Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Update: Liberty Financial cut its floating and 1 year fixed rates today. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today either. Update: Xceda cut all its 6mth to 3 year TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
QUEEN CITY STILL BEING DISCOUNTED
QV sees residential property values in 'a phase of consolidation' with average national dwelling values flat overall in November, but still declining in Auckland.
EXTENDED WEAKNESS
The overnight dairy Pulse auction of the two key milk powders brought more weakness. The SMP price fell another -0.5% from last week's full auction, but as the NZD is rising, it was actually down -1.6% in NZD terms. The WMP fared worse, down -3.6% on the same basis in USD, down -4.2% in NZD. It is not a good trajectory.
NOT LEAVING
There has been a sharp drop in the number of citizens who left the country long term in October, and this pushed up population gain from migration in October.
NOT IMPROVING
ANZ's tracking of road traffic activity found softness in November. Their Light Traffic Index eased -0.2% in the month to be +3.3% higher than a year ago. Their Heavy Traffic Index eased -0.1% in the month, to be up 0.9% from a year ago.
TOPPED OUT?
Tourism arrivals grew further in October compared to the previous month for the fourth consecutive month, but at a slower rate than the past three months. October arrivals were +0.6% higher than September, coming after +2.5 to +2.9% growth in each month between July and September (all figures seasonally adjusted). They are +9.3% higher than last year's weak levels. However, October 2025 arrivals were 93% of October 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels, down from a high-water mark of 95% in September 2025. (H/T Infometrics)
DO OUR NEW QUIZ
The latest quiz is now out. You can do it here.
NZX50 WEAKENS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.4% so far on Wednesday. That puts it down -1.3% over the past five working days. It is up +2.6% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.1% so far today. Vista Group, Napier Port, EBOS, and Freightways advanced while Gentrack, SkyTV, Sanford, and the NZX retreated.
GCSB GETS PROACTIVE IN DEFENCE
For the first time for such a large-scale public outreach, the GCSB's National Cyber Security Centre has contacted thousands of people to let them know that their devices may be infected with malicious software. The bad actor is the Lumma Stealer, which typically impacts devices using Microsoft Windows operating systems. It is designed to steal sensitive information, like email addresses and passwords, typically for the purposes of fraud or identity theft. More details here.
THE UPTURN BETTER COME SOON
The latest Quarterly Canterbury Business Survey from Business Canterbury, released today, shows business confidence trending upward still, but alongside clear signs that resilience is starting to wear thin.
FASTER (BUT STILL MINOR) INFLATION
In China, there was a slight rise in CPI inflation, enhance because the previous inflation was so low. Their inflation rose 0.7% in November from a year ago, as expected and accelerating from a +0.2% increase in October. This time, food price inflation was very low. It was the second consecutive month of consumer inflation and the fastest pace since February 2024.
STILL DEFLATING
Meanwhile China's producer prices fell into a steeper deflation, down -2.2% in November from a year ago.
SWAP RATES FIRM AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates maybe higher, especially at the short end today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.49% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 at 4.79% and near its highest since July 2011. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.85%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps from yesterday at 4.63%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate up +5 bps at 4.58%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.18%.
EQUITIES ALL WEAKER, AGAIN
The local equity market is down -0.4% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.3% and Shanghai is down -0.7%. Singapore is down -0.7% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.1%.
OIL STAYS WEAK
The oil price in the US is holding down at just under US$58.50/bbl while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just on US$62/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS LOW
Secondary market transactions are small and far between, but still at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIGHTLY FIRMER, SILVER ZOOMS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$19/oz from yesterday, now at US$4213/oz. Silver is still rising to a new record high, now just under US$61.50/oz
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is at just under 61.9 and little-changed.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$92,238 and up +2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%.
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1 Comments
Silver is still rising to a new record high, now just under US$61.50/oz
Important to remember that the silver price 10x'd in little over 12 months in 1979-1980.
JPMorgan, one of the largest shorters of gold and silver, got walloped and fell nearly 5% today. Financials are taking a beating while very few are paying attention to the space, and the stress is finally showing up where the leverage lives.
An ounce of silver now buys you an entire barrel of crude oil. And silver price up 6x as much as the S&P 500 YTD during one of the strongest stock market bull runs in history.
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