Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB hiked its 4 and 5 year fixed rates today. UnityMoney also raised fixed rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Mutual Credit Finance raised some TD rates today. NBS did too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
PERSONAL LOAN STRESS BUILDING
Equifax says home Loan enquiries finished the year on a strong note, driven by sustained switching activity and a fresh boost from the late November -25 bps OCR cut. They noted hardship volumes continue to ease for home loans and credit cards, but pressure is building within the personal loan segment.
TRACTOR RECOVERY
There were 169 new tractors registered in December, the most for a December month since 2022. That is now eight straight months of year-on-year increases. And apart from the pandemic recovery, that is the most positive its been sine 2019.
20% BRANCH CUTBACK
NZ Post said today it is closing "142 urban retail partner stores" nationwide in 2026. But the remaining network of 567 stores will still be significantly larger than any New Zealand supermarket or bank branch network. In fact, 90% of Kiwis living in urban areas will still be within 4 km of an NZ Post store.
OUR LATEST QUIZ IS OPEN TO PLAY
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 HOLDS TO START THE WEEK
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up just +0.1% so far today. That puts it down -0.8% over the past five working days. But is up +4.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +3.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.1%. a2 Milk, Chorus, Vector, and Skellerup lead today's gainers, while SkyCity casino, Summerset, Mainfreight, and Scales are the main decliners.
RE-SIGNED, THEN SOLD
Following the extension of the lease to ASB for its headquarters North Wharf building, Kiwi Property said it will now sell it for $205 mln to a Precinct investment partnership.
UP-TICK NOT WHAT IT SEEMS
Actual credit card billings on NZ-issued cards came in +3.5% higher in December than the same month in 2024. But when the RBNZ seasonally adjusted this (taking into account how the season fell with holidays and weekends), it was only a sub-optimal +0.8% rise, far less than inflation. No great sign of a retail recovery here. And for all of 2025, billing on credit cards came in at $46.4 bln, a mere +1.4% gain over the 2024 total of $45.8 bln, and also confirming dour retail conditions.
CONDITION IMPROVE, SENTIMENT LESS SO
In Australia, business sentiment as measured by the NAB survey, was stable and mildly positive in December. Business conditions however improved more strongly on better sales and margins.
A LATE TICK UP
In China, industrial profits rose +5.3% in December from the same month a year ago. They will be pleased with that because for the whole of calendar 2025 they were up merely +0.6% (and would have declined but for the late December rise).
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% yesterday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.84%. The China 10 year bond rate is -1 bp softer at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.28% and up +4 bps today as their bond market reels. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps from this morning, now at 4.60%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday's rate up +1 bp at 4.59%. The UST 10yr yield is also little-changed from this morning's open at 4.22%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now up +0.1% in Monday trade so far. However, the ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is unchanged in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.4% today so far and Shanghai is down -0.6%. Singapore is up +1.0% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +0.5%.
OIL DIPS
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc at just under US$60.50/bbl while the international Brent price now at US$65/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS LOW
Secondary market has seen few transactions and the price is still at $34/NZU today. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SETTLES IN, HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$25/oz from this morning, now at US$5062/oz. Silver down -US$5 at US$110/oz, and platinum is now at US$2686/oz, down -US$170 from this morning's spurt.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is holding up from this morning's open at just on 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.3 and down -20 bps from this morning's open.
BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$88,712 and up +1.2% from this morning. Volatility has remained low at +/- 0.9%.
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10 Comments
KiwiSaver withdrawals surge in 2025 | RNZ News
More than 10,000 more withdrawals were made from KiwiSaver for hardship reasons last year than in 2024, and providers say there's no sign of the rate slowing.
Inland Revenue data shows there were 58,460 withdrawals for hardship reasons in 2025, 10,000 more than were made for a first home.
In total, $514.8 million was withdrawn from KiwiSaver because of hardship, and $2.1 billion for a first home.
In 2024, there were 47,390 hardship withdrawals to a total of $403.8m
It'll be interesting to see if Kiwisaver becomes the de facto pension fund for retirement in years to come and how these early withdrawals end up affecting the retired relying on it.
Well if folk are withdrawing funds, prior to reaching pension age, chances are the final nest egg will not be enough to rely on. You therefore ask a very good question because in essence the whole concept of Kiwi Saver is thus weakened , if not defeated.
Typically, those withdrawing money only get a small amount rather than the entire sum. Nevertheless any withdrawal, especially early on, will have a big impact on the amount they will have at retirement. Retirement age comes around awfully quick.
A USD10,000 lump-sum investment in Apple at the start of 1990 would be worth USD10-11 million today.
Monster energy drink even better over same time period - up to USD27 million. Monster is one of the strongest long‑run performers in modern equity history.
And in Aotearoa, we pissed it up against the wall for the Ponzi.
NZ invented V and they turn over around a billion a year.
5 trillion dollars was pissed away by investors trying to find the next Apple in the late 90s.
Silly viewpoint is silly.
It is what it is P. Even Rocket Labs has a 20x return within past 2 years. Like data center and AI cloud infrastructure investments, it's all about timing. 2024 was a special year in that regard.
10,000 USD in 1990 is like 100,000 NZD now. A not insignificant sum to invest in an energy drink.
"And in Aotearoa, we pissed it up against the wall for the Ponzi"
Did no one tell me it was silly comment day today?
Did no one tell me it was silly comment day today?
Not all all. If your incentives are wrong, then there is less opportunity for innovation and businesses to grow. I gave the example of Rocket Labs. There's a reason they're listed on the NASDAQ.
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$25/oz from this morning, now at US$5062/oz. Silver down -US$5 at US$110/oz, and platinum is now at US$2686/oz, down -US$170 from this morning's spurt.
There was a violent intraday swing where gold and silver spiked to fresh records and then sold off so hard that the implied combined value of above‑ground “market cap” dropped by about USD1.7 trillion in approx 90 mins - the largest nominal reversal in history and the entire mkt value of the ol' rat poison.
As soon as China mkts opened, silver proxies on ASX exploded.
What a time to be alive.
"Mr Trump promised Americans a new golden age. Nobody envisaged it would quite work out like this."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-27/donald-trump-triggers-a-gold-rus…
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