Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news we are starting to see economic bite from Trump's war on Iran. There is corrosion everywhere today.
The OECD's latest economic update says global GDP growth is expected to hold at 2.9% in 2026 before rising slightly to 3.0% in 2027, driven by strong tech investment and easing tariffs. But the ongoing Middle East conflict makes these projections wobbly due to the energy market disruptions. Inflation forecasts were revised upward, with G20 advanced economies facing 4.0% headline inflation in 2026 they say, 1.2 percentage points higher than previously anticipated.
They see American GDP expansion go from +2.0% this year to +1.7% next year. For China, they see a shift from +4.4% in 2026 to 4.3% in 2027. For Japan, it is stable at +0.9% in both years. Their forecast for Australia is +2.3% growth this year, +2.4% next year.
Back in the US, jobless claims dipped last week, but not by as much as seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 2.04 mln people on these benefits, down from 2.07 mln a year ago but up from 1.8 mln two years ago.
Meanwhile the Kansas City Fed March factory survey was positive again in March, for a second consecutive month. The month-on-month indexes were all positive except for new export orders.
The overnight US Treasury 7yr bond auction brought similar results to the earlier 2 and 5 year events - lower offer volumes and much higher yields. This latest 7 year bond had a median yield of 4.19%, up from 3.74% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Bad management brings higher risk premiums.
In China, state-owned China Eastern Airlines said it will buy 101 Airbus aircraft in a deal worth about US$16 bln, extending a run of big-ticket Airbus orders by major Chinese carriers. That will juice up Airbus's 2026 order book sharply.
In Singapore, manufacturing production fell by -0.1% in February from a year ago, reversing the +12.9% surge in January. This February result was the first month of decline since August last year, driven by weaker output across nearly all sectors - except electronics.
Overnight, Norway's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.0%. But they do see a hiking possibility in 2026, a turn from where a cut was more likely.
Global container freight rates rose +5% last week from the prior week, and are also now +5% higher than year ago levels. This latest rise makes these costs up +20% from the end of February. Outbound rates from China were the main driver in these latest rates and the overall index would have been much higher except for the decline in EU to US rates. That trade has shriveled to a -29% year-on-year pullback. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates rose +3% in the past week but are -22% lower than year-ago levels.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.42%, up +9 bps from yesterday at this time and its highest since July 2025. The key 2-10 yield curve is marginally flatter at +44 bps (-1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is steeper at +26 bps (+7 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +72 bps (+9 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 2.27%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.07%, up +15 bps from yesterday. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.76%, up +1 bp.
Wall Street is retreating, with the S&P500 with down -1.5% in sinking trade. Overnight, European equity markets were lower between Frankfurt's -1.6% fall and Paris's -1.0%. Yesterday Tokyo dipped -0.3%. Hong Kong was down -1.9%, and Shanghai fell -1.1%. Singapore was down -0.3%. The ASX200 dipped a minor -0.1%. But the NZX50 rose again, up +0.4% and the best of the markets we follow.
The price of gold will start today down -US$173 from yesterday at US$4383/oz. Silver is down -US$4.50 at US$68/oz.
American oil prices are up +US$4.50 at just over US$94.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$7 at just on US$108/bbl. Ship transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, already low, has dried up again.
The Kiwi dollar is -50 bps lower against the USD from yesterday, now at 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.6 AUc. We are down -50 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are -30 bps lower at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -40 bps at just on 61.6.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,909 and down -3.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%.
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153 Comments
First there was Trump then along came Covid and then came Trump again. Sounds like the foreboding beginning of a doomsday novel that Snoopy might write atop of his kennel doesn’t it. A good dose of the staggers all around made to order.
The world needs younger leaders who aren't trying to take the world to the grave with them.
Instead of you know, that arsehole uncle you've got who abandoned any social graces a few decades ago.
Agree, the problem is the voters are too old. Maybe need a cutoff age. Or make it digital only and hard to use.
Weight votes based on how many years you've got till you hit your countries average lifespan.
That would be the fair thing to do. Maybe not completely linear, you still need some kind of say towards the end and at the start you don’t really know what you want. Maybe you get peak vote about 30 or so.
I'm 100% with you
Interestingly last time I flaunted this exact idea I got hard pushback
But keep that idea in mind - I think that's how society can actually get forward
Forward to what?
Forward to the present
Doesn't really account for wisdom though does it. In my experience working for a rest home organisation decades ago, the sort of person you are doesn't really change through life. If you were an idiot at 20, you are an idiot at 80.
If you are going to exclude people for age, there are several other categories that could also be excluded by various interest groups. Maybe go back to white land owning men? The US Trump party would love to exclude women.
If it were me, I'd exclude anyone believing in the Rapture and have a wealth cut off, above say $10 mil?
Great post.
My partner's mum used to reckon that if sex took more intelligence... we'd eliminate the stupidity.
I told her that had already happened; we'd already played that card :)
Doesn't really account for wisdom though does it.
The way the country has been run for the past few decades seems fairly bereft of wisdom.
Perhaps if our leaders had been older?
The actions of some of our oldest leaders suggests otherwise.
There's an evolutionary theory that societies aren't supposed to be run by old men, and it's certainly looking to be the case.
Is your definition of old John Key, Bill English, Jacinda Adern, Chris Hipkins.......? Maybe someone wearing nappies? (I don't mean adult size)
No Jimbo, the newer generations are coming up and taking over the older voting blocks. The problem is more fundamental than that.
First the young are rarely engaged in the political process, and generally don't have sufficient experience to use what voting power they have to the best. (Remember this is a mass generalisation, not specifics) As they age, gain some life experience, and realise the importance the societal pressures about surviving today has changed their views towards what they vote for. The other side of the coin is what the options are for them to vote for. Left, right or fringe. Many I know will vole for a main party (left or right) because in their words they don't want their vote to be wasted. More than a few argue a vote for the losing party is wasted.
The problem is education and engagement, as well as what is on offer. Democracy has been undermined for generations by the politicians, so voter cynicism is justified to a degree. What should be being discussed is how it can be changed.
the newer generations are coming up and taking over the older voting blocks
But we have an aging population, who have significantly more financial means. The ratio of over 65s is doubled compared to 60 years ago.
So the voter base is more inclined towards retaining that wealth than spending it on the future.
And also oldies have much more time on their hands to choose a party and physically vote.
At least allow online voting. If we can safely manage our bank accounts online (for decades now) I don’t see why voting is impossible.
Are you suggesting they're buying more votes, or that their votes hold more sway?
The voting is or should be anonymous. Education and engagement are a key. But then you're also talking about what the politicians are offering. so in effect you're giving weight to what I said.
Are you suggesting they're buying more votes, or that their votes hold more sway?
I'm saying that the political focus is more aimed at appeasing this demographic.
That's always been the issue Pa1nter, and is one of the points I made.
I don't agree with the age phobia. I think the issue is that almost everyone gets captured by the "conventional wisdom" about how things work. We need someone or a party, the virtual opposite of Trump, who is a disrupter to reshape almost all of the ways things are done. Someone who understands that democracy is about the people, not corporations, banks, businesses, but the people. If the people aren't doing well, then none of the others can be either ultimately.
I don't agree with the age phobia
It's not age phobia. It's human nature for people's wants and desires to cater for their particular station in life, and not be overly cognisant about what anyone else has going on.
So while an old person might have consideration for something like education or future infrastructure, their priorities will lean more heavily towards the needs of their age; pensions, healthcare, that sort of thing (and reverse for someone younger).
We are in a historically rare condition of having such a large demographic of elderly shaping the political environment. That's not finger pointing, just a reality, with consequences.
that's a broad assumption pa1nter. And i disagree with it. it may be true that some or even many are guilty of it, but just as not very one is a labour supporter or a national support, you cannot assume an older person is not prepared or can't put things on their head to ensure everyone benefits.
It is a broad assumption, I am not talking about each and every individual. You seem an open minded and thoughtful individual and if there were more of you in every demographic we wouldnt be in the same predicament.
BUT
I don't think most people are like you.
Sadly I agree with you.
Indeed I manage to piss more than a few off when I challenge their paradigms. But the smart ones enjoy a discussion, and I find that I occasionally learn new perspectives too. I love that.
It's very easy to get attached to our ideas or take things personally. But free and open exchange of ideas helps us get new ideas or evolve old ones.
The ratio of old people we have is fairly unique in history. There have always been old people, 70 or 80 was not out of the question. But there would be only a few in a group, not much of a problem for the group to care for. Thanks to many modern marvels, most of us currently live very long lives. Although it's also very expensive and resource hungry to do that. And even more so when there's less workers, and family are dispersed, smaller, and run off their feet, so you have to outsource aged care to a commercial entity.
This has been very poorly prepared for. And the double whammy is the system was dependent on an ever expanding number of new taxpayers.
the smart ones enjoy a discussion
Sadly I find this lacking in society. More often than not a healthy discussion about politics, policies, accountability of govt, national infrastructure, and energy tends to have many shut down and try and change the subject instead of being willing to have a perfectly lighthearted discussion. Too many snowflakes and not enough thinkers, but we persist and do our best to once again spread the notion that discussion is not hate, and disagreement is a natural and healthy part of the human condition.
Part of me would say we engineer society towards tribalism. If too many of us find common ground, that would become very dangerous.
For instance, if we all bandied together, and boycotted most American tech firms unless the country sorts it's shit out, that would probably do way more than speeches and bullets.
Stop using Google, Netflix, and Microsoft word for a month. Small sacrifice.
So the voter base is more inclined towards retaining that wealth than spending it on the future.
That's an easy generalisation to make.
IMO many older voters share the same cynicism toward politicians and have the same conundrum to balance as younger voters, being which is the least bad option.
It would be interesting to see analysis of trends in subscribed political party membership over the last 50 years. My gut feeling is that there has been a sharp decline.
Those processes of developing party policy and selection of candidates happens way before vote papers are printed. A lack of engagement via party membership is probably where the problem of lack of engagement really lies rather than engagement in actual voting on election day.
So the voter base is more inclined towards retaining that wealth than spending it on the future.
That's an easy generalisation to make.
Yup, because it's generally true.
As above, I suggest it's not true. It might be for the demographic you associate with though. In that case i suggest you find new friends.
As above, I suggest it's not true
Then why is almost every government in debt and pension funds are worth $70 TRILLION DOLLARS
If the love is being shared, someone's charging interest on it.
Nope that's about economics, capitalism and people playing the market. Many invest in those funds to buy a piece of that, but I'd suggest that most of those returns go somewhere other than the ordinary people invested in them.
That's sorta splitting the argument.
Wealth is definitely consolidating into fewer hands.
But also, if older people's collective desire was to put in for everyone's future rather than retain as much as possible, we wouldn't have pension funds lending money to governments for interest. It'd just be handed over.
just give money invested by the public to politicians?! That's naive to the point of stupidity! If there's ever been a group who've demostrated they shouldn't be trusted without strong accountability it's the politicians.
Many younger voters are influenced by their older voting family also
That is true. My dad was a big fan of Rob. At 18 I didn't know what any of the issues were.
The greater uptake of AI tools from the youth could well flip this script, ie they'll be better informed than past youth. Info on demand more appealing than having to take an interest and fully engage with politics
First the young are rarely engaged in the political process, and generally don't have sufficient experience to use what voting power they have to the best.
The view of the best way to vote is entirely subjective and something I'd be skeptical to discuss further for that reason. Different generations have different views based on life experiences and opportunities and therefore the only best I can come to is what is best for the majority over the minority.
The problem is education and engagement, as well as what is on offer. Democracy has been undermined for generations by the politicians, so voter cynicism is justified to a degree.
Interesting point, however it is easy to say it was the politicians, and harder to accept that the voting public has undermined society for decades Murray. Imagine if we hadn't voted away free tertiary education, the support and infrastructure we could afford with the 66% top tax rate, the actual upkeep of maintenance if voters didn't demand unnaturally low rates increases through their prime child-rearing age. It is, as I repeat, very difficult for society to accept we got ourselves into this predicament after being sold an idea of later life that never previously existed, and required some to benefit at the expense of others. We are now simply at the far end of the consequences of these decisions of voters, which stresses the need for greater egalitarian thought and selflessness for the betterment of the many over the few.
Leaders of USA, China, Russia, India, Brazil, Israel, Iran (formerly) all in their twilight years.
Grandad doesn't always know best
Funny how the people standing behind grandad at the podium are in their 40s/50/s.
A weird paternalistic human thing we do. Bring in the robots already
People voted for Trump - twice. You get what you vote for (or in our case we get what America voted for).
This is from a week ago, but sums it up perfectly:
Friday’s press gaggle. Barely exaggerated: at 12:03 PM, President Trump told reporters he wanted a ceasefire with Iran. At 12:05 he declared victory. At 12:07 he announced he was sending Marines. At 12:08 he said no boots on the ground. At 12:11 he said he did not want a ceasefire. At 12:16 he declared victory again. At 12:17 he asked for a ceasefire. At 12:23 he told NATO they were cowards. At 12:29 he said Iran was begging for a ceasefire. At 12:31 he said everything was perfect. At 12:36 he said $500 oil was a good thing. At 12:37 he demanded Iran open Hormuz. At 12:39 he said Hormuz was never closed. At 12:41 he said the US was not at war with Iran. At 12:42 he declared victory in Iran.
Source: https://no01.substack.com/p/march-19-21-god-is-a-comedian
At what point do they consider removing him from office due to dementia?
At:
12.05, 12.08, 12.16, 12.19 and all further points 12.42 included.
:)
XD
Hillarious. Unless you are MAGA of course, then it's gospel from the prophet.
And for some, for the profit
Are we reaching a tipping point when the majority don't believe that the war in Iran is close to being resolved anymore, and that it will drag on with ensuing lasting higher oil prices affecting most of the world ?
I think that was the consensus of people aware of the conflict after a couple weeks.
For me it was day two, hence I bought about a years worth of fuel then.
Aye, it was a no-brainer. We use a Toyota Surf as the forest tractor - it goes through about 1/3 of a tank a year (has a 20-watt PV panel on the bonnet to keep the batteries up, it is used so little). For the first time ever, it is full.
Something like this was ALWAYS going to happen - just what the cascade-trigger would be, or the exact timing, were of course undistinguishable - and many were the politicians, commentators and spin-doctors who used that unknown to assert overarching invalidity.
But there is no going back from this; the pressure is downwards, it had built until something 'gave', and we are now in a 'period of consequences'. Hoarding buys time, but not indefinite time. The question is: What then?
Something else.
But we won't know what things look like till then.
Assuming the violence abates, there will be plenty of fuel. We just won't know what the price is.
"Assuming the violence abates, there will be plenty of fuel."
What do you base that assumption on?
Good question.
Most people have a cranial status-quo bias. Extrapolating recent-past experience, essentially.
We have been conditioned to think in terms of money, not physical stuff and particularly not energy. You cannot reduce 100,000,000 barrels per day to 90,000,000 barrels per day, without reducing the amount of work being done globally. And, given the truncated timeframe, you can't make much of that back up by efficiencies; they have a longer window. Also, decay (entropy) is inexorable, and compound. So even holding station was really going backwards.
Thanks for the link PDK.
Good common sense stuff there.
The price before the war; as someone pointed out the other day, oil was (and still is) very cheap historically, especially compared to gold. And its currently being proven that the oil price would go up if supply didn't meat demand (who would have thought).
"Assuming the violence abates, there will be plenty of fuel."
What do you base that assumption on?
As the cost of oil goes up more expensive methods of extraction becomes viable.
So price is the only consideration in your theory....I'd suggest theres more involved than price....EROEI for a start.
How much energy has been expended in the destruction of infrastructure and how much more will be required to reinstate?
Qatar's LNG plant for example....or the elongated shipping routes, replacement of ammunition ...the list is long and consumes energy (oil)
It is a finite resource remember
It's a finite resource, but there's still lots of it, the cost just increases as you access the harder to access stuff.
And the Middle East provides half the percentage of global supply as it did 50 years ago. So the increased production will be elsewhere.
But it's fairly pivotal for many human activities, and will likely take precedence from a demand perspective. But economies will look fairly different at $200 a barrel compared to $60.
"..the cost just increases as you access the harder to access stuff."
Yes it does, but it increases in terms of energy expended for energy gained.....price (money) is simply a delusion.
We were struggling to supply sufficient energy pre Iran and now we have to expend more to get us back to where we were....that energy required (that was not previously) will have to be removed from some other activity.
'Price' will be a possible rationing mechanism, though some states may choose others.....
We were struggling to supply sufficient energy pre Iran and now we have to expend more to get us back to where we were....that energy required (that was not previously) will have to be removed from some other activity.
Nothing I said precludes that inevitability.
"Assuming the violence abates, there will be plenty of fuel."
And did I follow it up with "and everything else will return back to normal"?
I didnt challenge a statement you had'nt made...I questioned the one you did.
And we both seemingly agreed that obtaining that harder to get fuel will be at the cost of something else.
Overall demand will drop. Who knows, maybe the price will freefall as the global economy can't find equilibrium and demand falls off a cliff.
My far greater concern is the ramifications of increased violence.
Will we be looking forwards to your articles on useful and practical skills for all?
Pa1nter,
You think that's something to boast about? Presumably you still have a shed full of toilet rolls from Covid. If everybody was as 'smart'/ selfish as you, we would already have run out of fuel.
I dont have all the fuel, I just bought it in advance.
And I have a toilet that washes your bum instead of smearing pooh over it with paper.
Pa!nter,
as i thought, a selfish shit.
Uh, the gas station has the fuel. I just bought it at the 4 week ago price. Maybe it won't be there when I need it.
Or is this about the bum cleaning. You can come and use my toilet if you need.
I bought about a years worth of fuel"
So that's why we have a shortage in NZ ;-)
Bit of a Mexican standoff now isn’t it. Iran has been hit hard but are nowhere near broken and their, shall we say trump card the Straits, remains unmoved and potent. How often have the powers overlooked the presence of a narrow stretch of navigable water can be so vital. For instance if Germany after the fall of France in WW2 had brushed aside Spain and seized Gibraltar the choking off of supply to Britain would have been in reach.
Seymour is saying that
All that stuff on the supply side, to the extent we can influence it, has been done
And yet we're burning through 0.4 days' storage every day.
At this rate of demand and supply we'll have depleted our 46 days' storage down to zero by mid July.
Any good reason why we wouldn't at least be doing voluntary rationing already, before we're forced into it?
Leaving it to the market is already failing as truck stops are already running dry
Winter is coming squirrels, how's your acorn supply looking?
Government is crossing their fingers. An overreaction would almost certainly see them outed, so the best option is to hope for the best.
It's a tough ask I know, but they should be acting in our best interest, not their best interest for re-election
What is that best interest though.
Declining fuel usage will coincide with declined economic activity. Jobs, businesses etc. a doodoo sandwich for an already middling economy.
They are crossing their fingers it all goes away.
All Parties - Green included - are part of the current System.
So too are the universities, as constructed.
And the media (my local rag is cover-smothered by one particular retailer).
So looking to any of them to address the future, is fraught.
Not sure but it's their discretion, I'd just hope the coming election is not a factor in making the tough decisions.
Unlikely though
Honestly this lot need to put on their big boy pants and big lady attire and get deciding, or at least face the problem in a way that encourages effective action
Unwillingness to act for the benefit of those whom they are elected to represent is a road to loss of credibility
Diesel is the real problem, and the only real solution is to reduce economic activity. So the two options are: hope the straight opens or we are completely screwed, or kill the economy now and be slightly less screwed if the straight does stay closed.
At least they could tell it like it is so Joe and Jane Bloggs can make good decisions.
Like
We're in a wartime economy because the war in the Middle East has disrupted our supply chains.
Liquid fuel supply will remain disrupted and have less supply than usual for at least the next 3 months, so we need to reduce how much fuel we use to about 60% of normal or we will run out completely.
Everyone needs to think about how they can use less fuel so our country doesn’t run out.
This could mean:
- Walking, biking, or taking public transport where you can
- Sharing rides
- Ordering supplies with your neighbours and only 1 vehicle collects them instead of many
- Travelling less
- Using electric vehicles where available
Every little bit helps, and we need to start doing that today
Or something similar.
You're correct, diesel is the concern. There's probably some efficiencies that we could squeeze out with load consolidation before triage, but triage will be inevitable at this rate
I do very little urban driving, 95% open road and of the 95% probably about 80% rural roads ( sealed and unsealed).
As an experiment I've dropped my cruising speed to 90km/hr, from 100km/hr. So far, after 250km, I've reduced fuel consumption 14%.
Yes, that would be a relatively easy initiative for govt to impliment. Just drop the open road speed limit, even to 80kmph.
No.
'This economy' is screwed, in whole or part. Not 'we'. Don't conflate.
Some are addressing the future: What can I do in response to the Fuel Supply Crisis in Aotearoa New Zealand?
I'd urge everyone here to read that carefully. It's the best (local) effort I've yet seen.
This is really useful. Big change vs BAU though
By "we" I meant the vast majority of us that need jobs etc (actually maybe the vast majority don't work these days, although government handouts would be cut too).
Need jobs, or the services of people that have jobs.
So basically the whole country.
Really, that's not such a difficult choice. You can only deal with information in front of you. The straights are closed, they are likely to remain closed for at least weeks, if they should open it will take months for the supply situation to ease and that is the best case scenario. Better to tap the brake before you reach the cliff.
Agreed.
Govt can either ask people to do their bit now, or they can wait and have it done to them. One will share the problem and bring people along, the other will leave people feeling even more hard done-by
I think they are probably coming to that conclusion. Many believed/hoped Trump was going to end this quickly, I doubt they do anymore.
The lesson from Covid is that significant part of the population, particularly those who voted in the NACT First coalition, are not prepared to make sacrifices for the benefit of society as a whole.
Maybe this will be different - trucks are perhaps more tangible than hypothetical deaths.
"The lesson from Covid is that significant part of the population, particularly those who voted in the NACT First coalition, are not prepared to make sacrifices for the benefit of society as a whole. "
Any evidence for your assertion / opinion / reckons ?
Your comments, this site?
Hahaha. To easy.
I was thinking of events like this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Wellington_protest
Also the fairly significant drop in vaccination rates during and after Covid, reflecting people distrusting or disengaging from society. Thankfully this is now reversing - vaccination rates for children are increasing again. And credit to National for making this a target.
But to be fair, you're right our population was far more cohesive than most countries managed.
Or events like this? The left right thing went out the window once ardern/chippy/bloomfield started ignoring medical advice.
"Thousands of people who took part in Black Lives Matter protests throughout the country yesterday won't have to quarantine for 14 days as some experts have advised, Dr Ashley Bloomfield confirmed today.
Thousands of protestors at Auckland’s Aotea Square and many other outdoor venues across the country marched together to protest the killing of Minneapolis man George Floyd."
https://www.1news.co.nz/2020/06/02/black-lives-matter-protestors-dont-n…
Ask anyone who their immediate priority is. Family, self, then friends. No brainer really. It's about survival.
So when an existential crisis occurs, who do you prioritise? Family, self and friends.
The whole argument is about a bigger picture of what the politicians are selling, and doing.
Reducing fuel use is mainly about self. Many of us could bike / bus / scooter / walk / etc, but we can't be bothered. And there are many trips we could cancel altogether. Although that won't really help our diesel usage (in fact taking the bus could make it worse!), that would require less consumption. And less consumption will break the very fragile economy. So there is no easy solution.
"Ask anyone who their immediate priority is. Family, self, then friends. No brainer really. It's about survival"
Our prophet taught us 2000 years ago that all of these things are secondary. Not primary. And one shouldn't worry about survival. The path to life can be found through the prophets teaching. But that seems to be opposed to your life philosophy.
I miss the Prophet and scrolls. Would love to hear what the 4th scroll holds in the currently tumultuous world.
A key one for this website is that 'no man can serve two masters, money and God'.
How do you make a financial decision (which is the point of this website 'helping people make financial decisions') if you haven't yet decided who is better served, money or the will of God?
99% of people will laugh and say you can't take that too literally - but the more you meditate upon it, the more you realise it is true. 99% of people are slaves to money, but will refuse to admit it. And you can't see things clearly until you are free from being a slave to money, otherwise your mind is based upon greed (the desire for more material wealth).
Our prophet taught us 2000 years ago that all of these things are secondary. Not primary. And one shouldn't worry about survival. The path to life can be found through the prophets teaching. But that seems to be opposed to your life philosophy.
The Bible also says look after your slaves.
Not don't have slaves. Just look after them.
Many of our holy books have much wisdom. But also, some redundant claims. Best bet is don't get too religious.
"Best bet is don't get too religious"
Yes well that has been the common consensus the last few decades, and the more it became common place, the more our society seems to be falling apart at the seams (through lack of common purpose).
Life's always been kinda crappy, that's why we came up with religions.
I definitely agree with you about common purpose. I just think we need something updated including all the extra knowledge we have.
This being a randomized gift that's of more value the more we put in than take out would be a start.
I don't believe all of the bible to be true - it was written in a time before we knew scientific truths and myths and mystery and story telling were all apart of the society and culture of the times (eg walking on water etc, many of the miracles etc).
But that are many timeless principles in there that I do believe to be true - many of which would much benefit our society/world in the current context of hate, greed, fear, and war.
The sermon on the mount has to be one of the greatest teachings humanity can look to for hope of a better future.
You can get most of the better principles elsewhere also.
I have spent a great deal of my life seeking holy men of many denominations. They all seem to have the one true answer, but all of them are still problematic.
There is a core set of principles though that are inescapable.
I agree - I've read the bible, the Quran, the Tao, the Buddhist texts etc.
The golden rule appears to be the common theme.
The golden rule appears to be the common theme.
Rule: You need to know how to read
But we do have purpose. Exponential economic growthism. As dehumanising and environmentally destructive as this new cult is, it has been embraced by evangelicals, and replaced traditional religion in other cases.
Amen
(and they mostly are)
"Our"? Yours maybe, not mine. The man we know as Jesus was as human as you and I and religion is just politics with another cloak. The proof is in the bible itself. I suggest you engage that part of your body that we all got given and use if for the purpose it was designed for, not to just counterbalance the mass at the other end of your torso!
"I suggest you engage that part of your body that we all got given and use if for the purpose it was designed for, not to just counterbalance the mass at the other end of your torso!"
Blessed are those who are persecuted for righteousness' sake, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.
Fire away with whatever insults you wish Murray - I'll turn the other cheek. What other insults would you like to throw?
The way, the truth and the life will catch up with you eventually - and given your age, you don't have long to make peace with your creator.
Easter coming up where we as a society we celebrate 'OUR' prophet. Just after celebrating the birth of 'OUR' prophet at 'Christ'mas in the year 2026 (ie a date system based upon 'OUR' prophet). Or what year do you live in? And do you refuse to take leave at Easter and refuse to give and receive presents at Xmas time? If not, you are a hypocrite - deny somebody is OUR prophet, but then taking part in OUR traditions based solely upon the celebration of that same entity.
You know Easter is a pagan festival they just overlaid with Christianity, right?
I like how you claimed to turn the other cheek but still proceeded to chastise Murray using your own beliefs. Does the Bible reference being disingenuous?
AI Overview
Easter is primarily a Christian holiday celebrating the resurrection of Jesus Christ, not a pagan holiday. While some secular traditions (bunnies, eggs) are adapted from pre-Christian spring fertility symbols and the timing coincides with spring equinox celebrations, the core religious observance is distinct from paganism and focused on Christian theology.
And wasn't chastising Murry with 'my beliefs' - simply stating the reality of the western world where Christianity and Jesus are 'our' prophet (in the same way Islam and Mohamed are for those in other parts of the world). Mohamed nor Buddha are our prophet as western people that form the central part of our culture for the past 2000 years. The belief in the teachings of Jesus are.
That isn't chastising - that is a matter of fact. Denial of this is denial of a core part of what is means to be from what was traditional know to be the west.
If exhorting you to think, use your brain, is an insult, then I seriously feel sorry for you.
while you clearly accuse me of being blasphemous, I'd suggest that is your domain when you refuse to engage your brain about all things and are busy judging others based on what you think they believe.
Anyone still following religion this long after Darwin/Wallace/Lyell - is proof we didn't get sapient enough, fast enough, to forestall the Limits-to-Growth predicament.
Well, most of the monotheist ones anyway.
The ones with multiple deities are generally far more conscious of the interplay between all elements of the universe.
Gosh Pa1nter, I'm in awe!
I may sound like a capitalist bastard at times but I'm a hippie in rags.
"Ask anyone who their immediate priority is. Family, self, then friends. No BRAINER, really"
But you said in your first comment that you didn't use your brain - 'its a no brainer'. ie 'I just view the world this way without using my brain much'. That is what 'no brainer' means. But tell me I should use my brain, but you don't need to use your own to form your own view?
Hence my encouragement to help you think more deeply about this philosophy of life.
Its actually more about instinct, rather than doing lots of complex rumination.
For most people of sound mind their instincts should be good the majority of the time. Extra thinking has a diminishing return, or often be a worse decision.
Trying to save Murray from the trap he set for himself?
So you're choosing to be literal now? "No brainer" really means it doesn't take much thought to understand or realise as it is fairly obvious. It's not a justification to not think, nor a suggestion that I didn't think. As to digging holes, you dug the hole with the "Our prophet" bit.
Plus as you have clearly stated you are a fairly ardent Christian, and from that perspective alone I don't need your help re philosophy thank you. However I do wish you well. Happy Easter.
wtf? delusion is the refuge of cowards
I could envisage some kind of essential workers system for fuel rations, only particular stations, and run by nzdf staff ala miq
Rest forced to dust off the bicycle and ride 30 mins instead of the usual 20mins driving in traffic.
Until the wind arrived today the bike park at Chch Hospital has been much fuller than normal this week, and I got caught in full bike traffic jam heading down Strickland Street the other day. Might be some good that comes out of it from people realising their legs still work perfectly well to carry themselves a few km.
Save on gas, and probably that knee/hip operation too
The real problem is diesel. Maybe ban all diesel cars (not that that will make much of a dent).
No, frame it properly.
The real problem FOR THIS ECONOMY, AS CONSTRUCTED is diesel.
The bigger problem is how to live beyond fossil energy, without drawing-down the biosphere - given that we are 4-8x overshot as a species. Compared to that (a predicament) your posit is just a problem.
The real problem FOR THIS ECONOMY, AS CONSTRUCTED is diesel
True, and I've been saying that for a while now. In many cases there are already alternatives, but we are too stupid to rapidly adopt them.
Even if just that $20 tax cut had been invested in the right areas we could be on the path to a much more self sufficient and renewable energy position.
The EROEI of 'renewables' - really, they're rebuildables - isn't good enough to maintain BAU; not even close.
And none of then are self-renewing.
So not 'sustainable', just less unsustainable, meaning having a flatter glide-path.
Can't see the response from that certain slice of NZ public resembling COVID. It was the wannabe important hard right media celebrities that whipped their audience into a knee jerking saliva splattering frenzy over their self entitlement being curtailed through COVID. Who are these media sources going to cheerlead this time? My guess is you'll only hear crickets, or "we're all in this together"?
Dumb comment mfd. Show us some evidence.
My observation is that it was the ferals who could not adapt.
those who voted in the NACT First coalition, are not prepared to make sacrifices for the benefit of society as a whole.
Not really, everyone had just had enough of the last govt and the list of promises that were not achieved and actually got worse e.g child poverty was growing by the day. Many only voted national as it was all they knew that wasn't labour and didn't even consider any other parties.
Well that's an extremely long bow to draw. And quite insulting really because it infers that only those who voted the alternatives have any concern for wider society. That's patently wrong.
Casting my vote was informed by how I perceived the incumbent served the greater good of NZ. Then weighing what policy initiatives were being proposed across the political spectrum, against my perception of societal interest.
Ultimately I voted for what I concluded was the best compromise available at the time. I really don't think I'm that different from many other voters. I tolerate the imperfect outcome. And I live in hope (perhaps misguided) that politicians with a long view (perhaps an oxymoron) for the future of NZ will emerge.
The lesson from Covid is that significant part of the population, particularly those who voted in the NACT First coalition, are not prepared to make sacrifices for the benefit of society as a whole.
It suggests people voting NACTNZF had some brains and were weary about vaccines rushed to market without adequate testing.
Then-Covid Response Minister Chris Hipkins received advice about the potential risks of a second Covid-19 vaccine dose for teenagers at a time when tens of thousands of them had yet to get a follow-up jab.
The Phase Two report from the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Covid-19 response said the advice was never delivered to ministers, but the Herald has unearthed a Cabinet paper, in Hipkins’ name, from March 2022 that includes the advice in question.
It was from the Covid-19 Vaccine Technical Advisory Group (CV TAG), on December 9, 2021, about workers under 18 covered in vaccine mandates. It raised the possibility of “unnecessary risk” of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart) following a second dose of the Covid vaccine, which the mandates required.
It recommended considering changing the mandated requirements - for the 12-17 age group - from two vaccine doses to one.
The coalition Government is now asking why the advice wasn’t made public, though it is unclear what impact this might have had on those aged 12-17 - or their parents - yet to have a second vaccine dose.
US MANIFEST DESTINY ON STEROIDS - how is this working out for TOOFOO?
This is Ben Norton's take on how the Iran war needs to be seen as a war of self-defence against US-led Western imperialism.
No doubt the resident cosy-club will claim that Norton is a Russian asset, as any source that I quote is automatically deemed to be.
Of course, on the other hand, if I don't provide links/sources etc, I am duly accused of spreading rubbish.
Anyway, that said, here goes, for what it is worth...
At 26:00 - "The U$ wants to recolonise the Global South - to extract wealth from the Global South - to exploit the natural resources of the Global South.
Trump's dream is to return to the Gilded Age of Western hegemony and exploitation that enriches a small handful of billionaire oligarchs like Trump and his friends.
This is what the US Empire would like to do. This is the ultimate goal of all of this, and it is important to see the war against Iran in that larger perspective.
I think the US empire is going to fail. As is always the case with empires, the U$ underestimated its adversary. It believed its own propaganda. It over-extended itself, and out of hubris and arrogance, the US underestimated the ability of Iran to defend itself.
And this is why we see even the mainstream British newspaper, the Guardian, warning that Iran could mark the beginning of the end of the U$ empire.
The reality is that Iran is a massive country that has more than 90 million people, and it actually has a significant military. It has been able to defend itself, unlike Venezuela and Cuba, which are relatively small countries with weak militaries, and they are located so close to the U$ that it makes it very difficult for them to defend themselves.
Iran has been able to defend itself, and Tehran has made it clear that its goal is to expel the U$ military bases from West Asia (the ME), and to push the U$ empire out of this important region.
And this is why it is very important to understand Iran's war of self-defence as an anti-colonial war against U$-led Western imperialism.
Iran is fighting a war of self-defence that was started by the U$ and Israel, just like the national liberation wars we saw in Africa and parts of Asia in the latter half of the 20th century when the people of the Global South were fighting for independence and sovereignty."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Xa_Kahzhic
"Iran is fighting a war of self-defence that was started by the U$ and Israel"
Sounds similar to Ukraines war of self defence against Russian imperialism.
Yup. And Russia was ridding the world of Ukraine Nazis, just as America is freeing us from Sand Nazis.
Creates a problem for Colin, either Russia and America are both justified and good for their warmongering, or both baddies.
Providing links to back up facts you're claiming to be true is fairly important if you want to be believed.
That is something quite different than just copy pasting an opinion from YouTube, which doesn't have to be true, just an opinion.
I don't think anyone would have brought up Russia if you hadn't. The world isn't binary - we don't have to pick being either pro-Russia or pro-USA and fight against the other side of the debate, both are run by crazy or dementia-ridden warmongers at the moment and it's quite coherent to dislike both regimes or simply approach issues from a neutral point of view.
Colin is from an era of significant distrust of Communism. Much of his education was very pro West and anti East.
Upon entering the big wide world, you can learn things that call into question some of what you were taught. You can see falsehoods, and propaganda.
The issue comes from living in a dualistic world where everything is an opposite, big in relation to small, old in relation to young, etc. So it is easy to fall into the trap where if you can determine something to be not entirely true, then the exact opposite must be true.
Authoritarian dictatorships are generally far worse places to be than a social democracy. That does not mean social democracy is without its problems, or the be all and end all. America, China and Russia are all empires that have their own interests first and foremost, and go about annexation and suppression, albeit using different mechanisms.
Oh look, the cosy-club just rocked up - what a surprise - the all-knowing Troika.
Damn kids, what with all their demands of "evidence" before believing something.
lol - it really has little to do with Iran per se and more the supply of oil to China
The Straits of Hormuz closure is the goal, and won't be opening any time soon. I wouldn't be surprised if the US did some "liberation attacks" to block them semi-permanently
Colonisation – maybe. But yes definite parallels with the Ukraine conflict.
This war is (currently) a multiple win-win for the US - and the longer the war the more money to be made.
It supports spending for the US military complex.
Puts pressure on China by reducing it’s oil supplies (both Venezuela and Iran apply to this scenario)
Reduces the influence and puts pressures on various members of the BRIICS community – who are trying to create an alternative to $US trade etc.
Handicap Iran who is a member of the BRIICS by creating a war for them to fight.
Helps Israel by destabilising a 'threatening' country.
Because it's the christian thing to do.
"The Trump administration is negotiating a deal that ties funding for HIV treatment for over a million people in Zambia to access to critical minerals, linking survival to geopolitical leverage."
https://theintellectualistofficial.substack.com/p/us-weighs-making-life…
Meanwhile, the flash points keep building, with two major Russian Baltic Sea oil-exporting ports being attacked by drones, and suspending loading.
The ports, Primorsk and Ust-Luga, are both located in the Russian Leningrad Oblast, a mere 130 and 150 km from St Petersburg.
One big question is, did the drone attacks originate from neighbouring Baltic countries, or did they fly at least 1000km from Ukraine?
Either way, this is a very serious development when NATO's stated objective is to put pressure on Russia, to go after the Russian economy and specifically its energy industry and exports.
https://www.reuters.com/world/blaze-russias-baltic-sea-port-ust-luga-af…
Almost as serious as murdering a bunch of your neighbours because you're led by one more of a string of terrible leaders.
But not quite.
Ukraine have been pretty innovative with long-range drones, or infiltrating to launch shorter range drones. I would suspect this is part of their campaign to disrupt Russian logistics and bring the war home to its citizens. All the more important now that Trump has handed the Russians the double whammy of higher marker prices for oil and removal of the price caps sanctions they had been subjected to.
Yep, if Ukraine doesn't physically sanction Russian oil they'll be receiving Putins windfall in a few weeks time in the form of bombed out hospitals and dead infants.
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