Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Again, no changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ have trimmed a very small number of term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BEST IN THREE YEARS
Job ads have now risen by +1% in each of the past four months and are up +7% year-on-year, according to SEEK. And that is their fastest growth rate since 2022.
BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE?
House prices have now been 'broadly flat' for three years in a row, BNZ's chief economist says. The end of the RBNZ's rate cutting cycle is in sight he says and longer term fixed mortgage rates may already be bottoming out.
AND NOW FONTERRA CUTS BACK PAYOUT FORECAST
Fonterra's farmgate milk price forecast has been reduced to $9.50 per kilogram of milk solids from $10 on the back of weaker global prices.
TRACTOR SALES VOLATILE
After rising to a four year high in a September month, these was a sharpish retreat in tractor sales in October, down to a three year low (for an October) of just 234 units.
SWITCHING TREND RISES
In October, 2831 home loan borrowers changed their bank, almost identical to the 2821 who changed in October 2024. The average loan size being switch was $692,000 (not quite a record), and well above the average loan size for a property purchase of $608,000, which was (just) a record high. Although October switching as littl;e-changed on a year-on-year basis, it has been rising, so that for the whole year to October a record 34,230 loans were switched between banks, and a third more than in the year to October 2024. There were a total of 1.4 million home loans across 1.2 million customers at the end of June, according to the NZBA. So about one in 40 mortgages change banks each year.
BANKING INDUSTRY RESULTS
The RBNZ will release its September 2025 dashboard tomorrow which allows us to see individual bank results and positions. Today it released some industry data, which showed the overall net interest margin at 2.30%, down from 2.34% both one and two years ago. From the same quarter a year ago, bank net interest income was down -16%, and bank net interest expense was down -26.7%. The amount of net interest rose in the quarter to almost $4.1 bln and a new record high. Total industry assets (basically loans) rose +6.2% from a year ago to $759 bln. There are 27 registered banks.
NZX50 CAN'T HOLD EARLIER GAINS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.4% so far on Monday. That puts it also down -0.2% over the past five working days. But it is up +3.1% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +2.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.3% so far today. Gentrack extends its rally, Kathmandu, Investore Property, and Heartland rise while Briscoes, EBOS, Chorus, and Fletcher Building turn lower.
PROFITABILITY RECOVERS
Equipment lender MTF has announced a $10.2 mln tax paid profit for its year to September, 2025, about double last year poor result.
FEELING CHIPPER
In South Korea, consumer sentiment is rising. Their central bank's survey revealed a Composite Consumer Sentiment Index at the highest reading since November 2017. Their renewed confidence follows a major trade agreement with the US and stronger-than-expected economic growth.
TAKE OUR NEW QUIZ
Our new quiz is open with an updated challenge, and you can play until 4pm on Sunday. For a second consecutive week more than 600 people played. It is open for all, Supporters and those yet to sign up. Anyone can play.
SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -3 bps at 2.41% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.44%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.81%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps from this time yesterday at 4.29%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday's rate unchanged at 4.28%. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 4.04%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is down -0.2% in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is also down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is back after its long weekend, up +0.7% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.9% and Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore is -0.1% softer at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +1.5% on tech-trade gains.
OIL SLIGHTLY FIRMER
The oil price in the US up +50USc just over US$58.50/bbl and the international Brent price is still just over US$63/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STALLS
We can't find any trades today so things are unchanged at $44/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD GAINS ON RISK AVERSION
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$88/oz from yesterday at this time, now at US$4133/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little changed from this time yesterday at just under 56.1 USc. Against the Aussie we also little-changed at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 48.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +10 bps from yesterday at just under 60.9.
BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price is now at US$87,837 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.2%.
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12 Comments
I'm waiting for someone in the MSM, to equate entropy with the need to ditch rules, restrictions, governance.
Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies absolutely nails this process.
But no, we'll fixate on GROWTH, and '; the market'.
Which studiously value sod-all.
Even is we scrapped all governance and all rules - continuing a process that has been succumbing to pressure since the 70s - we wouldn't solve the problem now. Time we looked at a new societal format.
Well that theme is somewhat complementary to the quote of the day hereunder courtesy one Johnny Carson.
ps : typed that attempted cleverness and then just like that it had vanished - never mind from memory then “people will pay more to be entertained than they will to be educated.
I'm waiting for someone in the MSM, to equate entropy with the need to ditch rules, restrictions, governance.
Granny is not your friend Power. And even Nandor Tanczos wants subsidized flights to Whakatane. Chloe's swans around in business class for junkets.
It's futile fighting it.
Time we looked at a new societal format
I think it's working itself out on its own, we're just watching.
I suspect it is the idea of "a new societal format" that drives PDK.
No, you put the messenger down to avoid addressing the message.
We will, by century's end, be down between 3 and 0 billion, globally. We will be past fossil energy input. And that means all the things we did in the years of surplus, we won't. We'll be doing food-production, community, and residual triage, is my guess.
Don't confuse want with predict, thankee kindly.
Disclosures released in mid‑Nov 2025 show Trump bought at least USD82 million in corporate and municipal bonds between Aug 28 and Oct 2, spread across more than 175 separate transactions. Because the forms report only value ranges, the true total for this recent batch could be as high as about USD337 million.
You see what's going on here or do you want me to spell it out for you?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-has-bought-at-least-82-million-…
Spell it out
Mkts don't have liquidity Dr Y. So what they have to do? Print money. So Trump is buying corporate and municipal bonds when yields are at their highest. So why would Trump do this? When Trump dumps Jerome Powel in 2026, he will install a loyalist who will do what Trump wants - lower rates to zero (and call it whatever they want to) triggering and one of the more insane goldrush events of all time.
Big plans.
An internal OpenAI memo outlining plans to deploy 250 gigawatts of computing power by 2033 has sparked concerns about the scale of the company's ambitions. Truthdig did the math on how much power such a goal would require, equating it to more electricity than the entire nation of India and more carbon dioxide emissions than ExxonMobil.
https://uk.pcmag.com/ai/161245/openais-data-center-ambitions-could-requ…
One of the most extreme predictions made about Bitcoin power consumption was the claim that it could end up using all of the world’s electricity by as soon as 2020. This widely publicized prediction, made in late 2017, generated major headlines and criticism about the scalability and environmental impact of Bitcoin mining, but was quickly debunked by more rigorous energy studies and mainstream energy experts.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/no-bitcoin-is-likely-not-going-to-consu…
Bitcoin is the great leveler - if your energy isn't cheap, and reliable, it won't make Bitcoin. Hence we aren't sitting at home making Bitcoin from our solar panels and wind mills.
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