Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB raised its 18 month fixed rate by +10 bps to 4.85% today, aligning it closer to most of its main rivals. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank has raised all it longer TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A STRONG MARCH ...
Strong sales, higher prices for reported for Auckland's largest real estate agency in March. Barfoot & Thompsons says its March sales were the highest they've been for any month in the last five years. But their unsold inventory is at its highest since 2019.
... BUT A VULNERABLE OUTLOOK
Cotality says the housing market faces 'a testing period ahead'. The Middle East war and oil shock is 'throwing an extra layer of uncertainty over everything' for the housing market, they say.
STRONG CAR SALES TOO
There was a surge in EV sales in March. And that drove overall car sales to their best volume level in 29 months.
MORE SPENDING ON FUEL, LESS ON HOSPO
The March edition of ANZ's analysis of their customer's card spending reveals sharp shifts resulting from the Gulf war impacts. Fuel spending was up +29.4% in the month (+20.6% seasonally adjusted), which MBIE price data shows was mostly price, rather than volumes. Spending on public transport jumped +14.2% (4.8% seasonally adjusted). In early signs of other spending having to make way, there was a noticeable fall in hospitality spending and at second-hand goods stores.
DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
SECURITY SUBSIDY
The Government said it will pay more than $20 mln (from the Regional Infrastructure Fund) to Channel Infrastructure to store and additional 90 mln liters (565,000 bbl) of diesel at Marsden Point as a strategic reserve.
OBEGAL GETS WORSE
The Crown Accounts to February recorded a -$7.8 bln OBEGAL deficit (a -$1.3 bln worsening since January), and a +$966 Operating Balance (a +$3.1 bln improvement since January).
NZX50 TURNS DOWN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. It is heading for a -0.7% weekly fall, and down -4.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is still up a net +4.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.0% so far today. EBOS, Ryman, Kiwi Property Group and Property for Industry pushes the NZX50 higher, and Kathmandu, Briscoes, Gentrack and Skellerup weigh on it.
THE LATEST PROFILE UPDATE
We have updated the Briscoes profile (BGP, #30) in our NZX resource with their latest year-end results.
PENALTY CONFIRMED
The High Court has imposed almost a $2.5 mln penalty on the Co-operative Bank for breaching the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act 2003 (CCCFA). The judgment comes after the bank and ComCom entered into a settlement agreement last year and the bank admitted to the breaches.
A SURGE IN GOVERNMENT DEBT RAISING
Today's NZ Government bond tenders didn't go off badly today but they were tame compared some other recent ones, There were 112 bids worth $1.36 bln for the $450 bln offered. The May 2036 had a rare outing. Overall yields rose. This tender event is in the shadow of the recent $850 mln LGFA tender which achieved yield of nearly +100 bps more. And the LGFA was up for another huge €500 mln (NZ$1 bln) which was priced at 3.154% today. Overall LGFA spreads to NZGBs are near all-time lows. (All of this debt raising is within the previously signaled debt programs of the two public agencies. It is just they have each fallen withing a few days of each other recently.)
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GOLD MOVES THE NEEDLE
Australia’s merchandise trade surplus widened to +AU$5.7 in February and more than double the AU$2.6 bln the markets expected. It was their largest trade surplus since July 2025. Exports grew +4.9% while imports fell -3.2%. The biggest factor in these shifts was the trade in gold.
FIRST TAKE
The Trump speech on the US/Israeli war on Iran seems to have disappointed markets. It essentially signaled an escalation. Wall Street was closed when he gave it. The US Treasury 10yr yield rose after it. The oil price rose. The gold flat-lined. The USD rose. The aluminium, price soared, as did sulphur. Naptha (the base of most plastics) is moving in the same upward direction.
A BIG SHAKE
There was a 7.4 earthquake in eastern Indonesia, one that generated a small tsunami.
SWAP RATES DROP
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be sharply lower today on global trend as markets bet on the chances of Trump cutting & running. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.54% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps at 4.93%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.34% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.66, down -12 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -5 bps at 4.73%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.30%.
EQUITIES ALL RISE, EXCEPT IN NZ
The local equity market has risen +0.5% in Thursday trade so far. But the ASX200 has fallen -0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday down -1.3% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -1.0% and Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is down -0.4%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade up +0.7% but that was before the Trump speech.
OIL UP FIRMER
American oil prices have risen +US$1 with the WTI benchmark now at US$104/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at US$106/bbl. This differential is even skinnier today, back to pandemic levels.
CARBON MARKET QUIET
There have been a few smaller transactions so far today on the secondary market, and the price is holding at $41.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed at US$4691/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73/oz.
NZD HANGING IN THERE, JUST
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, at just on 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just over 61.1 and down -10 bps from yesterday..
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$67,160 and down -0.8% from yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at just under +/- 1.7%.
HOLIDAY SCHEDULE
This report will return after the Easter break on Tuesday, April 7, 2026.
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44 Comments
To those believing the Trump war is some sort of Freemason conspiracy, Sign of end times, Nuke goose chase, or liberation of long suffering Iranians. DJT has a message for you.....
"We could just take their oil."
"Yeah, they want to see it end. If we stayed there, I prefer just to take the oil," Trump said. "We could do it so easily. I would prefer that. But people in the country sort of say: 'Just win. You're winning so big. Just win. Come home.' And I'm OK with that, too, because we have a lot of oil between Venezuela and our oil."
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/watch-live-president-trump-addresses…
We don't need their oil. Other people do, we've done all the hard work they just need to go take it.
I think I've seen enough of this clown show already. Hate can't beat hate, it just creates more hate.
Time to put the phone in a drawer and kick it in the woods.
I think I've seen enough of this clown show already. Hate can't beat hate, it just creates more hate.
We're on the same plane of thought P.
"If you don't know what you're doing, then your enemy doesn't know what you're doing"
- Don Tzu, The Art of War
"We don't need their oil",
Yeah, he does need their oil. US energy abundance is smoke and mirrors. Shale is about to hit the production cliff and I'm sure he knows it!
"Oil output from the world's largest producer will fall to about 11.3 million bpd in 2050, from around 13.7 million bpd this year, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy said in its Annual Energy Outlook".
https://www.anrpc.org/news/us-oil-production-to-peak-by-2027-as-shale-b…
1973 #2
Why, oh why, would you need to grab the oil
if growth is forever?
The US is finished. It'll be a cloudy narrative because folk will focus on Trump. He certainly gave the toboggan a goodly - or is that a badly - shove. But it was already on its way; he'd never have been voted for in 1960-70.
Trump might speak like a two y.o., but he's smarter than many economics PhDs. He knows the master resource for this bloated human experiment in terraforming.
"he's (Trump) smarter than many economics PhDs"
It's people believeing this crazy stuff that elect a loser like Trump. I suppose Palmtree believes the tariffs were a great tool for the US ? he believes that Trump ended the war in Ukraine in one week and that he deserves the nobel peace prize. Palmtree probably also believes that the war in Iran was a great success because Trump is so smart. He believes that masked ICE men patrolling the US streets is a sign of intelligence and success. He must think that backing down (TACO) continuously is an outcome of smart decisions... I could go on forever but I won't waste my time anymore
The main thing is, did he always end up getting what he wanted? If so, perhaps he is smart in a way.
He got enough people to vote for him, the average Joe can’t do that. And many of them still love him now after he’s completely shafted them.
He's smart in a way, just not a good way.
JJ. If the Iranians crack and are forced to the table Trumpy might just get both top of class prizes ; most bizarre personality ever elected and at the same time, the president who staved off the biggest threat to human existence in our times. I'd vote for the former, I'm a long way from buying the latter.
This war could end up quite good for the Americans if he can get out of it.
Likewise is there any evidence the tariffs have backfired? Most economists predictions of the tariffs destroying the US so far haven’t eventuated, it looks like a handy revenue stream.
By the way I’m not a Trump fan, but I am still trying to work out whether he’s a clever narcissist that acts dumb, or just a bloody moron.
No, it can't (end up good for America).
Read PT08's post.
They're headlong de-growing because the energy input is receding too fast. And entropy is accelerating.
So whither the USD?
Not up, for certain.
I'll go with a bloody moron that keeps failing upwards.
JJ. In the short medium term it could indeed 'end up quite good' for the US. Trumps ejection of Russian/Chinese influence and installation of a puppet government in Venezuela is looking promising for him. Cuba is teetering, one rusty Russian blockade running tanker away from collapse. If his Iranian sucker punch knocks out the Mullahs he can anoint himself as a modern Cyrus the great. Imagine him in a toga wearing a kingly crown.
"I could go on forever but I won't waste my time anymore".
Thanks
Yvill - you've wasted a good deal of time - by the sounds of it, maybe your main life.
The problem is that most economics PhDs are taught in a very narrow, blinkered way. As such, many folk choose to believe them, indeed treat them as some sort of high priests - because that blindness allows them to tell the fairy-tales those adherents need to hear.
You have used this tactic before - I seem to remember pointing it out. What you are doing is not unlike Trump, interestingly. You are asserting that someone you don't want to be correct, probably believes (not knows, that would invalidate it so believes) something they actually haven't said.
Having mentally associated that person with something you think of as rubbish - but which they didn't say - you have then found a way to mentally demote/diss the person, and what they actually did say.
Dismissal by false association; it's bollocks, in logic terms. But it works for a lot of people - it's just very easy to spot.
Shouldn't put words in my mouth Yvil. I believe nothing of what you said.
What I do believe is that the global economy runs on oil, oil is finite, there is no other energy source as useful to the global economy, Trump understands grabbing remaining resource for himself will keep the United States of Greatness top dog.
Economists seem to think you can exponentially grow the human economy on intermittent energy and sources not yet invented.
One is true, both will collapse Earths life support.
No one is advocating exponential growth, just some annual growth depending on circumstances. Human population is actually predicted to reduce significantly over the coming centuries.
So if "no one is advocating for exponential growth", then who are the people advocating for "just some growth depending on circumstances"? And what is that?
Everyone that has anything to do with economic planning. Do you think they plan for a thousand years or more?
Globally, everyone would be better off with a decades longer retrenchment for the US rather than just a couple of hamfisted thrusts and a disappointing ending.
I don't really think it was a state secret that America already had lots of issues.
Who said growth was forever?
Human lives, or for that matter, nations, don't last forever. Also, even if "growth" was forever, you may still want to grab oil or any other resource. You're saying, if growth is forever than nothing is desirable, which doesn't make sense.
Everyone who keeps forward betting on 'more'.
That's who said.
Or they wouldn't.
But they do.
For the record, you’ve ignored the core of my original post. I stated:
“The US is governed by the invisible hand of freemasonry and permanent institutional power structures that remain constant regardless of who is in the oval office.”
I never claimed this war is specifically a masonic conspiracy theory. You made that leap on your own accord. I simply referenced Albert Pike when providing relevant masonic data.
Btw Trump’s comments on oil is merely optics they don't disprove the existence on an invisible hand. Would you prefer to remain unaware of any potential underlying framework?
I'm trying to make sense of Trumps' current ramblings...
Apart from "great", "greatest of all time", "we won", "we won like no one has ever won before", "we have totally obliterated Iran, under my great leadership"
Where is he steering the US from here regarding Iran ? Does he flee the fight ? Does he keep bombing Iran ? Does he send troops on the ground ?
He probably doesn't know himself.
He's trying to sell us that he did everyone else a favour by starting a conflict with Iran, and that they've done the lions share of the work. We can either buy oil from the US, or stabilize the straight.
They'll either get bogged down there, or leave and the Asians will do a deal with whoever's left over there for the oil.
Yes, I get that, but my question was: "Where is he steering the US from here regarding Iran ? Does he flee the fight ? Does he keep bombing Iran ? Does he send troops on the ground ?"
He’s probably got a dice with those options, he’ll roll it every day to help him choose. Snake eyes is the red button.
😅 good reply
“I'm trying to make sense of Trumps' current ramblings...”
Impossible. Even he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. His voters know that he did a good job because he said so and they’d believe anything, he’s basically another religion as ridiculous as any other.
Yvil. Stop trying, it'll do your head in. He's unreadable. On Iran take your direction cues on military resources being deployed - plenty of air power, modest land forces. Means the key asset bombing degradation campaign continues but the US has limited land occupation intention. Its gonna be a while.
Watching the B-52s, B-1s and even A-10s landing and taking off at UK airbases has been very interesting. I didn't expect to see A10s flying in from the US. Hops that probably went US - Newfoundland - Greenland - Iceland - England with tanker support.
All using?
We don't know, please end our suspense by telling us.
Woohooo, awesome ! Go team America, freedom isn't free Gary.
Yep, fascinating eh. Who'da thought a 50yr old aircraft would be playing an important support role in a modern battle. Only possible because of the elimination of Iranian/Iraqi air defence capability. It puzzles me though as to why Russkie and Chinese manpads are not taking the A10s down.
The US just handed control of 20% of the worlds oil supply to Iran. China and Russia are for now betting this is not going to end well for the US and they can sit back and wait.
God loves the Marines
God has a hard on for the Marines
Because they kill everything they see
Well, given that we're commenting on a financial site, it would be good to be able to make sense of Trumps decisions, if if we could conclude that the opposite is most likely to happen. There is a lot of money to be made out of Trumps decisions.
In early signs of other spending having to make way, there was a noticeable fall in hospitality spending and at second-hand goods stores.
Makes sense with my premise that Aotearoa hospo would eventually get knee capped. As well as the nice to haves in the supermarkets - craft beer, fancy cheeses, etc.
But second-goods stores is interesting. I wouldn't expect that. A used goods chain in Japan, started of as BOOKOFF in 1990 is now a listed company - selling used books. It now has books and comics (including magazines and light novels), CDs and music media, DVDs and Blu‑ray, Video games and game consoles, Trading cards and hobby goods (figures, toys, collectibles), Mobile phones and some digital devices, fashion, luxury goods, appliances, etc.
I visited a massive one of their stores that sold sports gear - pretty much everything you could imagine from winter sports goods (high qlty snowboards), golf, fishing. you name it.
Even tourists go there. https://www.bookoff.co.jp/inbound/
Japanese cash converters?
Completely different really. Look at the link and you will understand the value proposition. I've never seen anything like it anywhere.
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