Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Xceda has raised rates, including now with a 4% rate for less than 1 year, and a 5% rate for 5 years. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
NO RENT INFLATION
Auckland's largest rental agency says more properties are being rented in the Queen City but rents aren't rising, and they are seeing some landlords not increasing rents to retain existing tenants.
EXPANDING WITH WORRYING SIGNALS
The BNZ/BusinessNZ factory PMI held in expansion in March, just slightly less than in February. But the detail shows a lot of this was driven by inventory expansion, as deliveries sank sharply from their average levels. New orders held up, but perhaps trying to lock in pre-inflated pricing that is sure to come.
DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
GOING AFTER ANOTHER 25 RELATED COMPANIES
The FMA says it is going to try and liquidate more of Bernard Whimp's Chance Voight companies.
NZX50 FADES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.6% so far today. Enthusiasm is leaking away as the session develops although it is still heading for a +2.6% weekly rise. but is down -2.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +7.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a sharpish -3.0% so far today. Tower, Port of Tauranga, Genesis and Stride lead the few gainers but Gentrack, Summerset, F&P Healthcare and Serko lead the main decliners.
UNDER PRESSURE
Livestock markets have remained oddly stable over the past few weeks, despite the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, especially from fertiliser, fuel and freight costs for farmers and processors alike. Lamb returns are reflecting lower schedule offers. But although beef returns got those last week, they didn't this week. Essentially, good demand from the US underpins this part of the industry.
EXPECTED & UNEXPECTED REACTIONS
And it is probably worth noting that the day of record for the Fonterra capital return was yesterday, April 9. The public FCG share price fell sharply today to reflect that (down from $6.20/share to $4.12 now). But the farmer-shareholder FSF shares barely missed a beat (still at $8.40/share).
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THE AUSSIE LABOUR HIRE SECTOR
In Australia, they have just released some interesting data on the labour hire sector. Over there as at December 2025, 351,000 Aussies had a job in Labour supply services, and for 297,800 (85%) it was their main job. 2.3% of all employed people had a job in Labour supply services in December 2025. 68% of labour hire workers worked full-time (August 2024). 74% of them did not have paid leave entitlements, and 26% would prefer to work more hours (August 2024).
NO CHANGE
The Korean central bank kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. They have an inflation date of 2.2% but expect this to rise in the current environment.
MODEST INFLATION
China said its CPI inflation rate was +1.0% in March from a year ago, a smaller rise than expected and lower than the February +1.3% rate (which was a three year high). Food prices only rose +0.3% year-on-year, restrained by pork and fresh vegetables. Beef prices were up +7.8% from a year ago, lamb prices up +6.8%. Dairy product prices fell -0.7% on the same basis.
FIRST NON-PANDEMIC PPI INFLATION IN 7 YEARS
China also released its producer price data today which shows them suddenly out of deflation, with PPI up +0.5% from a year ago in March, the first time since September 2022, and prior to the pandemic distortion, the first time since early 2019.
STILL MODEST
In Japan, they said their March PPI inflation ran at +2.6%, about average over the past twelve months, and off the unusually low February +2.1% level.
SWAP RATES STAY UP
Wholesale swap rates are likely to have held up after yesterday's big jump, perhaps adding another +1 bp today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.53% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.95%. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.41% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74%, back up +10 bps from this this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +7 bps at 4.70%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 4.29%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market has fallen -0.8% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Friday up +1.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is +0.6% higher and Shanghai has opened up +0.9%. (China is having a 'good war' so far.) Singapore is up a minor +0.1%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade up +0.6%.
OIL PRICES TURN BACK UP
American oil prices have risen +US$3 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at US$98.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US1.50 at US$96.50/bbl.
CARBON MARKET JUMPS BACK INTO LIFE
There has been surprisingly robust trading volumes today on the secondary market, and the price has risen with it, up +$2 to $45/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is higher at US$4749/oz, up +US$34 from yesterday. Silver is up +US$2 USc at just on US$75.50/oz.
NZD ENDS WEEK HIGHER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62 and up +10 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN FIRM
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,972 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.
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8 Comments
Coinbase is the first crypto exchange to secure an Australian Financial Services Licence with a retail derivatives authorization.
This is interesting. The Aussie banks have been fighting the crypto industry hard and preventing their own customers from sending fiat to exchanges. And given that the licence authority lies with ASIC, it makes you wonder what the Game of Mates is up to. Perhaps they believe Aussies won't take the bait and gamble like degenerates as they do with pokies, sports betting, and the Ponzi.
Will also be interesting to see if Aotearoans are allowed to enter the casino - the major Aussie exchanges allow it, even though the barriers have been appearing with banks blocking NZD transfers.
https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-australia-receives-afsl-licence
Aussie mortgage fraud worries balloon to $3b as banks remark their homework. My reckon is that $3b could be a drop in the ocean.
The potential exposures indicate deep and ingrained issues within the home loan market, and the time for a concerted industry response is now. Across the major banks and Macquarie, loans identified as suspicious or fraudulent so far have swelled to about $3 billion, people with knowledge of the investigations told this columnist on the condition of anonymity.
Fingers pointed at the Chinese and Middle Eastern communities. My reckon is that the Ponzi is also a safe space for money laundering.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/mortgage-fraud-worries…
There definitely seemed to be a cultural shift when it came to mortgages. I remember being terrified of borrowing too much when I first bought a home. Erring on the side of caution was the name of the game back in the 20th century. But then came this notion of borrowing to the max, of going all in. This wasn't the traditional Kiwi way. It happened all over the Anglosphere, everywhere, all at once. This drove up house prices with a promised of quick riches. Gone were the days when you would inevitably lose money if you had to sell within two years or so. I'd say the banks, brokers and agents all bought into this game. Creative calculations and the turning of blind eyes has led to many finding themselves facing disaster.
"I'd say the banks, brokers and agents all bought into this game"
Shouldn't that be, created this game? Well politicians, economists and bankers anyhow. Brokers and agents the enablers.
Actually, most people don't know how to exit, once they realise.
I get that - I spent a life not owing, doing without, or doing it some other way (off grid, for example; planting trees for firewood and a garden for food).
Most folk don't amass the skills, many more have partners not prepared to shift even a smidge. Seeing the need for planting a garden, tends to not be possible if painted nails are important to you.
As Zach concludes it changed fundamentally and psychologically. Up until Rogernomics home ownership housing had been a dedicated priority of NZ governments. Finance came courtesy of State Advances, Trustee Savings Banks and Buiding Societies. The then trading banksoperated in a strict lending corset regulated by the RBNZ, and were barked from mortgages except in the seventies they had some limited activity by being allowed to operate their own savings banks. Mid 1980 the lid came off, the trading banks entered the market, open slather lending roared into action and residential housing became just another lucrative business, thus the ideals and avenues of attainable housing for the average Joe Blow family, was blown away. Ironically it soon became apparent that the banks, released from the corset, didn’t actually know the basics of financiing, resulting in failure such as the BNZ.
In other news, beer’s still beer. Cheers ears.
The mighty Chris Joye says we should be preparing for the mother of all default cycles.
The last time the central banks hit their price stability targets was more than half a decade ago. At some point, their inflation-fighting bona fides will seriously erode. It is probably happening right now.
This is a nightmare scenario for the monetary policy mandarins: expectations of higher inflation will feed into wage claims that precipitate a wage-price spiral. The endgame could be the double-digit inflation rates experienced in the early 1980s following the late 1970s oil price shock.
This could force the RBA’s cash rate to 5 per cent or, heaven forbid, beyond. In the absence of politicians having a come-to-Jesus moment and balancing their books, the only solution will be a searing recession to destroy demand and get inflation under control. That would mean a massive increase in defaults and insolvencies, which would be a disaster for marginal borrowers.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/prepare-for-the-mother-of-al…
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