Here's our summary of key economic events over the holiday break that affect New Zealand with news metals prices are on the move higher today.
But first up, the December US non-farm payrolls report was something of a damp squib, but markets seemed to like it. The US economy added just +50,000 payroll jobs in December, less than a downwardly revised +56,000 in November and below forecasts of +60,000. These are the seasonally adjusted numbers. The raw data shows payrolls falling -192,000 and quite different to the equivalent small rise in December 2024. The broader population survey has overall employment falling -335,000 in December (double the 2024 change).
The US unemployment rate ended the year at 4.4%, a tick less than November's 4.5% but well above December 2024's 4.1% (and December 2023's 3.8%). Average weekly earnings rose +3.8% from a year ago, keeping pace with inflation.
Most analysts now see almost no chance of a rate cut at the Fed's January 29, 2026 meeting. Trump's inserted Miran remains an almost lone voice.
US consumer debt trends are showing similar signs of stress and are looking topped-out. Total debt rose by only +US$4.2 bln in November and well below market expectations of a modest +$10 bln rise. It is equivalent to a +1% annual rise. Revolving debt (credit cards, etc) fell at an annual rate of -1.9% while nonrevolving debt, which includes car and student loans, went up +2.0%.
US housing starts dived in November. They fell by -4.6% from the previous month, to their lowest since the pandemic in 2020.
So the latest update of a key consumer sentiment survey (this one from the University of Michigan) remained very low but little-changed in January from December and -25% lower than year-ago levels, -17% lower than two years ago.
And we should note that markets are now expecting the US Supreme Court to rule on its tariff case as early as next Thursday.
In Canada, employment was little-changed in December, up a minor +8200. But full-time employment grew +50,100 while part-time jobs shrank -42,000. It will be a rebalancing they will welcome. Their employed workforce is 21.1 mln, up +1.1% from a year ago. Analysts see much less of a chance of interest rate hikes in 2026 after this labour market result.
In Japan, household spending was expected to bounce back in November after the weak October result. It did, but by very much more than expected. That was enough to take it up +2.9% from a year ago and very much better than the market expectations for a -0.9% decline. It was the steepest rise since May, supported by higher winter-related purchases and easing inflation pressures on some essential goods.
Chinese CPI inflation is staying very low even if it did rise slightly in December. It came in +0.8% higher than year ago levels, marginally higher than in November. Beef prices were up +6.9% however from a year ago, sheepmeat prices up +4.4% on the same basis. Milk prices (now bundled into "dairy products") were down -1.8% on that annual basis. All these food price rises were a key reason for the overall CPI rise.
Chinese producer prices were little-changed, down -1.9% from a year ago and about what was expected.
Taiwanese exports were up +43% in December from a year ago, rising to the second-highest monthly level on record. The pace slowed from an unusual +56% burst in November. It says a lot about expectations in Taiwan that analysts were expecting a +46% rise.
Indian bank lending rose +14.5% in December from a year ago, the most in two years.
In Europe, retail sales rose at a + 2.3% year-on-year volume rate in November, up from a revised +1.9% in October and well above market expectations of just +1.6%. The return of rising consumer spending will be welcomed in the bloc. This impulse is broadly back to what they had in the 2017-2019 period.
We should also probably note that EU house prices are on the move up too, rising +5.5% in Q3-2025, and also back to what they had in the 2017-2019 period. (Of course, there are wide variations between the states in the EU.)
We should note as well that the EU, after overcoming deep dissension among its members (especially by France), gave the green light to a sweeping free trade deal with four South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) to create one of the largest free-trade zones in the world, connecting markets with more than 700 million people. The deal probably got over the line because of reaction to Trump's isolationist policies. It is interesting that this deal includes Argentina, which the US is propping up financially.
In Australia, an updated population review shows Australians are getting older and families are becoming smaller as the population is set to top 40 mln people in about 35 years.
World food prices dipped in December to end the year -2.3% lower than where it started. The key reason for the end of year fall was the sharpish retreat in global dairy prices, down -7.7% from the start of 2025. Meat prices also dipped at the end, but remained +3.4% higher than where they started.
The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.18%, unchanged from this time yesterday, down -1 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at a lesser +64 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now at +25 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is little-changed, now by +57 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.89%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is also holding at 2.09%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.67%, up +2 bps from yesterday but down -15 bps from this time last week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.44%, down -2 bps from yesterday, down -7 bps from a week ago.
Wall Street is rising to end its week with the S&P500 up +0.8% in Friday trade, heading for a +1.2% weekly gain. Overnight, European markets were all also up, between Frankfurt's +0.5% and Paris's +1.4%. Tokyo recovered sharply yesterday closing up +1.6% in its Friday trade and ending up +1.8% for the week. Hong Kong rose +0.3% for a weekly -0.5% retreat. Shanghai was up +0.9% on Friday and ended its week up a strong +3.4%. Singapore ended little-changed, up +0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Friday trade unchanged on the day, unchanged for the week. The NZX50 ended its week down -0.2% but up +1.1% for the week.
The Fear and Greed Index is in the 'neutral' zone from the 'fear' zone last week.
The price of gold will start today at US$4500/oz, and up +US$40 from yesterday, up +US$187/oz from a week ago. Silver is up +US$4 to US$80/oz. It is up more than +US$6/oz for the week. Copper is making another push higher too, to a new record. And aluminium is on the move up as well.
American oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just under US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just on US$63.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$57/bbl and US$60.50/bbl respectively.
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.3 USc. A week ago it was at 57.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 85.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 61.4, and down -10 bps from yesterday, down -30 bps from a week ago.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,399 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday, up +1.4% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed modest at just on +/- 1.2%.
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6 Comments
US consumer debt trends are showing similar signs of stress and are looking topped-out
Average credit card APRs are above 21% for all accounts and roughly 23% for accounts assessed interest, historically extreme levels that compound any balance carrying.
New car and personal loan rates are in the high single to low double digits, meaning refinancing or rolling debt is far more punitive than in the 2010s.
9 months of green candle on silver charts - that's a new record, comparable to 1980.
The metal to continues be aggressively accumulated and might be stabilizing at higher levels. Cheap silver might be history. And remember, Fannie and Freddie will be buying $200 billion worth of mortgages.
For 30-40 years, the Western investment banks have held the largest concentrated short position of any commodity in silver. BlackRock and JPM suppress the price and flood the market with paper silver. They sell the same bars over and over. The military-industrial complex gets a strategic metal for cheap.
The Global South have called their bluff. Instead of taking the paper, they are saying: “Give us the metal.” The entire system was built on pretending the bars were there, until someone actually asked for them.
This is a quiet collapse of Western financial and military dominance - and almost nobody is talking about it.
Oh dear. The comments section always attracts the bears. Never bet against the US economy. The world is dependent on the US militarily and economically. The US is dependent on no other country, unlike Russia and China which depend, of course, on the US. At last, the US is asserting itself as it should to assist the western world to maintain its peaceful existence. There are other countries not so benevolent, but kept in check by the US.
The US is dependent upon many other economies....for (heavy) crude, for rare earths, for materials, for markets, for funding, etc.
As long as they were aware of these facts they may have had a path....they are now clueless.
"The US is dependent on no other country"
Let us not kid ourselves.
The USA invasion of Venezuela is not about curbing narco-terrorism, nor is the mooted takeover of Greenland about defence. Neiter of these are sound justifications; Venezuela is not a significant supplier of fentanyl to the USA (cocaine, yes, but that is not claimed to be the issue) and the USA has been allowed bases and freedom of movement within Greenland since 1951.
Both of these are simply about control of resources for which the USA is dependent on.
Oh dear. The comments section always attracts the bears.
What does that mean? Understanding markets to understand risk/reward is not 'being bearish'. It's about understanding what's going on in terms of dynamics and capital flows.
I grant you that most people think that the idea of investment banks shorting silver is little more than conspiracy theory.
You can review the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders reports and monthly Bank Participation Reports to quantify commercial/bank net short positions in silver over time.
There is oodles of media reports covering what has happened re the investment bank behavior and silver / gold futures mkts. Just because you're not going to read about it in Granny, doesn't mean it's irrelevant.
https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
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