Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has raised its rate card today. Details here. So has HBS and Unity Money. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has raised all its TD rates for 1-5 years, as did BNZ. So did Finance Direct and HBS. And we have reviewed where TD rates are at, at the moment, here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
GROWTH ONLY COMES FROM NON-PRIORITY AREAS
StatsNZ said GDP rose just +0.2% in the December 2025 quarter to be +1.3% higher than a year ago, way less than expected. Rental, hiring and real estate services were the largest contributors. There is no momentum in this 'recovery'.
VANISHING RETURNS
Residential property has become less attractive to investors as capital gains dry up. Low returns on falling rents and rising interest rates, and potential negative cash flows from tax treatments, are reducing the appeal.
COVID CROOK
A Tauranga man will serve 24 months’ imprisonment for tax and COVID related offending, with leave to apply for home detention. Vincent Reynolds was sentenced in the Tauranga District Court on March 17 on ten fraud/evasion charges. Reynolds used or attempted to use false GST and income tax returns, false documents, made false COVID relief claims and provided altered bank statements to get money he wasn’t entitled to. In total he applied for more than $131,800 but received $84,265. He spent all the money on himself.
BETTER THAN TDs
The 6 year CHFA bond we noted yesterday achieved a yield of 5.1% pa.
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 TURNS SHARPLY LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -2.0% so far today. It is heading for a -1.2% drop over the past five working days, and down -1.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +8.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -3.9% so far today. Gains from Turners, Vista, Investore Property and Genesis have been outweighed by sharp falls by Gentrack, F&P Healthcare, Kathmandu and Auckland Airport.
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COUNCILS & NZTA ON ALERT
Since the start of March, the international bitumen price has jumped +50%, just saying. The only time it was higher was for a few days in June 2022 in the midst of pandemic lockdowns. This rise isn't going to be for just a few days.
MARGINALLY WORSE
In Australia, their jobless rate rose to 4.3% in February, up from the 4.1% forecast and levels seen in the previous two months. This is back to the November level. Full time jobs rose fell -30,500 while part-time jobs rose +79,500. Their participation rate hit a four-month high of 66.9%. (As at December 2025, the NZ jobless rate was 5.4% and will be updated for Q1-2026 on May 6.)
SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be slightly higher today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bps at 2.52% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 4.99%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.26% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.72%, up +5 bps from this time Wednesday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -8 bps at 4.60. The UST 10yr yield is up +9 bps from yesterday, now back up at 4.28%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE AGAIN
The local equity market has fallen -1.9% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -1.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday down -2.8% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -1.5% and Shanghai is down -0.7%. Singapore is down -0.7%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade down -1.4% on the S&P500. The world is paying a Trump incompetentcy price.
OIL JUMPS
American oil prices have risen +US$4 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$99/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$10 to just over US$110.50/bbl. Things are worse in the Persian Gulf and there are still no ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz, other than those with Iran's blessing.
CARBON PRICE DOWN
There have been more trades so far today on the secondary market, but the price has fallen -$2.50 to $39/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DROPS HARD
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen -US$153/oz and now back at US$4846/oz. Silver is down -US$3.50 to US$76/oz.
NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +220 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.9 and down a net -30 bps from where we were this time yesterday.
BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,040 and down -4.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.0%.
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4 Comments
EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE AGAIN
not in the para that follows it ...
So the government is going to somehow subsidise petrol use on roads requiring bitumen maintenance at 50% price increase. This crisis is not going to go well with BAU thinking, there really does need to be change.
The mighty Chris Joye is on The Karl Stefanovic Show episode titled “Australia Is No Longer The Lucky Country - Economist Sounds Alarm,” released y'day. Highly recommended viewing.
Wolverine (Joye) rips the RBA a new one and goes on to say the RBA ran a “cheap money” experiment, stopping its cash rate hike cycle too early and not taking it to the 5–5.5% range reached by Anglosphere peers The board overruled its own Martin model, which pointed to a 5% cash rate, and later had to reverse course and re-hike, making it “the embarrassment of the central banking world” for cutting then hiking again.
CJ reckons the RBA was “politically compromised” by the Treasurer’s appointments (governor, deputy, most board members), which he sees as stacking the board to engineer pre‑election cuts.
He argues inflation is being driven primarily by “completely reckless” federal and state government spending, not an overheating private sector. And then highlights the rapid escalation of NDIS and broader welfare/state-related outlays, claiming around half of Australians now derive more than half their income from government or government-related sectors.
He frames Australia’s current choice as an inescapable trade‑off: high government spending means high inflation and therefore high interest rates; you can’t sustainably have both big government and low rates.
He says Australia’s productivity performance is among the worst in the world, with more labour needed to produce the same output, driven largely by the public sector rather than households and small businesses. And he characterizes Australia as having shifted from “lucky country” to “lazy land,” arguing that generous government support and cultural shifts (work‑from‑home, right to disconnect) have weakened incentives to work and compete.
He criticizes reliance on high immigration as a growth model, saying population growth boosts GDP and props up housing but does not raise per‑capita living standards; only productivity does.
On the Ponzi, Joye reckons further RBA hikes to roughly 4.5–5% cash rate will push mortgage rates higher, drive national house prices down perhaps around 0–10% over the next year (with Perth/Brisbane as bullish outliers), and “crush” indebted borrowers while savers benefit.
He argues banks benefit from higher rates via wider net interest margins on zero‑rate transaction deposits, even if weaker credit growth partially offsets this. And he sees high immigration and housing subsidies as preventing a catastrophic property crash, but warns that if the cash rate goes above 5% it could become a “bloodbath” for housing.
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