Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
UNSTITCHING
With the Iran turmoil getting messier by the day, inflation pressures rising, and the America First strategy being shown up as completely vacuous, investors globally are pushing up risk premiums faster than ever. Details below. But the result is the financial world is in a net loser situation, which will spray out into the real world soon enough. Rising "risk free" instruments mean that commercial paper is about to become much more expensive.
NOT FLASH I
Stats NZ released data today that claims Q4-2025 volume of manufacturing output fell -0.5% and the value fell -$218 mln from Q3 after accounting for seasonal effects. And year-on-year volumes are down -0.4% while values are up +4.4%. Their data shows "meat & dairy" as driving the declines. But other data for these sectors undermine these negative trends. For example, milk production is up as are dairy prices. If the StatsNZ data is what flows into Q4-2025 GDP (and it probably will), then we are likely to get a weaker GDP result than markets expect.
NOT FLASH II
Other business data for Q4 was released today, for wholesale and some selected services sectors. Construction was even weaker than the manufacturing data on a year-on-year basis. Wholesale trade weaker on a per quarter basis. Perhaps we should brace ourselves for another dour GDP result next Thursday.
NOT FLASH III
And we need to report that the payroll data for Q4-2025 isn't especially positive either. Seasonally adjusted filled jobs were flat (up just +946 jobs nationally), and from a year ago total gross earnings were up just +1.4% or +$2.4 bln.
EASIER TO MOVE ON UP
Getting on to the second rung of the property ladder should be well within reach for existing first home owners after 10 years, according to the latest interest.co.nz research. Moving up the property ladder should be achievable for most first home buyers.
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
COMCOM WARNS OF BIG PYRAMID SCHEME
The Commerce Commission is investigating a potential pyramid scheme operating in various communities nationally and warning consumers to be wary of money-making opportunities that are “too good to be true”. The Hawke’s Bay-based scheme involves several social media groups and promotes a business opportunity involving health supplements platform LiveGood. Marketing occurs through Facebook, Instragram and TikTok and, when joined, participants are added to groups including Freedom Lifestyle Revolution, The Official Diamond Rush, and other New Zealand-based Facebook groups linked to this scheme. ComCom says the scheme, which promotes an ‘affiliate compensation plan’, carries the hallmarks of a pyramid scheme – scams designed so individuals primarily make money through the continuous recruitment of others, rather than through the sale of genuine products or services.
NZX50 DECLINES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.9% so far today. That leaves it down -3.2% over the past five working days, and down -0.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.7% so far today. Vista Group, Goodman Property, Mainfreight and Turners lead the few advancers while Gentrack, SkyCity casino, Summerset and Meridian drag it lower.
HIGHER NZGB YIELDS
Today's NZGB tenders for three maturities attracted 99 bids with 32 successful for the $450 mln available. More than $1.8 bln was bid. Of note is that from one or two weeks ago is the rise in yields, The May 2031 maturity rose from 3.89% to 4.11% in one week. The May 2034 maturity rose from 4.16% to 4.46% in two weeks. That is a lot.
GREEN RECORD
MBIE is reporting that in Q4 2025, there was a record high of 96.4% of electricity generation coming from renewable sources. Favourable hydro conditions and continued growth in utility‑scale solar were key contributors, sharply reducing reliance on natural gas and driving emissions from electricity generation to their lowest level on record.
STILL RISING
In Australia, inflation expectations ticked up further in the March Melbourne Institute survey, up to 5.2% for the year ahead. While this is 'only' a rise from the 5.0% rate in February, it is the highest looking-ahead level this survey has reported since January 2023, and is a significant rise from the 3.6% rate in March 2025. It only adds fuel to the expectations the RBA will hike next week at its review on March 17. Aussie equities fell, benchmark AGB yields rose further, and they were rising even before this news broke.
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SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be higher today as the general tone turns dark. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps from this time yesterday at 4.94%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.18% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.66%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate unchanged at 4.57%. The UST 10yr yield is up +9 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.23%.
EQUITIES RETREAT
The local equity market has fallen -0.8% in Thursday trade, and so far. The ASX200 is down -1.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday down -0.6% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is also down -0.6% and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street in its Wednesday trade for the S&P500 was down -0.1%.
OIL SURGES
American oil prices have risen sharply with the WTI benchmark up +US$11 +US$9.50, now at just over US$94.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$100.50/bbl. There are still no ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz. And all this is despite the international effort to release some strategic oil reserves. Traders give that no chance of quieting the situation.
CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
There have been just a few small trades so far today on the secondary market, and the price is unchanged at $44/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFT
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen from this time yesterday, down -US$47/oz and now back at US$5165/oz. Silver is down -US$2.50 to US$85.50/oz.
NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just under 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.6 and down -20 bps from where we were this time yesterday.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$69,831 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate, at +/- 1.6%.
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44 Comments
Y'day Mastercard launched its "Crypto Partner Program" - a new global initiative that connects crypto-native firms, banks, and payment providers to Mastercard’s network so on‑chain payments can run over existing card and banking rails.
Mastercard is trying to make crypto “plumbing” sit behind the scenes of normal payments, rather than build a separate consumer network.Essentially, they want to bridge blockchain payments, programmable money, stablecoins, and tokenized assets with Mastercard’s global card network and merchant locations, so users can pay as usual while settlement can occur on‑chain.
They want a piece of the pie. That's all.
https://www.mastercard.com/us/en/news-and-trends/stories/2026/mastercar…
They want a piece of the pie. That's all.
In order for crypto to be mass adopted, it ironically needs some sort of centralization to streamline it.
Sorta like how Netflix took online video from a niche area for pirates to mass consumption.
We'll likely get something from the government for public use in the ashes of an upcoming mishap.
Times are changing P. Gen Z and under‑40s are driving adoption of digital wallets, BNPL and alternative payment methods and are moving away from traditional credit card–centric behavior, even if they may use cards as a rail.
Revolut is an example of how things are changing. Revolut can already use blockchain rails for parts of its stack, and it is moving further in that direction, even though it still primarily relies on traditional card networks and internal ledgers for most consumer activity. Revolut offers a “crypto card” that lets users fund card spend with crypto or stablecoins, with the crypto leg handled via its crypto infrastructure and the merchant leg on Visa/Mastercard rails.
The boomer ruling elite will fold under pressure eventually and the kids will determine how they spend and transfer. Technically, Revolut can route more payment legs over blockchains: stablecoin remittances, merchant settlement in stablecoins, and crypto‑funded card payments all show this direction of travel.
I've never seen the appeal. What is the problem that this is a solution to?
It solves the problem of needing trusted gatekeepers to move value, especially across borders and between strangers. It replaces “ask a bank or platform for approval” with “follow protocol rules and it just settles.”
But using money is pretty cheap and easy. And ubiquitous.
How you choose to store your excess is up to you. Chasing moonshot returns, from the sounds of it.
Nobody is forcing you to use anything but fiat P.
You're trying to sell me a better alternative.
So far the value proposition isn't very valuable.
Working out the system is poopie is the easy part.
Not selling you anything P. Mastercard is trying to connect with a market segment for its mkt growth and long-term survival.
You're a 24hr infomercial.
Apparently having a gatekeeper for money exchange is a problem. How's it a problem for me, and the average person? What is this problem costing us? What are the costs of the solution?
Otherwise this sounds like snakeoil for a made up ailment.
Apparently having a gatekeeper for money exchange is a problem. How's it a problem for me, and the average person? What is this problem costing us? What are the costs of the solution?
What might not be of any use to you doesn't mean it's necessarily not of use to others. Therefore, it shouldn't affect you nor should it be of any cost to you.
As of costs to Mastercard, they're not building new infrastructure so no fees is passed to you in any way as a cardholder or a shareholder.
Core benefits outweigh costs. And the core benefit is optionality: relatively low incremental capex for Mastercard, in exchange for owning the standardized bridge layer of on‑chain payments and capturing upside if stablecoin‑ and token‑based settlement move into the financial mainstream.
I'm not really sure why you would any grievances towards this.
What might not be of any use to you doesn't mean it's necessarily not of use to others
That's right.
So sell me the size of this addressable market. I.e., how big is this problem we can resolve.
If it's super super niche, not really much of a problem.
Six US troops killed in Iran war brought home in dignified transfer - CNN
More occult symbolism...
6 US troops have been brought home on the 66th day of the year, March 7, 2026. This was a Saturday, also named Saturn’s Day, named after the sixth planet.
Hahaha
Possibly was dignified except the dip@#$ in the stupid white cap.
Keeping it in the family..
2nd August was JD Vance’s 41st birthday. It fell on the 666th day of the war between Isreal & Hamas. It also fell on Tisha B’Av, to remember the destruction of two temples. That date, Tisha B’Av, is also connected to the prophecy of the Third Temple
On April 19, 2023, RFK Jr. gave speech at Park Plaza Hotel in Boston, launching his presidential campaign. 666 days later on February 13, 2025 he was confirmed as the 26th Secretary of Health
I got up at 6am
had 6 meetings at work today , its the 12th, 2 x 6
drank 6 beers tonight celebrating daughters birthday
Always loved the Omen movies.
He only turned up looking for his golf ball.
Watties closures
What the heck is going on with competitiveness of NZ grown/processed product - as in the Watties basket of canned and particularly frozen product?
If imported product can be marketed at lower price points than local product, what are the factors affecting that price on the shelf?
Last time I checked, NZ had the lowest level of producer subsidy equivalent support for farmers, in the OECD.
If the producers of the imported product are receiving significant subsidy equivalent support, then NZ needs to impose tariffs on those products so that the market in NZ is a pretty much level playing field.
Surely MPI, Treasury understand what is going on subsidy wise in countries exporting to NZ and the competitive disparity that results for NZ producers and could take action to secure NZ producers to what is essentially parasitic behaviour by importers.
Most of its made by cheaper labour.
Even the stuff from Europe.
That's an easy and, I suspect, misleading or plain wrong explanation.
Would you provide the information behind that conclusion please. For frozen corn, peas, beans for example.
Labour in this sector can be around 50% of the cost.
Agricultural labour costs a good 10x more than Sth America, most of Asia, and Africa.
It costs a few thousand dollars to ship a container globally.
"Even the stuff from Europe."
Funny that....perhaps you mean slave labour operating outside legal requirement.
Yup, millions of them.
Unsure if thats sarcasm, but if not millions may be overstating it...estimated 800 odd thousand in EU states.
There's a few hundred thousand in Italy alone. Many live in shanty towns, or even sleep outside.
How else would you get a tin of tomatoes for $1
We should write Europe a sternly worded letter.
We did..its called an FTA
That's an agreement
A sternly worded letter would be a formal dispute or some other form of mediation.
Did we do that? Will they react?
I've been there before. ~10yrs ago I worked through the closure of the NZ division of a multinational manufacturing business that had survived nearly a century.
The writing had been on the wall for ~15 yrs previously, since the advent of international connected broadband linked up complex global supply chains with lower cost suppliers & enabled transfer pricing profit shifting arrangements to low tax regimes (all approved by IRD at the time). Suddenly the global working world was in your laptop & businesses scrambled for competitive advantage. Closing say 20% of global factories in higher cost locations meant that 80% in lower cost locations could go 24/7.
It wasn't really a labour productivity issue, while our labour unit costs were higher than other suppliers our higher choice of technology kept us within reason. Our factory staff were well paid & we still paid penal & shift rates.
We did engage with MBIE once to see whether there could be any support; after an initial briefing we never heard back from them. A couple of politicians from left & right bleated patronising homilies on their thoughts & prayers.
We'd fought off several sourcing challenges & restructured significantly at least 3x. Ultimately we chose to close with dignity, we'd done our best & retained our respect for ourselves and each other. The other managers & I ensured that everyone who still wanted to work got another job however there was definitely a ripple effect across suppliers, distribution, engineering contractors etc
Ask no questions......
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2023/sep/14/how-the-italian-maf…
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"If the producers of the imported product are receiving significant subsidy equivalent support, then NZ needs to impose tariffs on those products so that the market in NZ is a pretty much level playing field."
I'm sure even if they knew product was subsidised, or doesn't meet NZ production standards, they'd just throw NZ production to the dogs, such is the belief in the purity of the market. At the end of the day, it's up to the NZ consumer to support local. If it all goes tits up, they won't mind starving.
A lot of global subsidies are below the tariff radar. I've visited western owned factories in free trade zones based in Asia that were gifted the land, enjoyed multi decade VAT holidays etc
The biggie is still transfer pricing profit shifting to low corporate & personal tax regimes. That's a key reason Singapore & Switzerland gain a lot of business. Under Trumps America first, the USA have walked away from the OECDs BEPS accords.
This is the ugly side of free trade agreements.
NZ is at risk of becoming a Xmas holiday destination for our rich expats.
PDK - what we are about to experience re oil shortages is what is coming ready or not as the world runs out, take lessons people. High intensity farming cannot survive this. Balance leaves as the gas stops.
High oil prices will help Private credit crisis... </sarc=off>
Seriously there is a massive mark to market about to happen, at the same time as an oil supply crisis.
What could possibly go wrong.
Private Credit's Margin Call Moment Arrives As Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater Gate Investors
"we think a "run on the bank" is inevitable and would recommend all investors to get out of levered private credit while they still can. This is the story of a $2.0+ trillion market on the precipice."
The big four banks are predicting the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates next week, just as the Australian dollar climbed to its highest level in four years and the oil price jumped back above $US100 barrel.
Commonwealth Bank and ANZ have joined National Australia Bank and Westpac in forecasting a rate rise next Tuesday to 4.1 per cent. The bond market has also ramped up its bets, and is pricing in a 72 per cent chance for a move next week, followed by another increase in May.
I wonder if those regional flight schedules will ever return to what they were previous. Sounds like a lot of those routes weren't making money anyway. They could keep them at once or twice a week, batch demand and increase ticket prices on more limited seats. And still probably tick the national interest box .
Never waste a good crisis. Business 101
Gisbourne to wellington? most Aussies would drive that before lunch...
I worked on a project outside Sydney for a year or so (commuting from Wgtn roughly 3-4weeks for a week at a time). The Oz lead engineer seconded to manage the site technical side lived outside Melbourne & used to commute driving 1 weekend a month to see family. He reckoned it was not far off flying + checkin + transfers time at ~8hrs although he had to slow down a bit for the last ~100ks to avoid the roos on the road at night.
Next GDP quarter release is set to disappoint.
Anyone surprised?
Expectations will be pretty low
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