Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HIGHER, BUT IT MIGHT BE TOPPING OUT
Joblessness rose to 5.3% in Q3-2025 which is its highest level since late 2016. But hours-worked rose for first time in almost two years.
LOWER, BUT NO SIGNS IT'S BOTTOMING OUT
The overnight full dairy auction brought lower prices yet again, down -2.4% in USD terms this time, down -1.0% in NZD terms. Butter (-4.3%) and cheddar cheese (-6.6%) were the big decliners this time, but the key WMP also fell -2.7%. If it wasn't for China buying, the situation could have been worse as a bearish tone was very evident and markets for milk fats (butter, cheese) are now oversupplied. This was the sixth consecutive drop, taking the fall since early August to more than -10%. So the softness is mounting up now and analysts will be dusting off their new season $10/kgMS payout forecasts for a serious review.
STABLE TO IMPROVING
The Reserve Bank's latest Financial Stability Report says fewer borrowers are now falling behind on debt repayments, while borrowers who had previously been in default are finding ways to 'mitigate stress'. It likes trading banks' strength. It judges the main risks to financial stability are external. Fragmentation of global trade and finance, and ongoing uncertainty continue to present risks. Elevated global equity valuations, in areas such as tech stocks, and growing government debt levels in many advanced economies are also vulnerabilities, they say.
HELPING WITH CAR INSURANCE
Readers should note that we have added a new interactive feature to our content (in the desktop sidebar, in random ad positions on mobile). This tool gives a data-based indication of the range of cost of premiums for car insurance. You only need enter the registration number of the vehicle to get this indication. The premium data is powered by our partnership with Quashed.
THE AIR IS GOING OUT OF COMMODITY PRICES
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell slightly in October to be +4.4% higher than year-ago levels. Dairy prices fell harder in the month. Due to dairy’s high weighting, this was enough to offset rising prices in meat and wool (+3.0%), forestry (+1.1%), and aluminium (+5.1%). The overall index has drifted lower since May, coinciding with the peak in dairy prices that month. In NZD terms the Index rose 1.5% in October from September due to the NZD weakening yet again. In local currency, these commodity prices are up +12.0% for the year although that boost is drifting off its earlier highs.
NZX50 STALLS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is now down -0.1% so far on Wednesday. That puts it +1.4% higher over the past five working days. It is up +4.0% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +7.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has risen another +1.1% so far today. Air NZ leads the gains as Vista, Kathmandu, Napier Port all rise while Goodman, Infratil, Summerset, and Precinct decline on mixed NZX trade.
BOND INVESTORS CAN'T GET ENOUGH
It's a good time for the NZ Government to borrow. Demand for their bond issuance is high which is driving down the interest rate cost. Tomorrow there will be yet another $450 mln on offer in the next NZGB tender, and more will follow at that level. But Westpac is pointing out that to meet its current year funding targets, Treasury will have to run two more syndicated taps until June 2026 and they will have to raise about $10 bln in total. In the current market, that should easily find funding.
DOUBLING UP
The Government is increasing the Crown Liquidity Facility (CLF) that it provides to the Local Government Funding Agency Limited (LGFA) to support local government sector borrowing. The increase is from $1.5 bln to $3 bln. The term has been extended from December 2031 to June 2037. LGFA is the largest lender to the local government sector, with approximately 80% market share of annual sector borrowing and has loans outstanding to councils and Council-Controlled Organisations of $23.4 bln. The Crown owns 20% of the paid up capital of LGFA and thirty councils own the remaining 80%.
EXPANSION HOLDS EVEN IF SENTIMENT SOFTENS
The private S&P Global China services PMI has remained modestly expansionary in October, and still better than the official version. The sector continues supported by a faster rise in overall new business, although export sales fell modestly. Meanwhile, 'efficiency' drives led to staffing levels reducing in part due to cost concerns. Despite higher input prices, output charges fell fractionally, while business confidence regarding the year ahead softened.
SWAP RATES LOWER
Wholesale swap rates probably fell today on global forces. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp on Tuesday to 2.53%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.73%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bp at 4.11%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Tuesday's rate is up +1 bp to 4.10%. The UST 10yr yield is down -6 bps at 4.05%.
EQUITIES ALL LOWER, SOME SHARPLY
The local equity market is now down -0.3% in Wednesday trade so far. However, the ASX200 is down another -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down a very sharp -4.2%. Hong Kong is down -1.0% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.6% to start their Wednesday trade. Singapore is down -1.1% at its open, an outsized shift lower for them. Wall Street faded sharply again in Tuesday trade and the S&P500 ended down -1.2%. If you were following along you will have noticed that the NZX50 is the least-affected by the global mood among the markets we follow.
OIL SOFTER
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 at just over US$60/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$64/bbl.
CARBON PRICE DROPS AGAIN
There have been a few more trades today but those have prices down at $50/NZU and its lowest since May. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFTER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$48 from yesterday, now at US$3938/oz.
NZD FALLS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from yesterday at this time at just over 56.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -40 bps at 49.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -50 bps at just under 61.1.
BITCOIN DROPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$100,370 and down a massive -6.2% from this time yesterday. That's a -13% drop since October 29. Volatility has been high at just over +/- 3.8%.
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53 Comments
DOUBLING UP: Was telling my kids about how we used to have double happys on Guy Fawkes, we did all sorts of stupid things. Now kids aren’t even allowed to walk out the house by themselves. People say kids have it easy these days, but in a way we had it easier as we had our freedom.
And to make this an economic post, man fireworks aren’t cheap these days. You don’t get much for a hundy.
I still buy a big box. I expect one year soon on Nov 6 a Government will announce that they're banned. Want to get as many bangs in as possible
You have strayed off the fireworks topic there, but yeah.
If Labour get in they will probably tax banging as well.
There used to be a baddy wrestler called IRS. Can picture him peeping through the curtains and filming for proof. https://prowrestling.fandom.com/wiki/Mike_Rotunda
Fireworks might be off topic for you…
Rolande is right, you don't get much for a hundy anymore
And no cameras to record the hijinks we’d get up to.
Same with burning couches, etc outside Otago Uni flats, and firing skyrockets at anything that moved. Eggs and waterbombs were favoured projectiles as well. Those were the days!
remember the sky rocket fights between the two halls of res in otago... that turned against the fire brigade that showed up....
we where so much better towards authority back then as well, TVNZ One news headliner...
boomers where no angels
Yep, they used to fire them through a vacuum cleaner hose, they'd go straight as an arrow. Putting the two cent pieces on the end so they'd smash through windows was a bit over the top though...
We had the ability to make our own fun and mistakes.
We could blowup neighbours letter boxes with double happys.
Government to ban homelessness? https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360876382/minister-reveals-government-…
No idea how it would work . Others have tried and failed. I was in Auckland CBD last weekend for the marathon and all I can say is blurgghh. It’s been a minute since I’d been into the CBD, it’s definitely getting worse.
Blue wave results in current US elections.
A powerful message to Johnson that to end the Government shutdown he is going to have to start serious negotiations with the Democratics regarding healthcare. They are not buying that the shutdown is the Democrats fault.
The Latin American ETF is now up 42% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. The region is undergoing a profound structural transformation.
El Salvador and Argentina have been leading the charge, while Bolivia is currently experiencing a major political and economic shift. Chile could be next, with elections on November 16th potentially signaling a major change in leadership.
The countries showing progress are not just individual success stories; they’re emerging as models whose momentum could easily spread across the region. Latin America is open for business, and the US administration increasingly recognizes the region’s importance in supplying the natural resources critical to current technological advancements and reshoring efforts.
Despite their recent performance, most Latin American stocks still trade at mid to low single-digit P/E ratios.
Yeah i like this trade but feel it may pull back a bit even in an AI collapse as risk changes.
I am in on a pullback..... I still also love beef prices going higher over next few years.
I can grow 10 grand worth of hamburgers for about $300 worth of materials and nominal work. If that stayed consistent, it'd have me re-thinking some of what I'm doing.
If your land was yours .... not mortgaged, you could make serious money growing to US ground beef market.
not sure you can maintain fencing at 3% of revenue long term but adjust your model and sure
labour materials etc is still probably cheap in EFT regions
your link is trailing other funds that have already reclaimed peak. Not sure if its lagging due to underperformance or is undervalued.
The beef is mostly about quality and something to do with surplus headlands and paddocks, it's only 8 beasts. Most of the usable land is taken up with crops, but the inputs are fairly high (over 10 grand a hectare) relative to what I can currently get out of beef at the pricing.
We should expect to see some regions' fortunes improve from the bed shit going on in the US economy.
INVESTMENT of the Week 5/11/25: Black Caps win (1.40) multi with All Blacks win by 7.5 points against Scotland (1.77)
paying ($2.47)
I like it. Our bowlers will be too good. Especially in game 1 as the tourists get used to NZ wickets
Just be aware that the recommendation is general financial advice not personal financial advice (which includes same game multis)
I’ve put 100k on and I might see you in court.
I bet you won't see him in court if you win, lol.
its looking good please send me you brokerage fee in BTC
Looking good for who?
NZ teams always find a way to lose games they shouldn’t. Although the All Blacks are an exception, and the Black Caps are becoming one too.
US Federal Reserve pumps cash into Wall Street as banking system shows signs of stress.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/577888/us-federal-reserve-pumps-cash-i…
Stunned that RNZ published that Dr Y. They're stepping way out of their lane.
Rat poison has now performed worse than US Treasuries in 2025. YTD, ratty has delivered returns between 8% and 13%, depending on the data source and precise measurement date. In comparison, US10Y have provided a higher total return, with yields fluctuating between 4.1% and 5% throughout the year, and the recent rally in bond prices has resulted in gains that, with reinvested interest, have outpaced Bitcoin's price appreciation in the same period.
I do wonder if that’s what will be the end of Bitcoin. Once it becomes a fairly average investment, what’s the point? A year or two of average gains, a few big sell offs, maybe it goes bang.
Between now and when stealth QE begins, one has to preserve capital. The treasury via its debt auctions is borrowing money (dollar liquidity negative) but not spending it (dollar liquidity positive). The Treasury General Account is above the $850 billion target by ~$150bn, and this extra liquidity won’t get released into the markets until the government reopens. This liquidity drain is one reason for the current softness in the crypto markets.
Given that the four-year cycle anniversary of the 2021 BTC all-time-high is nigh, many will mistake this period of market weakness and ennui as the top and dump their stack.
That’s assuming they weren’t annihilated in the altcoin collapse a few weeks back. That is a mistake, the dollar money market plumbing doesn’t lie. This corner of the market is shrouded in obtuse jargon, but once you translate the lingo into print money or destroy money, it becomes quite easy to know how to dance.
Do you then dance with golden shoes wearing silver clothes to techno beats ?
Great question Yvil , one for the ages.
I would have some money on that bet.
https://youtu.be/JKOhlMF84o4 Earl - All That Glitters (Official Video)
One time, for the money
Two times, for the love
Three times, for the beauty
These are the things that dreams are made of
One timе, for my body
Two times, for my soul
Three times, for my honey
All that glittеrs isn't gold
Phoenix - Whatever you own that's priced in USD will be cheaper next year, unless a financial crisis is underway, I guess this is where BTC would get interesting having being born from the GFC...
Between now and when stealth QE begins, one has to preserve capital
If one has capital to begin with. For most people, it's more about being aspirationally wealthy.
Given that the four-year cycle anniversary of the 2021 BTC all-time-high is nigh
That high was off the pandemic. And the one 4 years before that was an intentional manipulation. So there's no impetus for a cycle over and above some form of news related rally.
Which there could be, but Bitcoin is sharing an ever increasing audience for whatever today's latest meme attempt captures the public wallet.
Last year, November 4th was a low point for dogsh*t coins.
In the next 30 days,
$ALGO pumped 489%
$VET pumped 309%
$HBAR pumped 818%
$ADA pumped 315%
$ONDO pumped 264%
$XRP pumped 472%
yeah yeah a 1 year seasonality trend...
there must be a few whale private chat groups out there.
Take me back
You've just proven my point. All the obsessing and tracking you have over outsized returns, you aren't preserving capital, you're trying to generate it.
yes with the right risk management system and enough liquidity even max max world would have been tradeable.
If the music is playing we have to dance.
No one knows what happens once the music stops...
And the one 4 years before that was an intentional manipulation. So there's no impetus for a cycle over and above some form of news related rally
Liquidity is the driver. Eventually the exponential expansion of treasury debt issuance will force the repeated use of Standing Repo Facility. Remember that not only does Bessent need to issue $2 trillion annually to fund the government, he also must issue trillions more to roll over maturing debt.
That is "Stealth QE". Nobody knows when it will begin. But if the current money market conditions persist, the treasury debt pile grows exponentially, the SRF balance must grow as the lender of last resort.
As SRF balances grow, the amount of fiat dollars in the world expands as well. This phenomenon will reignite the BTC bull market and likely set off the sh*tcoins.
If proper investments that have something behind them (shares, property, etc) yield a similar amount to an investment in nothing (Bitcoin), why invest in nothing? It’s like lending; if there’s no collateral you want a really good return.
Big players can now own BTC due to ability to hedge or swap into yield bearing assets...
https://www.xe.com/en-nz/currencycharts/?from=BTC&to=XAU&view=10Y
one could argue that gold is overvalued here or BTC under.
its a very very big world out there.
U.S. M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22.212 Trillion. 4.5% yoy. Factor that in to the bogus inflation story.
https://www.voronoiapp.com/money/-US-M2-Money-Supply-2124-Trillion-in-O…
Starting to think that not all M2 interest due may be paid next big crisis.
And that could end up in newspeak as a dynamically developing situation
Roy Morgan poll update
"Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for October 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 49.5%, up 1% point from a month earlier, marginally in front of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 45%, down 2.5% points,"
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10054-nz-national-voting-intention-o…
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/ntk-australian-news-live-november-…
‘I know you’re watching’: Mamdani taunts Trump
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