Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has raised its rate card today. Details here. So has HBS and Unity Money. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has raised all its TD rates for 1-5 years, as did BNZ. So did Finance Direct and HBS. And we have reviewed where TD rates are at, at the moment, here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
GROWTH ONLY COMES FROM NON-PRIORITY AREAS
StatsNZ said GDP rose just +0.2% in the December 2025 quarter to be +1.3% higher than a year ago, way less than expected. Rental, hiring and real estate services were the largest contributors. There is no momentum in this 'recovery'.
VANISHING RETURNS
Residential property has become less attractive to investors as capital gains dry up. Low returns on falling rents and rising interest rates, and potential negative cash flows from tax treatments, are reducing the appeal.
COVID CROOK
A Tauranga man will serve 24 months’ imprisonment for tax and COVID related offending, with leave to apply for home detention. Vincent Reynolds was sentenced in the Tauranga District Court on March 17 on ten fraud/evasion charges. Reynolds used or attempted to use false GST and income tax returns, false documents, made false COVID relief claims and provided altered bank statements to get money he wasn’t entitled to. In total he applied for more than $131,800 but received $84,265. He spent all the money on himself.
BETTER THAN TDs
The 6 year CHFA bond we noted yesterday achieved a yield of 5.1% pa.
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 TURNS SHARPLY LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -2.0% so far today. It is heading for a -1.2% drop over the past five working days, and down -1.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +8.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -3.9% so far today. Gains from Turners, Vista, Investore Property and Genesis have been outweighed by sharp falls by Gentrack, F&P Healthcare, Kathmandu and Auckland Airport.
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COUNCILS & NZTA ON ALERT
Since the start of March, the international bitumen price has jumped +50%, just saying. The only time it was higher was for a few days in June 2022 in the midst of pandemic lockdowns. This rise isn't going to be for just a few days.
MARGINALLY WORSE
In Australia, their jobless rate rose to 4.3% in February, up from the 4.1% forecast and levels seen in the previous two months. This is back to the November level. Full time jobs rose fell -30,500 while part-time jobs rose +79,500. Their participation rate hit a four-month high of 66.9%. (As at December 2025, the NZ jobless rate was 5.4% and will be updated for Q1-2026 on May 6.)
SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be slightly higher today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bps at 2.52% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 4.99%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.26% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.72%, up +5 bps from this time Wednesday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -8 bps at 4.60. The UST 10yr yield is up +9 bps from yesterday, now back up at 4.28%.
EQUITIES DEEPLY NEGATIVE
The local equity market has fallen -1.9% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -1.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday down -2.8% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -1.5% and Shanghai is down -0.7%. Singapore is down -0.7%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade down -1.4% on the S&P500. The world is paying a Trump incompetency price.
OIL JUMPS
American oil prices have risen +US$4 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$99/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$10 to just over US$110.50/bbl. Things are worse in the Persian Gulf and there are still no ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz, other than those with Iran's blessing.
CARBON PRICE DOWN
There have been more trades so far today on the secondary market, but the price has fallen -$2.50 to $39/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DROPS HARD
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen -US$153/oz and now back at US$4846/oz. Silver is down -US$3.50 to US$76/oz.
NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +220 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.9 and down a net -30 bps from where we were this time yesterday.
BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,040 and down -4.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.0%.
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29 Comments
EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE AGAIN
not in the para that follows it ...
Fixed!
So the government is going to somehow subsidise petrol use on roads requiring bitumen maintenance at 50% price increase. This crisis is not going to go well with BAU thinking, there really does need to be change.
Yip, road maintenance prices going up, income from fuel taxes coming down, somethings gotta give
The mighty Chris Joye is on The Karl Stefanovic Show episode titled “Australia Is No Longer The Lucky Country - Economist Sounds Alarm,” released y'day. Highly recommended viewing.
Wolverine (Joye) rips the RBA a new one and goes on to say the RBA ran a “cheap money” experiment, stopping its cash rate hike cycle too early and not taking it to the 5–5.5% range reached by Anglosphere peers The board overruled its own Martin model, which pointed to a 5% cash rate, and later had to reverse course and re-hike, making it “the embarrassment of the central banking world” for cutting then hiking again.
CJ reckons the RBA was “politically compromised” by the Treasurer’s appointments (governor, deputy, most board members), which he sees as stacking the board to engineer pre‑election cuts.
He argues inflation is being driven primarily by “completely reckless” federal and state government spending, not an overheating private sector. And then highlights the rapid escalation of NDIS and broader welfare/state-related outlays, claiming around half of Australians now derive more than half their income from government or government-related sectors.
He frames Australia’s current choice as an inescapable trade‑off: high government spending means high inflation and therefore high interest rates; you can’t sustainably have both big government and low rates.
He says Australia’s productivity performance is among the worst in the world, with more labour needed to produce the same output, driven largely by the public sector rather than households and small businesses. And he characterizes Australia as having shifted from “lucky country” to “lazy land,” arguing that generous government support and cultural shifts (work‑from‑home, right to disconnect) have weakened incentives to work and compete.
He criticizes reliance on high immigration as a growth model, saying population growth boosts GDP and props up housing but does not raise per‑capita living standards; only productivity does.
On the Ponzi, Joye reckons further RBA hikes to roughly 4.5–5% cash rate will push mortgage rates higher, drive national house prices down perhaps around 0–10% over the next year (with Perth/Brisbane as bullish outliers), and “crush” indebted borrowers while savers benefit.
He argues banks benefit from higher rates via wider net interest margins on zero‑rate transaction deposits, even if weaker credit growth partially offsets this. And he sees high immigration and housing subsidies as preventing a catastrophic property crash, but warns that if the cash rate goes above 5% it could become a “bloodbath” for housing.
That's what you get with a Labour ruler spending like a drunken sailor.
Looks like Trumps war about to RIP Aussie a new one as well.
"...an inescapable trade‑off: high government spending means high inflation and therefore high interest rates; you can’t sustainably have both big government and low rates."
A message that's also wilfully ignored by many NZdrs & almost all political parties here.
If CJ were ever to become more familiar with us, it would be great to hear his analysis of NZs RBNZ & local/central Govt performance: it's certainly difficult to think of an equivalent NZ economic commentator.
Aotearoa doesn't have people in the same league as Wolverine. His business Coolabah Capital Investments is one of the most active traders of Australian and New Zealand bonds globally, so they pay close attention to RBNZ policy. Coolabah has a Portfolio Management Director, Head of New Zealand, but he's more low-key than the mighty Joye.
I see the government has enough money to throw Robbie Williams a bone but food stalls in Queenstown are going to be banned. Where’s David Seymour when you need him….
Council staff said traders were a nuisance because of smells, litter and clutter.
Basically they don't want the riff raff in their town, unless they want to pay premium prices at higher-rate paying businesses.
Fortunately, I have zero interest and desire in Queenie these days.
QTown is a high priced rip off, I prefer to stay Frankton or Arrow town ways and just go for ski fields anyways.
I do like the steaks at the small craft beer bar, if forced though.
I found the food stalls pretty good. 1 less reason to go now.
But just a small example of how our regs and policies support the big guy and screw the little guy. Free market my arse.
Pretty good scam tho
Lobby government for new regs that are too cumbersome or expensive for the little guy to implement.
Big corp has market to itself, passes reg costs on to customer. Charge customer more again because there's no competition.
Yip. I got deep pockets. Gunna lobby the government. Get the rules increased in my favour. Call it the ‘market’. Laugh all the way to the bank.
Yes, apparently another govt incapable of saying no to starstruck corporate welfare for "feelz" (cf film industry). You'd think lessons would have been learned from Covid DJs etc.
Fugitive scam king Benjamin Mauerberger who did his trade in Auckland—and wanted for laundering billions from fake crypto schemes -- is offloading global assets, starting with this $20.7m apartment in the Aman New York on 5th Av
Sales records show Mauerberger sold the apartment on Jan 15 for USD18.5m, a $2.2m loss. The buyer was 16B NYC LLC. How did the U.S. DOJ allow such a sale to go through while Mauerberger is the focus of a global manhunt?
Mauerberger's original Aman purchase in 2024 only came to light because his wife, Cattaliya Beevor, was named in documents. Who is behind the new owner, 16B NYC LLC, and why would they purchase an apartment from a global fugitive?
Mauerberger wasn't just a HNWI who liked Aman's $4,000-a-night hotels and apartments. He also got involved in the development of Aman properties in Dubai and elsewhere.
https://whalehunting.projectbrazen.com/the-great-yacht-swap-mauerberger…
No doubt the cosy little club and the Russiaphobes/Sinophobes that pack-attacked my comments on Monday will have the UK Navy Commodore, Steve Jermy, down as a Russian asset as well.
At 34:00...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MN7nECum_w&t=832s
...quoted...
"Of course the key player now, or a potential key player, in bringing this war to a close is Russia, and so it doesn't surprise me at all that Trump has actually phoned Putin, and it sounds like they had a fairly sober discussion, but Russia could be a key player in bringing this war to a close, because I very much doubt that the Iranians are going to listen to the to the Americans - and why would they, I mean each time they have tried to negotisate with the Americans they have been attacked.
I think the most plausible people to actually mediate some sort of conclusion to this war would be Russia. Now Russia is probably the great beneficiary of the war, and indeed the Russian economy is the great beneficiary of the war, and not that it was doing badly. And so what that also means is that if the Russian economy is strong, then the chances of the Europeans sanctioning Russia to the table are even less than they already were.
But it is also in China's interests that the war is brought to a close, and so I think the two ideal mediators would be China and Russia..."
Never to old to learn the art of making friends Col
It's in Russia's interests both financially and militarily for the US to shit the bed in Iran.
China is the real winner, they get to just watch their two greatest adversaries (remember there is a lot of bad blood between the Russian and Chinese) implode.
And Iran is probably a while away from any peace treaty. They're existentially threatened and have no reason to offer goodwill to the US. If they keep doing what they're doing, in 3-6 months they can render most of the Gulf States defunct. The Saudis look to be threatening Iran, but their military isn't much chop.
Iran has made all the Gulf Arab States their mortal enemies now. They will be compelled to assist Israel and the US in seeing this thing through. They don't really have any choice. At some stage soon it will dawn on Europe and possibly even Australia and NZ that they too also have no choice.
The Gulf States don't have much offensive capability.
They're also likely extremely hesitant in allying militarily with Israel.
Militarily there's not a lot that can be done to halt Irans strangle on Hormuz and attacks on neighbours without a substantial protracted ground offensive against a foe that's been prepping for this style of warfare for decades.
The country that put he Gulf states in the proverbial and failed to protect them adequately is the USA, not Iran, who had no plans to bomb the Gulf States at all, prior to the USA attack.
No choice but to assist two genocidal, lunatic regimes that started yet another major war on completely false pretences????
An illegal war, in every sense of the word. One that is already spiralling out of control and could potentially develop into a nuclear holocaust that threatens all life on earth????
And both the aggressors are riddled with evangelical nutjob rapturists, who salivate over a ME apocalyptic event, just because they fancy that once and for all, they can prove that their pet god-construct was the very centre of the universe all along????
What on earth are you smoking, Zachary - WAKE UP!!!
QATAR LNG gas terminal hit
and Saudi oil terminal targeted, if that one goes there is no loading out of Gulf left!
Saudi Arabia says drone crashed at Samref refinery
Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry says a drone has crashed at Saudi Aramco’s Samref refinery in the port of Yanbu.
“Damages are being assessed,” according to the ministry.
shits getting very real here.
And in the UK, they're giving people instructions on what to do in case of Nuclear attack.
Good thing the world has stable and cohesive leadership
Should be teaching them something relevant, like how to live when the trucks stop deliveries to their supermarket.
just as well we don't.... nek minnit
About 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) – a vital resource that affects a huge part of the global population – comes from Qatar, specifically from the gasfield it shares with Iran.
It is the second-largest producer of LNG, second only to the United States. LNG is used in everything from heating and cooling to power generation, heavy industry and transportation.
The Iranian attack [at the Ras Laffan gas facility] does affect large swaths of the global economy.
In the aftermath, Qatar ordered Iranian security and military attaches and their staff based in Doha to leave the country within 24 hours. We have also seen strong anger and condemnation from Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia over the attacks.
The global ramifications will play out over the coming days and weeks.
"QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters that the damage could take three to five years to repair, knocking out roughly 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports"
so that's 3-4% of the world's gas supply shut off for 3-5 years in an instant.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/never-in-my-wildest-dreams-iran-stri…
As you imply, we are currently almost entirely isolated from the impacts of that as we don't participate in the global gas market. That will all change if we get an LNG import terminal.
Get solar ASAP
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