Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Mutual Credit Finance raised all its TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
LANDLORDS LOSE THEIR MARKET POWER OVER TENANTS
Trade Me Property says median rents were down -3.1% year-on-year in February with renting getting easier and more affordable for tenants, even those with pets.
TRADE DEFICIT JUMPS $700 MLN
StatsNZ says February exports rose only +0.4% from year-ago levels while imports rose +11.8% on the same basis. That resulted in a merchandise trade deficit of -$257 mln in the month, far worse than the +445 surplus in the same month a year ago, but less than the -$319 mln deficit in February 2024. This is not a good point from which to go into a global trade mess.
WHAT HAPPENED WITH OUR FIVE MAJOR TRADE PARTNERS
Our country trade deficits with Australia, Japan and Korea got sharply worse in February compared to February a year ago. Our surplus with the US held. Our surplus with China halved. Trade with these five countries represent almost 60% of all our exports.
NOT SPENDING ON TRACTORS
Farmers may be making lots of money, but one thing they aren't doing is spending it on new tractors. Only 130 were registered in February, down -13% from a year ago to the lowest February level since 2010. In between an average February saw 173 tractors sold.
NO MOMENTUM
Domestic billings on credit cards issued locally softened a bit in February, to be +2.1% higher than year-ago levels. That can all me accounted for by inflation - in fact real billings will; likely have eased. That weakness isn't resulting in users using the [expensive] debt facilities of these cards any more than they have. In fact only about half the card balances are not paid off in full monthly, close to a series low.
SLOW GROWTH
BNZ said its analysis of the SEEK job ads activity shows It was more of the same in the February. Ad numbers are trending higher and building momentum, albeit off a low base. Ads for the latest three months (Dec – Feb) are +3.9% above the previous three months (Sep - Nov). Combined with the modest lift in January filled jobs, the labour market is continuing to recover in early 2026. This is consistent with their economic forecasts. They say the conflict in the Middle East is more likely to dampen, rather than stop employment growth.
DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
AN UNWELCOME HIGH
Where we are (Auckland) it is a great warm early Autumn day with warm temperatures. So it is a bit of a puzzle why wholesale electricity prices are so high today. Any clues? (H/T TR)
NZX50 LOWER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today. It is heading for a -1.5% weekly drop, and down -1.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +1.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down another -1.7% so far today. There were just 22 overall market gainers led by
GOOD DEMAND, HIGHER YIELDS
We missed noting this yesterday, so here it is now. The $450 mln NZ Government bond tender of three maturities brought 125 bids worth $1.4 mln. Interestingly, The May 2041 long bond was very popular with 42 bids. The 5.01% yield for that bond it is highest since May 2025.
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SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be higher today on building uncertainty. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bps at 2.51% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 5.00%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also unchanged at 2.26% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74%, up +2 bps from this time Thursday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +8 bps at 4.68. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps from yesterday, now back at 4.26%.
EQUITIES STAY NEGATIVE
The local equity market has fallen -0.4% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Friday down -3.4% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.5% and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is also down -0.1%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade down -0.3% on the S&P500.
OIL FALLS
American oil prices have fallen -US$6 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$93/bbl as Trump realises he has to pull back somehow, while the international Brent price is down -US$4.50 to just under US$106/bbl. Things are fluid and confusing in the Persian Gulf.
CARBON PRICE DOWN
There have been more trades so far today on the secondary market, but the price has fallen -$2.50 to $39/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DROPS FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen another -US$170/oz and now back at US$4676/oz. Silver is down -US$2 to US$74/oz.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +70 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just over 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.5 and up a net +50 bps from where we were this time yesterday.
BITCOIN DROPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,353 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.
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30 Comments
Ahhh yes, a measly 3% rent dip after years of gains = property collapse confirmed!
Or....maybe just a bit of supply catching up and landlords having to compete again?
Swaps ticking up, bond demand solid, labour market stabilising so hardly end-of-days sorta stuff
Just a soft patch than the apocalypse some are hoping for.
I can hear it now:
Maaate you're dreaming
Biting on your sausage
sliding down the banana skin
drip drip drip.... he should really get that looked at
This wont age well
Lets see where we are in 6–12 months
Would imagine, and hopefully so, that the purchase of a new tractor is presently in priorities, playing second fiddle to the reduction of debt on any farm’s balance sheet or is it that these days they simply can be maintained and run reasonably trouble free?
Driving into town this afternoon and gazed into the tractor dealer yards at all the flash gear worth 100s of 000s. Then I imagined how much all that metal would be worth with a permanantly dry fuel tank?
The traffic on the main road Washdyke Timaru was about as wall to wall as usual for mid afternoon. Obviously all OK with the Trump war tax?
There's a trend of much larger corporate farms just contracting machinery work out.
So potentially over time there could be fewer tractors sold, but they're doing way more work.
During lovely times in the lovely Coromandel was struck by the many, many holiday homes with the old tractor parked under a tarpaulin to tow, the jet ski, runabout or whatever to and from the water. Sort of seemed like old horses having being put out to pasture.
Farmers may be making lots of money, but one thing they aren't doing is spending it on new tractors.
https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/news/arable-sector-in-crisis-as-growers…
Sounds like a strong case to establish a seed cooperative when that % of world seed needs are grown in NZ.
Growers come together and build greater market power in that international market. It's what we do successfully with dairy and kiwifruit.
"The shock and awe has been a reality check for the markets, with the Australian share market, as measured by the S&P ASX 200, losing roughly 7 per cent of its value, or about $250 billion, since the war began."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-20/middle-east-war-australian-super…
Our country trade deficits with Australia, Japan and Korea got sharply worse in February compared to February a year ago. Our surplus with the US held. Our surplus with China halved. Trade with these five countries represent almost 60% of all our exports.
- Milk powder, butter, and cheese, down $105 million (4.8%)
- Preparations of milk, cereals, flour, and starch**, down $56 million (19%)
- Casein and caseinates, down $47 million (34%)
If you look at the change in vol (qty) vs value in the link, you will see that the value is actually worse. That is not good.
AUSTRAC calls in 10 banks for key meeting on spike in mortgage fraud. The agency requested data from the lenders as it works to assess the extent of the fraud and whether properties funded by criminal proceeds should be seized.
Aussie is a train wreck. Corrupt and crime ridden. Another example, 53 Lamborghini cars for sale or order in Lakemba [https://shorturl.at/6FoRY]
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/austrac-calls-in-10-ba…
Their central bank looks the most corrupt. 4/9 wanted to hold rates with CPI at 3.8% and fuel going nuts since.
It's criminal for the ruling elite to project to the public that central banks are independent. They're not. But it's also naive for the public to think they're independent.
I'd say most people just lump them together with the states' warm embrace.
The public may, but i'd suggest the embrace is more with those they are supposed to regulate.
The conditions of remaining in the club are strictly enforced.
The 4/9 probably have large property portfolios (and I'm not being sarcastic or joking) - but they will of course be impartial, independent and making decisions that are best for the economy and not their own net worth (free from bias....yeah right!)
LOL, my fuel retailer won't allow any more pre-purchasing of fuel
On TV1 news tonight industry comments promoting relax nz fuel stds (eg sulphur in diesel) asap, a step Oz govt took earlier this week.
Once the back pocket is hit badly, everyone is an environmental agnostic. Makes a mockery of the hypocritical virtue signaling.
The status quo is more often the cheapest way to do something.
So any other way, done for other reasons, means you either pay more to achieve the same thing, or you just do less.
It doesn’t really make a mockery; sometimes you need to go to emergency settings. For example if we run out of food our household may have to resort to our stock of canned food. That doesn’t mean our normal diet was virtue signalling.
Also some of us disagree with those comments, they aren’t fact.
It means you hadn't seen something coming.
And your stock of canned food won't be staving-off that which you hadn't seen coming, for very long.
The comment about abandoning virtue-signalling is a valid one - we will all do, and eat, what we have to, to survive. Certified organic will go out the window when Chch has to eat off the Cant'y plains.
Anything could be coming. You could get cancer tomorrow. A war could have happened any year.
It’s always good to have a plan, but trying to mitigate every possible outcome is impossible
It's like so many things in life where pragmatic trade-offs are made. Like buying the cheap loaf of bread so you can pay for carrots.
What is the the actual environmental impact of switching from 10ppm sulphur diesel to 15ppm diesel fir a relatively short period (months or less hopefully)? What is the potential for food supply disruption (drive retail prices higher) if 10ppm S fuel isn't available to refuel the tractor, or harvester?
It ties in to the often stated but false 'better for the planet' - when the fact is that it is less-bad for the planet per time. But if kept going longer, a lesser-impact activitycan have cumulatively more impact.
The same people who don't get that, usually don't get exponential growth.
Assumedly the suspect sulphurous diesel is being unashamedly used at alternative word locations so then what’s the difference then about who emits it. Surely the pertinent question is if it is so damaging why is it still being produced? Just being cynical as to be expected.
As a kid, dad had a Cat D2 solely as an ag and runabout tractor. Designed to run on the roughest, high S diesel. When cultivating, and operating under high load, the first 6" or so of the exhaust above the bonnet glowed red hot - very impressive in the dusk. Then in the mid/late 60s I think NZ changed to low S diesel. It never glowed again and dad reckoned it lost appreciable power output.
I hope people are watching the swap rates closely. That was a massive shift up today. Expect much higher mortgage rates to start flowing out from the banks as a result of this over the next week or two (beyond what we saw this week).
A number of the swaps 2-5 years are up 50bps in the past month - this will flow through to mortgage rates.
The RBNZ might feel the need to do or say something prior to the next meeting to give the impression they have control over inflation and interest rates - as at the moment the wholesale markets have detached completely from RBNZ forecasts.
Swaps and the OCR are quickly becoming too far detached from one another. Nearly 75bps between the 1 year swap and OCR - last time this happened inflation and OCR went up over 5% because they were too slow to act.
Waiting until the 8th of April to do or say something might be too late in hindsight - the horse might have well and truly bolted by then and be 3 paddocks over and gone.
A 50bps or 75bps rise at the next meeting might, in hindsight be a sensible decision - if things keep going the way they are, even a 25bps rise won't be enough (or make any difference) - unless of course some miracle happens where Trump and Iran find peace - but I don't see that happening for at least a few more months - maybe 6 months - by which time swaps will be gone, completely detached from the central bank narrative and inflation rising dramatically through the economy in a nasty feedback loop like we saw a few years ago.
Yes, swaps have def moved, but banks dont really reprice 1:1 or overnight. Seems more like a bit of upward pressure rather than a sudden jump in mortgage rates
Walk through your super market re the food chain, look at all the product in plastic packaging
- 2L milk containers
- Tim Tams
- steak and chicken in freezer
- coffee refills
Plastic inputs are from refineries
tick tock, tick tock
maybe we could go back to one off plastic bags..... wait a minute.
start hoarding your fav's that are in plastics.
its going to get interesting real fast here
What percentage of the cost of milk is the raw plastic? Then multiply it by the possible increase. Probably not much.
But we don’t really need any added inflation right now so I take your point.
its not about price, its about no availability at any price....
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