Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
UnityMoney raised its 2 year 'special' today to 4.89%. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
UnityMoney also raised its TD rates for all terms 6 months & longer, but cut shorter rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
PROTECTING CASH AVAILABILITY
The Reserve Bank has opened public consultation on a proposal that would require banks to provide a minimum level of cash services, including withdrawal, deposits and cash exchanging at a cost potentially of about $104 million a year
DAIRY PRICES FIRM
The overnight dairy Pulse auction did not bring the gains the derivatives market pricing suggested, but they held or bettered the new higher levels of the prior week's full auction. The small push higher for SMP means it is now at its highest since December 2022.
TAKE A BREAK, DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
LESS CAPACITY
The sale of NZ$250 mln of foreign currencies in January, and the rising NZD (falling USD), has taken $1 bln out of the RBNZ's currency intervention capacity. It is now down to $26.4 bln from $27.6 bln in December (which was the record high).
NO RECOVERY YET
Regular readers will know that we track commercial lease listing levels. Demand for commercial premises remains modest nationally, although there are some encouraging pockets, mostly in the South Island. But overall, this leading indicator is not signaling an economic recovery.
NZX50 UP MARGINALLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far today. But that still puts it up +2.3% over the past five working days. It is now up +3.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +10.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2% so far today. Property for Industry, Gentrack, Tower and SkyCity casino rise as Serko, Ryman, Channel Infrastructure and Vulcan are the main decliners.
STAYING ELEVATED
In Australia, their CPI inflation came in at 3.8% in January, unchanged from the December rate, but higher than the expected 3.7% dip. The largest contributor was housing related costs, up +6.8%, up from +5.5% in December. This was due to cost rises for electricity, new dwellings, and rents.. This was followed by food, up +3.1%. Recreation costs rose +3.7%. No sign of inflation easing here, and that will attract financial market speculation about the RBA's next rate review.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed to marginally firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.49% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.72%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +11 bp at 2.10% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.40%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate down -1 bp at 4.35%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from yesterday, now just on 4.04%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The local equity market has flat-lined in Wednesday trade. However, the ASX200 is up +1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.4% and Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore is down -0.2%. Wall Street was up +0.8% on the S&P500 at the end of its Tuesday trade, not quite recovering Monday's fall.
OIL DIPS SLIGHTLY
American oil prices are back down -50 USc at just over US$66/bbl, while the international Brent price is over US$71/bbl.
CARBON PRICE RISES
There have been more trades but small ones today on the secondary market, but the price has pushed up to $47/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold has risen slightly from this time yesterday, up +US9/oz and now at US$5180/oz. Silver is up almost +US$3 at just under US$89/oz.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 84.3 AUc. Against the euro we up +10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.2 and up +10 bps from this morning.
BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$65,975 and up +2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.6%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
48 Comments
PROTECTING CASH AVAILABILITY
The Reserve Bank has opened public consultation on a proposal that would require banks to provide a minimum level of cash services, including withdrawal, deposits and cash exchanging at a cost potentially of about $104 million a year
Let's say blahblah AUSSIE bank is 38% of retail therefore it would cost them .38*$104mil = $39.52 mil and BlahBlah Aussie banks last profit was.... $2.58 BILLION
So that's a 1.53 % hit to profitability to keep license and provide a service that most NZers expect from the AUSSIE bank.
It's hard to shed a tear when they have until recently been banks that hold cash for the people who put their cash into said AUSSIE bank. Now to be clear i am not picking on that AUSSIE bank they are all trying to tell us that cash is just too hard for them, I suggest the RBNZ "Consultation" is going to be somewhat one sided.
Whatever happens you can be sure your standing fee for holding an account will be modified to cover whatever is demanded, thus the clients will pay no matter the outcome.
More likely a 1.5% cost increase for the users of the bank. Why not put the cost onto the cash withdrawals?
No.
Feel free to start your own free bank. Otherwise nothing in life is free, if it isn’t the user that pays then someone else pays.
You’re placing bank profits ahead of access to cash?
I remember paying to use ATMs at one stage, doesn’t seem that unreasonable when we pay to use paywave.
You could make that argument about anything- supermarket profits ahead of free food, power company profits ahead of free power, brewery profits ahead of free beer, etc. Normally you have to pay for a good or service, even if that service is administering cash.
Cash is a service?
If we’re all forced to use banks, and let’s face it we pretty much are, then they can provide free access to cash. Access to cash is not the same as access to bread.
Banks may hold this privileged position in our society, but through our collective wisdom they are allowed to operate as private businesses and as such are in it for a profit.
The bigger problem is not withdrawals but rather businesses making cash deposits. If (small/med) businesses cannot easily deposit takings then they will not accept or provide a cash service.
Banks charge for every contactless transaction.... cash is free...
many bakeries charge 2% paywave fee... why should banks push us into a world where we pay 15% gst plus 2% to them every transaction?
.
You miss the point
sort of, but if they charge small business 2% to deposit cash etc they are now a 2% on many transactions tax, this is not fair and just
to the little guy.
'If 'they charge that levy...the RBNZ have the ability to ensure they do not.
It is worth considering that electronic transfers are also charged for by various methods, some directly and others indirectly.
understand apple visa etc etc all trying to freeload....
AUD / NZD mid market rate 1.19
NZD / AUD mid market rate 0.84
Might encourage a change in people's direction of travel
Yes, they are bidders in Queenstown and Wanaka property market at the moment as well. QTown becoming the South Pacific - Colorado
That and the new 5mil and above sell to anyone ruling, Q airport handles private jets well I assume.
QTown becoming the South Pacific - Colorado
Without the deep powder and extensive back country access.
Aspen / Vail are also dire for those people / workers who make the places work.
https://www.businessinsider.com/vail-colorado-affordable-housing-employ…
They don't have Fergs
Over-rated
The bakery across the road does a pie and coffee for almost the same price as a fergs bakery coffee...
Norm this is the bargain of QTown
https://www.atlasbeercafe.com/
Chunky fries, house salad, demi-glace and cafe de Paris butter.$28.50
BUT you have to explain what rare means , 3 visits over 3 nights and its finally mooing on the plate!!!!!
washed down with a few - Bookbinder New World Ales
That's the way IT, sounds like my kind of trip.
I prefer Wanaka, avoid QT at all costs. Happy hour at Speights Alehouse, $8 pints. Just ending a month in my Caravan there, living the dream, plus some remote work, but what an office view. Good fly fishing around here too, a bit of a drive to get there, but great country.
Trump is currently giving the State of the Union address to Congress. So far, he has surpassed his 1hr 39m 2025 record as the longest address.
His speech, which seems simply a rally address much of which if not lies, then at best can be considered stretching of the truth, will appeal strongly to his Republican and MAGA base. The reaction from the Republican members suggests that unfortunately the midterm elections widely considered will give the Democrats control of Congress is not a certainty.
Much like hippys state of the nation, but he will not win anything.
Nobody's ever seen such a long, beautiful speech they said
Meanwhile in that lucky country
EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy said persistence in inflation pressures, alongside ongoing tightness in the labour market, meant the RBA “has its work cut out to get inflation back within the target band”.
“We remain of the view that the central bank will need to raise the cash rate further, most likely in the first half of this year, with further rate hikes possible given persistent inflation pressures,” said Murphy.
Money markets imply a 76 per cent chance of a rate rise in May and are fully priced for a move in June.
I hope RBNZ have this attitude
RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser said private demand was “not punching the lights out”, but refused to comment on how the high level of government spending was crowding it out, in an interview on Tuesday with The Guardian.
“We take account of spending in the economy wherever it comes from ... A dollar of demand that comes from the public sector, a dollar of demand that comes from the private sector – if it contributes to inflation, we have to react.”
In hindsight Orr screwed up so badly on this point
We should have an AI news post pinned to the top on Interest.co.nz , its likely to becoming a rolling disaster story
Probably nothing....
And so WiseTech plans to slash up to 50 per cent of staff in its product development team in customer service, where it will deploy AI to try to reset its cost base.
WiseTech estimates that about 2000 workers will leave the business, starting in the 2026 financial year and continuing into 2027.
In the short term, the costs associated with those job cuts (redundancy and restructuring expenses) will offset the cost savings. But WiseTech is promising that beyond that, the cost structure of the company will be radically different, although there was little detail on Wednesday.
The detonation of the first real AI jobs bomb in Australia should send shock waves through the broader community and financial markets.
While WiseTech is arguably a unique business, given its high level of spending on software development, this is evidence that some of those doomsday scenarios we’ve been hearing could be plausible.
And recognized as a leader in logistics‑execution software - the CargoWise platform licensed in 190+ countries. More than 17,000 logistics organisations use its software, including 24 of the top 25 global freight forwarders and 47 of the top 50 global third‑party logistics providers.
In MORE Probably Nothing news....
Hint this is banking speak over recent years
- First you have to be agile. (your team is now a tribe and a squad and we need 10% less of you due to the new efficiency)
- Second you have to have a growth mindset. (Howard is a nice guy , you went to his kids weddings, but you have to be open to new things, Sandeep in Bangalore can do the same job, even if its a different time zone and he is only 21 and an intern , he is cheaper, We need 10% less of you due to the new efficiency)
- Third you now have to be able to "harness AI" for productivity gains, be an AI native and embrace it, guess what We need 10% less of you due to the new efficiency
At each iteration , traditionally 10% staff cuts, been there done that, have a lot of T-shirts, this time its going to be a lot more then 10%. CBA needs there current workers to stay until they can be replaced by AI, current workers have no other place to jump to. CBA is saying to there own workers, get good at AI or you will be gone. its you or Howard.
Don't expect great morale scores this year.
CBA sets out plan to retrain workers in AI age and as job cuts loom
CBA will shift thousands of workers into higher-value roles, increasing training around the skills needed for banking jobs of the future. Staff will require greater expertise, judgement, critical thinking and empathy, and CBA will be explicit on how AI can be used in individual roles. The aim is to lift productivity, while helping inoculate staff from job disruption as AI models get more powerful, allowing them to automate more tasks.
“I expect everyone’s individual productivity is going to increase over the course of this year, and each future year,” Comyn said. “Australia has to get really good at adopting this technology – and whatever else follows it – because we will not maintain global competitiveness [if we don’t].”
The redundancies at CBA have not been specifically linked to AI. This contrasts with last year, when it pointed to an AI chatbot when it made 45 roles redundant, only to be forced to backflip when the Finance Sector Union launched a challenge in the Fair Work Commission.
But with AI WseTech itself is toast is it not?
if you have seen logistics go wrong... I do not think so, but they may have to adjust their pricing to new entrants, perhaps AI will let them add client feature requests fast and lower their operational costs, sure it WILL depress revenues, but doubt that 2 coders in a bedroom +AI are going to go out and win their clients quickly, at the end of the day human relationships and quality of service does count even in the AI age...
Their is no doubt that revenues will be impacted.
look at their valuation relative to PE, most software companies where like 80
enough said its a timely time to re access valuations
But if AI is that good then surely all you need is 1 AI geek per company and then all traditional software companies are obsolete.
They say they can save 50%, but the proof will be in the pudding. There is a lot of hype out there.
Also, Pentagon trying to force Anthropic to let them use their AI for domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons.
German dentists put €2.2B of retirement savings into private credit, unlisted companies, and real estate.
Half of it is gone.
Investments included a California plastic recycler, a German shrimp farm, and a Berlin insurance startup. The fund has lost roughly half its assets after highly concentrated, illiquid bets in private markets went bad, and it’s now dragging wider scrutiny onto Germany’s €300 billion “Versorgungswerke” occupational pension sector.
It's always the dentists.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-23/germany-pension-fund…
Meanwhile I suspect many Israelite dentists put their savings into physical Gold.
I suggest many kiwi savers could see considerable falls over the next 36 months, and many who did not see AI coming will ask what happened.
Actually Fritz, I know I said it was small filling, but I now recommend a full crown (half joking but this did happen to me in NZ recently and when I changed dentist the new one couldn't see any clinical reason for the additional work)
Trigger warning : its a joke, I have nothing against dentists from Germany, Isreali or from Bangalore and called Sandeep
I think I need to replace that gold filling with something safer.....
maybe we do an insert
China has never held so much gold - their gold reserves surged +15.7% MoM in January, to a record $369.6 billion. This is the 8th consecutive monthly increase.
Since October 2022, China’s gold reserves have risen +$266.9 billion, or +260% - total gold holdings rose to a record 2,308 tonnes last month.
The People's Bank of China has now acquired gold for 15 consecutive months. The gold rush is unprecedented.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-central-bank-buys-gold-15th-…
The recent somewhat flash crash probably flushed out a lot of leveraged paper long accounts
beep beep beep - smart money backing up the truck to load up on the dip
be aware that there are gold spruikers just like nz shitbox spruikers
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2026-02-24/gold-revaluation-alert-us-buy…
past 200 years performance of gold relative to fiat is no guarantee of future results, ROFL
Tony Alexander: 16 reasons why it’s all over for mum-and-dad property investors https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-16-reasons-mum-and-dad-in…
Was just going to post that 🥂
The comb has finally had the come to god moment, now WGTN is down 30% Auckland 20%,
- Its just a dip
- its a really big dip
- Great buying opportunity
- Structural change
Not sure how it took you so long tony but the Church of Doom welcomes all with open arms. A reformed Spruiker who has found the light. We are well on the way to the final stage of grief, acceptance. Did I mention the ARM setup in the NZ market right now? maybe we need to linger in depression a bit longer
Note. Few people any longer talk about “rentvesting” for young people looking to gain a housing foothold. Also, promoters of property investments are failing to attract numbers to their seminars that they hoped for. A weeding out of the inferiors in this investment-promotion sector has been happening for a while and more is to come
House prices falling again Just when it looked like a small recovery in average house prices around the country was underway, data released over the past five weeks covering December and January show otherwise. On average in January the REINZ’s House Price Index for all of the country declined by 0.6% after falling 0.7% in December. Prices sit 0.7% lower than a year ago.
He gives himself an out in the last para:
"Providing this required accommodation will increasingly fall to professional property investors rather than average Kiwis."
Property class will be fine if they're "professional" about it I guess
be quick
I suspect he may be thinking of Nationals proposed corporate build to rent schemes who have a better tax angle then little guys.
or
Many investors with professionalism, skills, and large portfolios will definitely remain. But the feelings of FOMO, which drove so many less sophisticated people to buy whatever they could get their hands on, have gone.
he is saying that you have to be very patient , buy at great yields and walk away if it is not profitable, in all likely hood the professionals will buy off the late to the party FOMO numpties, and at some decent markdowns on what said numpties paid, this will continue to add to the 17% of AKL properties selling at a loss.
those 1.6 million zones Auckland homes are shit boxes and apartments all the way down, maybe for FHBers but nothing in them for investors
sell inner city and buy lifestyle !
Translation: you're gonna have to earn it from herein
Great to see ring-fencing recognised as an underrated player here in the trend. An often overlooked change that overshadowed by it's more controversial partner interest deductability, that caught the ire, and campaign agenda of the current mob.
"Rule changes have favoured tenants" is a BS one though.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.