A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; mood turns dark over Iran mess, local data weak & confusing, NZGB yields jump; renewables record high, swaps rise, oil jumps, equities retreat, NZD lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

UNSTITCHING
With the Iran turmoil getting messier by the day, inflation pressures rising, and the America First strategy being shown up as completely vacuous, investors globally are pushing up risk premiums faster than ever. Details below. But the result is the financial world is in a net loser situation, which will spray out into the real world soon enough. Rising "risk free" instruments mean that commercial paper is about to become much more expensive.

NOT FLASH I
Stats NZ released data today that claims Q4-2025 volume of manufacturing output fell -0.5% and the value fell -$218 mln from Q3 after accounting for seasonal effects. And year-on-year volumes are down -0.4% while values are up +4.4%. Their data shows "meat & dairy" as driving the declines. But other data for these sectors undermine these negative trends. For example, milk production is up as are dairy prices. If the StatsNZ data is what flows into Q4-2025 GDP (and it probably will), then we are likely to get a weaker GDP result than markets expect.

NOT FLASH II
Other business data for Q4 was released today, for wholesale and some selected services sectors. Construction was even weaker than the manufacturing data on a year-on-year basis. Wholesale trade weaker on a per quarter basis. Perhaps we should brace ourselves for another dour GDP result next Thursday.

NOT FLASH III
And we need to report that the payroll data for Q4-2025 isn't especially positive either. Seasonally adjusted filled jobs were flat (up just +946 jobs nationally), and from a year ago total gross earnings were up just +1.4% or +$2.4 bln.

EASIER TO MOVE ON UP
Getting on to the second rung of the property ladder should be well within reach for existing first home owners after 10 years, according to the latest interest.co.nz research. Moving up the property ladder should be achievable for most first home buyers.

TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

COMCOM WARNS OF BIG PYRAMID SCHEME
The Commerce Commission is investigating a potential pyramid scheme operating in various communities nationally and warning consumers to be wary of money-making opportunities that are “too good to be true”. The Hawke’s Bay-based scheme involves several social media groups and promotes a business opportunity involving health supplements platform LiveGood. Marketing occurs through Facebook, Instragram and TikTok and, when joined, participants are added to groups including Freedom Lifestyle Revolution, The Official Diamond Rush, and other New Zealand-based Facebook groups linked to this scheme. ComCom says the scheme, which promotes an ‘affiliate compensation plan’, carries the hallmarks of a pyramid scheme – scams designed so individuals primarily make money through the continuous recruitment of others, rather than through the sale of genuine products or services.

NZX50 DECLINES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.9% so far today. That leaves it down -3.2% over the past five working days, and down -0.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.7% so far today. Vista Group, Goodman Property, Mainfreight and Turners lead the few advancers while Gentrack, SkyCity casino, Summerset and Meridian drag it lower.

HIGHER NZGB YIELDS
Today's NZGB tenders for three maturities attracted 99 bids with 32 successful for the $450 mln available. More than $1.8 bln was bid. Of note is that from one or two weeks ago is the rise in yields, The May 2031 maturity rose from 3.89% to 4.11% in one week. The May 2034 maturity rose from 4.16% to 4.46% in two weeks. That is a lot.

GREEN RECORD
MBIE is reporting that in Q4 2025, there was a record high of 96.4% of electricity generation coming from renewable sources. Favourable hydro conditions and continued growth in utility‑scale solar were key contributors, sharply reducing reliance on natural gas and driving emissions from electricity generation to their lowest level on record.

STILL RISING
In Australia, inflation expectations ticked up further in the March Melbourne Institute survey, up to 5.2% for the year ahead. While this is 'only' a rise from the 5.0% rate in February, it is the highest looking-ahead level this survey has reported since January 2023, and is a significant rise from the 3.6% rate in March 2025. It only adds fuel to the expectations the RBA will hike next week at its review on March 17. Aussie equities fell, benchmark AGB yields rose further, and they were rising even before this news broke.

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SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be higher today as the general tone turns dark. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps from this time yesterday at 4.94%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.18% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.66%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate unchanged at 4.57%. The UST 10yr yield is up +9 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.23%.

EQUITIES RETREAT
The local equity market has fallen -0.8% in Thursday trade, and so far. The ASX200 is down -1.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday down -0.6% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is also down -0.6% and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street in its Wednesday trade for the S&P500 was down -0.1%.

OIL SURGES
American oil prices have risen sharply with the WTI benchmark up +US$11 +US$9.50, now at just over US$94.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$100.50/bbl. There are still no ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz. And all this is despite the international effort to release some strategic oil reserves. Traders give that no chance of quieting the situation.

CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
There have been just a few small trades so far today on the secondary market, and the price is unchanged at $44/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFT
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen from this time yesterday, down -US$47/oz and now back at US$5165/oz. Silver is down -US$2.50 to US$85.50/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just under 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.6 and down -20 bps from where we were this time yesterday.

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$69,831 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate, at +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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