A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; some retail rate changes, NZGB hot demand retained, Aussie inflation stays high, China data inconsistent, swaps stable, equities weak, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Both China Construction Bank and the Nelson Building Society advised they are or have changed fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

WELLINGTON ON HOLIDAY
In case you didn't realise, today is a public holiday in Wellington, Anniversary Day.

NO PROBLEM SELLING NZ SOVEREIGN DEBT
Secondary market transactions in NZ Government bonds was high last week, at $75.3 bln. In the same week a year ago it was $41.8 bln. Demand for our sovereign debt paper is robust, you have to say.

AND THE LGFA IS IN THERE TOO
And there will be another $100 mln in LGFA bonds offered tomorrow, into the same attentive demand.

GOLD IS THE MAIN DEFENCE AGAINST THE ORANGE MENACE
The star of the markets today are the precious metals prices, particularly gold, which has risen to a new ATH. Two forces are at work - sharply rising risk sentiment flowing from American foreign policy actions, and an outsized drive by Chinese investors to hoard the yellow metal. They may be related.

OUR LATEST QUIZ IS STILL OPEN
Our quiz has been updated today for the new week. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 WEAKER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.6% so far today. That puts it down -0.3% over the past five working days. It is up +5.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a sharp -2.4% today. The main gainers (46) are NZX (+2.3%), Kathmandu (+1.8%), Freightways (+1.4%) and SkyCity casino (+1.0%). The main decliners (42) are Michael Hill (-3.2%), F&P Healthcare (-2.4%), Vista (-2.2%, and Oceania (-1.7%).

SIX YEAR LOW
In Japan, core machinery orders fell -11% in November from October, reversing the +7% gain in October and the steepest drop since April 2020. The decline was far worse than market expectations for a -5.1% fall.

LATE SURGE
Australia’s Monthly Inflation Gauge, as surveyed by the Melbourne Institute, surged +1.0% in December from November, the fastest pace since December 2023 and a sharp pickup from the prior two months. That puts its +3.5% ahead of year-ago levels. The recent surge may well get the RBAs attention.

DEPRECIATION GETS SHARPER
China said its house prices fell by -2.7% in December from a year ago. That was a -1.7% fall for new-builds and a massive -7.0% fall for resales. The overall results is the 30th consecutive month of price decreases and their fastest pace since July. There are no capital gains in Chinese housing, anywhere.

WEAK RESULT
China's retail sales rose just +0.9% year-on-year in December according to official data, slowing from a +1.3% increase and missing market expectations of a +1.2% gain. This is their weakest growth since December 2022.

GOOD CLAIMS
China said its industrial production was +5.2% higher than a year ago, and rising.

NO ACTUAL GROWTH
But China's electricity production was only +0.1% higher in December from the same month a year ago. It is hard to believe their industrial production data if this was the case.

MEETING XI's GOALS
All this data then results in a Q4-2025 4.5% rise in GDP, according to their official report, marginally better than the expected +4.4%. So they are claiming a neat +5% 2025 annual growth, expactly as the Party had said at the start of the year.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates probably be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.50% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.73%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.84%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.24% and up +6 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up another +5 bps from this time Friday, now at 4.53%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Friday's rate up +4 bps at 4.44%. The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from this morning at 4.24%.

EQUITIES STILL HESITATE
The local equity market is now down -0.5% in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is also down -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.7%% today so far but Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is down -0.5%% at its open. Wall Street is on holiday tomorrow, although the futures market will be operating.

OIL EASES IN US
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc at just on US$59/bbl while the international Brent price has hardly moved, now just over US$64/bbl.

CARBON PRICE SAYS LOW
Secondary market transactions have stayed low today but up to $33.50/NZU.  See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

PRECIOUS HIGHER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$69/oz from this morning, now at US$4665/oz and a new record high. Silver is up at US$93/oz and platinum is holding at US$2349/oz.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this morning, now just on 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.8 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$92,345 and down -2.8% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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