Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are changes to report today from BNZ, details here. ICBC also raised its fixed rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ raises some term deposit rates too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
OUTLOOK DOWNGRADED
Ratings agency Fitch has downgraded Kiwibank's credit rating outlook from 'Stable' to 'Negative, while maintaining its core rating as AA. Last week it made the same outlook adjustment for the New Zealand sovereign rating, and that is the main reason the SOE bank has been adjusted.
NO WAY TO MAKE MONEY
Residential investment property is becoming characterised by increasingly low returns, according to our updated review of gross rental yields and cashflows.
FEELING BETTER ABOUT THE JOB MARKET?
The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index rose by 1.8 points to 95.6 in the March quarter, the highest reading since early 2024. A level below 100 indicates that there are more households who are pessimistic about the outlook than those who are optimistic. But most of this survey was completed before the affordability issues. flowing from petrol prices and the war on Iran started ramping up.
DAIRY PRICES SOFTER
The overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered slightly lower prices across the four commodities offered, all down about -3% in USD, marginally less in NZD.
CONWAY POINTS THE FINGER AT GOVT INACTION ON KEY REFORMS
The RBNZ's chief economist says we can’t just rely on monetary policy to sort out our economic problems.. He points out that monetary policy can’t fix cost of living, and that it is the Government's responsibility to make structural reform. Those are required to ensure productivity improves, because that is the only non-inflationary way to raise incomes and living standards.
DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
JET FUEL PRICES CAUSE CUTBACKS
Jetstar has announced it is reducing flights between Australia and New Zealand due to the rising cost of jet fuel as a result of the war in the Middle East. IATA monitoring shows that jet fuel prices are up +130% from a month ago.
NZX50 RISES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.6% so far today. It is heading for a -3.2% weekly drop, and down -1.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +6.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.8% so far today. EBOS, Ryman, Infratil, and F&P Healthcare lead the NZX50 to a strong gain while Serko, Kathmandu, Tourism Holdings, and Tower are the main decliners.
SEEKING BETTER OUTCOMES
The FMA has been working with industry professionals about how savers can get better financial advice. All very laudable (because good financial advice is very valuable). But they didn't address the elephant issue in all this - advisers are mostly paid by the financial industry product providers and so have inherent conflicts of interest. Until this addressed by the FMA, skepticism will spread. They just need to look to the Dutch solution.
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NEW COMCOM CHIEF EXEC
The Commerce Commission has appointed Suzanne Stew as chief executive (from the MBIE) following the departure of long-serving Chief Executive Adrienne Meikle, who left the role at the end of 2025 to lead the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development. These roles operate in the shadow of the public facing profile of the chairman, John Small.
MORE BORROWERS BORROWING LESS
New mortgage lending, other than just a change in loan provider or top-ups, rose strongly again in February, up +16.6% from the same month in 2025. The average value of lending from a change in loan provider eased sharply to $646,000, down from the record high $723,500 in January.. New lending for a purchase averaged $594,600, also a fall from December's record high of $637,700. It makes sense that in a buyers market where house prices are stable or falling, that borrowers are borrowing less for these transactions.
MERCURY BOND RAISE CONFIRMED
Mercury announced an offer of up to $250 mln (including oversubscriptions) of 7 year unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed rate green bonds to institutional investors and New Zealand retail investors. Here is the term sheet. This is part of a general move by corporates to diversify funding options. Lawyers Chapman Tripp says they are seeing bonds pick up as a source of funding, and the decrease in the USPP market has coincided with longer bank terms becoming available. For borrowers with strong credit profiles, conditions are attractive and competition among lenders remains fierce – but reliance on a single funding source or lender relationship creates concentration risk. Exploring alternative sources – including bonds, private credit and diversified bank relationships – may provide flexibility and resilience, they say.
A MARGINAL EASING, BUT STILL HIGH
In Australia, February CPI inflation was reported as 3.7%, a marginal dip from 3.8% in January. Most sub-categories dipped, except the housing category which rose at the rate of 7.2% pa.
SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be sharply lower today. We have seen falls of almost -10 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -5 bps at 2.54% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -10 bps at 4.95%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also down -2 bps at 2.25% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.78, down -8 bps from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -4 bps at 4.83%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.35%.
LESS DEMAND, HIGHER YIELD
We should also note (because we missed reporting it this morning) that the auction for the US Treasury two year Note brought a median yield of 3.87% on notably lower demand. That is up from 3.40% at the equivalent event a month ago. A feature of this maturity is that it has been a a favoured term for non-US investors. Foreign demand for US Treasuries is a critical edge case that moves markets.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED, BUT WANTING TO BELIEVE
The local equity market has risen +1.5% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +2.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Wednesday up +2.8% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +1.0% and Shanghai is up +1.0%. Singapore is up +0.6%. Wall Street had a weakish Tuesday trade with the S&P500 ending down -0.4%.
OIL FALLS AGAIN
American oil prices have fallen -US$4 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$87.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$6 at US$98/bbl. Things are still fluid and confusing in the Persian Gulf, but headlines are more positive.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS (LOW)
There have been very few and very small trades so far today on the secondary market, the price is holding at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD JUMPS
In early Asian trade, gold has jumped back +US$269/oz and now back at US$4595/oz. Silver is +US$6.50 to US$73.50/oz.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday against the USD, now at just on 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62 and down a net -10 bps from yesterday..
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,592 and virtually unchanged from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.8%.
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127 Comments
Is today
The day the Ponzi died?
Did everyone quit their jobs and walk off into the woods naked?
Hell I was the only one.....
back now warmed up in the spa
It's been bleeding out for a wee while, hasn't it?
Well, depending on the nature of the underbrush, it was likely to, wasn't it?
Depends then on what’s brushing your undies I would suggest.
The only Ponzi scheme I can see at the moment is Gold.
How can an asset that doesn't have any returns be a Ponzi scheme?
The return is the increase in value because the worlds coming to an end and gold is forever.
Work will be required and continue regarless
...it is the Government's responsibility to make structural reform. Those are required to ensure productivity improves, because that is the only non-inflationary way to raise incomes and living standards.
And do politicians ever take this on board? Nope.
It's much easier to encourage property booms.
Yet we been in a massive nominal and REAL property bust, the last 4.5 years.......
Lets roll the bust into the 2030s.
Productive effort/business and younger NZers will be the winners!
Yes our solution for the past 3 decades has been to drop interest rates to increase wealth, instead of increasing productivity. That is why our private debt/GDP has been sky high for nearly 20 years (way up over 100% of GDP).
Amongst all of the property anguish and notoriety there will be some owner occupied households that are no more invested into property than that. Provided that they steadily progress ownership with a P & I mortgage how the market goes up and down is irrelevant, their value will move relatively, more or less pro rata. As a rough guess would wager such ownership is well over 50% of the nations housing stock?
US home sellers are now estimated to outnumber homebuyers by nearly 630k, the largest gap on record with data going back to 2013.
Weaker demand to attributed to still‑high prices and mortgage rates, plus layoffs and elevated economic and political uncertainty, which collectively push marginal buyers to the sidelines.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260323561131/en/There-Are-6300…
Not really surprising - 50% of boomer generation will be dead in the next 10 years. Many still living in 3-4 bedroom homes far to big for their needs.
My street of about 10-12 homes, about 8 of those are widowed women in 70s-80's and will need to downsize in the next 5-10 years. So I think about 75% of the real estate on my street will be on the market in the near future. And when they sell they will be moving into smaller 1-2 bedroom places or retirement homes.
Which they won't be able to afford because they've pushed the prices up.
Better would be to share the bigger houses between 2/3 of them.
Yes. Tomorrow I will settle on a large family home on a reasonable size section, triple garage etc that I'm planning to share with my brother and his wife in retirement. Along with sharing the rates, insurance, energy /broadband bills, maintenance and renovation etc
Easy walking distance to supermarkets, library, banks, restaurants / working men's club, parks, 7d buses etc in a smaller town <30 minutes from chch cbd & airport
Likely on good vege-growing ground too, then?
Good move.
Buses? Aren’t they some kind of commie nightmare for you National voters?
I always wondered why National hates public transport so much when they represent an ageing voter base…
I disagree, buses and trains are great, everyone likes public transport, its not a partisan issue.
I use the bus 2/3rds of the time the other 1/3rd i am trying to pick things up after work etc and just need flexibility
Your point is not a invalid option. However in Christchurch, some of the behaviour on buses is nigh on threatening and then, in the exchange, actually threatening. But do take heart, don’t believe the threateners care too much about what political party the elders they choose to threaten, belong to.
I thought you were heading to the North Island? An issue with ferries?
Elderly people tend to not be the most flexible in their thinking and quite intolerant to change. I think your suggestion for elderly people to share a home is a recipe for disaster
I'm 70, definitely low BS threshold & my intolerance is well founded in a lifetimes experience. However I'm flexible enough to consider a lifestyle change that also benefits my wider family & facilitates our mutual support as we age.
No point being asset rich, cash poor for the sake of status anxiety.
Most of the affordability crisis can be solved if people got on with each other and pooled their resources.
I think society is going to work that out themselves, eventually.
Are you basing this on personal experience?
My partner and I are well-involved in several not-for-profit societal groups; all with the aim of improving our community(ies). They range from recycling to crop-swapping to sports to leisure activities to infrastructure governance/maintenance.
Very rewarding - and very interesting to note the types who are absent such; the selfish, the self-important.
The selfish types busy working to pay for everyone else’s handouts?
Absent will be those who dont see the joy and peace in simplicity and community.
"Are you basing this on personal experience?"
Yes, I just spent a month with my mum and her intolerance is beyond belief.
thats fair "Parents" are a different issue
Candour and valour to be admired. Without wishing to personalise anyone’s family circumstances, it has been said though that everybody else’s mother is a good one.
My Mom was great in small doses
I hear magic mushrooms are the same
large doses not so much, gili island memories
Yvil,
Elderly people tend to not be the most flexible in their thinking and quite intolerant to change.
Yet another pearl of wisdom. I assume you can reference a large scale study to back up your assertion?
Anyone who has lived half a life know that elderly are stuck in their ways and don’t like change.
Macquarie research produced a report today about the impact of AI on banking employment - with focus on the positive business implications like cost cutting and higher profits.
The most likely base case, according to Macquarie, is 18% reduction in jobs, gradual adoption 9% and rapid adoption 30%.
185,000 people employed by the banks - so anywhere from 33,000-56,000 gone if Macquarie is right.
https://thenightly.com.au/business/macquarie-warns-banks-could-replace-…
They reckoned 10% of Aussie mortgages at risk due to AI
If only we too had non recourse mortgages. Would be fun seeing the banks shoot themselves in the foot.
Could get interesting in the states but…
AI double-edged sword for economy
The investment bank also warned AI’s rapid advance means it will be a double-edged sword for banks or other corporates. This is because soaring unemployment levels will likely equal higher bad debt defaults and lower spending among consumers, already battling cost of living pressures.
Specifically, the banks could face higher mortgage arrears and bad debts if borrowers are made redundant over the next five years. In turn this could lead to regulators demanding major lenders lift credit standards and borrowing limits in another potential hit to the housing market, Macquarie said.
“Indeed, if AI-driven labour market disruption ultimately flows through to credit quality and higher capital intensity, the (banking) sector faces a risk of earnings downgrades and (profit) multiple de-rating, with NAB likely more impacted than peers, given their larger SME (small business) exposure,” Macquarie said.
MORE BORROWERS BORROWING LESS
I got an email from ANZ today offering me a "Reno loan" of up to $50,000 at 2.5%, yes, two point five percent 😳. I don't understand how this loan can be so cheap ?
Some sort of central authority is wanting to promote spending in the trades?
It reminds me in the 1980s courtesy Rogernomics with a mortgage rate at 17% my wife and I sold the car and poured that and all we could into paying off the mtge asap. Imagine the unwelcome surprise then when that effort was nearing completion unctuous phone calls and mail from the bank in the vein of - oh look at your equity don’t you know how easy it is to borrow, have yourself a holiday in the islands, buy a new car, what are you waiting for, it’s all yours for the taking. Sure got their customers interests at heart haven’t they, not!
Go on, you deserve a little treat.
The bank also struggles with the concept of not wanting several $20k credit cards.
Yes exactly that. Kept shunting the limit up unsolicited. Told them repeatedly didn’t need and didn’t want that exposure to potential fraud. Didn’t listen. In the end told them to stuff it and went to another provider and eventually took everything else there.
Same story. Left BNZ and went to TSB.
My son was sailing through Samoa - and thus obviously not earning an NZ income, indeed any income - when we got a bank letter to him: 'we think you are worth loaning u to 10k to - what would you like, a boat? A holiday?
We laughed and chucked it in the woodstove.
B/S.
Could have got him some free solar panels. If money will be worthless soon as you proclaim, why wouldn’t you take out debt?
"why wouldn’t you take out debt? "
Debt is the promise to pay....why would you take out (on) debt if you thought repayment was unlikely?
Not unlikely, but if people are right here in predictions of imminent demise, the government will inflate the $ value of the debt. So you'd be best served loading up on it to buy physical goods, and paying it back when minimum wage hits 10 grand an hr.
Right?
"So you'd be best served loading up on it to buy physical goods.."
You may be...as long as it is physical goods you are loading up on (and those goods retain their usefullness)...rather than tokens that represent those goods....which do you think predominates?
As PDK alluded to earlier today, 30,000 Bitcoin for a can of beans. So borrow 30,000 Bitcoin, buy a crap load of solar panels and a can of beans, and then give them the can of beans at a later date. Maybe buy 2 cans for interest.
Excepting most just buy the bitcoin and not the beans
If you think the world is ending, don’t buy the Bitcoin. Borrow it and trade it for something useful. Same with fiat, shares, and even gold.
Visiting London in late 1932 (after the worst of the disruption to the UK external capital markets was over), Minister of Finance Downie Stewart met Keynes. Stewart recorded in his diary:
“I asked him if he would borrow if he was in New Zealand in order to get through the crisis. He said, “Yes, certainly if I were you I would borrow if I could, but if you asked me as a lender I doubt whether I would lend to you.”
https://croakingcassandra.com/2016/11/16/new-zealand-and-the-great-depr…
The borrower (debtor) dosnt make the decision.
The question was whether it's wise to take on a loan on the belief the system's going down so the debt will be of little cost.
I imagine it's done in the same conviction as people who attest when the end of times is, yet won't sell their house and possessions, just in case nothing happens.
If you believed the 'end times' were imminent why would you trade a source of shelter for a promise?
You could live it up in your last days.
You could indeed...though the last days are not usually that energetic
With enough money you can have the energy of a teenager.
PDK has been living his last few days for 20 years.
Yeah I don't get it either - its for up to 3 years as well and with the OCR at 2.25% and the 3 year swap being way up over 3% (to which they would have to manage the loans interest rate risk against), its seems all a bit strange.
You can get 80 grand at 0% for a purchase of an EV/Solar setup/e bike etc via most banks.
Same sort of principle, use cheap money to drive behaviour.
Really ? I'm looking at getting an EV right now. I was going to pay cash for it, but if I can really get a 0% loan, I'd rather keep my cash and get some return on it.
I'm banking with ANZ for business and Westpac for private, how do I apply for a 0% loan for an EV ? Do you have a link ? Thanks
Ever heard of google? Looks like it’s 1% at ANZ and 0% at Westpac
https://www.anz.co.nz/personal/home-loans-mortgages/loan-types/good-ene…
https://www.westpac.co.nz/home-loans-mortgages/options/greater-choices-…
Fantastic, thanks a lot Pa1nter :-)
Are these loans government subsidised ? How else can a bank lend below OCR or even at 0% interest ???
Next time your mortgage fixed rate comes up and you threaten to leave for a better rate, they’ve got your balls in a vice.
And maybe they can get some woke environmentally friendly investment too.
Rubbish
Doing a small amount of digging there's such a thing as Green Loan Principles, which these loans fall under, but the financing of it isn't totally clear.
I assume the rest of your mortgage gets locked into them as well. So they keep a customer and increase their total borrowing.
CBA raises home rates in Aussie for the second time this month.
Rates will reach up to 7.19% for owner-occupiers and 7.04% for investors.
Juicy.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/commonwealth-bank-raises-home-rates-f…
So it begins
so many friends now mentioning their jobs less secure companies who where holding out now rumours of restructures, AI as well, but hope of green shoots now well in rear view mirror, now hope of a landing they can walk away from
I reckon you will see a very bad GDP for the coming Q2
Agree, this year could be even worse than the last few disappointing years. Another winter of discontent, but this time it’s in addition to the previous problems. Proper recession and stagflation seems almost inevitable now.
You couldn’t make this shit up; https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-to-pay-frances-totalenergies-not-to…
To paraphrase then - where there is wind there is a way?
Plenty of wind in this statement:
“We’re partnering with TotalEnergies to unleash nearly [US]$1 billion that was tied up in a lease deposit directed towards the prior administration’s subsidies that were pushing expensive, weather dependent offshore wind,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told reporters.
“We’re allowing this great company to redirect those dollars that have been paid into the Treasury to affordable, reliable and secure oil and natural gas production in the US.”
Un be leave able!!!
"The FMA has been working with industry professionals about how savers can get better financial advice. All very laudable (because good financial advice is very valuable). But they didn't address the elephant issue in all this - advisers are mostly paid by the financial industry product providers and so have inherent conflicts of interest. Until this addressed by the FMA, skepticism will spread. They just need to look to the Dutch solution"
I came here from Scotland in 2003 and then took part in an enquiry in 2004 into the commission structure of so called financial advisers. I made a lengthy written submission having been through the process in the 80s and 90s in the UK and very quickly realised that there was no appetite for any meaningful change. The situation will not improve until commissions are outlawed.How many 'financial advisers' are going to advise that a potential client put money into government stock or TDs-which pay no commission= rather than managed funds which do?
Hmmm somewhat funny seeing all the “everythings collapsing” angles when banks are still offering 2.5% reno loans and 0% EV stuff.
Doesnt really line up that well
Looks more like a soft patch than anything breaking.
If this war / petrol price keeps continuing, everything will collapse. The NZ economy is not ready for interest rate increases. And I’m one of the biggest optimists here.
Well yeh if it drags on long enough it’ll cause issues no doubt.
Just that its a big jump from that to “everything collapses”.
So a big gap between soft patch and full breakdown.
Even already it will increase CPI significantly, and it may take a while for the flow on effects to CPI to be seen. Businesses will not be investing and employing.
Best case fuel prices decrease rapidly in the next month or two, annual CPI only affected by a few basis points, and economy / unemployment not affected too much. Even that scenario is probably enough to put us back into recession, and I’m not sure we can handle another one.
Worst case?
Well maybe not everything will collapse.
We won't be talking much about house prices though.
some of us will mention that we saw prices falling until yields supported prices....
And I'll mention that I've everything else will have to be super sucky when that happens.
Oh and no one said that'd happen due to successive conflicts in short duration. Everyone seemed to think it'd happen on its own.
Gravity sucks you can blame the reversion to mean returns on covfefe, hippy or the fact its Thursday, hell even fossil fuel running out
You are better then that
Reversion to the mean was going to happen because, unless prices go to infinity, stats was always going to WIN
R.I.P The Ponzi 25/3/2026
Put the omelette down.
Values of most things won't sustain if the world continues to spiral into conflict, housing won't be alone or unique.
But as I said above, if this comes to be, "the ponzi" will be the least thing on most people's minds.
you are right financial values will keep adjusting in real time, as they always have, based on yield and risk... in liquid markets its in real time via a Bloomberg Terminal...
there is nothing new under the sun
and there is no fool like an old fool
as they always have, based on yield and risk..
I don't think many markets have been using that methodology for quite some time. Like, that might nudge things in one direction or another, but most valuations are now based on story rather than any sort of actual financial appraisal.
financial markets have. maybe the markets you follow are in for a rude awaking
Your kiwi saver is heavily invested
Every Monday morning Bloomberg reports the market open, every asset listed has a bid and an offer, thats the price...
You may not believe it , or like it, but thats the PRICE
thats how the risk department values your position, unless your head is stuck up .... a position market risk does not approve of.
how else could you value assets?
this is the exact reason private cap has lost the plot
Which financial markets? I'm not really aware of many shares priced sensibly relative to yields. Nor precious metals or currencies.
Don't really have much kiwisaver so it can go to zero.
Every Monday morning Bloomberg reports the market open, every asset listed has a bid and an offer, thats the price...
You may not believe it , or like it, but thats the PRICE
That's right. It's the price. Just like a house selling at auction for a figure you can't rationalize.
But none of that really shows how the price is being justified, just that someone was willing to pay that much for it.
how else could you value assets?
Depends on the asset. If it's a business, I'd want to know it's stock, revenue and profits, what it's history is and what the market is trending towards in future.
Thats what all the private capital investors believe. Then the reality check... your investment is worth squato and no you cant pull your funds outs as you watch the bus head towards the cliff. But we will still take our fees.
One born every minute.
Say THANKYOU!
Funnily enough I prefer the story of property much more than that of Bitcoin, gold, silver, and shares. If everything goes really tits up, property still has some value. I certainly wouldn’t exchange my property for any of the above right now.
Its not actually your property, try not paying the rates bill.....
and if you do not value liquidity you really do not understand markets and risk. you may hate BTC but there will be an offer at all times 24/7
have you tried to sell a house recently vs 5 BTC?
You’ve sold all your property? And invested in?
There’s people in Auckland that haven’t paid rates for decades and the council / courts have done nothing.
Its not actually your property, try not paying the rates bill.....
You can make that argument about a car also.
Both beat walking, or sleeping outside in winter.
The shit hasn’t hit the fan yet. In this dire situation where everything goes tits up, who’s buying Bitcoin or gold? Without a buyer, what is the value?
If no one is buying anything, it all comes back to intrinsic value. I don’t think that will happen, but it sounds like many here do. My property is much more useful to me than a bar of gold or a bitcoin. As PDK alluded to, a can of baked beans may be worth more.
From what I can see
Bitcoin needs heaps of money chasing fewer investments to be worth much
And gold needs financial uncertainty but for the supply status quo to be constant
and if you do not value liquidity you really do not understand markets and risk. you may hate BTC but there will be an offer at all times 24/7
You make that sound like a perk, but the more liquid the asset the higher it's propensity to drop in value when there's a serious crisis.
Same thing occurs with gold.
Multiple black swans at once, and an orange swan to boot.
So the overleveraged and banks are going to loose a lot of money. Based on their risky behaviour they can only blame themselves. But chill....we are miles away from the bullets and medicine is the new currency phase.
The banks can never loose long term ...without the banks the RBNZ would be nothing
Banks responding to swaps (rates up) and RBNZ is saying "nothing to see". Looking like they are already there....
So the overleveraged and banks are going to loose a lot of money
Not just them, and I doubt they'll be the worst affected.
Probably anything in NZ, including the NZX, will really struggle.
Other countries that weren’t in a funk before this began may do a bit better.
Most of the countries that have good growth currently are the poorer ones.
They're more likely to be adversely effected by high costs for Petro products.
A quick OECD AI incite because I’m lazy to do proper research:
- OECD Ranking: Based on 2024 economic comparisons (including GDP, inflation, and employment), New Zealand ranked low, ahead of only Turkey, Estonia, Latvia, and Finland.
Well, you didn't define funk. It'd say most of the OECD is in a funk. Nor very well prepared for a turbulent economic future.
We’re particularly funky. Ironically at the hands of the conservatives.
I don't think any government was going to have us having a particular prosperous 3 years. Well, not in a way that'd be half long lived.
Agree, I doubt Labour would have done much different TBH. But I do think the tax cuts were a mistake, if that money had been invested in infrastructure it may have helped a bit.
I don't really agree with tax cuts as we seem to be under taxed. But tax cuts would give an economy a better short term result than an infrastructure spend.
Like drug dealers, they are dedicated to pushing their product.
Trump will continue covfefe
Until he is ready to deploy marines and heli gunships along a 600km strip around the straight and 50km inland, move and you die.
What you need to understand about trump, is his mentality does not allow him to loose
He will take the offshore island early then the airfield on the coast , I suggest once meet with unstoppable force the IRNG will lay down arms, or get mowed down
https://youtu.be/9bl_s9o8guE God has a hardon for the Marines.
God loves the Marines
God has a hardon for the Marines.
So does Trump
Someone like Trump occupies an alternate reality.
Dealing with similar people in private and commercial life, the best approach is to get as far away as possible, as fast as possible.
It's a bit harder when ones controlling one of the most powerful militaries ever.
Donald Trump's
rhetoric regarding
dates back nearly 40 years to the late 1980s. During that period, he frequently advocated for aggressive military action against Iran's oil infrastructure as a response to tensions in the Persian Gulf.
Specific instances of these earlier mentions include:
- 1988 Guardian Interview: Trump explicitly stated his willingness to seize the island, telling a reporter, "One bullet shot at one of our men or ships, and I'd do a number on Kharg Island. I'd go in and take it". He argued that such a move would assert U.S. power and punish Iran for "beating us psychologically".
- 1987 Full-Page Newspaper Ads: Trump spent nearly $95,000 to place open letters in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Boston Globe. While he focused on the broader Persian Gulf, he criticized the U.S. for protecting ships carrying "oil we don't need" for "allies who won't help," calling for those nations to pay for American protection or for the U.S. to take a more forceful stance.
- 1980s Television Appearances: In interviews with hosts like Oprah Winfrey and Rona Barrett, Trump consistently argued that the U.S. was being "laughed at" and should demand a share of the oil wealth from the regions it protected, specifically referencing Kuwait and the broader Gulf energy corridor.
NPR +4
These resurfaced comments from 1988 are often cited by analysts today as a blueprint for his recent 2026 military strategy involving the island.
leopard spots etc
play the man here not the ball
NZ 81/4... needed to play the ball more
You're posting like a teenage girl after 3 shandies.
To many green shoots
God damn Tepuke Thunder.
record posts like this suggest a turning point, NZ economy down ... place your bets BANZAI!
We like to think we can identify a definitive plot point when things are changing.
But there's multiple influences transpiring over long periods of time.
I placed a bet after navigating the GFC. Paying off pretty good so far.
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