Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Few floating mortgage rate changes to report today. The Cooperative Bank was the first. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Co-operative Bank trimmed its savings account rates. So di GoLend. ICBC have trimmed a number of term deposit rates, but to be fair they did that about two weeks ago and we have just updated our tables. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
CHRISTMAS RATE CUT DELIVERED
As expected, the RBNZ delivered a -25 bps rate cut today, taking the OCR to 2.25%. That is half the level it was when it peaked recently in May 2023. To be fair, this is a cut needed because the economy is weak, not because inflation is beaten. Inflation is low only because the economy is weak. A stronger economy would probably have allowed inflation to find some grip. On that basis, the cut is a sign of pervasive weakness.
COLLISION ANALYSIS
Dominant general insurer, IAG, has one brand that dominates car insurance, AMI. AMI handled more than 235,000 vehicle claims, and they say more than 56% of those were for collision damage. They also say the incidence of collision damage is falling, down -7% per year since 2023. And that correlates with the growing adoption of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in modern cars. It's a preference their surveys of drivers note and goes some way to explaining why new cars (with ADAS) are outselling used imports. AMI's analysis is here. Most collisions happened in Auckland (43,292) but with a population of 1.816 mln, that is a far lower incidence that the 18,967 they had in Canterbury (population 698,000). So AMI had a per capita collision of one in 42, whereas in Canterbury it was on in 36.
ANOTHER ANALYST CUTS
Westpac has become the latest analyst to cut its Fonterra dairy payout forecast for the current 2025/26 milk season. And they have cut more than the others (so far) to $9.30/kgMS. You can see and compare all analyst forecasts in the table at the foot of this page.
SEPTEMBER UPDATE
The RBNZ released its Dashboard data today. This data set allows bank-by-bank comparison and benchmarking, and it is now up to September 2025. We have ingested this data into our Bank Key Metrics tool. We will report separately on market share shifts below and later in the week, based on this data.
BIG QUARTER FOR ANZ NZ
September quarter data published in the Reserve Bank's Bank Financial Strength Dashboard shows ANZ NZ's quarterly profit topping $700 million for the first time. It weighed in at $700.5 million. This was the final quarter of ANZ NZ's financial year, for which it recently posted record annual profit of $2.532 billion. The other three big banks posted combined September quarter profit of $974.4 million. Kiwibank made $43.2 million.
NZX50 RISES STRONGLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.9% so far on Wednesday. That puts it up +2.0% over the past five working days. It is up +4.1% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +3.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +4.8% so far today. Channel Infrastructure and Gentrack surge; F&P Healthcare and Vista Group also rise but Kathmandu, Briscoes, Summerset and Tourism Holdings ease.
STRONG PROFIT GROWTH
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH has announced its results for the first half of the 2026 financial year, which ended 30 September 2025. Total operating revenue was $1.09 billion, an increase of +14% over the first half of the prior financial year, or 12% in constant currency. Net profit after tax was $213.0 million, an increase of +39% over the first half of the prior financial year, or 28% in constant currency. ("Constant currency" is a way to measure the company's financial performance as if exchange rates had not changed between periods.)
FUNDING ROUND SUCCESS
Ruminant Biotech, a New Zealand-founded agritech company developing the world’s leading methane mitigation solution for pasture-based cattle, today announced the close of its $17 mln Series A investment round. By 2035, Ruminant Biotech aims to have 100 million cows treated with its solution globally.
RISING INFLATION
In Australia, CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% in October, up from 3.6% in September and above expectations of a 3.6% increase. It is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target range. This is the highest inflation reading since the monthly data series began in April 2025.
SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are probably sharply higher today. This was because the RBNZ lowered its forecast terminal rate from 2.55% to 2.20%, above the market-priced terminal of 2.10%. Accordingly, swap rates and the NZD rose in response. (H/T IS) Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.41% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.47%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.82%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps from this time yesterday at 4.34%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate down -1 bp at 4.27%. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.00%.
EQUITIES RISE
The local equity market is up +0.9% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.9% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.7% and Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore is +0.5% firmer at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.9%.
OIL DIPS
The oil price in the US down -50 USc just over US$58/bbl and the international Brent price is down to US$62.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STALLS
We can't find any trades today so things are unchanged at $44/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$15/oz from yesterday at this time, now at US$4148/oz.
NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up a sharp +60 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49+ euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +50 bps from yesterday at just under 61.4.
BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price is now at US$87,837 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.2%.
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20 Comments
The continuous drop in interest rate is really terrible for savers. Inflation is eating away at their savings at a higher rate then interest is earned. A sure way to go backwards. Some will still keep their money in Term Deposits, but others will move the money in search of a better, or rather less bad return.
Where will this money flow into is THE question ?
Good question Dr Y. The Smart NZ Dividend ETF is now up approx 28% since April. In fact its appreciation has been quite dramatic, equaling that of the post Covid crash. So who's buying? 1. Local retail via NZX brokers and platforms (Sharesies, InvestNow, ASB Securities, etc.), given Smartshares’ distribution model. 2.NZ-based wholesale and advisory platforms using Smartshares ETFs as building blocks in model portfolios (sometimes via wrap accounts that will not show up individually on public registers).
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NZX-DIV/?timeframe=ALL
Gold priced in Aotearoa pesos has risen roughly about 60–65% over the past 12 months, about 185–190% over the past 5 years, and about 350% over the past 10 years, depending on the exact day you measure from.
Corporate bonds even trump is buying them
The are obviously not touching the crashing NZ Housing Ponzi, with a bargepole!!!
Some may have had handy timing with thei TD maturities and reinvested long term. That would see them through to 2028 but very likely they then will encounter that very same problem.
Some may have had handy timing with thei TD maturities and reinvested long term. That would see them through to 2028 but very likely they then will encounter that very same problem.
Comparatively they're getting crushed.
point taken but in the more senior ranks, as relative to the issue of risk capacity , the best return is still the return of capital.
So Aussie inflation increases to 3.8% over year to October, but the RBA boffins didn't see it coming. This effectively kills hopes of future rate cuts and places mounting pressure on the govt's spending spree. Some of the largesse is off the charts. Reminds me of Japan and Greece during their golden periods.
Great to know Net Permanent and Long Term arrivals (primarily from developing countries) were over 415,000 over the same period - the highest ever.
Team Albo inherited a 6.1% inflation rate when it was over 9% in many developed countries. However, most advanced economies have since managed to reduce their inflation rates to below Australia’s while growing real GDP per capita. Aussie's real GDP per capita is about 3% lower today than in May 2022 despite the Govt spending like a drunken sailor.
Matt Barrie points out on Aussie CPI read:
Housing up 5.9%,
new mortgages 45% of pre-tax h'hold budget
Electricity up 37%
Clothing 5.4%
Education 5.4%
Health 4%
Gold (true inflation) 12% per annum last 15 years
Yet somehow inflation is only 3.8%
Couldn't believe that electricity number so I had a look at the ABS release. Man, that's noisy data and they seem to have a whole mess of state electricity subsidies coming and going knocking the numbers around. Month-on-month is -10.2%, July was +13.5%, last November 22.2%...
I was getting ready to add to my priors of data centre demand starting to affect residential prices as seems to be happening in the US, but really I have no idea what's going on with that data set.
Pick out the ones you feel like and you can prove a point. Bitcoin is down for example, yet not included.
"Electricity up 37%" Green energy, unreliables premium. On the other hand isn't there a huge penetration of home solar, in the MWs? Perhaps it's all those coal fired power stations that have been forced to close.
If you thought Team Ardern was bad, since Team Albo was elected, the number of public servants has grown by 38,200, reaching 193,500 in late 2024.
All the well-paid job growth in Aussie is seated in bureaucracy.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/labor-to-slash-5-6-billion-from-publ…
Albo and his jug-eared Treasurer have fiscal and immigration taps at max, and that's before you factor in the States running hugely expansionary fiscal settings as well.
I think Australia capital city property prices are up 11% in the 10 months to 31 Oct, inflation is red-lining.
Contrast that to here where we are at max austerity and cutting sharply, we are rarely so out of step with Australia.
Catering suppliers to govt in Canberra will be making out like bandits. Talked to a guy who previously ran an Aussie Chamber of Commerce in an ASEAN nation. He told me that his day was spent dealing with inane requests from not just the federal govt, but also all the state govts. Very few of the requests had any proper commercial focus that could be handled (and largely about issues that should sit under the responsibility of the respective email senders).
They are such an incredibly wealthy country but that does create a culture of waste. Look at that BoM website, $100m spent & the public are begging to go back to the old version.
Contrast that to here where we are at max austerity and cutting sharply, we are rarely so out of step with Australia.
AUDNZD 1.14 somewhere around here to 1.13 its prob a buy
Yeah, the austerity model is so much better. Why so many NZers are moving to Aus is a mystery.
Pray tell, what austerity model?! The bureaucrats have made damn sure their nests remain feathered.
"The Government's total failure to follow through on its promise to reduce the size of government has seen per-person GDP lower now than when it was elected into office, with Government spending even higher as a proportion of the economy and continuing to fuel the cost of living crisis."
"Who is actually controlling public finances in New Zealand – the elected Ministers or the unelected bureaucrats? Willis makes it hard to tell, and the electorate is sensing that."
San Francisco just logged one of the wildest, most cinematic crypto robberies to date:
An armed thief posing as a delivery guy finessed his way into the $4.4M Mission District home shared by investor Lachy Groom - yes, Sam Altman’s ex-boyfriend - and another tech investor named Joshua.
Once inside the intruder pulled a gun, tied Joshua up with duct tape, beat him, tortured him with personal info read aloud over speakerphone, and drained $11 million in Ethereum and Bitcoin.
90 minutes. Gone.
https://nypost.com/2025/11/25/us-news/sam-altmans-ex-boyfriends-san-fra…
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