Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. These changes essentially match the big five banks. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RENTERS CHANGE OUT TO AVOID HIGHER RENTS
Bonds data shows a strong growth in rental activity in final quarter of 2025, but rents were softer overall. It was a shift particularly noticeable in the Wellington region.
MANY SELLING AT A LOSS
Cotality's Pain & Gain Report shows nearly one-in-six (17.4%) of Auckland residential sales were done a sales prices that recorded a loss for the seller in the fourth quarter last year. Nationally it was one-in-eight.
RECORD HIGH PAYE TAXES ON INDIVIDUALS
Treasury released the six month Crown Accounts to December 2025 today. Comparing the the December HYEFU, the variances are generally 'favourable. But the details revealed some interesting signals about the overall economy. First, December month GST revenue was weak, down -1.6% from the same month in 2024. But December income tax collected from individuals exceeded $6 bln for the first month ever, and was up 3.3% on December 2024 (+$460 mln). Together these metrics suggest a sluggish economy. GST has been stuck at the annual rate of $30 bln since August, with consumers quite restrained. But the income take jump reveals the corrosive power of bracket creep. Plus there were some big public sector backpay settlements made in the month (nurses and allied health workers). These enabled the Government to take an outsized share. Overall, OBEGAL turned positive in the month (+$388 mln) on the higher PAYE tax take, but for the rolling twelve months prior it is still at -$4.9 mln in deficit.
DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 TURNS UP SLIGHTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.3% so far today. That puts it up +0.5% over the past five working days. It is up +6.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% so far today in a further yoyo pattern. Channel Infrastructure, Skellerup, Meridian, and Contact are the top gainers; SkyCity casino, Gentrack, Summerset, and Tourism Holdings are the big decliners
STILL IN HOT DEMAND - FOR THE RIGHT PRICE
There was another very popular NZGB tender today, seeking $450 mln in tow nominal bonds and $25 mln in an inflation linker. The two nominal bongs got 86 bids worth $1.79 bln. The resulting yields were marginally lower than the prior equivalent versions. The small linker went for a yield of 3.06% (plus CPI) and well above the 2024/2025 average of 2.64%..
PROFIT BOOST
ANZ released first quarter results for the Group and investors loved them, especially the profit rise from aggressive cost cutting, reporting AU$1.89 bln for the quarter. So far today, ANZ shares have risen +8.6%, and that pushes them up +27% from this time last year. Within the trading result data released, the rise in NZ home loans seems to be good, and the rise in deposits also good. Customer debt quality improved.
PROFIT DROP
Meanwhile, dominant insurer IAG reported its New Zealand results today, as part of the overall IAG reporting. Investors didn't like this much, with their share price falling -5.6% today to be down -13.8% from a year ago. Their Group has got indigestion from trying to swallow the RACQ acquisition. Locally, insurance profit for NZ Retail (State and AMI) fell more than -5%, and for NZ Institutional (NZI) was down -27%. All this while the company acknowledged lower than expected extreme event claims. Together, New Zealand insurance profit of AU$268 mln was reported, down from AU$311 mln for the same six-month period in 2024/25.
CORPAY SLAPPED
Australian regulator ASIC has imposed additional licence conditions on the local subsidiary of Corpay following ongoing compliance failures in its foreign exchange derivatives business. Corpay also operates in New Zealand.
HIGHER INFLATION EXPECTED
In Australia. consumer inflation expectations rose in February to 5.0%. This follows a seven-month period of below five-per cent expectations. The increase in February is present across a number of inflation expectations measures.
SYSTEM CHANGE
And staying in Australia, chances are rising that extended drought conditions related to the return of an El Niño weather pattern will come later in 2026. It will be hotter there too. If that occurs, there will be spillover implications for New Zealand, particularly for the rural sector. At lease we are going into this with good hydrology.
SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally firmer today except perhaps for the 1 year. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate held at 2.49% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.80%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps 1.78%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -4 bps at 2.19 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.52%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Wednesday's rate down -4 bps at 4.49%. The UST 10yr yield is back up +3 bps from yesterday, now just on 4.17%.
EQUITIES MIXED
But the local equity market is a little firmer in Thursday trade, up +0.2% so far. The ASX200 is up +1.0% however in afternoon trade. Tokyo is back from yesterday's holiday and is weaker in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.6% today so far and Shanghai is unchanged. Singapore is up +0.6% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 directionless, confused by the odd non-farm payrolls report.
OIL IN MARGINAL FIRMING
American oil prices are up about +50 USc from yesterday at this time at just on US$65/bbl, and the international Brent price is now at US$69.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STALLS
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market and the price is holding at $40.25/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS SLIGHTLY AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold has risen slightly from this time yesterday, up +US$11/oz and now at US$5059/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just over US$83/oz.
NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 84.8 AUc. Against the yen we are down -60 bps. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.9 and little-changed from yesterday.
BITCOIN DIPS FURTHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$67,686 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate however at +/- 2.3%.
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12 Comments
ANZ released first quarter results for the Group and investors loved them, especially the profit rise from aggressive cost cutting, reporting AU$1.89 bln for the quarter. So far today, ANZ shares have risen +8.6%, and that pushes them up +27% from this time last year.
Which is interesting. Comparatively, CBA up 12% for the week but only 10% over 12 months. It seems ANZ has outperformed CBA mainly because ANZ offers better value and earnings momentum from a lower-cost, growth-focused base, while CBA is seeing margin pressure and de-rating from a previously expensive valuation.
ANZ's operating expenses are down 21%. It seems they're cutting about 3,500 roles (plus ~1,000 contractor roles) by September 2026, with around 60% of these roles already exited by end‑2025, delivering an 8% quarterly expense reduction.
Maybe firing more could help even more ?
I suggest no one needs the house price forecasts
It’s interesting, back in the eighties cost cutting, reducing overheads etc became known colloquially as sharpening the or your pencil. That in turn introduced a somewhat unintended consequence in that continuation of that action would eventually result in no pencil being left to sharpen. It seems that today large institutions, such as being demonstrated here by the ANZ, rather than sharpening are squeezing the tube, the entire operation in other words. Guess you might then enter a similar analogy with toothpaste instead of lead?
AI will take a mallet to that toothpaste tube
Thinking of the old family workshop, would imagine that the vice, rather than the mallet, would be the preferred tool.Somewhere too, in the back of my mind the Monty Python Spanish Inquisition skit has now come into focus.
It’s interesting, back in the eighties cost cutting, reducing overheads etc became known colloquially as sharpening the or your pencil.
Yes. But whatever you look at it, ANZ has to be the boomer stock of 2025. Has far exceeded my expectations (even though I rarely look at bank stocks).
Saw a comment on social media about ANZ- / CBA-branded wheelbarrows (to carry the cash).
Living beyond your means, probably nothing but just in case maybe a jot of gold here
And there’s a real, immediate cost to this. This year, the US government will need to spend $US1 of every $US5 of government revenue just to pay the interest bill on the national debt. By 2035, that’s projected to rise to $US1 in $US4, and by 2050, it’s expected to be $US1 in $US3.
I wonder how much they factor in the radically changing nature of American leadership, or if they're just doing the standard economic practice of assuming the status quo remains constant, forever.
You think the left will spend less?
they are going to run USD into the ground be worthless revalue on gold and walk away from debt
The second one.
They need the rest of the world less than most places. So might as well just kamikaze it and say you don't wanna play no mo'
Hugh Hendry waxing lyrical on rat poison. An interesting take called "Bitcoin and the Problem of Hardness" (behind paywall).
For years, i treated bitcoin as something i understood well enough to have an opinion on, but not well enough to take apart properly.
that wasn’t laziness. it wasn’t lack of curiosity. it was the quiet assumption that whatever bitcoin was trying to solve, modern finance had already found a workaround.
this fourth, violent drawdown forced me to reconsider that assumption.
not as a trade, not as a belief system, but as a monetary object with consequences. at this point in its life, repeated collapses are no longer a curiosity. they are a feature that demands explanation.
this piece is my attempt to finally map the terrain i’d been circling for years: bitcoin’s hardness, its fragility, its human governance, and its uneasy relationship with a world that increasingly runs on elastic money and digital abundance. it’s not a defence. it’s not an indictment. it’s an audit.
writing it surprised me. i came away less certain about price, more certain about structure, and far more interested in the question of whether bitcoin’s biggest risk has ever been the mathematics at all.
if you’ve felt confident dismissing bitcoin, or confident believing in it, this is written for you. it left me sharper. i hope it does the same for you.
https://hughhendry.substack.com/p/bitcoin-and-the-problem-of-hardness
He had been pumping Bitcoin over the last 12 months. His rationale was based on a relatively small market cap.
Then again even though he called the GFC, he had to be repeatedly wrong about gold futures a few times. But he generally discourages mining company shares.
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