Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has reduced its rate card for 1-5 year term deposits. Liberty Financial trimmed all it's rates 6 months to 3 years and raised longer term rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HIGHER CONSTRUCTION COSTS
Higher timber prices are starting to push up residential construction costs. This comes after a period of low to falling prices, QV CostBuilder data shows.
NEARLY A BEAR MARKET
The overnight dairy auction saw prices fall to a two year low, the eight consecutive drop in these auctions. Apart from cheddar cheese which made an unexpected large recovery, everything else fell, especially butter which fell to a two year low in NZD and a three year low in USD. Overall, prices retreated +4.3% in USD and -5.4% in NZD. Falls this large haven't happened since mid-July 2024. Analysts had already trimmed their current season payout forecasts, and today's event may have them thinking about revisiting them again. Certainly, the trend isn't positive. Since its May 20 peak, the GDT index has fallen -18.2%.
AS DAIRY WEAKENS, MEAT PROVIDES SOME BALACE
The ANZ commodity price index for November is now back to exactly where it was as year ago, although in NZD iit is +6.3% ahead due to the devaluation of the currency. Their index fell -1.6% in November from October with dairy prices down -5.4% on that basis, offset by a +3.5% rise in meat prices. But this is the first annual fall since December 2023.
MORE NEW CARS, FEWER USED IMPORTS
New passenger vehicles again led the car market with 10,247 registrations in November, up +14.5% on the year-ago period. Hybrid models remained dominant as buyers focus on fuel efficiency and running costs in a cautious spending environment. The Toyota RAV4 was once again the top-selling model with 1,257 registrations, followed by the Mitsubishi ASX (558) and the Ford Everest (527). Used imports fell again, down -5.2% from the year-ago month. They are now down -24.7% from a year ago. No wonder the IMVIA was begging for emissions-standards relief (which they won).
NZX50 FLAT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was unchanged so far on Wednesday. That puts it down -0.4% over the past five working days. It is up +3.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +3.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.4% today. Skellerup, SkyCity casino, Gentrack, and Hallensteins gain but Kathmandu, Vista Group, Auckland Airport, and Mainfreight decline
'IMPROVING OUTLOOK'
After a prolonged period of economic stagnation, BusinessNZ forecasts indicate that the economy is likely to grow at just under 3% per annum out to 2027. Their Economic Conditions Index (ECI), which tracks major economic indicators, stands at +13 for the December 2025 quarter – up nine points from the previous quarter and two points higher than a year ago. An ECI reading above zero indicates improving economic conditions, while a reading below zero signals a general decline.
REPRIEVE
The FMA is reporting that the European Commission has recognised the NZ Bank Bill Rate benchmark (BKBM), a 'significant outcome' because more than €50 bln of financial instruments currently in use in the EU reference the NZ BKBM as a base for them, particularly holders of interest rate swaps. Without that approval, fundraising in the EU would have had to cease because there are no feasible alternatives.
UNEXPECTED SLOWING OF GROWTH
The Australian economy grew less than expected in Q3-2025. Economic activity expanded +0.4% from the June quarter. Markets had expected a +0.7% expansion as it had in Q2-2025. Still, it was the 16th straight quarter of expansion. On a yearly basis, their GDP rose +2.1%, less than forecasts of +2.2% and after a +2.0% growth in Q2.
SWAP RATES - RECENT RISES REVERSE
Wholesale swap rates are have probably retreated a bit today, especially at the longer end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.47% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.61%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.83%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -8 bps at 4.42%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate up +6 bps at 4.47%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 4.08%.
EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The local equity market is up +0.1% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is also up +0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.8% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.8% and Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is +0.3% firmer at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with a lackluster +0.2% firming..
OIL RETREATS
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 at just under US$58.50/bbl and the international Brent price is down -50 USc, now at just under US$62.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STILL STALLED
We can't find any trades again today so the price holds at the low $40/NZU, the lowest since July 2023. (It peaked at $90.5/NZU in September 2022.) The final New Zealand carbon unit (NZU) auction for 2025 failed completely, with no bids received. This means that all 6 million NZUs offered at the auction, with a minimum price of $68, were not sold and will be wiped from the system. It was the second consecutive year that all four quarterly auctions have failed to attract any bidders, likely due to recent climate policy announcements signaling a potential rollback of climate change commitments, making it cheaper for emitters to buy units on the secondary market. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD UNCHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$1/oz from yesterday, now at US$4215/oz.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday, now just under 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we are +10 bps firmer at 49.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is at just on 62 and up +10 bps.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$92,374 and up a strong +6.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at just on +/- 3.3%.
PLEASE NOTE
There be no 4pm update tomorrow, Thursday, December 4, 2025. That is not because of a dearth of things to report, but because there will be no-one on hand to do that. The interest.co.nz team is taking the day off for our end-of-year function.
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16 Comments
I just found out that Swiss households have an average income of CHF 7,186 per month. That's NZD 15'900 per month, or NZD 206,700 per annum 😳 (In Switzerland, employees get a double salary in December, before bonus).
A lot more very rich people in Switzerland. The median monthly household income in New Zealand is quite close to that of Switzerland's and Switzerland may have higher living costs and extra tax/insurance to pay.
from AI we are 1/2 of the swiss, so zach is 1/2 quite close or are you wrong?
The median monthly household income in New Zealand is
approximately $8
,083
, based on a 2023 median annual household income of $97,000. To calculate this, the annual income is divided by 12:
- Annual median income: The 2023 Census reported a national median annual household income of $97,000, up from $75,700 in 2018.
The old average vs median calculation. The median figures are more reflective of reality for most households. Yvil's figure is an average and we all know Switzerland is a haven for very rich people but that wont be the "lived experience" of most of the population.
My AI gave me the somewhat odd comparison:
NZ median household income = NZD 10,250 per month
Swiss median disposable income = NZD 9,400 per month
I read that as the figure for NZ is gross while the Swiss is net. So Swiss median is actually more but then they do have extra expenses. The gist of it is that Yvil's average figure is possibly not the best indication of the wealth of typical Swiss folk. Us ordinary people aren't that much different in both countries.
best to be above average then
That may mean being in the top 10 or 20%. In Switzerland the top 10% of households have incomes greater than CHF 7,960 per month.
Have a great end-of year-function tomorrow, it will help NZ's economy, lol.
Aussie economy roaring ahead with…0.4% GDP growth. Real. GDP per capita growth 0%.
Discretionary spend in the toilet as essentials swallowing budgets.
https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australian-economy-g…
The Australian reckons 27% of all Australian dollars were created in the last five years. Behind a paywall and I can't be bothered working out what they did. But M2 has increased by much more than 27% over the last five years; the cumulative rise is on the order of 40-60% depending on the exact start month and data source, so 27% understates the growth.
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/australia/money-supply-m2
Their index fell -1.6% in November from October with dairy prices down -5.4% on that basis,
It's all good because all NZ households have felt the full effects of the recent dairy boom, just like the pundits and politicians said we would.
Hold my beer kiwis. What happens when you let ecotards loose on your national grid in a country awash with uranium, natural gas and coal. Power prices up 37% and the grid stability provided gratis from coal, gas and hydro generators gets swamped by spiking unreliables and forced base generation closures.
"The warning reflects a shift in emphasis from AEMO. While the operator has long argued for a dramatic increase in large-scale wind and solar, it is increasingly alarmed about the state of energy system security — the technical backbone that keeps the grid functioning even when supply is plentiful.
Reliability depends on having enough generation to meet demand. Security, however, hinges on the physical properties of the system — inertia, frequency control and system strength – that have historically been supplied by synchronised energy sources such as coal, gas and hydro. As those plants retire, the grid must rapidly replace their stabilising functions with technologies like big batteries and advanced inverters. Without them, AEMO warns, the system may have enough energy on paper but could become dangerously unstable in practice."
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/energy-operator-sounds-alarm-…
https://joannenova.com.au/2025/12/big-wind-and-solar-investors-flee-aus…
The reason Aussie power prices are high is because of the braindead deal they did on gas with the extractors
we have a very very stable grid in NZ , so much kinetic and the sync moves, also DC cable isolates north and south making it easier to restart
but yeah FUCgards abound internationally, just get personal energy independence ... please
thanks for the beer, it was getting warm holding it
What brews have you got for xmas?
I have
American brown ale - citra and simcoe but brewed cold with diamond larger yeast
Motueka pilsner - my simple always on tap goto not to bitter kiwi fav larger ferment
verdant yeast based us pale ale - sort of panhead clone
a few UK ales brambling cross and US cascade (not so uk, but it works) notty or us05
all about to move to keg for a 3 week condition at about 5c
and then a few chance luck and magics bottles from GP as I am just starting my own (have a few 50L kegs aging of my own) but love the GP product. I have a lot of fencing work to do over xmas, cant hit it to hard.
And have just started distilling so have a few gins aging, real simple stuff.
about to go to country woods nz and pick up annual supply of low slow bbq woods etc,
setting up fly tying desk is on cards over xmas as well, want to catch more on own tie then commercial 2026
mainly fish waimarino, waiok ... sometimes hini but had bad juju their, bit of big T if its on
knee injury means prob less deep/fast rivers from here on.
This number is not representative of power prices, is an artifact of a complex set of rebates.
"Excluding the impact of the various changes in Commonwealth and State electricity rebates over the last year, electricity prices rose 5.0 per cent, reflecting annual price reviews in July 2025."
I don't recall you talking about the double figure falls in electricity prices earlier in the year for some reason?
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/c…
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