Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Update: Liberty Financial cut its floating and 1 year fixed rates today. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today either. Update: Xceda cut all its 6mth to 3 year TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
QUEEN CITY STILL BEING DISCOUNTED
QV sees residential property values in 'a phase of consolidation' with average national dwelling values flat overall in November, but still declining in Auckland.
EXTENDED WEAKNESS
The overnight dairy Pulse auction of the two key milk powders brought more weakness. The SMP price fell another -0.5% from last week's full auction, but as the NZD is rising, it was actually down -1.6% in NZD terms. The WMP fared worse, down -3.6% on the same basis in USD, down -4.2% in NZD. It is not a good trajectory.
NOT LEAVING
There has been a sharp drop in the number of citizens who left the country long term in October, and this pushed up population gain from migration in October.
NOT IMPROVING
ANZ's tracking of road traffic activity found softness in November. Their Light Traffic Index eased -0.2% in the month to be +3.3% higher than a year ago. Their Heavy Traffic Index eased -0.1% in the month, to be up 0.9% from a year ago.
TOPPED OUT?
Tourism arrivals grew further in October compared to the previous month for the fourth consecutive month, but at a slower rate than the past three months. October arrivals were +0.6% higher than September, coming after +2.5 to +2.9% growth in each month between July and September (all figures seasonally adjusted). They are +9.3% higher than last year's weak levels. However, October 2025 arrivals were 93% of October 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels, down from a high-water mark of 95% in September 2025. (H/T Infometrics)
DO OUR NEW QUIZ
The latest quiz is now out. You can do it here.
NZX50 WEAKENS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.4% so far on Wednesday. That puts it down -1.3% over the past five working days. It is up +2.6% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.1% so far today. Vista Group, Napier Port, EBOS, and Freightways advanced while Gentrack, SkyTV, Sanford, and the NZX retreated.
GCSB GETS PROACTIVE IN DEFENCE
For the first time for such a large-scale public outreach, the GCSB's National Cyber Security Centre has contacted thousands of people to let them know that their devices may be infected with malicious software. The bad actor is the Lumma Stealer, which typically impacts devices using Microsoft Windows operating systems. It is designed to steal sensitive information, like email addresses and passwords, typically for the purposes of fraud or identity theft. More details here.
THE UPTURN BETTER COME SOON
The latest Quarterly Canterbury Business Survey from Business Canterbury, released today, shows business confidence trending upward still, but alongside clear signs that resilience is starting to wear thin.
FASTER (BUT STILL MINOR) INFLATION
In China, there was a slight rise in CPI inflation, enhance because the previous inflation was so low. Their inflation rose 0.7% in November from a year ago, as expected and accelerating from a +0.2% increase in October. This time, food price inflation was very low. It was the second consecutive month of consumer inflation and the fastest pace since February 2024.
STILL DEFLATING
Meanwhile China's producer prices fell into a steeper deflation, down -2.2% in November from a year ago.
SWAP RATES FIRM AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates maybe higher, especially at the short end today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.49% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 at 4.79% and near its highest since July 2011. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.85%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps from yesterday at 4.63%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate up +5 bps at 4.58%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.18%.
EQUITIES ALL WEAKER, AGAIN
The local equity market is down -0.4% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.3% and Shanghai is down -0.7%. Singapore is down -0.7% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.1%.
OIL STAYS WEAK
The oil price in the US is holding down at just under US$58.50/bbl while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just on US$62/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS LOW
Secondary market transactions are small and far between, but still at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIGHTLY FIRMER, SILVER ZOOMS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$19/oz from yesterday, now at US$4213/oz. Silver is still rising to a new record high, now just under US$61.50/oz
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is at just under 61.9 and little-changed.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$92,238 and up +2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%.
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19 Comments
Silver is still rising to a new record high, now just under US$61.50/oz
Important to remember that the silver price 10x'd in little over 12 months in 1979-1980.
JPMorgan, one of the largest shorters of gold and silver, got walloped and fell nearly 5% today. Financials are taking a beating while very few are paying attention to the space, and the stress is finally showing up where the leverage lives.
An ounce of silver now buys you an entire barrel of crude oil. And silver price up 6x as much as the S&P 500 YTD during one of the strongest stock market bull runs in history.
I still believe in the too good to be true philosophy . But maybe I’m the only one.
It was up nearly 5% yesterday. Next stop $96.
If you want to make real money you need to predict the downside not the upside.
I bought at $18 so I'm doing okay.
Not until you sell
Still nothing like a record high in real terms though, as I'm sure you are well aware, Phoenix.
In January of 1980, silver spiked to U$49.45/oz and to a reduction in the G:S price ratio of 1:17. Going on today's gold price, that ratio would translate to ~$250/oz.
Admittedly, the Hunt Bros had accumulated over 100 million oz of physical silver, and the price had jumped from $6.08 since 1979, but in that instance, it was really only one very wealthy family hoovering up large quantities of physical and futures.
Could this looming spike be even more dramatic, because (1) so many miners are selling directly to the customer, including in the East, and bypassing the dealers and exchanges?
Also, (2) there are attractive abitrage opportunities that can offer ~4% gains when silver is sent Eastward.
Add in (3) the rampant industrial demand that could cause panic buying of silver at any price, so that the big corporations can secure their supply lines and meet their production targets of EVs, electronics, solar panels, munitions, etc, and the prices could go utterly ballistic.
(4) Silver, finally being seriously rediscovered as a monetary asset by an increasing percentage of the global population.
(5) Major global private banks holding massive short positions - these include JPMC, HSBC, UBS, Citigroup, and Bank of America, etc - incidentally, two of those banks own more than 70% of the shares in the NY Fed - interesting times! Will that increase the likelihood of the chances of a massive bailout for those two banks when things inevitably go completely pear-shaped - shades of the 2008 GFC?
Rumour has it that the largest bank in the US has promises to deliver some $1 billion oz of silver, whilst their physical holdings are only a tiny fraction of that - where on earth is that supply going to come from?
Kama says that there should be no escape from this corner. This multiple-felon bank has painted itself into a corner with its own insatiable greed, and so we can only imagine what will happen when the markets at large finally figure out the supply and demand maths.
Hold onto your hats - could this become the mother of all short squeezes that reverberates around the globe in the first two quarters of 2026?
Regards
Col
AFR reports on how banks have found a way to “insure” trillions but potentially blow up the system again.
This financial instrument is called 'synthetic risk transfers', which enables them to buy insurance against the credit risk of the loan. They can then pile into loans while skirting around regulatory capital requirements.
Suppose the bank breaks up the $1 billion loan into a senior tranche that gets paid first, and a junior tranche that gets paid second.
Wouldn’t it be cool if the bank could keep both tranches on their balance sheet but buy insurance against the junior tranche going bad? That way they hold the loan but without so much of the regulatory capital burden.
Enter the synthetic risk transfers. By taking the credit risk of the junior tranche of the loan off the bank’s balance sheet they can hold less capital, yet get all the cashflows from those loans (less the price they pay for the synthetic risk transfers).
If that sounds to you like some totally contrived nonsense whose primary purpose is to circumvent regulatory capital requirements, then you’d be right. That’s exactly what it is. That’s exactly why the synthetic risk transfer was invented. And it’s exactly why synthetic risk transfers have the legal form they do.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-genesis-of-the-next-financial-cr…
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Smells exactly like synthetic CDO's pre-2008. Reaping the profit at the expense of depositors, er sorry, I mean the banks' collateral.
Swaps look like they're going 2021 vertical again - I just don't get why we've been cutting rates these past 6 months or so.
It's a bull trap, a head fake. Then the RBNZ will follow the sell-off and start hiking in February 2026, and we'll be talking about inflation again.
Well if swaps keep going with the current trend, we will be back to 50bps rises at each OCR review, starting at the first meeting next year.
Can imagine it now, swaps keep going vertical the next few months, and then Q4 2025 CPI data released in January comes in above 3%, banks keep shifting mortgage and TD rates higher. Inflation starts becoming more entrenched again, while the economy continues to stagnate (stagflation).
RBNZ completely change tune and say they are focused on mid-point 2% of CPI band so need to start raising rates aggresively to stamp out any risk of this inflation becoming any more embedded. We then have rising rates, shrinking GDP/economy, falling house prices.
Be great for retirees - might see 8% + term deposits the next few years on their massive pile of cash many of them have sitting in cash funds. They'll be creaming it for zero risk.
Wake up from your fantasy dream IO...
Funny I was saying similar things just after covid when monetary policy was too loose (O% OCR and rising inflation + swaps) and back then I repeatedly got told I was dreaming! Then it happened.
I said there was a good chance interest rates were going up above 5% in the near future and the response was by the property investor association: ‘you’re crazy and delusional man..the housing market and economy will never survive and OCR above 3%…’ But yeah OCR went above 5% and most of us survived to tell the tale (even though that outcome was apparently ‘delusional and impossible’ and entirely unexpected…well only if you don’t want to see what the data is saying!
I then realise it is those who tell you you are delusional are more probably describing themselves and not the reality of what is unfolding around us. Ie completely closed minded to potential outcomes/risks that has a reasonable chance of manifesting themselves based upon the information and tends the market is showing us (because they have a financial vested interest that avoids seeing this as a true potential outcome).
Swaps right now are saying a significant chance of much higher rates in the next 12 - 24 months. Will take a few more weeks to see if this trend embeds itself though. But they haven’t gone vertical like this since the last time the RBNZ misread the room and to me, I think they did again dropping the OCR again recently.
Snifter is freaking that his property bags will get even wetter, soggier and more underwater.......yes mortgages to hike in 2026 and the Oneroof clan be crying!
I doubt this new governor will do anything too exciting in either direction. Unless inflation really does surprise on the upside I suspect we’ll be at 2.25% for a long time.
Idk, RBNZ has a history of following the 2y, and the 2y has sold off nearly 100bps since October.
That's because they weight the medium term heavier than the short and long.
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