Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Update: Westpac has cut home loan rates, more soon. More here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
FONTERRA LIFTS PAYOUT FORECAST
Better product returns has seen Fonterra raise its current season payout forecast. Plus it will payout the Mainland earnings in a special dividend, additional to the capital return from the Lactalis transaction
MORE EXPORTS, MANY MORE IMPORTS
January exports were up +2.6% while imports rose +1.6%, resulting in a January merchandise trade deficit of -$519 mln. That was lower than the -$549 mln in January 2025 and half the -$1.064 bln in January 2024. Exports to China were down -7%, to Australia up +20%, to the US unchanged, to the EU up +16% and to Japan up +11%. Imports from China were up +24%, from the EU up +5.6%, from Australia down -8.1%, from the US down -17%, and from South Korea up +36%. We haven't run a January trade surplus since 2016. They were common from 2009 to 2016.
PILING ON THE PRESSURE. CONSUMERS BEWARE
Political pressure from retailers is growing to give up on the surcharge ban that Minister for Commerce & Consumer Affairs Scott Simpson is driving. Retailers are threatening to raise prices for everyone. This is despite other countries successfully implementing an all-country ban (The EU, England, India, China, Vietnam, South Korea, The Philippines.) and none of who have higher prices because of it. But Coalition parties are vulnerable to business pressure and would rather consumers just pay up. Card surcharges are usually profit centers for many businesses who surcharge much more than the cost they claim their are 'recovering'. Minister Simpson said "The work is continuing, but it is important for us to consider the feedback received during select committee, and more broadly. This feedback is under consideration now, and we will have more to say on the next steps on this Bill in due course."
TAKE A BREAK, DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
BENDING UPWARDS
Ther BNZ/Seek monthly review of job ads shows the job ad recovery continues in early 2026. They report some signs of skills mismatching. Manufacturing job ads lif but less so in the services sector.
STILL WAY BELOW THRE PRE-PANDEMIC PEAK
Auckland Transport says in 2025, Aucklanders made 88.7 million trips on public transport, 70.2 mln on a bus, 13.6 mln on a train, and 4.3 mln on a ferry. Unfortunately basic ridership has flat-lined since September 2024, and is still -14% lower than the peak of 103.6 mln in the year to February 2020.
WELLINGTON FIXES SEWER PROBLEM
Some commonsense from Parliament Speaker Gerry Brownlee. He is shifting public discourse off sewer-and-bot-heaven 'X'/Twitter. The @NZParliament account announced today that it "will no longer be posting updates on X".
NZX50 TURNS BACK UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.9% so far today and staying down. But that still puts it up +1.0% over the past five working days. It is up +2.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +3.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.5% so far today. Auckland International Airport, Investore, Tower and Spark post strongest gains while EBOS, SkyCity casino, a2 Milk and Mercury are the big decliners.
CHANGE OR FACE THE BACKLASH
In China, the IMF has urged them to cut industrial subsidies and pivot quicker to consumption-led growth, warning its export-driven model is fueling global trade tensions and damaging others.
LESS INFLATION
Japanese inflation reduced to 1.5% in January from 2.1% in December, the lowest since March 2022. Food inflation fell to a 15-month low to 3.9% vs 5.1% in December, reduced by the slowest rise in rice prices in 18 months.
SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.49% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.75%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -4 bps at 2.10 bps today on the lower CPI data. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate has stayed down, down -2 bps from yesterday at 4.39%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Thursday's rate up +3 bps at 4.39%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from this time yesterday, now just on 4.07%.
EQUITIES NEGATIVE
The local equity market has retreated in Friday trade, down -0.9% so far. The ASX200 is down but only by -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.3% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.4% but Shanghai is still closed for the CNY holiday. Singapore is unchanged. Wall Street was down -0.3% in its Thursday trade.
OIL RISES AGAIN
American oil prices are up further on Mid-East tensions, up +US$1.50 at just under US$67/bbl, while the international Brent price is on US$72/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS AGAIN
There have been very few trades again today on the secondary market and now at $45/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold has risen from this time yesterday, up +US339/oz and now at US$5006/oz. Silver is up +US$1.00 at just under US$78.50/oz.
NZD DIPS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just under 59.6 USc in a further post OCR adjustment. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 84.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.1 and down -10 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN STOPS REASING
The bitcoin price is now at US$67,338 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has stayed modest however at +/- 1.2%.
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21 Comments
Happy Friday everyone
These people are near delusional
".......In China, the IMF has urged them to cut industrial subsidies and pivot quicker to consumption-led growth, warning its export-driven model is fueling global trade tensions and damaging others......"
I doubt the Chinese will change that. In fact it's their master plan. They won't bother to invade us, simple ownership of us works better
Mmm, there is a point there
They've burned half a trillion dollars subsidizing electric cars, that still don't turn a profit.
Still, not much different to tech companies buying customers at a loss to pump up their share values.
China will have invaded a lot easier territory before it gets the sth east end of nowhere in its sights. In the meantime that little target is clawing its way back up again on the back of primary production. Don’t let the Greens and their likeminded pals in Labour in on that though. They don’t need to be reminded of their incomplete work in knee capping that sector of New Zealand industry.
China just wants to be able to buy our diary and beef they do not want to invade........ and if they do , can you imagine the numbers required to hold rural NZ with gun ownership here?
sure cities but rural?
They kneecap themselves by dragging the chain on inevitable change
Nikkei looks possible to match or surpass Nasdaq on PE.
Recent data show the Nikkei 225 forward P/E around 23.4 in February 2026, with spot P/E near 20–21 [https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/data?list=per]. The Nasdaq 100 forward P/E is about 24.4 as of February 2026 [https://en.macromicro.me/series/23955/nasdaq-100-pe]
Consensus strategist polls for 2026 still anchor Nikkei fair‑value P/Es in the mid‑ to high‑teens (e.g., ~17.5), suggesting current multiples are already rich relative to local history but not priced to move far above Nasdaq on a sustained basis. But based on trend, Nikkei 225 is in the ascendency while Nasdaq is declining.
Pending U.S. home sales just reached their lowest level on record. That stretches back to 2001, way before the subprime apocalypse.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-0-…
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pend…
Most of everyone is sitting on sub 3% mortgages so who'd want to move.
Trump says he's directing the Pentagon to release files related to UFOs and aliens
Probably the only thing that might surpass the Epstein files, depending on what's in it.
Although I'm not convinced aliens would be a govt secret. We'd all likely know.
UFOs and aliens are two things not related at all, but too often conflated due to pop culture crossover. No surprise that Trump doesn't know the difference.
Perhaps when there is irrefutable evidence, clear and present of each, then the comparison between the the two, let’s say arms, can be established?
A UFO is a UFO, it's in the name.
The official/military definition and identification of a UFO is not the same as what the general public imagines.
The jump to linking a "sighting" to alien life is a huuuge one, largely guided by what movies you have seen.
The most likely thing to be discovered is that the "unidentified" part is only true for the person reporting that isn't privy to the classified info of whatever secret aircraft they've seen - or thinks they've seen.
..and whatever movie-influenced anthropomorphic aliens we oft imagine could visit, are not obliged to check in with the pentagon before visiting. We would all know.
Well, aliens would travel on a UFO, but yeah a UFO is just what it stands for, unidentified.
I blame the X Files.
I'd assume a species capable of travelling here, would be able to observe us fairly well without even arriving.
There's a pretty decent case for us to be the aliens, and the matter that allowed for life on earth to have arrived through the atmosphere.
Just as we're the original AI.
Or perhaps their technology is tapped out with interstellar travel and observation is a step too far. Or maybe something else completely.
Suggesting were aliens is akin to saying I’m an immigrant when I’m 6 generations deep.
You're native but not endemic.
I'm not saying homo sapiens are aliens but our very distant ancestors may have been. Or even just their building blocks - but all the information that drives our evolution how it does could be extra terrestrial.
It's a likely unknowable.
Would they? Realistically a space rock most likely
More likely than an interstellar travel capable species for sure.
Sometimes the most likely possiblity is the most boring.
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