Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today other than for Heretaunga Building Society. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are changes today from SBS Bank, Rabobank, NBS, Heretaunga Building Society, and Gnerela Finance. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
PAST THE CYCLE LOW
The latest December net migration data shows a gain of +14,200 immigrants in calendar 2025, down from a net gain of +23,800 in 2024, and this was the lowest for a calendar year since 2013 (excluding the pandemic). In December alone the data suggests the the low point may have passed and small increases are now starting to show up
STILL 5% TO GO FOR FULL RECOVERY (AFTER FIVE YEARS)
Tourism's slow recovery after the pandemic is still happening. Overseas visitor arrivals were 502,600 in December, an increase of +32,800 from December 2024. That puts it at 95% of the December 2019 level. The biggest changes were in arrivals from Australia (up 16,100), China (up 6,400), the UK (up 2,300), and Singapore (up 1,400).
FACTORY EXPANSION CONFIRMED
The January factory PMI came in at a good positive level, confirming the December uptick. Good growth in new orders was part of the improvement, extending this aspect which started in October 2025.
GROWING FASTER THAN THE ECONOMY
MSD has 'system issues' which prevent it from releasing the full monthly and quarterly benefit claims data updates for December. But they have released overall main benefit claimant totals for December, and those are up +4.3% from a year ago as at December 2025, to 427,236 people (or 13.2% of the working age population). This partial data also included top-time Jobseeker data, at 223,512, up +4.8% to 6.9% of the working age population.
MONITORING CAR INSURANCE PREMIUMS
Four of the five on-line car insurance quoting systems we monitor have reduce their premiums in 2026 compared to Q4-2025. The magnitude of the shifts has varied between the type of vehicle, and the cities we track. Taking the tow most popular cars, in Auckland (the most expensive city), a new Toyota RAV4 has seen a drop of -4.4% on average, between Tower's -15% reduction to AA Insurance's +4.3% rise. Tower is now the lest expensive in our comparison. At the start of Q4-2025, the least expensive was State.
DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NO LET UP IN EXPECTED INFLATION PRESSURE
The RBNZ runs three surveys of 'expectations' of specific parts of the economy. They have one for consumers, one for business, and today they released their one of the views of 'experts' (economists, researchers and analysts, and market participants). Today's Q1-2025 one covers the views of about 40 'experts'. (It is similar to surveys run by the US Fed and the ECB.) This one records a big jump in expected inflation, both for one year out (up +20 bps to 2.59%) and two years out (up +9 bps to 2.37%). While these increases are not as much as we saw in the June quarter, they compound it, so the one year is up +44 bps in a year, and the two year is up +31 bps in the same year. The RBNZ will have noticed these rises.
NZX50 TURNS DOWN SHARPLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.8% so far today. That puts it down -1.2% over the past five working days. It is up +4.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +3.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -5.0% so far today. Skellerup, Sky TV, Property for Industry, and Goodman lead today's gains but are offset by the heavy declines from Gentrack, F&P Healthcare, SkyCity casino, and Kathmandu
MORE BANK BOND ISSUANCE
Rabobank NZ has launched two $100 mln bond issues, one a three year floating rate Note, the other a five year fixed rate bond, together raising $200 mln. They are only offered via wholesale channels. Although both are in NZD, they are part of the bank's A$ Debt Issuance Program, and are issued under NSW law. Update: They took oversubscriptions, and ended up with $750 mln raised.
HOUSE PRICE DEFLATION
Today, China reported that that price deflation in their housing market picked up in January for a third straight month at a faster pace, overall down -3.1% from a year ago. In January, the year-on-year sales price of existing homes in first-tier cities fell by -7.6%. Specifically, prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen falling by -8.7%, -6.8%, -8.3%, and 6.5% respectively. In second- and third-tier cities, the year-on-year sales prices of existing homes fell by -6.2% and -6.1%. Prices for new-built houses fell too, but only by -2.1%.
SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower today except perhaps for the 1 year. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate held at 2.49% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.75%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.78%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.22 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 4.51%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Thursday's rate up +3 bps at 4.52%. The UST 10yr yield is down -6 bps from yesterday, now just on 4.16%.
EQUITIES FALL EVERYWHERE
But the local equity market is sharply lower in Friday trade, down -1.8% so far. The ASX200 is down -1.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.8% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -1.4% today so far and Shanghai is unchanged. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down -1.6%, driven lower by tech stocks.
OIL RETREATS
American oil prices are down about -US$2 from yesterday at this time at just under US$63/bbl, and the international Brent price is now at US$67.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STALLS
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market and the price is holding at $40.25/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RETREATS
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen from this time yesterday, down -US$78/oz and now at US$4981/oz. Silver is down -US$6.50 at just over US$76.50/oz.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 85.2 AUc. Against the yen we are down -10 bps. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.7 and down -20 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN DIPS FURTHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$66,366 and down another -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has stayed moderate however at +/- 2.3%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
13 Comments
Dole payments up +4.3% in a year. Which government did we elect again?
The one committed to getting inflation under control.
Inflation was already on the way down well before National was elected. In fact you would almost argue they have caused inflation to increase if you look at this chart: https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/consumers-price-index-cpi (new government officially took office on 27 November 2023). 9 months after the election (perhaps when their policies started taking effect) the CPI trend changes direction upwards.
Your chart supports my comment.
Not really, inflation is outside the RBNZ target and trending up.
Only you could look at that chart and think that the current government got inflation under control.
Committed?
To addressing scarcity using tokens?
Fools
Which government indeed. In fact it’s now been two lots of them to consider . Labour took over in 2017 and nobody seemed more surprised and unprepared about that, than themselves. After a fine handling of the onset of the pandemic they were re-elected with an unprecedented outright majority and then proceeded to plunder and disseminate the public purse, quite wilfully. National announces its arrival in 2023 with inexplicable tampering with the tax structure the only outcome notable being of assisting the deficit. Labour is now submitting the prospect of a capital gains tax so watered down it simply angers the opponents, shortchanges the proponents and won’t realise any significance revenue for years . Yes indeed, which government.
To quote my FIL in 2023 justifying his Nat support, "we need to get more people into jobs"
Nevermind they had been campaigning on that 7% "cost savings" line
Stock price of real estate behemoth CBRE has plunged 17% this week. As bad as Covid and the GFC. Coming into earnings, CBRE was on an elevated forward P/E ratio. It's still on the mid‑30s trailing P/E, so any narrative shock (AI, macro, CRE cycle worries) has triggered multiple compression.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/office-real-estate-stocks-tumble-as-ai-…
Xero's stock price is being decimated. The stock is now -60% in past 12 months, despite revenue growing at 20% and EBITDA is up 21% (and the ASX 200 sitting near all-time highs). Same is happening with U.S. stocks like Salesforce.
The market has stopped caring about growth and started obsessing over AI disruption and SaaS seat compression. When a dominant, profitable leader like Xero trades like it’s going out of business, it’s a signal that the software rout is a global reset, not just a local dip.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/i8P2jvrM/?symbol=ASX%3AXRO
We are undertaking a prolonged period of revaluing everything.
Good luck guessing the winners.
"Trump revokes landmark ruling that greenhouse gases endanger public health"
So is this government.
They, like he, are reacting to a social demand for concentrated (low entropy) energy. So-called renewables don't do it.
But fossil is finite, so their continuance is a (criminal, in my opinion) waste of what remains of that resource-stock. We should be valuing it more than gold. Because will when it's gone.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.