What happened Thursday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; some rate tweaking by ASB, Barfoots March very upbeat, Cotality worried, ANZ card report sees sharp twist, Crown accounts sag, swaps & NZD stable, & more

2nd Apr 26, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB raised its 18 month fixed rate by +10 bps to 4.85% today, aligning it closer to most of its main rivals. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank has raised all it longer TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A STRONG MARCH ...
Strong sales, higher prices for reported for Auckland's largest real estate agency in March. Barfoot & Thompsons says its March sales were the highest they've been for any month in the last five years. But their unsold inventory is at its highest since 2019.

... BUT A VULNERABLE OUTLOOK
Cotality says the housing market faces 'a testing period ahead'. The Middle East war and oil shock is 'throwing an extra layer of uncertainty over everything' for the housing market, they say.

STRONG CAR SALES TOO
There was a surge in EV sales in March. And that drove overall car sales to their best volume level in 29 months.

MORE SPENDING ON FUEL, LESS ON HOSPO
The March edition of ANZ's analysis of their customer's card spending reveals sharp shifts resulting from the Gulf war impacts. Fuel spending was up +29.4% in the month (+20.6% seasonally adjusted), which MBIE price data shows was mostly price, rather than volumes. Spending on public transport jumped +14.2% (4.8% seasonally adjusted). In early signs of other spending having to make way, there was a noticeable fall in hospitality spending and at second-hand goods stores.

DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

SECURITY SUBSIDY
The Government said it will pay more than $20 mln (from the Regional Infrastructure Fund) to Channel Infrastructure to store and additional 90 mln liters (565,000 bbl) of diesel at Marsden Point as a strategic reserve.

OBEGAL GETS WORSE
The Crown Accounts to February recorded a -$7.8 bln OBEGAL deficit (a -$1.3 bln worsening since January), and a +$966 Operating Balance (a +$3.1 bln improvement since January).

NZX50 TURNS DOWN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. It is heading for a -0.7% weekly fall, and down -4.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is still up a net +4.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.0% so far today. EBOS, Ryman, Kiwi Property Group and Property for Industry pushes the NZX50 higher, and Kathmandu, Briscoes, Gentrack and Skellerup weigh on it.

THE LATEST PROFILE UPDATE
We have updated the Briscoes profile (BGP, #30) in our NZX resource with their latest year-end results.

PENALTY CONFIRMED
The High Court has imposed almost a $2.5 mln penalty on the Co-operative Bank for breaching the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act 2003 (CCCFA). The judgment comes after the bank and ComCom entered into a settlement agreement last year and the bank admitted to the breaches.

A SURGE IN GOVERNMENT DEBT RAISING
Today's NZ Government bond tenders didn't go off badly today but they were tame compared some other recent ones, There were 112 bids worth $1.36 bln for the $450 bln offered. The May 2036 had a rare outing. Overall yields rose. This tender event is in the shadow of the recent $850 mln LGFA tender which achieved yield of nearly +100 bps more. And the LGFA was up for another huge €500 mln (NZ$1 bln) which was priced at 3.154% today. Overall LGFA spreads to NZGBs are near all-time lows. (All of this debt raising is within the previously signaled debt programs of the two public agencies. It is just they have each fallen withing a few days of each other recently.)

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GOLD MOVES THE NEEDLE
Australia’s merchandise trade surplus widened to +AU$5.7 in February and more than double the AU$2.6 bln the markets expected. It was their largest trade surplus since July 2025. Exports grew +4.9% while imports fell -3.2%. The biggest factor in these shifts was the trade in gold.

FIRST TAKE
The Trump speech on the US/Israeli war on Iran seems to have disappointed markets. It essentially signaled an escalation. Wall Street was closed when he gave it. The US Treasury 10yr yield rose after it. The oil price rose. The gold flat-lined. The USD rose. The aluminium, price soared, as did sulphur. Naptha (the base of most plastics) is moving in the same upward direction.

A BIG SHAKE
There was a 7.4 earthquake in eastern Indonesia, one that generated a small tsunami.

SWAP RATES DROP
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be sharply lower today on global trend as markets bet on the chances of Trump cutting & running. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.54% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps at 4.93%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.34% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.66, down -12 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -5 bps at 4.73%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.30%.

EQUITIES ALL RISE, EXCEPT IN NZ
The local equity market has risen +0.5% in Thursday trade so far. But the ASX200 has fallen -0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday down -1.3% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -1.0% and Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is down -0.4%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade up +0.7% but that was before the Trump speech.

OIL UP FIRMER
American oil prices have risen +US$1 with the WTI benchmark now at US$104/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at US$106/bbl. This differential is even skinnier today, back to pandemic levels.

CARBON MARKET QUIET
There have been a few smaller transactions so far today on the secondary market, and the price is holding at $41.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed at US$4691/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73/oz.

NZD HANGING IN THERE, JUST
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, at just on 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just over 61.1 and down -10 bps from yesterday..

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$67,160 and down -0.8% from yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at just under +/- 1.7%.

HOLIDAY SCHEDULE
This report will return after the Easter break on Tuesday, April 7, 2026.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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127 Comments

by Palmtree08 | 2nd Apr 26, 4:12pm 1775099543

To those believing the Trump war is some sort of Freemason conspiracy, Sign of end times, Nuke goose chase, or liberation of long suffering Iranians. DJT has a message for you.....

"We could just take their oil."

"Yeah, they want to see it end. If we stayed there, I prefer just to take the oil," Trump said. "We could do it so easily. I would prefer that. But people in the country sort of say: 'Just win. You're winning so big. Just win. Come home.' And I'm OK with that, too, because we have a lot of oil between Venezuela and our oil."

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/watch-live-president-trump-addresses…

by Pa1nter | 2nd Apr 26, 4:29pm 1775100571

We don't need their oil. Other people do, we've done all the hard work they just need to go take it.

I think I've seen enough of this clown show already. Hate can't beat hate, it just creates more hate.

Time to put the phone in a drawer and kick it in the woods.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 2nd Apr 26, 4:42pm 1775101348

I think I've seen enough of this clown show already. Hate can't beat hate, it just creates more hate.

We're on the same plane of thought P.

"If you don't know what you're doing, then your enemy doesn't know what you're doing"

- Don Tzu, The Art of War

by Palmtree08 | 2nd Apr 26, 4:53pm 1775102023

"We don't need their oil",

Yeah, he does need their oil. US energy abundance is smoke and mirrors. Shale is about to hit the production cliff and I'm sure he knows it!

"Oil output from the world's largest producer will fall to about 11.3 million bpd in 2050, from around 13.7 million bpd this year, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy said in its Annual Energy Outlook".

https://www.anrpc.org/news/us-oil-production-to-peak-by-2027-as-shale-b…

1973 #2

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Apr 26, 4:31pm 1775100716

Why, oh why, would you need to grab the oil

if growth is forever?

The US is finished. It'll be a cloudy narrative because folk will focus on Trump. He certainly gave the toboggan a goodly - or is that a badly - shove. But it was already on its way; he'd never have been voted for in 1960-70.

by Palmtree08 | 2nd Apr 26, 4:43pm 1775101398

Trump might speak like a two y.o., but he's smarter than many economics PhDs. He knows the master resource for this bloated human experiment in terraforming.

by Yvil | 2nd Apr 26, 4:54pm 1775102060

"he's (Trump) smarter than many economics PhDs"

It's people believeing this crazy stuff that elect a loser like Trump. I suppose Palmtree believes the tariffs were a great tool for the US ? he believes that Trump ended the war in Ukraine in one week and that he deserves the nobel peace prize. Palmtree probably also believes that the war in Iran was a great success because Trump is so smart. He believes that masked ICE men patrolling the US streets is a sign of intelligence and success. He must think that backing down (TACO) continuously is an outcome of smart decisions... I could go on forever but I won't waste my time anymore

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 4:58pm 1775102330

The main thing is, did he always end up getting what he wanted? If so, perhaps he is smart in a way.

He got enough people to vote for him, the average Joe can’t do that. And many of them still love him now after he’s completely shafted them.

He's smart in a way, just not a good way.

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 5:04pm 1775102687

JJ. If the Iranians crack and are forced to the table Trumpy might just get both top of class prizes ; most bizarre personality ever elected and at the same time, the president who staved off the biggest threat to human existence in our times. I'd vote for the former, I'm a long way from buying the latter.

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 5:10pm 1775103024

This war could end up quite good for the Americans if he can get out of it.

Likewise is there any evidence the tariffs have backfired? Most economists predictions of the tariffs destroying the US so far haven’t eventuated, it looks like a handy revenue stream.

By the way I’m not a Trump fan, but I am still trying to work out whether he’s a clever narcissist that acts dumb, or just a bloody moron.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Apr 26, 5:17pm 1775103454

No, it can't (end up good for America).

Read PT08's post.

They're headlong de-growing because the energy input is receding too fast. And entropy is accelerating.

So whither the USD?

Not up, for certain.

by AN Other | 2nd Apr 26, 5:23pm 1775103824

I'll go with a bloody moron that keeps failing upwards.

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 5:31pm 1775104269

JJ. In the short medium term it could indeed 'end up quite good' for the US. Trumps ejection of Russian/Chinese influence and installation of a puppet government in Venezuela is looking promising for him. Cuba is teetering, one rusty Russian blockade running tanker away from collapse. If his Iranian sucker punch knocks out the Mullahs he can anoint himself as a modern Cyrus the great. Imagine him in a toga wearing a kingly crown.

by mfd | 2nd Apr 26, 6:51pm 1775109101

A toga would at least make life easier for whoever changes his nappies.

by Norm | 2nd Apr 26, 9:06pm 1775117200

What's the strategic importance of Cuba? I don't get it? I did a search and see they have some natural resources, oil, nickel, cobalt, etc. Is it that?

by Let me be Frank | 2nd Apr 26, 9:12pm 1775117555

Rubio

by Norm | 2nd Apr 26, 9:35pm 1775118913

Yes I've read some of Rubio's comments about Cuba, but his comments don't really explain 'why'. Other than regime change, away from communism, surely that cant be the reason the USA is waisting their time on Cuba. Is it purely a distraction?

by Let me be Frank | 2nd Apr 26, 10:11pm 1775121117

Rubios family were refugees from Castros Cuba....its personal.

by Yvil | 2nd Apr 26, 6:20pm 1775107232

"He got enough people to vote for him, the average Joe can’t do that."

That is precisely why he got elected, he only had to beat the very average Jie Biden.

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Apr 26, 5:07pm 1775102852

"I could go on forever but I won't waste my time anymore".

Thanks

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Apr 26, 5:14pm 1775103297

Yvill - you've wasted a good deal of time - by the sounds of it, maybe your main life.

The problem is that most economics PhDs are taught in a very narrow, blinkered way. As such, many folk choose to believe them, indeed treat them as some sort of high priests - because that blindness allows them to tell the fairy-tales those adherents need to hear.

You have used this tactic before - I seem to remember pointing it out. What you are doing is not unlike Trump, interestingly. You are asserting that someone you don't want to be correct, probably believes (not knows, that would invalidate it so believes) something they actually haven't said.

Having mentally associated that person with something you think of as rubbish - but which they didn't say - you have then found a way to mentally demote/diss the person, and what they actually did say.

Dismissal by false association; it's bollocks, in logic terms. But it works for a lot of people - it's just very easy to spot.

by Yvil | 2nd Apr 26, 6:22pm 1775107347

Early long weekend drink PDK?

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 6:45pm 1775108735

Dam I am still an hour away from beersies

by interesting1234 | 2nd Apr 26, 6:51pm 1775109088

I'll have another for you now then. Cheers

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 7:27pm 1775111223

at last just inside that hour, Motueka Pale Ale...

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 6:49pm 1775108941

Isn’t it also blinkered to assume growth is only the product of non-renewable energy? I’d say technology is the biggest driver of growth. If we were still in the stone ages we wouldn’t have had much growth no matter how much oil we burned.

by Rhumline | 2nd Apr 26, 7:22pm 1775110964

Methinks the home brewed gin is strong in this one tonight

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 8:25pm 1775114724

You can't beat $8 a bottle

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hyw4ACYZYPk?feature=share

by Palmtree08 | 2nd Apr 26, 5:23pm 1775103783

Shouldn't put words in my mouth Yvil. I believe nothing of what you said.

What I do believe is that the global economy runs on oil, oil is finite, there is no other energy source as useful to the global economy, Trump understands grabbing remaining resource for himself will keep the United States of Greatness top dog.

Economists seem to think you can exponentially grow the human economy on intermittent energy and sources not yet invented.

One is true, both will collapse Earths life support.

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Apr 26, 5:32pm 1775104333

No one is advocating exponential growth, just some annual growth depending on circumstances. Human population is actually predicted to reduce significantly over the coming centuries.

by spacecadet | 2nd Apr 26, 5:55pm 1775105751

So if "no one is advocating for exponential growth", then who are the people advocating for "just some growth depending on circumstances"? And what is that?

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Apr 26, 6:29pm 1775107796

Everyone that has anything to do with economic planning. Do you think they plan for a thousand years or more?

Growth has enabled us to greatly improve social justice, gender equality, long life expectancy, low infant mortality and things like that. We still have a ways to go so expect a bit more growth in the near future. As for the far future, who knows?

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Apr 26, 6:36pm 1775108208

That's illogical.

Avoiding, but illogical.

I have offspring. And so do they. I feel some obligation to them.

You? If I put myself in my grandkids shoes in, say, 10 years, and I came across your comment - I would likely weep with laughter.

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Apr 26, 6:43pm 1775108615

Let's check back in 10 years.

by spacecadet | 2nd Apr 26, 7:31pm 1775111482

Oh I didn't realize everyone with anything do to with economic planning thinks that growth is not exponential. Perhaps that is the problem? So what percentage would you like the economy to grow by this year? What about next?

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Apr 26, 8:49pm 1775116182

Look, my original argument was with Palmtree08 who stated:

"Economists seem to think you can exponentially grow the human economy on intermittent energy...."

Now let's take out the word exponentially:

"Economists seem to think you can grow the human economy on intermittent energy..."

That's much better. Doesn't have the implication of runaway dynamics which we really don't experience in real life when it comes to normal economies that grow at 1-3%. I understand "exponential" as a mathematical term meaning multiplicative or compounding but the term is too often only being used rhetorically to scare the reader. So, I like to ease reader's concerns by saying, don't worry, it's only mild annual growth. Growth that is rational.

We are probably coming at it from different autistic angles. Yours is mathematical while mine is in regard to conversational English language meaning and usage.

by spacecadet | 2nd Apr 26, 9:42pm 1775119327

"really don't experience in real life when it comes to normal economies that grow at 1-3%.".. you just described an exponential growth rate you clown!

by nnz | 2nd Apr 26, 10:30pm 1775122206

I sense you missed the gist of the point. Either way unnecessary language in a respectful debate.

by spacecadet | 3rd Apr 26, 8:08am 1775156904

Point taken re language.

by Zachary Smith | 3rd Apr 26, 7:45am 1775155526

Using the term is technically correct yet rhetorically risky. Someone has a weak and deceptive argument when using the term in a financial sense. For example, it would certainly attract regulatory scrutiny if a bank were to advertise their term deposit interest rates as exponential.

by Palmtree08 | 3rd Apr 26, 3:00pm 1775181642

"it would certainly attract regulatory scrutiny if a bank were to advertise their term deposit interest rates as exponential"

It might attract scrutiny, but once the definition of exponential growth was understood by said regulators that compounding interest is the perfect example of .......exponential growth, I doubt there could be any complaint.

And yes exponential growth IS scary! It reaches a point over time when it's impacts are completely out of control! We are at this singularity point in time about now! For some reason economics can't process the consequences of an exponential growth curve gone vertical? Is it because of economists tunnel vision concentration on minutiae? Is it an unnatural attraction to mathematical equations totally detached from real world consequences? Maybe it's just religious ferver, to the point nothing exists outside of the box? The box contains the creator, that's all that needs to be known.

by Zachary Smith | 3rd Apr 26, 3:59pm 1775185192

Regulators would be pretty harsh on any bank that tried to use pop‑science catastrophism to hawk their wares. Economists constantly model compounding when it comes to things like interest, inflation, debt and so on. It's very well understood. Your 12 month term deposit at 3.70% is not going to unleash the four horsemen of the apocalypse as it would take around 24 years to double in value once you take tax into account. Even then, inflation would likely result in a negative real return.

People will be kicking themselves that they didn't make a modest investment with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena back in 1472. However, In the real world, not the fantasy world that you imagine, something will come along to counter the dreaded "singularity". War, inflation, recession, disasters, bankruptcy, government tax, profligate heirs and so on.

by Palmtree08 | 3rd Apr 26, 4:55pm 1775188521

No catastrophism involved. Exponential is just a word, with a definition. A definition that covers fundimentalist economic core "best practice", AKA exponential economic growth. I know there's an increasing tendancy to newspeakify language, economics being a goldmine for such anesthetising mental gymnastics. Economic growth is measured ex of inflation. The global economy is 10X larger than 1980. How many planets would be required if it was 10x larger again in 2060?

I better remind you there are actually no other planets!

by Zachary Smith | 3rd Apr 26, 6:02pm 1775192552

Real, inflation‑adjusted, global GDP has grown far less than 10× since 1980. It is hard to exactly calculate it but you are using extremely simplistic thinking here. Also, energy use has only roughly doubled. The primary driver of GDP growth has been population growth and inflation. Actual energy used per unit of GDP has fallen meaning we use energy and materials much more efficiently now. The data shows that things aren't nearly as dire as you claim.

by Let me be Frank | 3rd Apr 26, 6:36pm 1775194605

No..the 'inflation' shows we are unable to create 'more' with less energy....EROEI

by Zachary Smith | 3rd Apr 26, 7:37pm 1775198228

EROEI is a property of energy extraction, not a limit on economic output. In the real world, you know, the one we live in, we are actually producing more things with less energy than we used to. It's quite apparent when you look closely at modern economies.

by Let me be Frank | 3rd Apr 26, 7:47pm 1775198828

EROEI is a measure of the energy required to produce (convert) energy....everything that occurs after that fact is a product.

The fact that we require more energy to produce (convert) energy is reflected in 'inflation'....we are using 'money' to obscure that reality.

by Zachary Smith | 3rd Apr 26, 9:30pm 1775205019

EROEI has little to do with general inflation. It just measures the relatively small energy cost of extracting energy, not the pricing of an entire economy. EROEI has been falling but inflation has as well. If your claim was true, inflation should have been steadily rising over the last 40+ years.

"we are using 'money' to obscure that reality" - that's just nonsense. The data simply doesn't support your claims.

by Palmtree08 | 3rd Apr 26, 10:03pm 1775206986

Interesting "global GDP has grown far less than 10× since 1980"

Global GDP 1980 US$11.3-12 Trillion

Global GDP 2026 US$123.6 Trillion.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-how-global-economic-power-shif…

So you are saying an enormous chunk of that is inflation? Nominal, rather than real? The printers have been busy.

OK, I see the average "real" rate of global growth was 3% over the 45 years between 1980 and 2025, so that means "real" growth led to a global economy 3.8x the size. Extrapolated, by 2050 the real economy will be 7.9x the 1980 size and double todays size. Do you believe this is possible?

To create this growth required a more than doubling of primary energy use from 87 Terawatt hrs to 186 Terrawatt hrs. Do you believe a close to doubling of primary energy use is possible to feed the doubling economy in 15 years?

by Zachary Smith | 4th Apr 26, 8:49am 1775245792

The recent past has revealed that energy use growth isn't proportional to GDP growth. Energy intensity has been falling for decades, a trend that is likely to continue.

by Palmtree08 | 4th Apr 26, 10:26am 1775251584

Morning Zachary. Decoupling? Energy intensity falling? There's certainly a decoupling between the value of a dollar and the amount of energy it will buy. :-)

Energy intensity falling? Why would this trend continue falling into the future? What is falling, is the quality of energy and materials being fed into the system. Current global actors have accelerated this trend. Sure, GDP measures among other things increasing activity for example, of social media influencers and assumes this activity is of equal value to say, cement manufacture, and you could point to this and identify a "decoupling". Social media influencers still need supporting infrastructure and material inputs, even if their method of wealth generation has low material input. What it does point to is a move up Maslows hierarchy of needs. The base remains non fungible core economic activity which can't realistically be decoupled from it's inputs except around the margins and needs to grow with each new individual appearing in the system. The ICE has hit it's efficiency limits. As basic civilisational needs are met, activity shifts to the epherial, which by it's very nature is not energy, or material intensive. The top of Maslows pyramid is the first to disappear once civilisation experiences stress, then it's back to simply providing food and shelter, which directly grows finite inputs with every additional citizen.

by Let me be Frank | 2nd Apr 26, 10:17pm 1775121479

3% growth equates to a doubling time of around 23 years....not exactly 'mild'. Do you think we will be using twice as much oil as today in 2049?

by Zachary Smith | 3rd Apr 26, 8:46am 1775159164

Over the last 20 years NZ's oil use has grown by about 10-15% while GDP has grown by 40-50% so I doubt use will double over a similar period of time going forward.

Oil use growth of around 0.7% a year has an exponential curve that is almost a straight line and it is very likely to be less than that over the next 20 years.

by Let me be Frank | 3rd Apr 26, 9:05am 1775160317

Ignoring the fact that NZ has imported its oil use (in terms of finished goods) over the past 20 years, what you are describing is the disconnect between valuation and output ....those promises to pay require real world resources to be met.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Apr 26, 4:49pm 1775101792

Globally, everyone would be better off with a decades longer retrenchment for the US rather than just a couple of hamfisted thrusts and a disappointing ending.

I don't really think it was a state secret that America already had lots of issues.

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Apr 26, 5:05pm 1775102750

Who said growth was forever?

Human lives, or for that matter, nations, don't last forever. Also, even if "growth" was forever, you may still want to grab oil or any other resource. You're saying, if growth is forever than nothing is desirable, which doesn't make sense.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Apr 26, 5:34pm 1775104447

Everyone who keeps forward betting on 'more'.

That's who said.

Or they wouldn't.

But they do.

by Palmtree08 | 3rd Apr 26, 3:06pm 1775181997

"Who said growth was forever?"

Do you think any current mainstream economists and their political brethren have ever asked themselves that question? The impression I get is an unequivical NO! I've never even heard "we'll just grow a little bit more and then stop when (whatever goal inserted here........)"

by Time Lord | 2nd Apr 26, 5:05pm 1775102753

For the record, you’ve ignored the core of my original post. I stated:

“The US is governed by the invisible hand of freemasonry and permanent institutional power structures that remain constant regardless of who is in the oval office.”

I never claimed this war is specifically a masonic conspiracy theory. You made that leap on your own accord. I simply referenced Albert Pike when providing relevant masonic data.

Btw Trump’s comments on oil is merely optics they don't disprove the existence on an invisible hand. Would you prefer to remain unaware of any potential underlying framework?

by tis i | 2nd Apr 26, 5:40pm 1775104844

The invisible hand. You can see it everywhere.

by Time Lord | 2nd Apr 26, 6:09pm 1775106552

And yet many still don't see it..

by Let me be Frank | 2nd Apr 26, 7:47pm 1775112457

Excepting Trump may decide the tactics (depending upon who he spoke to last)...others have decided the strategy.

by Yvil | 2nd Apr 26, 4:57pm 1775102226

I'm trying to make sense of Trumps' current ramblings...

Apart from "great", "greatest of all time", "we won", "we won like no one has ever won before", "we have totally obliterated Iran, under my great leadership"

Where is he steering the US from here regarding Iran ? Does he flee the fight ? Does he keep bombing Iran ? Does he send troops on the ground ?

He probably doesn't know himself.

by Pa1nter | 2nd Apr 26, 4:51pm 1775101918

He's trying to sell us that he did everyone else a favour by starting a conflict with Iran, and that they've done the lions share of the work. We can either buy oil from the US, or stabilize the straight.

They'll either get bogged down there, or leave and the Asians will do a deal with whoever's left over there for the oil.

by Yvil | 2nd Apr 26, 4:56pm 1775102198

Yes, I get that, but my question was: "Where is he steering the US from here regarding Iran ? Does he flee the fight ? Does he keep bombing Iran ? Does he send troops on the ground ?"

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 5:17pm 1775103450

He’s probably got a dice with those options, he’ll roll it every day to help him choose. Snake eyes is the red button.

by Yvil | 2nd Apr 26, 6:12pm 1775106776

😅 good reply

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 4:54pm 1775102084

“I'm trying to make sense of Trumps' current ramblings...”

Impossible. Even he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. His voters know that he did a good job because he said so and they’d believe anything, he’s basically another religion as ridiculous as any other.

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 4:59pm 1775102347

Yvil. Stop trying, it'll do your head in. He's unreadable. On Iran take your direction cues on military resources being deployed - plenty of air power, modest land forces. Means the key asset bombing degradation campaign continues but the US has limited land occupation intention. Its gonna be a while.

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Apr 26, 5:28pm 1775104106

Watching the B-52s, B-1s and even A-10s landing and taking off at UK airbases has been very interesting. I didn't expect to see A10s flying in from the US. Hops that probably went US - Newfoundland - Greenland - Iceland - England with tanker support.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Apr 26, 5:35pm 1775104507

All using?

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 5:36pm 1775104608

We don't know, please end our suspense by telling us.

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Apr 26, 5:44pm 1775105059

B-1 full afterburner on four engines.

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 6:17pm 1775107020

Woohooo, awesome ! Go team America, freedom isn't free Gary.

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 5:35pm 1775104558

Yep, fascinating eh. Who'da thought a 50yr old aircraft would be playing an important support role in a modern battle. Only possible because of the elimination of Iranian/Iraqi air defence capability. It puzzles me though as to why Russkie and Chinese manpads are not taking the A10s down.

by spacecadet | 2nd Apr 26, 6:02pm 1775106135

The US just handed control of 20% of the worlds oil supply to Iran. China and Russia are for now betting this is not going to end well for the US and they can sit back and wait.

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 6:24pm 1775107461

SpaceC. Yep, you may end up correct but could also go the other way - the US controlling Kharg island and the 80% of Iran's crude output that passes through there. Comrade XI mightn't be all that happy to have to deal with the yanks for the 12% of chinas oil imports it gets from Iran.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Apr 26, 6:39pm 1775108377

Nope.

If that was going to happen, it would have by now. Incoherence atop entropy - they were doomed. The US - with or without Trump - is a dying hegemony, traversing the 'pariah state' phase (where just the attempt to hold, means jettisoning all prior friendships).

They're gone-burgers.

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 7:34pm 1775111648

The phase of decline the US nation may or may not be in is irrelevant to the near term outcome of the tactical battle currently developing, which is the subject being discussed by spacie and me.

by nnz | 2nd Apr 26, 10:40pm 1775122807

Controlling a port gives you the ability to stop Iran exporting their oil, but it doesn't give you the ability to put that oil on ships of your choosing. Iran can just turn the taps off on the mainland and the port has no oil. Of course with enough time and need, Iran simply finds some other way to export their oil, and in the meantime they have (not insignificant) domestic needs sorted.

China can be patient. They have reserves for months and a pipe to Russia they can sip harder on if need be. Iran needs China more than the other way around.

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 5:37pm 1775104650

God loves the Marines

God has a hard on for the Marines

Because they kill everything they see

by Foxglove. | 2nd Apr 26, 6:28pm 1775107737

Good soldiers are not what normal society would recognise as actually being good people to be amongst. Likely summed up best by US airforce general Curtis Le May that the duty is simple in reality, destroy the enemy with minimal damage to oneself. A good soldier is trained to do that and basically the soldiers alongside him or her, are both expectant and reliant of that function being carried out without hesitation. Therefore send in the marines and they will unfailingly comply with their training to follow and enact their orders as given.

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 7:33pm 1775111586

FG. Among the finest fighters of our time. The Japanese fatally underestimated the marines tenacity in the pacific. Having said that, my belief is that given equal resources the Wehrmacht army, particularly the Waffen SS, would have bested them.

by Foxglove. | 2nd Apr 26, 7:59pm 1775113163

Now you cause me to take the liberty of digressing and at length and with apologies.In the eighties I met often an old timer who worked in a customer’s firm in Belgium, who had spent much of his teens working underground in a salt mine under German instruction WW2. He said at one point he hadn’t seen daylight for over a year. Anyway post war his daughter married a German whose grandfather had been a German WW2 general, and with a clean record. The general in general discussion, remarked that there was a vast difference between the German infantry and that of the allies. The German private was not allowed to think beyond his orders whereas, within disciplines, British and American soldiers were able to have a say. He had said further, imagine if you took the Germany army and melted in a giant cauldron it would pour out like a mass of molten lava whereas the opposition, the allies version, would be a mass of bouncing red hot ball bearings. Hadn’t remembered that one for years.

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 9:00pm 1775116840

Excellent reminiscene. Thanks. Yes, I think herr general is right, the allied forces were generally less hidebound than the germans with numerous examples of troops in the field departing from set battle plans and successfully using their initiative. But considering the overwhelming imbalance in resources the germans fought with from 1943 on, they were outstandingly capable. If the salt mine you refer to is the one near Krakow, I've been down it. A vast and astonishing place to visit. A few hours underground was enough for me, I can't begin to imagine what a year would be like.

by Foxglove. | 2nd Apr 26, 9:09pm 1775117391

Two books. George MacDonald Fraser - Quartered Safe Out Here and Guy Sager - The Forgotten Soldier are the best I have read, opposite sides in opposite theatres. Should be compulsory reading for any wannabe soldier.

by redcows | 3rd Apr 26, 9:49am 1775162994

The forgotten soldier is one of my all time favorites. I now have two grandsons 16 yrs old. It's a frightening thought. Europe is such a thin veneer of civilization. As evidenced in Ukraine.

by Foxglove. | 3rd Apr 26, 11:09am 1775167775

Yes indeed and thinking about it a bit more, the author’s experiences and survivorship which he reflected had consequently placed him outside of normal society was likely, from the back of my mind, the genesis of my earlier comment.

by Zachary Smith | 3rd Apr 26, 7:23am 1775154215

Most military historians agree that man‑for‑man, the German soldier, individually and at the small unit level, was generally more tactically effective than any other - "remarkable soldiers, such as we will never see again", according to Michael Reynolds, British major general and historian.

Fast tempo operations, decentralized decision making and junior officer initiative were core principles of the German army in WW2. The IDF are said to follow a very similar doctrine today.

by Yvil | 2nd Apr 26, 6:15pm 1775106929

Well, given that we're commenting on a financial site, it would be good to be able to make sense of Trumps decisions, if if we could conclude that the opposite is most likely to happen. There is a lot of money to be made out of Trumps decisions.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 2nd Apr 26, 4:59pm 1775102375

In early signs of other spending having to make way, there was a noticeable fall in hospitality spending and at second-hand goods stores.

Makes sense with my premise that Aotearoa hospo would eventually get knee capped. As well as the nice to haves in the supermarkets - craft beer, fancy cheeses, etc.

But second-goods stores is interesting. I wouldn't expect that. A used goods chain in Japan, started of as BOOKOFF in 1990 is now a listed company - selling used books. It now has books and comics (including magazines and light novels), CDs and music media, DVDs and Blu‑ray, Video games and game consoles, Trading cards and hobby goods (figures, toys, collectibles), Mobile phones and some digital devices, fashion, luxury goods, appliances, etc.

I visited a massive one of their stores that sold sports gear - pretty much everything you could imagine from winter sports goods (high qlty snowboards), golf, fishing. you name it.

Even tourists go there. https://www.bookoff.co.jp/inbound/

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 5:05pm 1775102700

Japanese cash converters?

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 2nd Apr 26, 5:18pm 1775103510

Completely different really. Look at the link and you will understand the value proposition. I've never seen anything like it anywhere.

by tis i | 2nd Apr 26, 6:25pm 1775107548

Thought it was Friday so mmmmm beer.

Oops.

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 6:45pm 1775108704

Every days a good day.

by interesting1234 | 2nd Apr 26, 6:50pm 1775109037

It's friday somewhere. Crack on

by tis i | 2nd Apr 26, 6:58pm 1775109524

Pretty sure it isn’t?

Cracking on regardless ha.

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 7:06pm 1775109999

Just keep going until it’s Friday, then it was Friday drinks

by tis i | 2nd Apr 26, 7:15pm 1775110547

You know how we know Jesus wasn’t a carpenter?

Cause if he was he’d have turned water into beer.

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 7:36pm 1775111797

Or meth / coke / hookers

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 7:42pm 1775112130

I never believed that virgin birth story.... what not just man up and admit what really took place...

by tis i | 3rd Apr 26, 7:03am 1775152990

A night of infidelity and a lie. A legend born.

by interesting1234 | 3rd Apr 26, 6:44am 1775151896

Then he’d be a Real Estate Agent

by Yvil | 2nd Apr 26, 7:29pm 1775111348

It's Friday at my place, with hell of a good crew. 🍾😉👌

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 7:38pm 1775111910

We doing home made pizza and beer!!!

I roll the base thinner then put Parmesan on the edges and roll back to make home made cheese crust!!!

by Yvil | 2nd Apr 26, 10:36pm 1775122598

Good on you, we're a lot less hungry than you.

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 11:06pm 1775124409

I think in most aspects of Life, my family are more hungry then you Yvil.

by tis i | 3rd Apr 26, 6:59am 1775152779

we're a lot less hungry than you

Oh really…

by Time Lord | 3rd Apr 26, 9:46am 1775162815

The SPQR crowd still up to their old tricks..

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 6:44pm 1775108687

So is Luxon trying to sideline the Bishop? Wouldn’t that just make him more likely to revolt? I suspect he’s not a fan of having to drop the number of new houses we can build every week.

I’d vote for a National party with Bishop in charge. TBH I think he’s probably the best politician around - maybe McAnulty is also in the running as he just allowed me to have a pint this weekend.

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 6:48pm 1775108931

Bishop with Mike Mitchell as dpm

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 6:50pm 1775109003

Stanford would be my pick. But yes Mitchell could be ok.

by MikeM7382 | 2nd Apr 26, 8:24pm 1775114640

I was thinking the same thing. It might backfire on Luxon by hardening the resolve of Bishop and whoever was going to back him.

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 7:22pm 1775110938

It’s all over folks: https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-agents-tell-it-straight-t…

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 7:31pm 1775111484

We are Doomed...

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 7:28pm 1775111336

Now I know why Nationals energy policy is so shit:

Speaking before Question Time, Watts said he is happy to hand the reins back to Brown.

“Minister Brown and I are very close, we talk regularly on a range of portfolio issues. The reality is that he handed over the portfolio to me, I’ve worked through it ... and now I’m handing it back to him. We have a very good relationship and work very well together,” he said.

by Let me be Frank | 2nd Apr 26, 7:35pm 1775111756

"The Government said it will pay more than $20 mln (from the Regional Infrastructure Fund) to Channel Infrastructure to store and additional 90 mln liters (565,000 bbl) of diesel at Marsden Point as a strategic reserve."

Not a bad idea, but is worth understanding that equates to around 9 days typical usage.

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 7:37pm 1775111863

Reminds me of Croc Dundee - that's not a Knife

That's not a strategic Reserve!

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 7:47pm 1775112434

Hey Channel infrastructure, remember how you caused this problem by shutting down the refinery, well here’s $20,000,000 to give us 9 more days.

Why not just chuck a billion barrels out in a paddock somewhere?

by middleman | 2nd Apr 26, 7:53pm 1775112793

JJ. I'm a CHI shareholder and am deeply offended at your flippancy. We long term holders deserve a windfall.

by rolande | 2nd Apr 26, 8:28pm 1775114908

Maybe they should call it a tactical reserve

by IT GUY | 2nd Apr 26, 9:04pm 1775117082

Talk is aussie rations diesel next week

by JimboJones | 2nd Apr 26, 9:25pm 1775118318

I need to get my new freezer stocked before then. Still waiting for Harvey Norman to deliver it

by Palmtree08 | 3rd Apr 26, 3:22pm 1775182956

The horse and cart could be a few days away yet?

by IT GUY | 3rd Apr 26, 4:20pm 1775186456

This is aussie

Cost of living

Restaurants, bars ditch surcharges to stay afloat over Easter

Despite paying fuel levies as high as 30 per cent, some small businesses are keeping prices stable over Easter to attract customers amid rising economic uncertainty.

by interesting1234 | 4th Apr 26, 9:46am 1775249212

Calm before the storm. They're trying to milk the public holiday for as much profit as possible before reality bites.

by IT GUY | 3rd Apr 26, 4:30pm 1775187017

Watch: The March Toward Fully Autonomous Weapons

https://youtu.be/OMDhmX3MFk8?si=VLRBEnK0-w8axRRX