Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are changes to report today from BNZ, details here. ICBC also raised its fixed rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ raises some term deposit rates too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
OUTLOOK DOWNGRADED
Ratings agency Fitch has downgraded Kiwibank's credit rating outlook from 'Stable' to 'Negative, while maintaining its core rating as AA. Last week it made the same outlook adjustment for the New Zealand sovereign rating, and that is the main reason the SOE bank has been adjusted.
NO WAY TO MAKE MONEY
Residential investment property is becoming characterised by increasingly low returns, according to our updated review of gross rental yields and cashflows.
FEELING BETTER ABOUT THE JOB MARKET?
The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index rose by 1.8 points to 95.6 in the March quarter, the highest reading since early 2024. A level below 100 indicates that there are more households who are pessimistic about the outlook than those who are optimistic. But most of this survey was completed before the affordability issues. flowing from petrol prices and the war on Iran started ramping up.
DAIRY PRICES SOFTER
The overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered slightly lower prices across the four commodities offered, all down about -3% in USD, marginally less in NZD.
CONWAY POINTS THE FINGER AT GOVT INACTION ON KEY REFORMS
The RBNZ's chief economist says we can’t just rely on monetary policy to sort out our economic problems.. He points out that monetary policy can’t fix cost of living, and that it is the Government's responsibility to make structural reform. Those are required to ensure productivity improves, because that is the only non-inflationary way to raise incomes and living standards.
DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
JET FUEL PRICES CAUSE CUTBACKS
Jetstar has announced it is reducing flights between Australia and New Zealand due to the rising cost of jet fuel as a result of the war in the Middle East. IATA monitoring shows that jet fuel prices are up +130% from a month ago.
NZX50 RISES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.6% so far today. It is heading for a -3.2% weekly drop, and down -1.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +6.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.8% so far today. EBOS, Ryman, Infratil, and F&P Healthcare lead the NZX50 to a strong gain while Serko, Kathmandu, Tourism Holdings, and Tower are the main decliners.
SEEKING BETTER OUTCOMES
The FMA has been working with industry professionals about how savers can get better financial advice. All very laudable (because good financial advice is very valuable). But they didn't address the elephant issue in all this - advisers are mostly paid by the financial industry product providers and so have inherent conflicts of interest. Until this addressed by the FMA, skepticism will spread. They just need to look to the Dutch solution.
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NEW COMCOM CHIEF EXEC
The Commerce Commission has appointed Suzanne Stew as chief executive (from the MBIE) following the departure of long-serving Chief Executive Adrienne Meikle, who left the role at the end of 2025 to lead the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development. These roles operate in the shadow of the public facing profile of the chairman, John Small.
MORE BORROWERS BORROWING LESS
New mortgage lending, other than just a change in loan provider or top-ups, rose strongly again in February, up +16.6% from the same month in 2025. The average value of lending from a change in loan provider eased sharply to $646,000, down from the record high $723,500 in January.. New lending for a purchase averaged $594,600, also a fall from December's record high of $637,700. It makes sense that in a buyers market where house prices are stable or falling, that borrowers are borrowing less for these transactions.
MERCURY BOND RAISE CONFIRMED
Mercury announced an offer of up to $250 mln (including oversubscriptions) of 7 year unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed rate green bonds to institutional investors and New Zealand retail investors. Here is the term sheet. This is part of a general move by corporates to diversify funding options. Lawyers Chapman Tripp says they are seeing bonds pick up as a source of funding, and the decrease in the USPP market has coincided with longer bank terms becoming available. For borrowers with strong credit profiles, conditions are attractive and competition among lenders remains fierce – but reliance on a single funding source or lender relationship creates concentration risk. Exploring alternative sources – including bonds, private credit and diversified bank relationships – may provide flexibility and resilience, they say.
A MARGINAL EASING, BUT STILL HIGH
In Australia, February CPI inflation was reported as 3.7%, a marginal dip from 3.8% in January. Most sub-categories dipped, except the housing category which rose at the rate of 7.2% pa.
SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be sharply lower today. We have seen falls of almost -10 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -5 bps at 2.54% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -10 bps at 4.95%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also down -2 bps at 2.25% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.78, down -8 bps from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -4 bps at 4.83%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.35%.
LESS DEMAND, HIGHER YIELD
We should also note (because we missed reporting it this morning) that the auction for the US Treasury two year Note brought a median yield of 3.87% on notably lower demand. That is up from 3.40% at the equivalent event a month ago. A feature of this maturity is that it has been a a favoured term for non-US investors. Foreign demand for US Treasuries is a critical edge case that moves markets.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED, BUT WANTING TO BELIEVE
The local equity market has risen +1.5% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +2.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Wednesday up +2.8% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +1.0% and Shanghai is up +1.0%. Singapore is up +0.6%. Wall Street had a weakish Tuesday trade with the S&P500 ending down -0.4%.
OIL FALLS AGAIN
American oil prices have fallen -US$4 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$87.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$6 at US$98/bbl. Things are still fluid and confusing in the Persian Gulf, but headlines are more positive.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS (LOW)
There have been very few and very small trades so far today on the secondary market, the price is holding at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD JUMPS
In early Asian trade, gold has jumped back +US$269/oz and now back at US$4595/oz. Silver is +US$6.50 to US$73.50/oz.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday against the USD, now at just on 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62 and down a net -10 bps from yesterday..
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,592 and virtually unchanged from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.8%.
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22 Comments
Is today
The day the Ponzi died?
Did everyone quit their jobs and walk off into the woods naked?
It's been bleeding out for a wee while, hasn't it?
Well, depending on the nature of the underbrush, it was likely to, wasn't it?
The only Ponzi scheme I can see at the moment is Gold.
...it is the Government's responsibility to make structural reform. Those are required to ensure productivity improves, because that is the only non-inflationary way to raise incomes and living standards.
And do politicians ever take this on board? Nope.
It's much easier to encourage property booms.
Yet we been in a massive nominal and REAL property bust, the last 4.5 years.......
Lets roll the bust into the 2030s.
Productive effort/business and younger NZers will be the winners!
Yes our solution for the past 3 decades has been to drop interest rates to increase wealth, instead of increasing productivity. That is why our private debt/GDP has been sky high for nearly 20 years (way up over 100% of GDP).
Amongst all of the property anguish and notoriety there will be some owner occupied households that are no more invested into property than that. Provided that they steadily progress ownership with a P & I mortgage how the market goes up and down is irrelevant, their value will move relatively, more or less pro rata. As a rough guess would wager such ownership is well over 50% of the nations housing stock?
US home sellers are now estimated to outnumber homebuyers by nearly 630k, the largest gap on record with data going back to 2013.
Weaker demand to attributed to still‑high prices and mortgage rates, plus layoffs and elevated economic and political uncertainty, which collectively push marginal buyers to the sidelines.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260323561131/en/There-Are-6300…
Not really surprising - 50% of boomer generation will be dead in the next 10 years. Many still living in 3-4 bedroom homes far to big for their needs.
My street of about 10-12 homes, about 8 of those are widowed women in 70s-80's and will need to downsize in the next 5-10 years. So I think about 75% of the real estate on my street will be on the market in the near future. And when they sell they will be moving into smaller 1-2 bedroom places or retirement homes.
Which they won't be able to afford because they've pushed the prices up.
Better would be to share the bigger houses between 2/3 of them.
Yes. Tomorrow I will settle on a large family home on a reasonable size section, triple garage etc that I'm planning to share with my brother and his wife in retirement. Along with sharing the rates, insurance, energy /broadband bills, maintenance and renovation etc
Easy walking distance to supermarkets, library, banks, restaurants / working men's club, parks, 7d buses etc in a smaller town <30 minutes from chch cbd & airport
Elderly people tend to not be the most flexible in their thinking and quite intolerant to change. I think your suggestion for elderly people to share a home is a recipe for disaster
Macquarie research produced a report today about the impact of AI on banking employment - with focus on the positive business implications like cost cutting and higher profits.
The most likely base case, according to Macquarie, is 18% reduction in jobs, gradual adoption 9% and rapid adoption 30%.
185,000 people employed by the banks - so anywhere from 33,000-56,000 gone if Macquarie is right.
https://thenightly.com.au/business/macquarie-warns-banks-could-replace-…
MORE BORROWERS BORROWING LESS
I got an email from ANZ today offering me a "Reno loan" of up to $50,000 at 2.5%, yes, two point five percent 😳. I don't understand how this loan can be so cheap ?
Some sort of central authority is wanting to promote spending in the trades?
It reminds me in the 1980s courtesy Rogernomics with a mortgage rate at 17% my wife and I sold the car and poured that and all we could into paying it off asap. Imagine the unwelcome surprise then when that effort was nearing completion phone calls and mail from bank in the vein of - oh look at your equity don’t you know how easy it is to borrow, have yourself a holiday in the islands, buy a new car, what are you waiting for, it’s all yours for the taking. Sure got their customers interests at heart haven’t nyhey, not!
Yeah I don't get it either - its for up to 3 years as well and with the OCR at 2.25% and the 3 year swap being way up over 3% (to which they would have to manage the loans interest rate risk against), its seems all a bit strange.
You can get 80 grand at 0% for a purchase of an EV/Solar setup/e bike etc via most banks.
Same sort of principle, use cheap money to drive behaviour.
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