A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; some TD rates start rising, return to fixed home loans, house prices not rising, greenhouse gasses fall, retail stays weak, swaps soft, NZD lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ changed TD rates comprehensively today, including taking their five year offer to 4.40%. Welcome has also raised rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

RECORD SURGE
RBNZ data recorded a record surge in amount of mortgage money moving to fixed rates in December as homeowners digested November OCR announcement and then acted - decisively. Basically there has been a stampede of mortgage holders racing from floating to fixed.

NOT CHANGING
Cotality's Home Value Index monitoring reveals little movement in housing values at the start of the year as the national average dwelling value was down -0.1% in January.

FALLING
Total greenhouse gas emissions fell -1.1% in the September 2025 quarter, StatsNZ reported today. Other than the much lesser need to use fossil fuels for electricity generation, the largest decline was by the rural sector - again.

JANUARY 2026 AS WEAK AS JANUARY 2025
Worldline says consumer spending across core retailers in January was up slightly on the same month last year, but dips occurred on Wednesday, January 21, when extreme weather hit several regional areas, taking the top off the overall results.

KEEPING IT SHORTER
73% of all non-market bank funding (customer deposits) were on at call or less than 90 days, as at December 2025. This is the highest since April 2023. This ratio got down to 68.7% in between.

OUR QUIZ IS AVAILABLE FOR YOU
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 IN ANOTHER MINOR FIRMING
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed so far today. That puts it up +0.9% over the past five working days. It is up +4.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.5% so far today. Vista Group, Ryman, Skellerup, and Gentrack lead from the front as Heartland, Summerset, Kiwi Property, and Infratil are the big decliners in the NZX50.

GOLD (& FARMS) SAVES THE DAY
Australia recorded an actual merchandise trade surplus of +AU$6.7 bln in December, down -23% from the same month in 2024, taking the full 2025 surplus to +AU$45.0, which in turn was -33% lower than for all of 2024. Exports were $523.2 bln for the year, up only +1%. That gain was only possible because gold exports rose +65.8% to AU$60.9 bln for the full year. Rural exports rose +13.7% to AU$77.5 bln in 2025. Other mineral exports tanked

SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.85%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.24 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down another -4 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.55%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Wednesday's rate also down -4 bps at 4.56%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at 4.27%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
But the local equity market is little-changed in Thursday trade so far to end the week. The ASX200 is has dipped, down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is little-changed in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -1.2% today so far and Shanghai is down -0.6%. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade down -0.5%.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is unchanged from this time yesterday at just on US$64/bbl while the international Brent price is just under US$68.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been some good trades today on the secondary market and the price has held at $37.75/NZU and back near its early January levels. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen back from this time yesterday, down -US$65/oz from this time yesterday and now at US$4978/oz. Silver down -US$3, now at US$85/oz.

NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps against the USD at just on 60.1 USc although all this happened last night. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 85.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.6 and down -40 bps from yesterday..

BITCOIN SLIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$72,080 and down another -5.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high however at +/- 3.3%.

HOLIDAY
Friday, February 6, 2026 is a public holiday in New Zealand. We will not be publishing this update tomorrow. We will be back normally from Saturday.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».