Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The only changes today are cuts by the Heretaunga Building Society. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
WAITING FOR THE UPTURN TO KICK IN
October electronic cards data for retail sales shows that apart from rises in fuel and consumables spending, seasonally adjusted retail spending was on a downward path again. 'This will be a disappointing result for the RBNZ' said a Westpac analyst. And the retail industry is nervous that the end of year sales peak, one they have been hanging in there for.
TWELVE YEAR LOW
New Zealanders continue to leave the country in droves pushing net migration gain down to just over 1000 a month with the September year its lowest since 2013.
MORE TOURISTS ARRIVING
Infometrics is noting that tourism arrivals grew for the third consecutive month, rising +2.9% in September, following growth of at least +2.4% in each of the previous two months (all figures seasonally adjusted). Monthly arrivals in September were 95% of September 2019 levels, the highest monthly share of pre-pandemic levels since COVID-19.
WE ARE HIRING
We have an opening in Wellington for a full-time Press Gallery journalist who can help us explain the New Zealand economy to New Zealanders. 2026 is Election Year, so there will be a lot to cover. See this.
NZX50 TURNS LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is now down -0.3% so far on Thursday. That puts it up +0.4% over the past five working days. And it is up +4.3% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +7.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has dropped another -0.6% so far today. Mainfreight is surging with gains also by SkyCity casino, Skellerup and EBOS. The decliners are led by Infratil, NZME, Chorus and Meridian.
ANOTHER STRONG NZGB BOND TENDER, BUT YIELDS FIRM
Today's NZGB bond tender was well supported with 116 bids for the $450 mln on offer in three maturities. $1.675 bln was bid and 48 of the bides were successful. But yields were slightly higher that the equivalent tenders two weeks ago.
HEARTLAND HOLDS PROFIT FORECAST STEADY
Heartland Group Holdings reiterated a forecast for $85 million June 2026 year net profit after tax at its annual meeting on Thursday. That's up from $38.8 million in the June year this year, and in-line with the bank's previous forecast made in August. CEO Andrew Dixson says Heartland's also aiming to improve process automation and boost its return on equity.
POWERING AHEAD
Australia delivered another very strong set of employment data with jobs expanding by +42,200 and full time jobs expanding by +55,300. Their jobless rate fell more than expected to 4.2% (NZ is 5.3%.) This, along with inflation above target, will have the RBA thinking hard about their December 9 cash rate target which is currently 3.6%. Aussie bond yields spiked higher on the news, taking the NZGB yields up with them. (see below)
HIGH BUT EASING
Australian consumer inflation expectations slipped slightly to 4.5% in November from 4.8% in October, the lowest reading since August. Actual CPI inflation in September came in at 3.5%.
CRACKING DOWN
Like everywhere, Australia has its share of cowboy real estate agents. Now the NSW state government is moving to toughen the penalties for misleading buyers. The proposed changes aim to crack down on misleading price estimates in property listings, a practice known as underquoting, which leads to buyers wasting time and money pursuing homes that are well out of reach. Penalties are to rise from A$22,000 to A$110,000 for breaches. Underquoting aims to build an apparent crowd of keen potential buyers for appearances sake. It takes advantage of people who have no idea they are being used.
ABBOTT'S HARD RIGHT KILLS THE AU LIBERALS
Also in Australia, the opposition Liberal Party has dumped its commitment to net zero policies, a move that will likely isolate it further from the electorate (but not Sky News After dark commentators). It will now really struggle to hold its big city electorates from spirited challenges from teals. In an odd 'compromise' they committed to staying in the Paris Agreement, but without Net Zero that is just greenwashing which will fool no-one. We are probably witnessing the demise of a political party that once was their 'natural' governing political force. Australia will now need a proper liberal opposition to Labor, maybe born out of the teals.
THE LEAST COST ALTERNATIVE
Just as the Aussie Liberals were making that Trumpish decision, the IEA released its 2025 World Energy Outlook. It concluded that technology has moved so far so fast that "options to reduce emissions substantially are well understood and, in many cases, cost effective." From here, staying with fossil fuels will come with cost penalties.
TRACKING FOR A NEW RECORD HIGH
The 2025 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.1 bln tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year. That is a record high and up +1.1% in a year. China's emissions will rise +0.4%, India by +1.4%, the US by +1.9%, and Japan will decrease by -2.2%. The rest of the world will rise +1.1%. New Zealand will release 0.08 bln tonnes this year, down -2.9% from 2024. (Russia's war on Ukraine cases more than 0.1 bln tonnes of emissions per year.)
SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are probably up today pushed by the Aussie jobs data. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.48% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 4.45%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.81%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.19%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Wednesday's rate is down -1 bp at 4.10%. The UST 10yr yield is also down -1 bp at 4.07%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now down -0.3% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has risen +0.4% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.3%. Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore is down -0.1% at its open. Wall Street rose +0.1% on the S&P500 in mixed trade, lucky to end positive.
OIL DROPS
The oil price in the US is down -US$2.50/bbl at just on US$58.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$62.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE DOWN AGAIN
There have been a few more trades today but the price has fallen hard to $43/NZU, down -$3.50. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISING
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$56/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4186/oz.
NZD STABLE
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at just on 56.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 48.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 61.1.
BITCOIN EASES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$102,030 and down -1.2% from yesterday. Volatility has been moderate again at just on +/- 2%.
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13 Comments
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$56/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4186/oz.
- You now have to hand over a hefty 7,421 kiwi pesos for an ounce of gold. Charging in AUD as well.
- Silver smashed through USD53 and nearing its all-time high. Up 5% last night. Yet at the water cooler all they talk about is the latest TD rates and hopium for more cheap debt. Exposure to a silver ETF (ETPMAG - Global X silver) would have returned 75% YTD - 10 ppt lower than spot. The 'financial advisors' and Granny Herald completely silent on the fact.
- Gold miners still charging and GDX now up 130% YTD. Still a secret to many, but GDX has appreciated more in 2025 than it has in its entire history going back to 2006. Your investment advisor will unlikely have recommended GDX. Commissions are not fat enough.
I'm all in JC, $5k or bust...
Mary Holm should be put out to pasture Dr Y. Her position on and understand of gold have been atrocious. She has some of the worst boomer groupthink on many assets.
Mary Holms advice is only useful if you're swimming in swathes of discretionary income probably like she is. She's another one of those grossly out of touch "investment advisors" who thinks everyone earns six figure incomes.
In her defense, Mary has long recommended ETFs as a cost effective investment over actively managed funds. She's well read and informative. Just on gold and PMs, her biases shine through.
"The 'financial advisors' and Granny Herald completely silent on the fact." - too many overinflated asset classes to report on them all...
Well the gold, silver, miner asset classes are not key advertising sources for them. And public interest is probably low.
New all-time high for silver hit today on Shanghai Gold Exchange. The most popular silver futures contract hit 12,366 Yuan per kilogram. The spot silver market up 4.14% on the day.
Silver to breach US$70.00 in 2026....on middling interest. Gold/Silver Miners to make killing in 2026.
Still today, no one at the water cooler at work, knows a thing about it.
When they do know and nibble at the metal dealers........5.5k plus on gold and $100well+ for silver.
Time for water coolers to be made illegal in Aotearoa. Too much of a source of disinformation.
Gold sale money flows offshore, it would not be helpful for NZ Banks to have gold buying deflation inflicted on their balance sheets.
Even one once per over 60 would be interesting shift of funds.
About that aussie net zero. Talking abput net zero and doing net zero are two quite different things. Buying fancy batteries and few headlines is the easy part - integrating it in to you grid notsomuch.
"The renewable transition has been thrown into “disarray” after the nation’s most powerful $1 billion battery was hit by a “catastrophic” failure, experts have warned.
It comes after the AFR revealed the super battery, owned by BlackRock through its subsidiary Akaysha Energy, suffered a “catastrophic failure” in one of three giant transformers.
A second transformer has been taken offline for testing and may also need to be replaced.
The battery is a key component of New South Wales' renewable transition, and was expected to be fully operational by the end of the year.
...Tony Wood, senior fellow and director of energy and climate change at the Grattan Institute, said the energy transition has turned out to be increasingly difficult.
“When we began this transition, I think there was some optimism that almost it was going to be easy and pretty cheap, and it's turning out not to be easy or cheap,” he said.
“I think our governments didn't realise how challenging getting it all lined up was going to be.”
Mr Wood said the government could not afford to close down coal or gas before the storage batteries and pumped hydro to support renewables was online.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/waratahs-1-billion-s…
www.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fcompanies%2Fnsws-1bn-waratah-supe…
Yes, it's extroadinarily difficult.
Actually impossible
To wean THIS societal format off fossil energy.
What a shame it's finite. What a shame we're half-way through it. What a shame we; burned the best, first. What a shame the never-bigger collection of infrastructure is demanding ever-more of the remaining resource.
And what a shame some folk stoop to touting.
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