Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank said today it will raise its 13 month rate to 3.85% and trim its 4 month rate to 3.00%, effective Friday. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BETTER THAN INFLATION GAINS
ANZ said its overall card spending was up marginally in January, up +4.1% compared to the same time last year. They say most sectors are showing gains.
STILL STRONG DEMAND
The latest NZGB bond tenders for the April 2029 maturity and the May 2035 maturity raised $450 mln from 82 bids worth $1.768 mln. Yields fell from equivalent auctions a week ago, but the April 2029 bond saw a rise from its last offer three months ago.
OVERWHELMING SUPPORT
Following today’s Special Meeting, Fonterra has said its farmer shareholders have approved the scheme of arrangement for the capital return that’s expected from the sale of its global Consumer and related businesses by 98.85% of the votes cast. Even Vlad would be jealous of that level.
TAKE A BREAK, DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
ASB NAMES NEW CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER
ASB has appointed Dan O’Neill its Chief Operating Officer effective March 18, assuming regulatory requirements such as Reserve Bank non-objection are secured. O’Neill joins ASB from ANZ Melbourne, where he's been General Manager of Customer Service Operations. He has also worked at Westpac, ASB's parent Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Halifax Bank of Scotland.
EMERGE UP & RUNNING WITH CONFIRMATION OF PAYEE
Fintech Emerge says it has "gone live" with the confirmation of payee service provided via the bank-owned GetVerified. Emerge says it's the first non-bank to do so, with confirmation of payee available across Emerge personal, sole trader, and business accounts. It's a move that will be welcomed by the Commerce Commission, which has previously bemoaned that banks had "cemented control" of GetVerified, when confirmation of payee is "a utility service that should be available to all users in a timely manner."
NZX50 TURNS BACK UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.0% so far today and rising. But that still puts it down -1.2% over the past five working days. It is up +3,4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +2.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.9% so far today. Chorus, Skellerup, Fletcher and Auckland Airport are among the top performers.But a2 Milk, Tourism Holdings, SkyCity casino and Hallensteins have fallen.
BIG CAPITAL RAISE
To build out its renewable energy capacity, Contact is raising capital. It wants to raise $525 mln of new equity through a $450 mln underwritten placement and up to $75 mln (with the ability to accept additional applications at Contact’s discretion) through a retail offer.
LOWER PREMIUN INCOME, HIGHER PROFITS
Suncorp said its New Zealand insurance business (Vero and AA Insurance) raised its first half profits by $2.5% to $290 mln. It diod this despoite groosx wsritten premiums falling -5.6^.
INFLATION OR JOBS? A HAWKISH SHIFT
The minutes of the last US Fed meeting on January 29 were released today, revealing considerably varying viewpoints in this key group. The tension between the need to contain inflation and the desire to support the labour market are clear. Several participants indicated that further reductions in the fed funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation continues to decline in line with their expectations. Others argued that it may be prudent to hold the policy rate steady for some time. And some even raised the possibility that rate increases could become necessary if inflation remains persistently above target. A majority judged that downside risks to employment had moderated in recent months while the risk of more persistent inflation remained elevated.
ORDER SURGE
Japanese machinery orders surged in December, up at a remarkable +19.1% rate in December (excluding volatile big-ticket items which showed even stronger gains). They are forecasting January-March orders to rise another +6.2%.
RECORD EMPLOYMENT
In Australia, their January labour market data was released today. Payrolls grew by +17,800. Within that, full-time employment rose by +50,500 people, offset by a fall of -32,7000 part-time jobs. That takes their employed workforce to a record 14.7 mln. Better, they revised their December jobs gain up. Their jobless rate stayed at 4.1%, a seven month low. A strong labour market, and rising inflation raises the chance of another RBA rate hike.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today after yesterday's O\post-OCR retreat. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.77%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.14 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate has stayed down, up a minor +1 bp from yesterday at 4.41%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Wednesday's rate down -6 bps at 4.36%. The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 4.06%.
EQUITIES POSITIVE
The local equity market has risen again in Thursday trade, up +1.0% so far. The ASX200 is up also +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up another +0.7% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.5%but Shanghai is still closed for the CNY holiday. Singapore is up +0.9%. Wall Street is up +0.6% in its Wednesday trade on tech recoveries.
OIL RISES
American oil prices are up on Mid-East tensions, up +US$3 at just under US$65.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is on US$70.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
There have been very few trades again today on the secondary market wsl at $43/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold has risen from this time yesterday, up +US$69/oz and now at US$4972/oz. Silver is up +US$1.50 at just under US$77.50/oz.
NZD WEAKER
The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 59.7 USc in its post OCR adjustment. Against the Aussie we are down -70 bps at 84.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bos at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.2 and down -40 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN EASES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$66,184 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has stayed modest however at +/- 1.8%.
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2 Comments
Publicly listed and one of world's largest alternative asset managers Blue Owl has permanently halted redemptions at fund aimed at retail investors. This is not good and a potentially contagious stress test for the retail segment of private credit. It had previously mentioned about "Aussie expansion" but exposure unclear.
Liquidity risks in the $3T private credit market are a big deal.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blue-owl-capital-owl-down-161015715.html
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-credit-investors-are-cash…
Now that the doors are locked
Someone yell FIRE

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