A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; some smaller mortgage rate changes, more renters lower rents, service sector rises, NZX lower, gold stays high, swaps firmish, NZD rises, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank raised its 1yr fixed rate today. Heartland Bank reduced its reverse mortgage rates, including its Village Access rate, by -24 bps. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MORE RENTERS AT LOWER RENTS
Tenancy Services bond data shows that the number of rental properties being tenanted is up strongly, but overall median rents are down slightly.

FURTHER SIGNS OF LIFE
The latest BNZ-Business NZ Performance of Services Sector Index showed that the services industries, which make up about two thirds of our GDP, have moved into expansion for the first time since February 2024.

SHRINKING TO GROW
Fletcher Building has said it has sold its problematic construction division to large French company VINCI for over $300 mln. That includes Higgins, Brian Perry Civil, and Fletcher Construction and their 2300 employees. Fletcher Residential is likely to be next, as the company concentrates on its building products divisions.

CHEAP FUNDING?
BNZ said today that it wants to raise up to $650 mln with a new series of 5 year unsecured unsubordinated fixed rate notes. It is seeking at least $100 mln, but will take over-subscriptions up to $650 mln. They are expecting to pay a skinny margin of about 0.75%. That would make this funding cost about 4.35% depending on wholesale markets when it closes. BNZ currently offers 5 year retail term deposits at 4.10%.

PAYING UP
ASB's settlement with the class action claimants of $135 mln for alleged CCFA breaches has now been approved by the High Court. They said "in resolving the litigation ASB makes no admission of liability". !!

IS GULL + NPD ANTI-COMPETITIVE?
The Commerce Commission is seeking feedback on the potential competitive impacts of the proposed acquisition by Astra Energy Group for both the Gull, and the NPD fuel distribution networks.

OUR LATEST QUIZ IS OPEN TO PLAY
Our quiz has been updated for the new week. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 WEAKER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% so far today. That puts it down -1.0% over the past five working days. It is up +4.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +3.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed today. There are 30 gainers led by Fletcher Building (+2.1%), Ryman (+1.0%), Summerset (+0.7%) and Auckland Airport (+0.6%). There are 49 decliners, led by NZME (-2.9%), Spark (-2.6%), Kathmandu (-1.8%) and Chorus (-1.6%).

CONFIRMED
New RBNZ research shows that NZGB-swap spreads tend to become more volatile during periods of global sovereign bond market illiquidity. The increase in NZGB-swap spreads since mid-2023 has been correlated with higher sovereign bond-swap spreads in a range of jurisdictions, but more than half of that is due to US-derived uncertainty.

HD FOR MORTGAGE FRAUD
A second defendant in the Serious Fraud Office’s (SFO) investigation into alleged mortgage fraud has been sentenced to nine months home detention at the Auckland District Court. Gurraj Singh Bhachu, who no longer has name suppression, pleaded guilty in September 2025 to 12 charges relating to four properties involved in the alleged mortgage fraud. His sentence of nine months’ home detention took into account discounts for his guilty plea, remorse and cooperating with the SFO’s investigation. Six months’ standard release conditions were also imposed.

UNCHANGED
As widely expected, China left both its 1 year and 5 year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at record low levels.

SURVEILLANCE
A Norwegian bus operator has found that Yutong busses produced in China are monitored remotely by the Chinese manufacturer in an undisclosed way via 'software updates', raising the possibility that could be a "kill switch" across the system. Yutong busses have become very popular internationally, now with more than a 10% global market share. The Norwegian discovery is causing widespread angst. (There are only 38 Yutong busses operating in New Zealand, according to the NZTA database.)

ANOTHER APPROACH
It might be worth noting that Japanese company Panasonic is concluding field trials and about to release a spray product that substantially increases photosynthesis to take up substantially more atmospheric CO2 in crops and trees. It avoids using fertiliser. Some details here.

SWAP RATES MARGINALLY HIGHER
Wholesale swap rates are probably a little firmer today on global risk trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% yesterday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.77%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.33% and up another +9 bps on "election promises" worries. That is almost a 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp from this time yesterday, now at 4.54%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday's rate up +5 bps at 4.49%. The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from yesterday at 4.25% and still its highest since September 2025.

EQUITIES SOFT
The local equity market is now down another -0.5% in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is also down -0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.8% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.3% today so far and Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is also down -0.2%% at its open. Wall Street is on holiday today, although the futures market suggests it will open tomorrow down -0.5%.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is up less than +50 USc at just under US$59.50/bbl while the international Brent price has hardly moved, still just on US$64/bbl.

CARBON PRICE IN MINOR RISE
Secondary market transactions have risen to $36.20/NZU on a number of small trades. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

PRECIOUS STAY HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4670/oz and a new record high. Silver holding at US$93/oz and platinum has dipped to US$2341/oz.

NZD FIRMER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 86.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.2 and up +30 bps.

BITCOIN FLAT
The bitcoin price is now at US$92,536 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at +/- 0.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».