A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; more rate hikes, retail shows small gains, factory PMI stays positive, Auckland housing completions stay low, swaps hold for short terms, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Co-op Bank has followed Westpac with mortgage rate changes, down for 6 months, up +30 bps for 2-5 years. Resimac has cut its floating rate. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Co-op Bank has also raised it 2, 3 and 4 year TD rates, some over 4% now. Welcome has trimmed all its TD rates 6 months to 2 years. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A BIT BRIGHTER
Some households with mortgages are finding their disposable incomes are rising as they refix at lower rates. Some of that extra is finding its way into retail spending. In fact, cardholders made 185 million transactions across all industries in November, with an average value of $55 per transaction. The total amount spent using electronic cards was $10 bln and that is a 1.2% rise from October, +1.6% more that November 2024. As modest as that may be, it is a brighter picture for retailers, and as more mortgages refix, the situation should get better.

SAYING POSITIVE
New factory order levels fell back in November from a good level in October, but not back into contraction. But most other metrics improved slightly so the overall factory PMI stayed positive even if momentum eased slightly. An expanding factory PMI is a good thing, but the more important services PMI will be out of Monday and that will reveal a broader influence on the economy. (The October PSI was in contraction.)

NOT SO POSITIVE YET, UNLESS A FIVE YEAR PERSPECTIVE
Auckland residential construction is still bouncing along the bottom. But despite the downturn in residential construction, new home completions in Auckland are up by more than 50% compared to pre-Covid levels

QUIZ REMINDER
If you haven't gotten around to it yet, this is just a reminder that this week's quiz is still open for you. You can do it here.

NZX50 FLAT AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed so far on Friday. That puts it down -1.0% over the past five working days. It is up +2.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.2% so far today. Gainers include Ryman, Kathmandu, Hallensteins, and SkyTV while the big decliners are led by Tourism Holdings, Oceania, Argosy, and F&P Healthcare.

"WHERE THE HELL ARE YA"?
Australia said they got 740,000 short term international visitors in October - which is less than the 775,000 they got in October 2019, so not full recovery in international tourism there yet. 60,000 were from Britain, 78,000 weer from China, and 141,000 were from New Zealand. These three accounted for more than a third of all their tourist arrivals. Meanwhile, Aussies returning home after vacationing came back from Indonesia (177,000), New Zealand (126,000) and Japan (102,000), and these three accounted for just over 30% of where Aussies returned from. Aussie international travel has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels by +11.5%.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates maybe marginally firmer today at the long end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.49% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.73%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.83%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps from yesterday at 4.63%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Thursday's rate down -4 bps at 4.57%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.15%.

EQUITIES FIRM BUT VARIED
The local equity market is up +0.1% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +1.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.9% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +1.4% but Shanghai is unchanged. Singapore is up +1.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +0.2%.

OIL SOFT
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 at just on US$58/bbl while the international Brent price is at just on US$61.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
Secondary market transactions are small and far between, now down at $39.75/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMER, SILVER UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$32/oz from yesterday, now at US$4269/oz. Silver is still rising, now just on US$63.50/oz

NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 at 49.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.2 and down -10 bps.

BITCOIN GAINS
The bitcoin price is now at US$92,635 and up +2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate also at +/- 2.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».