Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Both ASB and Kiwibank raised most of their key fixed rates today. More here. The Police Credit Union moved too. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank and ASB also raise some term deposit rates today. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BIG IMPORVEMENT IN RENTAL AFFORDABILITY
Properties available to rent on Realestate.co.nz are now at a 10-year high. This is happening while rents are falling with huge improvement in rental availability and affordability, especially in Wellington.
MISLEADING PENALTY
FMG Insurance / Farmers’ Mutual Group has admitted to fair dealing breaches and, as well as remediating customers, has agreed to pay $2.1 mln in lieu of a pecuniary penalty, pursuant to an enforceable undertaking. FMG's self-report followed an FMA investigation, itself following an earlier FMG self-report.
A NEW QUIZ IS AVAILABLE NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 IN A SMALL SLIP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% so far today. That puts it down -0.1% over the past five working days. It is up +3.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -2.1% so far today. The main gainers are Skellerup, Vista Group,Gentrack and PFI while the main decliners are Chorus, F&P Healthcare, Oceania and Spark.
FORAN'S NEXT GIG
Ex-AirNZ CEO Greg Foran is returning to the US as CEO of Krogers, the largest supermarket chain with 2700 stores. Recall, he used to be WalMart's domestic US business head, so it is a return to that industry. He is the replacement for the ex-CEO for Kroger who was forced out on a misconduct claim.
SLOW TO REVEAL
Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand have signed a new agreement and adopted new procedures to streamlining trans‑Tasman standards, and harmonising the adoption of international standards. Interestingly, the new Agreement took effect from January1, 2026 but they are now only telling everyone about it.
SOFTER IN DECEMBER
In Australia, household spending fell -0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. The only category that rose notably was alcohol sales. This follows rises of +1.0% in November and +1.4% in October. Household spending over the year remains high, up +5.0% in the year to December 2025.
SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today, perhaps marginally softer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.49% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.87%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up + bps at 2.27 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down another -1 bp from this morning, now at 4.56%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Thursday's rate also down -2 bps at 4.54%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from this time morning, now at 4.22% and holding its recent lower level.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER, NZX MISSES OUT
But the local equity market is a little softer in Monday trade, down -0.2% so far. The ASX200 is has risen a sharp +1.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +4.5% in its opening trade, with a post-election glow. Hong Kong is up +1.5% today so far and Shanghai is up +0.9%. Singapore is up +0.6% at its open. Wall Street efutures are signaling the S&P500 will open up +0.4% tomorrow.
OIL SOFTISH
American oil prices are down about -50 USc at just on US$63/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE RISES
There have been some more good trades today on the secondary market and the price has risen +50c to $38.25/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold has risen from this morning, up +US$24/oz and now at US$4990/oz. Silver is up +US$2, now just over US$80/oz.
NZD IN SOFT HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this morning's open against the USD at just on 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 85.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.7 and down -10 bps from today's open..
BITCOIN SOFTISH
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,380 and down another -0.4% from this morning's open. Volatility has been moderate however at +/- 2.1%.
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12 Comments
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Tokyo is up +4.5% in its opening trade, with a post-election glow.
Yes indeed. Kioxia (previously known as Toshiba Memory Corp) up 5% today; 92% this year; and 1,082% in past 12 months.
Who needs crypto or the Antipodean Ponzis when you have Kioxia?
Japanese Prime Minister triumphs tactically, strategically and convincingly. The real victor though is conservatism. To the west a similar outcome in Thailand. Nations are now looking to look after themselves first and foremost and Japan, up until 1945 regarded as an empire, is now reclothing itself in the same power play. World war, Cold War , globalisation perhaps the newsreel of world affairs is going into rewind.
Nations are now looking to look after themselves first and foremost and Japan, up until 1945 regarded as an empire, is now reclothing itself in the same power play
Which is something I believe Japan has always been aware of (looking after #1 as much as possible). Which is why ensuring an infrastructure surplus has been a smart long-term strategy on their part.
For all his peculiarities, histrionics and vanities you might though ask just how perspicacious General Douglas MacArthur was, with what was to unfold, when he stepped into Japan in 1945.
He often framed the Japanese as politically and socially “immature” and in need of guidance from a more “advanced” power, yet argued that if Japan’s “energy” and “talents” were redirected from territorial expansion to economic and social development, they could become a constructive force in the world.
Aussie ranks 2nd in wealth per capita measures.
And yet Gallup reports that Aussie is the 3rd worst among nations considering the economic problem of affordable food or shelter. It's nestled in with sub-Saharan Africa nations, alongside Ireland and Canada.
Among those developed nations, all three countries face well-documented housing crises, with younger adults most likely to say that affording basic needs is the country’s biggest problem. And in all three, satisfaction with the availability of good, affordable housing has declined significantly this decade, falling to 25% across the board in 2025.
Ponzinomics has trade-offs.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/701438/economic-anxiety-global-problem.aspx
And yet everyone wants to move there.
U.S. commercial real estate apocalypse now at record levels. The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices jumped +103 basis points in January, to a record 12.3% - surpassing the post-GFC 2008 peak by 1.6 percentage points.
The delinquency rate has soared +600% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the delinquency rate for multifamily CMBS rose +30 basis points, to 6.9%, the 3rd-highest since December 2015.
The overall US CMBS delinquency rate increased +17 basis points, to 7.5%, the highest in at least 5 years.
All happening at the top end of town.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/03/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-t…
I whistle past that graveyard , much safer to be invested in the AI interlinked investment circle jerk...
It feels very GFC ish, these wild market swings are normally signs of a top.
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