Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are changes to report today from ASB and Kiwibank, details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Both ASB and Kiwibank raise some term deposit rates too, as did Rabobank. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
'LOOKING THROUGH' OR 'TURNING A BLIND EYE'?
Tightening monetary policy in response to a short-lived disruption would only dampen growth without materially improving near-term inflation outcomes, Anna Breman says. She says the RBNZ will 'look through' an expected temporary inflation spike.
A YEAR OLD BUT STILL QUITE INTERESTING
StatsNZ says Southland had the largest increase in regional GDP in the year to March 2025 (nominal, not inflation adjusted). A very strong dairy industry in the region drove this result. National nominal GDP growth for this period was +3.3%, but Southland recorded +9.8%. Every region but four had growth in the period of at least +4%. The laggards were Auckland (2.1%), Taranaki (+0.7%), Wellington (-0.1%) and Nelson/Marlborough (+2.0%). This pretty much mirrors the ASB Regional Scorecard, that is up to the end of 2025. This one found Canterbury outperforming the rest of the country, Otago and Waikato coming in second place equal, Auckland showing promising signs of improvement, jumping to fourth place, but Wellington remaining under pressure, finishing in last place.
DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 LOWER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.8% so far today, reversing the morning gains. It is heading for a -3.0% weekly drop, and down -2.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +5.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.8% so far today. There have been 24 gainers today in total, led by Hallensteins (+3.9%), Tourism Holdings (+3.8%), AirNZ (+3.6%) and Kathmandu (+2.1%). There have been 47 decliners however, with the major ones being Vulcan Steel (-5.4%), Synlait Milk (-4.0%), SkyCity casino (-2.7%, and a2 Milk (-2.1%).
HOLDING HIGH?
Tomorrow's Pulse dairy auction is expected to hold last week's full auction prices, according to derivatives pricing. There may be a small rose in SMP, and a small fallback in the butter price, according to these signals. Recall last week's full auction was a 'hold' too.
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GOODBYE
ExxonMobil has hired Goldman Sachs to sell off its New Zealand Mobil business, according to Sydney merchant banker reports.
AU-EU TRADE DEAL
In Australia, they have agreed a free trade deal with the EU. Many sheep farmers are not happy with the limited gains. And see this.
SWAP RATES EASE BACK SOMEWHAT
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be sharply lower today on global and local RBNZ moral suasion. We have seen falls of -5 to -8 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +7 bps at 2.59% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 5.05%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also down -4 bps at 2.27% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.86%, down -2 bps from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +14 bps at 4.87% but will likely fall back in tomorrow's report. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps from this time yesterday at 4.38%. Despite all this easing today, the net result is sharply higher rates across the board.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED, BUT WANTING TO BELIEVE
The local equity market has fallen -1.1% in Tuesday trade so far, still at a seven month low. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Tuesday up +0.6% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +1.2% and Shanghai is up +0.3%. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street had a strong start to its Monday trade with the S&P500 ending up +1.1Y.
OIL FALLS BUT STILL BERY HIGH
American oil prices have fallen -US$6.50 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$92/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$8 at US$104/bbl. Things are still fluid and confusing in the Persian Gulf.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS (LOW)
There have been very few and very small trades so far today on the secondary market, the price is holding at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DROPS FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen another -US$77/oz and now back at US$4326/oz. Silver is up +50 USc to US$67/oz.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday against the USD, now at just under 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +60 bps at 83.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.1 and up a net +10 bps from yesterday..
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,540 and up +3.9% from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.2%.
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6 Comments
Maccy B highlights Aussie consumer confidence hits a 57-year low as measured by ANZ-Roy Morgan. While the Ponzi is running on all cylinders.
Doesn't make any sense to me.
Is the RBA supposed to hike three more times this year?
Emergency mid-meeting cuts are more likely.
But not before the diesel machinery grinds to a halt, followed by a massive jump in unemployment.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/03/emergency-rate-cuts-as-consume…
Like Australia
The Ponzi is Out of Gas
In Australia, they have agreed a free trade deal with the EU. Many sheep farmers are not happy with the limited gains. And see this.
The Aussie govt's media release smacks of desperation.
For ex, they state as a "win", "the EU will eliminate tariffs on all manufactured goods, except steel, including machinery, electrical goods, textiles and auto parts."
Is it realistic to expect the EU to be sourcing manufacturing from Aussie?
The cheerleading goes on,
Australia's most progressive trade deal ever
The A–EU FTA makes commitments on the environment, climate change, gender equality and women's economic empowerment, and workers' rights and standards.
Southland. Not been there much until the last few years. Go yourself and check it out
Phenomenal. A producer of vast wealth for New Zealand. As is much of agriculture in the South Island.
Warning: Those who think New Zealand stops at Greenlane Road, are not well enough equipped to understand.
Ferry service. I was booked on Bluebridge Connemara today, had been watching since last Friday when it broke down. BB kept extending unavailable sailing days (now out till Thursday) & I couldn't risk it for my house settlement so yesterday rebooked last available space on interislander & stayed overnight.in Picton (lovely trip, flat calm across the Strait & a pleasant evening cruise through the Sounds). I drove through to chch today (with Cilla, Rod & Aretha), very pleasant light traffic although plenty of tourists in campers.
Today I received an email advising me the interislander is down to a single vessel till September. If you're planning a trip across this year it'd be best to book now.
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