Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Few floating mortgage rate changes to report today. The Cooperative Bank was the first. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Co-operative Bank trimmed its savings account rates. So di GoLend. ICBC have trimmed a number of term deposit rates, but to be fair they did that about two weeks ago and we have just updated our tables. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
CHRISTMAS RATE CUT DELIVERED
As expected, the RBNZ delivered a -25 bps rate cut today, taking the OCR to 2.25%. That is half the level it was when it peaked recently in May 2023. To be fair, this is a cut needed because the economy is weak, not because inflation is beaten. Inflation is low only because the economy is weak. A stronger economy would probably have allowed inflation to find some grip. On that basis, the cut is a sign of pervasive weakness.
COLLISION ANALYSIS
Dominant general insurer, IAG, has one brand that dominates car insurance, AMI. AMI handled more than 235,000 vehicle claims, and they say more than 56% of those were for collision damage. They also say the incidence of collision damage is falling, down -7% per year since 2023. And that correlates with the growing adoption of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in modern cars. It's a preference their surveys of drivers note and goes some way to explaining why new cars (with ADAS) are outselling used imports. AMI's analysis is here. Most collisions happened in Auckland (43,292) but with a population of 1.816 mln, that is a far lower incidence that the 18,967 they had in Canterbury (population 698,000). So AMI had a per capita collision of one in 42, whereas in Canterbury it was on in 36.
ANOTHER ANALYST CUTS
Westpac has become the latest analyst to cut its Fonterra dairy payout forecast for the current 2025/26 milk season. And they have cut more than the others (so far) to $9.30/kgMS. You can see and compare all analyst forecasts in the table at the foot of this page.
SEPTEMBER UPDATE
The RBNZ released its Dashboard data today. This data set allows bank-by-bank comparison and benchmarking, and it is now up to September 2025. We have ingested this data into our Bank Key Metrics tool. We will report separately on market share shifts below and later in the week, based on this data.
BIG QUARTER FOR ANZ NZ
September quarter data published in the Reserve Bank's Bank Financial Strength Dashboard shows ANZ NZ's quarterly profit topping $700 million for the first time. It weighed in at $700.5 million. This was the final quarter of ANZ NZ's financial year, for which it recently posted record annual profit of $2.532 billion. The other three big banks posted combined September quarter profit of $974.4 million. Kiwibank made $43.2 million.
NZX50 RISES STRONGLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.9% so far on Wednesday. That puts it up +2.0% over the past five working days. It is up +4.1% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +3.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +4.8% so far today. Channel Infrastructure and Gentrack surge; F&P Healthcare and Vista Group also rise but Kathmandu, Briscoes, Summerset and Tourism Holdings ease.
STRONG PROFIT GROWTH
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH has announced its results for the first half of the 2026 financial year, which ended 30 September 2025. Total operating revenue was $1.09 billion, an increase of +14% over the first half of the prior financial year, or 12% in constant currency. Net profit after tax was $213.0 million, an increase of +39% over the first half of the prior financial year, or 28% in constant currency. ("Constant currency" is a way to measure the company's financial performance as if exchange rates had not changed between periods.)
FUNDING ROUND SUCCESS
Ruminant Biotech, a New Zealand-founded agritech company developing the world’s leading methane mitigation solution for pasture-based cattle, today announced the close of its $17 mln Series A investment round. By 2035, Ruminant Biotech aims to have 100 million cows treated with its solution globally.
RISING INFLATION
In Australia, CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% in October, up from 3.6% in September and above expectations of a 3.6% increase. It is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target range. This is the highest inflation reading since the monthly data series began in April 2025.
SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are probably sharply higher today. This was because the RBNZ lowered its forecast terminal rate from 2.55% to 2.20%, above the market-priced terminal of 2.10%. Accordingly, swap rates and the NZD rose in response. (H/T IS) Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.41% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.47%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.82%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps from this time yesterday at 4.34%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate down -1 bp at 4.27%. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.00%.
EQUITIES RISE
The local equity market is up +0.9% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.9% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.7% and Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore is +0.5% firmer at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.9%.
OIL DIPS
The oil price in the US down -50 USc just over US$58/bbl and the international Brent price is down to US$62.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STALLS
We can't find any trades today so things are unchanged at $44/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$15/oz from yesterday at this time, now at US$4148/oz.
NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up a sharp +60 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49+ euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +50 bps from yesterday at just under 61.4.
BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price is now at US$87,837 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.2%.
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1 Comments
The continuous drop in interest rate is really terrible for savers. Inflation is eating away at their savings at a higher rate then interest is earned. A sure way to go backwards. Some will still keep their money in Term Deposits, but others will move the money in search of a better, or rather less bad return.
Where will this money flow into is THE question ?
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