Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB raised its one year TD rate to 3.90%, a market-leading level. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
CONSTRUCTION COSTS RISE
Residential construction costs are on the rise as building activity picks up modestly. They were rising even before the latest fuel price hikes kicked in, according to the Cordell Construction Cost Index
RISING FROM PULSE, FALLING FROM THE LAST GDT
The overnight dairy auction brought a headline decline of -3.4% in USD terms, but that is only a -0.8% in NZD terms. But actually things were better than this because these changes are from the prior full auction result three weeks ago. Today's results area actually gains from last week's dairy Pulse events for most items, including both SMP and WMP. The big drop however came for butter (-8.1%) and Mozzarella (-6.2%), both items that don't feature at the Pulse events. So, overall, today's dairy event is really one where prices have stabilised over the past few weeks. This is so, even though global dairy markets seem well-supplied from many sources.
ANZ SEES HIGHER PAYOUT
ANZ has raised its current season payout forecast to $9.85/kgMS, which is now the highest of the bank analysts.
DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
ON HOLD. NERVOUS ABOUT INFLATION
As expected, the RBNZ held its OCR unchanged at 2.25% in today's review, but warns of possible 'decisive' action in future. They forecast annual inflation will spike to 4.2% in the June quarter and warns that medium-term inflationary pressure will depend on the extent to which higher costs influence price and wage-setting behaviour by firms and workers in the economy.
NZX50 JUMPS AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.6% so far today. It is heading for a +4.2% weekly rise, and down -2.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +11.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up another +1.9% so far today. Also higher are Freightways, AirNZ, Stride, and Auckland Airport strength; weakness are seen in Turners, Heartland, Kathmandu and Channel Infrastructure.
SOCIAL SCAM MEDIA
The FMA is warning consumers about an increasing number of scams using fake news articles featuring prominent politicians and business leaders to entice consumers to invest in fake trading platforms. Being used are in this way are The current wave features clickbait headlines claiming to have information that authorities don’t want revealed. Individuals impersonated using deepfakes include Winston Peters, Kiwibank CEO Steve Jurkovich, and Westpac NZ CEO Catherine McGrath. "But the scammers continuously switch the identities they’re impersonating, so stories may still be fake if they feature a different individual,” they warn. Meta/Facebook is the preferred way to deliver such scams, mainly because Meta is reluctant to take them down - although they do when officials press.
FUEL UPDATE
This is the latest update on the fuel situation from MBIE. There will be another update released on Monday.
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 28.3 | 23.7 | 27.9 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 12 | 33.0 | 25.7 | 25.2 |
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 27.2 | 17.5 | 25.5 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 4 | 3.2 | 8.2 | 1.2 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 12 | 31.5 | 25.8 | 23.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 29.3 | 21.6 | 22.1 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 6 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 11.4 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 10 | 25.1 | 22.2 | 12.6 |
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 | |
| previously reported | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel | |
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 | |
| previously reported | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel | |
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
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NEWCOMER BUYING LOCK FINANCE
Runway, a new non-bank lender which features ex-ASB Head of Capital Markets & Advisory Paul Booth and former Infratil and Telecom executive Marko Bogoievski, says it's buying invoice and receivables finance specialist Lock Finance. Runway says the deal gives it an established operating platform, an existing loan book, long-standing broker and customer relationships, and deep working-capital expertise. Lock Finance’s Peter Goodfellow is "reinvesting alongside the founders of Runway."
TACO, GIANT MESSY EDITION
Without evidence, Trump has claimed Iran has backed down and will ceasefire "for two weeks". Ships are likely to pass through the Strait of Hormuz now, after paying Iran's toll (they say these will be used to reconstruct their infrastructure). Nothing else seems agreed. Israel and Iran are still exchanging missile attacks. The overall situation is now worse than six weeks ago when this crisis was first stage managed. Certainly the inflation pressures they delivered will linger for years. But there is a substantial short-term relief rally underway now in most financial markets.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be modestly higher. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.53% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -11 bps at 4.89%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -7 bps at 2.36% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.64, down -10 bps from this this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate down -1 bp at 4.72%. The UST 10yr yield is down -11 bps at 4.24%.
EQUITIES RISE SHARPLY
The local equity market has risen another +1.5% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +2.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Wednesday up +5.0% in its opening trade. Hong Kong was +2.6% higher and Shanghai is up +1.8%. Singapore is up +0.7%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade up +0.1% (all before the TACO moment).
OIL PRICES FALL SHARPLY
American oil prices have fallen -US$19 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at US$95.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US16 at US$95/bbl.
CARBON MARKET QUIET
We are struggling to find transactions so far today on the secondary market, so that is the only reason the price is holding at $41.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD JUMPS
In early Asian trade, gold is higher US$4803/oz, up +US$153 from yesterday. Silver is up +US$3.5-50 USc at just on US$76/oz.
NZD JUMPS
The Kiwi dollar is up +100 bps from yesterday against the USD, now just on 58 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.5 and up 70 bps from yesterday. Globally, the USD has fallen -1.5% (DXY)
BITCOIN JUMPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,344 and up +4.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at just over +/- 3.7%.
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19 Comments
What kind of a crazy world do we live in ???
1) Trump does the biggest TACO and stops bombing Iran and throws his own 15 point peace plan in the bin, and accepts Iran's 10 point plan, which are all in their favour !!!
2) the markets are all up significantly, as if ceasefires had a history of leading to peace, Trump was consistent in his decisions, and the Middle East was stable, and as if the temporary reopening of the Hormuz Straight (under Iranian control with high passage fees), would magically resolve the shortage of many commodities of the last 6 weeks.
It's totally nuts IMO. What am I missing ???
Probably market manipulation Yves. It'll turn to crap again and then we'll go through the same process again, again.
You aren't missing anything at that level.
Spot on.
But we are witnessing a global upheaval - this is merely a symptom.
I don't get how its in Iran's favour? Its very much in the US's favour for the war to finish, they have already got what they wanted. And the US is making us pay for the damage by allowing the Hormuz Straight to be tolled.
What did they want?
Regime change, not so. Suspect uranium seized, not so. Straits of Hormuz, future passage guaranteed, not so. Anything else then ?
No, they haven't.
What planet are you on?
But as to getting us to pay - Trump was somewhat correct when he complained that we first-world satellites have been getting protection for nothing - we told ourselves essentially a lie. That lie was that those folk we were living high at the expense of (and that includes those who live atop of oil) were in social pain because of themselves. They weren't. Our agents kept them there.
That truth hurts, and many try very hard to avoid it.
Hey, our great great great grandparents' generation used advanced military technology to subjugate the savages to keep us in the lifestyle we are accustomed to.
15 years old and becoming more relevant:
Considering (hypothetically) the sanctions Iran has had to operate under will be lifted, and their frozen offshore assets will be liberated, and a new tolling revenue stream will be established.......that's a pretty big win in my book.
What's the US got out of it? P****d off allies that have been tipped into economic turmoil and compromised oil and gas infrastructure, much higher input costs for food production, military spending blow-out.....yeah a big win for the US.
Terrible analysis. The US is very much in trouble economically. It's economy is flat (zero job growth in a year), its corrupt (look at all the futures trades before announcements, guarantee its government or Trump profiting pre announcements), its got high inflation and no real economic growth and its borrowing like crazy. It's bond markets are up, which is unsustainable. Then the petro dollar is in trouble: Iran is demanding toll payments in Chinese RMB, that tells you something, the USD is being unseated, the petro dollar may very well be unwinding. You can't just get RMB like USD, so it is transacted in gold. China is essentially via gold trades setting the value of USD oil trades via gold, that's really not good for the petro dollar. This adds to the gulf states hedging away from the USD since 2022.
Trumps advisors will be screaming at him that its got to stop or the full unwinding of the petro dollar and US hegemony will occur quite quickly. It might be unstoppable now anyway. Think about this if you are a gulf state, you have irrational policies coming from the US which means they get bombed by Iran, challenging their security. The US can freeze USD trades at any point as well. With Israel guiding US policy in the region, they are in danger of being controlled by Israel, itself wanting to become the regional super power which will take your land and oil etc with the tacit backing of the US. This is vs the China/Russia bloc, who can't really project power in the region if they wanted
Looks at the peace plan:
- Complete cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen
- Complete and permanent cessation of the war on Iran with no time limit
- Ending all conflicts in the region in their entirety
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
- Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
- Full payment of compensation for reconstruction costs to Iran
- Full commitment to lifting sanctions on Iran
- Release of Iranian funds and frozen assets held by the United States
- Iran fully commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons
- Immediate ceasefire takes effect on all fronts immediately upon approval of the above conditions
The only thing that the US gets is the desire for them to not have nukes. That will come with inspections. ITS THE SAME THING that Trump tore up in 2016, but worse. Iran already had issued a fatwah against having nukes, it wasn't going to build them, only enough enrichment for nuclear energy. In response, the US has to be non aggressive, put up with compensation costs for the damage inflicted, release Iranian funds and lift all sanctions. That's worse than Obamas deal. Now they have to pay Iran, but with Iran accept USD? Iran is already tolling in RMB, they may just ask for payment in RMB or gold instead, further unseating USD global dominance.
This was potentially the straw that broke the camels back. I wouldn't be betting on the US now, its in real trouble.
One of the most sensible comments I have seen on ICNZ for some time.
No doubt the resident cosy club members, who literally live here on the job, posting constant word salad riddles, one-liners, and infantile banter, will not be happy.
The end of the petrodollar went into overdrive in June of 2025, when China backed the yuan with gold in their trading of energy with Saudi Arabia. Trump's Operation Epic F$%ckup, ie, going to war against Iran, turbocharged the already epic global dedollarisation trend.
This is not just the end of the petrodollar, the US dollar, and as such US dollar reserve currency status, but the beginning of the end of the entire 55-year-old fiat currency experiment.
The Iran war is not about Iran's weapons, or even about its resources. This is about an existential fight between the Western Hegemonic bloc and a completely new multipolar global financial architecture that will be based in the east, rather than Wall Street, Brussels, and the City of London.
It's a fight to the death between the East/RoW and the West. The so-called "ceasefire" was never a ceasefire. It was merely an agreement for the US and Iran to meet in Islamabad to discuss the possibility of a ceasefire. It was dead in the water before it even began.
The only reason the Iranians agreed to meet was because China leaned on them to do so in the hope of avoiding a nuclear escalation and also to protect their huge investments in Iran, including the New Silk Road, which is an integral part of the BRICS+ multipolar project.
A stretch of the railway, built by the Chinese was bombed. It was paid for by the Chinese, inside Iran, part of the New Silk Road, and formed one of the Chinese corridors linking Western China to Iran, then further through to Turkey and Europe.
Bottom line, China, in essence, was bombed in Iran. This is immensely serious. It makes a tragic joke out of the euphoria of the proposed ceasefire, as the entire concept was scuttled on day one.
On the same day, Israel bombed the agreement and showed that both Israel and the US were lying through their teeth. Lebanon was part of the deal. Then the White House and Netanyahu stated it wasn't. Israel went on a rampage all across Lebanon, killing a lot of people - even downtown Beirut was bombed - completely nuts.
People can't see what's going on because there isn't a recent historical precedent and they don't want to see how quickly these things happen. The pound lost its global reserve currency status in less than a month. It might be a bit longer for the US, but all the signs are there that they are deep in trouble. Next up will be countries insulating themselves against the USD (selling their holdings and getting more holdings of other currencies), that will accelerate the problem, then bond markets go feral and hyperinflation. Once all this kicks in, the US will be deep underwater, they might act out though and try to take things with their over powered military. But likely they will have to bring their military home as they won't be able to afford fuel/parts etc.
The US could pull out of this and keep the status quo, but they are going to have to go back to basics, reassure everyone they won't go crazy again and go back to their knitting. But I wouldn't bet on that with Trump in the whitehouse trashing all norms.
What are you missing, Yvil?
Well, perhaps this... you said... "...the temporary reopening of the Hormuz Straight (under Iranian control with high passage fees..."
Nothing has changed on that score - the straits remained open for friendly nations approved by the IRGC, with cargo paid for in approved currencies, plus a toll payment levied as well.
Also, the so-called "ceasefire" is BS.
All that exists so far is an agreement for the US and Iran to meet in Islamabad, Pakistan, to discuss what I regard as a faint POSSIBILITY of a ceasefire.
The starting point is Iran's 10-point plan. IMO, the US has minimal leverage in this meeting, and as such, any ceasefire is still a long way off. The 8 points I can find include...
#1 A commitment to non-aggression.
#2 Continued Iranian control of the Hormuz Straits. Highly unlikely because the White House stated today that the ceasefire would only happen if Iran fully opens the strait. Of course, it is already open anyway, as I mentioned above.
#3 US to accept Iran's right to uranium enrichment.
#4 The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.
#5 Termination of all resolutions to the UN Council and the IAEA Board of Governors.
#6 Payment of compensation to Iran for damage caused in this war. These payments are not defined. - (Will this just be in the form of the toll imposed, or will it also include the billions of dollars of damage the US has done to Iran, during this war, not to mention the more than $1trillion the US's illegal sanctions have cost Iran over the years?)
#7 Withdrawal of all US troops from the ME region's military bases.
#8 Cessation of war on all fronts. This would have to include Israel's war on Lebanon as well. Also, the US wouldn't be able to simply redeploy military assets to Israel either.
Interestingly, Italy's PM, Malonie, is allegedly already en-route to Tehran to meet with officials to try to secure passage of Iranian oil through Hormuz, in an effort to save Italy's economy. This could well be a precursor to a procession of countries approaching Iran, cap in hand, for a lucrative deal.
And so far, it looks to me as though Iran rocks up at the card game in Islamabad with a Royal Flush, and Trump's idiots with a pathetically embarrassing pair of 2's.
Personally, I am not holding my breath for a ceasefire, unless of course Admin #47 completely reinvents itself over the next 2-3 days... pigs may fly as well fly too... one in particular.
Cheers
Col
PS I didn't include any links or sources, as the resident cosy-club automatically deems them all to be Russian assets anyway. Kind of hard to win - when I don't include a source, I am accused of spinning unsubstantiated crap.
I sometimes wonder why I bother to post, let alone pay the sub, which allows me to comment.
Depends if you're after a discussion or soapbox. You seem to enjoy the attention though, otherwise you wouldn't keep bringing it up.
There's a few lists of 10 points floating around. The gist of them is pretty similar.
Knowing Trump he'll obfuscate reparations with "look how much more you can earn trading openly", or some such.
There are many other nations in the region that rely on safe passage through the Straits. The majority of which for centuries have not been aligned with Iran, in fact, more the opposite. Would suggest that faction is hardly amenable to Iran continuing to lord it over them, hold them to ransom in other words. The implications of that, have hardly been set in motion, but the relative submissions to the UN Security Council do offer quite a clue.
Foxglove, you said... "Would suggest that faction is hardly amenable to Iran continuing to lord it over them, hold them to ransom in other words."
If I understand your comment, then Brian Berletic in the link below answers that question for you at ~25:00...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGaKAQYcQ5o
...quoted...
"You have a country that openly desires global primacy. You are not going to get that by outcompeting the rise of the multipolar world. They are going to achieve this by dragging the multipolar world down - how do you do that? By crippling the global economy.
And so in a lot of ways, this has benefited the US. V President, J D Vance, can say all he wants, or that that's all we care about, even as the NYT admits that the US military and CIA are sinking tankers of the "shadow fleet" - American and European proxies are seizing ships - so they are doing their own blockade of shipping all around the globe - off the coast of Venezuela, they are openly doing it.
And then they are complaining about the Strait of Hormuz. Again, it is more narrative - it's more political theatre - it's more about also retroactively justifying the war, because as you pointed out, as everyone has pointed out, the strait was completely open until the US launched this war.
If that's all you cared about, you shouldn't have launched a war of aggression based on another pack of "weapons of mass destruction" lies. They shouldn't have done that - the strait could have remained open, if that's what you really cared about."
I guess this sets precedent that the CCP can impose a toll on the south china sea?
There's only maybe 4 countries that have serious long range navies, and yeah the precedent now is trade routes are open for piracy or extortion.
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