puts it -1.3% lower over the past five working days. It is up +1.8% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is basically unchanged and embedding Friday's big drop. Ryman, Mercury, Gentrack, and SkyCity casino lead the gainers, Briscoes, Stride, Vista Group, and Air NZ lead the losses.

SPECIAL POWERS
The IRD is touting its tax-collecting prowess. In its 2025 Annual Report released today, it says its 'compliance efforts' delivered $1.4 bln of more tax, far exceeding targets and showing a return of $11.81 for every dollar spent. It is amazing what you can achieve when you don't have the 'burden of proof' requirement.

A NEW SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND PROPOSED
Most KiwiSaver assets are invested offshore (60% as at June). Most NZ Super Fund investments are also offshore. That makes perfect sense for diversified risk management for retirement savings. But we also have an infrastructure deficit and funding what needs to be done is a real issue. The opposition Labour Party has launched a policy to build a Future Fund for that purpose, using state-owned assets as security for such a fund.

ON HOLD
In China, their central bank kept their key lending rates at record lows for a fifth consecutive month in October, as was expected.

NOT AS BAD, BUT STILL RETREATING
The rate of fall in China's new house prices mellowed in September according to official data. They were down overall by -2.3%. Shanghai remained the outlier with a +5.6% rise, slightly below August’s +5.9% increase. But for resales, it is still tough, with none of their 70 largest urban areas reporting a gain, either month-on-month or year-on-year, not even Shanghai. If you buy new, you can only still sell into a falling market.

BIG CLAIMS, MODEST EVIDENCE
In a surprise to no-one, China said its Q3-2025 GDP was up +4.8% from a year ago. They also reported that retail sales were up +3.0% in September (a one-year low and vs +3.4% in August) whereas industrial production was up +6.5% in September (+5.2% in August. Regular readers will know that we also track electricity production as a hard check against these other top-line claims. That only showed a +1.5% rise from a year ago. It regularly trails claims of big industrial output and is a core reason we are sceptical of those outsized claims.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be slightly higher today across the board on global trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp on Friday at 2.53%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps from this morning at 4.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 4.03%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Friday's rate down -4 bps to 3.96%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.02%.

EQUITIES RETREAT
The local equity market is now up almost +0.1% in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is soft but little-changed in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened very strong, up +2.7%. Hong Kong is matching it, up +2.3% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.7% to start the week. However, Singapore is down -0.6% at its open. The Wall Street futures market suggests the S&P500 will open +0.7% ahead in theri Monday trade tomorrow.

OIL STAYS LOW
The oil price in the US is marginally firmer at just under US$57.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$61/bbl. US oil is down -6.7% for the week, Brent is down -3.4%.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few trades today and the price has held at $55.90/NZU. But late on Friday there were some chunky trades recorded. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$12 from this morning's open, now at US$4263/oz. That's well off its ATH.

NZD UNCHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is holding from this morning at 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 61.9.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$108,052 and down a minor -0.6% from this morning. Volatility has again been modest, at +/- 1.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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