Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RENTS UPDATE
Rents in the North Island and South Island are moving in opposite directions. Average national asking rents on Realestate.co.nz was down -$25 a week in March from two years ago levels.
UP NEAR A RECORD
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose +4.1% in March from February. The Middle East conflict, which broke out at the end of February, drove many commodity prices higher in March. This is the second-highest month on record for the index in world price terms. Only March 2022 was higher, at the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
ADJUSTED LOWER
As at March 2026, StatsNZ says there are now 2,117,500 private dwellings. This data is after revisions both from the 2023 Census, and an error they had in their data assumptions. That means the previously reported December 2025 number of private dwellings were adjusted down by 30,500. As at March 2026. 65.5% were owner-occupied. (They also say there were 2,064,700 households at March 2026. Which implies there were 52,800 unoccupied dwellings, likely all holiday homes.)
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Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
PRICE CUTS COMING FOR LIVESTOCK FARMERS
Prime Range Meats is saying market demand across China and Taiwan remains firm, with solid enquiry levels for both lamb and beef products. However, activity in other markets has softened amid the uncertainty created by the ongoing conflict in Iran, which is weighing on broader global demand. At the same time, costs are beginning to rise, driven primarily by higher fuel prices flowing through supply chains increasing freight, processing, and input costs across the whole sector. Silver Fern Farms has already started trimming its schedule, partly seasonal. 'Savings' will all be at the expense of livestock suppliers.
FUEL UPDATE
This is the latest update on the fuel situation from MBIE. There will be another update released tomorrow.
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 27.2 | 17.5 | 25.5 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 4 | 3.2 | 8.2 | 1.2 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 12 | 31.5 | 25.8 | 23.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 29.3 | 21.6 | 22.1 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 6 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 11.4 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 10 | 25.1 | 22.2 | 12.6 |
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 | |
| previously reported | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel | |
| In-country | 27.9 | 21.7 | 25.3 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 5 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 10 | 18.9 | 26.7 | 23.1 |
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 | |
| previously reported | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel | |
| In-country | 24.5 | 18.1 | 20.1 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 19.8 | 15.8 | 11.7 | |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 4.3 | 12.5 | 21.6 | |
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION BET
Markets are betting that the US-Iran war will wind down soon, and now bravely pricing in a relief rally. But it is just guessing that Trump will actually chicken out. And time is almost up. The relief rally may turn to its opposite.
NZX50 TURNS DOWN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.2% so far today. It is heading for a -+1.0% weekly rise, and down -3.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +10.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +2.8% so far today. AirNZ, Skellerup, Vulcan Steel, and Stride Property lead the NZX50 to the strong gain, but Kathmandu, Napier Port, Sanford, and Vista Group top the decliners.
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PRESSURE RISING
The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain pressure index is rising, with the March result its highest since January 2023, although to be fair, so far the rises from May 2023 have all be quite gradual.
SEVEN MONTHS IN A ROW & THE LATEST IS THE BIGGEST
In Australian, their Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a significant jump in monthly inflation for March, up +1.3% from February. This was primarily influenced by an increase in transport, attributable to surging fuel prices. In annual terms, headline inflation reached +4.3% and has been at above the top-end of the 2–3% RBA target band for the past seven months. The monthly cost of living also increased in March, particularly for self-funded retirees.
JERKING INTO CONTRACTION
The Australian service sector fell into contraction in March. It was a sharp fall from the February expansion. A drop in new orders and turbulent international conditions as a result of the war in the Middle East were the main reasons behind the fall in output. Making it hurt harder, inflationary pressures intensified.
SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be slightly lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.47% last Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 5.00%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.43% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74, down -2 bps from this morning. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +12 bps at 4.73%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.35%.
EQUITIES RISE IN NZ, AU
The local equity market has risen +1.3% in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +1.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Tuesday dipping -0.2% in its opening trade. Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed for a holiday. Singapore is down -0.3%. Wall Street ended its Monday trade up +0.4%.
US OIL UP FURTHER, BRENT HOLDS
American oil prices have risen another +US$1 from this morning with the WTI benchmark now at US$115/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at US$111/bbl.
CARBON MARKET QUIET
We are struggling to find transactions so far today on the secondary market, so that is the only reason the price is holding at $41.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed at US$4650/oz, down -US$2 from this morning. Silver is down -50 USc at just on US$72.50/oz.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this morning against the USD, at just on 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 49.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.8 and down -20 bps from yesterday..
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$68,613 and down -1.4% from this morning's open. Volatility has remained modest at just under +/- 1.5%.
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7 Comments
Housing Australia says 48,000 non-citizen migrant are eligible for the first homebuyer 5% deposit scheme. Aussie taxpayers are funding homes for non-citizens. Naturally, social media is abuzz with opposition and frustration.
I'm guessing that there will be more than a few Aotearoans taking up the offer: those with residence who have not taken full citizenship yet. The following quote suggests that some people taking advantage don't have permanent residence yet.
“Hi everyone, we’re expecting to receive our Subclass 191 PR soon,” an anonymous user posted in the Property Forum Australia Facebook group.
“We currently have around $200,000 in savings and are both working full-time with a combined annual income of about $180,000. Our plan is to first purchase a new home using the First Homeowner Grant, and then, 3-6 months later, but an investment property. We just wanted to check whether this strategy is realistic and achievable with our current income and savings.”
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/housing-australia-sa…
Privy to some interesting retail data out of Aussie. Consumers have run out of patience - and the data backs it up. My colleague has run the numbers.
At the mass-market level, the picture is alarming. Research captures not only where one in four consumers will spend, but the price at which the majority of Aussies are comfortable. That threshold – 55-63% of consumers willing to pay - sits dramatically below the current shelf across virtually every category:
Coke at $4.20 RRP? 59% of Australians are comfortable at $3.00.
Tim Tams at $6.00? 56% are comfortable at $4.00.
Nescafé at $14.50? 37.5% are comfortable at $11.00.
Big Mac at $7.90? 54.5% are comfortable at $6.00.
These are not edge-case bargain hunters. These are the mainstream. The majority. The people who make up the volume of supermarket spend. Right now, they are transacting - some of them - at prices they do not believe are fair, held in place only by habit, brand loyalty, or lack of an acceptable alternative.
(1) NZ Herald Live: Christopher Luxon holds post-Cabinet press conference - YouTube
Pathetic.
Let's double down on doubling-times in these troubling times.
Translated - I haven't learned anything. Can't learn anything. And most importantly, don't want to learn anything.
Growth, growth, growth, grrooooopsy.
Apropos of Easter then anyone who calls him a bunny has seen a few? The thing is though, hardly the only one. Perhaps the popular name for the parliamentary quarters should be changed from hive to hutch?
When people de-humanise others, it is time to sit up and notice.
There is a docco of a Palestinian female reporter - if she turned up at a barrier in trad garb, the Israeli soldiers seriously couldn't see her; she really didn't exist to them and if she talked to them, they ignored/didn't hear.
Then she went in western dress. Absolutely recognised, and when she told them to apply first-aid to someone they'd shot, they obeyed. Was amazing to watch the footage back-to-back.
Trump let go that 'they are animals'. First sign of 'otherising' (they're not human, therefore what I'm doing cannot be murder). It is dangerous territory, made worse by the Hegseth purges of anyone sane in the Forces, and Trump's of anyone daring to have a POV in his circles.
I thought this was just a curtain-raiser - a taste of what is to come. Not so sure, now, that it isn't Act One of a perhaps-short play. Hard to see a way out - even nuking Iran's 90 million into oblivion doesn't solve the US predicament. The unasked question - given the sudden and universal panic when the tap threatens to be shut off - is: What are their plans when it isn't available permanently?
There aren't any.
A paucity of intellect. Won't be the only poor city when this is all over.
"Public servants are now paid $17,600 more a year than people in the private sector, and every single government department has a higher average salary than private-sector New Zealanders.
Between 2020 and 2025, departments' average salaries rose 21.37 percent, almost fifty percent more than the 14.49 percent growth in the private sector over the same period."
...& National have maintained "nothing to see here" since their 2023 election promise to deal to Labours 6 yr, approx 18000 / 40% / $2Billion pa public servant increase with no significant improvement in services.
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