Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB raised its one year TD rate to 3.90%, a market-leading level. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
CONSTRUCTION COSTS RISE
Residential construction costs are on the rise as building activity picks up modestly. They were rising even before the latest fuel price hikes kicked in, according to the Cordell Construction Cost Index
RISING FROM PULSE, FALLING FROM THE LAST GDT
The overnight dairy auction brought a headline decline of -3.4% in USD terms, but that is only a -0.8% in NZD terms. But actually things were better than this because these changes are from the prior full auction result three weeks ago. Today's results area actually gains from last week's dairy Pulse events for most items, including both SMP and WMP. The big drop however came for butter (-8.1%) and Mozzarella (-6.2%), both items that don't feature at the Pulse events. So, overall, today's dairy event is really one where prices have stabilised over the past few weeks. This is so, even though global dairy markets seem well-supplied from many sources.
ANZ SEES HIGHER PAYOUT
ANZ has raised its current season payout forecast to $9.85/kgMS, which is now the highest of the bank analysts.
DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
ON HOLD. NERVOUS ABOUT INFLATION
As expected, the RBNZ held its OCR unchanged at 2.25% in today's review, but warns of possible 'decisive' action in future. They forecast annual inflation will spike to 4.2% in the June quarter and warns that medium-term inflationary pressure will depend on the extent to which higher costs influence price and wage-setting behaviour by firms and workers in the economy.
NZX50 JUMPS AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.6% so far today. It is heading for a +4.2% weekly rise, and down -2.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +11.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up another +1.9% so far today. Also higher are Freightways, AirNZ, Stride, and Auckland Airport strength; weakness are seen in Turners, Heartland, Kathmandu and Channel Infrastructure.
SOCIAL SCAM MEDIA
The FMA is warning consumers about an increasing number of scams using fake news articles featuring prominent politicians and business leaders to entice consumers to invest in fake trading platforms. Being used are in this way are The current wave features clickbait headlines claiming to have information that authorities don’t want revealed. Individuals impersonated using deepfakes include Winston Peters, Kiwibank CEO Steve Jurkovich, and Westpac NZ CEO Catherine McGrath. "But the scammers continuously switch the identities they’re impersonating, so stories may still be fake if they feature a different individual,” they warn. Meta/Facebook is the preferred way to deliver such scams, mainly because Meta is reluctant to take them down - although they do when officials press.
FUEL UPDATE
This is the latest update on the fuel situation from MBIE. There will be another update released on Monday.
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 28.3 | 23.7 | 27.9 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 12 | 33.0 | 25.7 | 25.2 |
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 27.2 | 17.5 | 25.5 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 4 | 3.2 | 8.2 | 1.2 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 12 | 31.5 | 25.8 | 23.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 | |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 29.3 | 21.6 | 22.1 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 6 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 11.4 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 10 | 25.1 | 22.2 | 12.6 |
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 | |
| previously reported | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel | |
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 | |
| previously reported | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel | |
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
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NEWCOMER BUYING LOCK FINANCE
Runway, a new non-bank lender which features ex-ASB Head of Capital Markets & Advisory Paul Booth and former Infratil and Telecom executive Marko Bogoievski, says it's buying invoice and receivables finance specialist Lock Finance. Runway says the deal gives it an established operating platform, an existing loan book, long-standing broker and customer relationships, and deep working-capital expertise. Lock Finance’s Peter Goodfellow is "reinvesting alongside the founders of Runway."
TACO, GIANT MESSY EDITION
Without evidence, Trump has claimed Iran has backed down and will ceasefire "for two weeks". Ships are likely to pass through the Strait of Hormuz now, after paying Iran's toll (they say these will be used to reconstruct their infrastructure). Nothing else seems agreed. Israel and Iran are still exchanging missile attacks. The overall situation is now worse than six weeks ago when this crisis was first stage managed. Certainly the inflation pressures they delivered will linger for years. But there is a substantial short-term relief rally underway now in most financial markets.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be modestly higher. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.53% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -11 bps at 4.89%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -7 bps at 2.36% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.64, down -10 bps from this this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate down -1 bp at 4.72%. The UST 10yr yield is down -11 bps at 4.24%.
EQUITIES RISE SHARPLY
The local equity market has risen another +1.5% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +2.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Wednesday up +5.0% in its opening trade. Hong Kong was +2.6% higher and Shanghai is up +1.8%. Singapore is up +0.7%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade up +0.1% (all before the TACO moment).
OIL PRICES FALL SHARPLY
American oil prices have fallen -US$19 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at US$95.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US16 at US$95/bbl.
CARBON MARKET QUIET
We are struggling to find transactions so far today on the secondary market, so that is the only reason the price is holding at $41.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD JUMPS
In early Asian trade, gold is higher US$4803/oz, up +US$153 from yesterday. Silver is up +US$3.5-50 USc at just on US$76/oz.
NZD JUMPS
The Kiwi dollar is up +100 bps from yesterday against the USD, now just on 58 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.5 and up 70 bps from yesterday. Globally, the USD has fallen -1.5% (DXY)
BITCOIN JUMPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,344 and up +4.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at just over +/- 3.7%.
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9 Comments
What kind of a crazy world do we live in ???
1) Trump does the biggest TACO and stops bombing Iran and throws his own 15 point peace plan in the bin, and accepts Iran's 10 point plan, which are all in their favour !!!
2) the markets are all up significantly, as if ceasefires had a history of leading to peace, Trump was consistent in his decisions, and the Middle East was stable, and as if the temporary reopening of the Hormuz Straight (under Iranian control with high passage fees), would magically resolve the shortage of many commodities of the last 6 weeks.
It's totally nuts IMO. What am I missing ???
Probably market manipulation Yves. It'll turn to crap again and then we'll go through the same process again, again.
You aren't missing anything at that level.
Spot on.
But we are witnessing a global upheaval - this is merely a symptom.
I don't get how its in Iran's favour? Its very much in the US's favour for the war to finish, they have already got what they wanted. And the US is making us pay for the damage by allowing the Hormuz Straight to be tolled.
What did they want?
Regime change, not so. Suspect uranium seized, not so. Straits of Hormuz, future passage guaranteed, not so. Anything else then ?
No, they haven't.
What planet are you on?
But as to getting us to pay - Trump was somewhat correct when he complained that we first-world satellites have been getting protection for nothing - we told ourselves essentially a lie. That lie was that those folk we were living high at the expense of (and that includes those who live atop of oil) were in social pain because of themselves. They weren't. Our agents kept them there.
That truth hurts, and many try very hard to avoid it.
Hey, our great great great grandparents' generation used advanced military technology to subjugate the savages to keep us in the lifestyle we are accustomed to.
15 years old and becoming more relevant:
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