Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Both China Construction Bank and the Nelson Building Society advised they are or have changed fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
WELLINGTON ON HOLIDAY
In case you didn't realise, today is a public holiday in Wellington, Anniversary Day.
NO PROBLEM SELLING NZ SOVEREIGN DEBT
Secondary market transactions in NZ Government bonds was high last week, at $75.3 bln. In the same week a year ago it was $41.8 bln. Demand for our sovereign debt paper is robust, you have to say.
AND THE LGFA IS IN THERE TOO
And there will be another $100 mln in LGFA bonds offered tomorrow, into the same attentive demand.
GOLD IS THE MAIN DEFENCE AGAINST THE ORANGE MENACE
The star of the markets today are the precious metals prices, particularly gold, which has risen to a new ATH. Two forces are at work - sharply rising risk sentiment flowing from American foreign policy actions, and an outsized drive by Chinese investors to hoard the yellow metal. They may be related.
OUR LATEST QUIZ IS STILL OPEN
Our quiz has been updated today for the new week. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 WEAKER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.6% so far today. That puts it down -0.3% over the past five working days. It is up +5.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a sharp -2.4% today. The main gainers (46) are NZX (+2.3%), Kathmandu (+1.8%), Freightways (+1.4%) and SkyCity casino (+1.0%). The main decliners (42) are Michael Hill (-3.2%), F&P Healthcare (-2.4%), Vista (-2.2%, and Oceania (-1.7%).
SIX YEAR LOW
In Japan, core machinery orders fell -11% in November from October, reversing the +7% gain in October and the steepest drop since April 2020. The decline was far worse than market expectations for a -5.1% fall.
LATE SURGE
Australia’s Monthly Inflation Gauge, as surveyed by the Melbourne Institute, surged +1.0% in December from November, the fastest pace since December 2023 and a sharp pickup from the prior two months. That puts its +3.5% ahead of year-ago levels. The recent surge may well get the RBAs attention.
DEPRECIATION GETS SHARPER
China said its house prices fell by -2.7% in December from a year ago. That was a -1.7% fall for new-builds and a massive -7.0% fall for resales. The overall results is the 30th consecutive month of price decreases and their fastest pace since July. There are no capital gains in Chinese housing, anywhere.
WEAK RESULT
China's retail sales rose just +0.9% year-on-year in December according to official data, slowing from a +1.3% increase and missing market expectations of a +1.2% gain. This is their weakest growth since December 2022.
GOOD CLAIMS
China said its industrial production was +5.2% higher than a year ago, and rising.
NO ACTUAL GROWTH
But China's electricity production was only +0.1% higher in December from the same month a year ago. It is hard to believe their industrial production data if this was the case.
MEETING XI's GOALS
All this data then results in a Q4-2025 4.5% rise in GDP, according to their official report, marginally better than the expected +4.4%. So they are claiming a neat +5% 2025 annual growth, expactly as the Party had said at the start of the year.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates probably be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.50% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.73%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.84%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.24% and up +6 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up another +5 bps from this time Friday, now at 4.53%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Friday's rate up +4 bps at 4.44%. The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from this morning at 4.24%.
EQUITIES STILL HESITATE
The local equity market is now down -0.5% in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is also down -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.7%% today so far but Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is down -0.5%% at its open. Wall Street is on holiday tomorrow, although the futures market will be operating.
OIL EASES IN US
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc at just on US$59/bbl while the international Brent price has hardly moved, now just over US$64/bbl.
CARBON PRICE SAYS LOW
Secondary market transactions have stayed low today but up to $33.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
PRECIOUS HIGHER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$69/oz from this morning, now at US$4665/oz and a new record high. Silver is up at US$93/oz and platinum is holding at US$2349/oz.
NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this morning, now just on 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.8 and up +10 bps.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$92,345 and down -2.8% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.7%.
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13 Comments
Yes, Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for precious metals
The 6th para re gold concludes with the thought “they may be related.” Reminds me in the same fashion of my 6th form physics master halfway through the first term when he suddenly realised he had in the class two pupils by the name of Williams. He asked “Are you two related?”. The answer from one Williams, “no only one of us sir.” And thus the class just carried on.
Yes, Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for precious metals
Why blame Trump? Because everyone else is doing it?
Gold has surged as price-insensitive sovereign nations hoovered it up because they were afraid to remain in US treasuries and let Pax Americana steal their wealth like what the Biden admin did to Russia in 2022. Biden froze the treasury holdings of a nation that holds the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons and is the world’s biggest commodity exporter. If the US is willing to abrogate the property rights of Russia, then they could do it to any less powerful or naturally rich nation. Predictably, other nations could not in good faith increase their exposure to expropriation by holding treasuries. They began accelerating their purchases of gold.
Also, there is an insatiable appetite from sovereigns for gold is that settlement of net trade imbalances happens increasingly in gold. The record contraction of the US trade deficit in December 2025 is proof that gold is reestablishing itself as a global reserve currency. Greater than 100% of the change in the net trade balance of America is because of exports of gold.
The gap between exports and imports of goods fell by 11 per cent from the previous month to $52.8bn, according to data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday. That shrank the deficit to its smallest since June 2020 and was also narrower than the $63.3bn gap that economists polled by Reuters had predicted. The 3 per cent increase in exports from August to $289.3bn was mostly fueled by non-monetary gold. Imports climbed 0.6 per cent.
https://www.ft.com/content/41a9f325-9c17-4fb2-b4cf-064296d14042
Is it true that the EU has suspended all trade agreements with the US today, following Trump's tariff threats over Greenland ?
Have not heard that but several eu states sent forces to Greenland for excercise
Try this link. Yes it does seem they are heading for counter tariffs. Toughening up in my view. And I am sure there are frantic goings on behind the scenes to shape the response detail up.
We shall see.
Trade agreements...you mean those memorandums of 'understanding' that Trump extorted and ignores/changes at his whim?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/retail/ruby-high-st-store…
let’s face it CBD is not safe
Last week UK banks tapped an unprecedented amount of short-term liquidity from the Bank of England - around £99.3 billion in a 7‑day repo operation.
This is a sign of system-wide funding stress and the BoE’s shift to a “repo‑led” framework than clear evidence of an imminent banking collapse or fiat endgame. Should serve as a warning signal in the context of higher rates, tighter collateral conditions, and growing reliance on central bank balance sheets.
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/bank-of-england-allots-record-993-billion-po…
How is this possible?! The BOE used the LDI crisis to get rid of Liz Truss ages ago.
USD is crashing denominated in silver.
Silver surged above $94/oz for the first time - up another +31% in 2026.
"USD is crashing denominated in silver"
Pretty much everything is crashing if denominated in Silver price JC, even Gold.
Yes Dr Y. The rat poison cheerleaders are in shock. It's quite amusing.
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